In other words, luck. And not a thing to do with craps in a thread devoted exclusively to craps.Quote: Wizardofnothing
Sancho I make money at casinos but not through dice or a system just simple ap plays using games or some other method which mathematically has a certain predetermined edge in my favor
You are 100% correct, that is why this stuff is so hard, that is why you need to
only play on tables that fit your shot, that is why you need a couple of shots and
that is why you need to be able to read your dice to make adjustments in the
difference your shot may reveal from day to day.
I agree with one thing, if I were selling books or tapes or teaching a class, I should
have to prove that what ever I want money for is worth something...but i am not
asking for anything, I am sharing the results of my play.,... end of story.
But yes I would like to play some day...
In bowling, rolling strikes usually means hitting the pocket between the 1 and 3 pins. I've thrown a few strikes where I miss the headpin but the ball knocks the 3 backwards and somehow later the 4 falls *forward* into the 2 and then into the 1, knocking it over from behind. Yes, that counts as a strike. But no, it's not a skilled shot, it's not what I was going for, and most of the time when you miss the headpin it's not a strike at all.Quote: DeMango
Let me help out the extreme poster here. You pick up a pair of dice and set on the 1/6 axis. The following results, out of 36 possible outcomes, are considered on axis: 22,23,24,25,33,34,35,32,44,45,42,43,55,52,53,54. I count 16 results. Help me out, oh extreme one, what is, in percentage, 16 divided by 36? But if, I'm thinking a Jordan-Byrd commercial, the dice bounce off a dealer, hit a stick, ricochet off the wood and land on a 4,2.......yup that's on axis. Happens every million rolls or so, but hey, it is what it is!
The same is true for dice but the probabilities are very different. Missing the headpin in bowling means you almost never strike, probably far less than 1% of the time. But missing the axis in dice throwing means that you still have a 44.4% chance of seeing both dice show one of the four non-axis faces. It's a matter of degree, and that's why making the distinction is so important. If you throw the dice carefully and they stay on axis throughout the toss and gently come to rest at or near the back wall, that's a successful on axis throw. (Have you ever done this?) If you throw the dice less carefully and they tumble sideways, hop off the table, or do anything else,, you didn't keep the dice on axis. It's really that simple. The dice may still end up on a desired result -- just like the accidental bowling strikes I rolled, but 44.4% of the time instead of less than 1% -- but that desired result wasn't due to your skill. That was due to sheer random luck.
Are you really saying that you can't see the difference between luck and skill, and that you don't understand why it's important to distinguish between an intentional result and an accidental one?
I think that's a good start, but it's also important to track the results of the throw according to the intended effect (not intended outcome). If the intended effect of the throw is to keep the 1s and 6s facing toward the sides of the table (that is, keeping the dice rotating on axis) and the 1s or 6s actually do that, it's a successful throw. Otherwise it's not -- regardless of the final numbers. Combined with the initial assessment of the throw as the dice leave the hand, you'll then have a dataset that you can analyze for non-uniform results.Quote: beachbumbabs
Methodology I think would prove something:
Start with noting exactly what sets you will use and what you intend them to do. Take a buddy you trust with you to the casino, because all tables perform differently; your results on your crap table don't matter in this.
Your buddy is your bookkeeper. Put him at the table where he can see your sets (and knows what he's looking at). He notes which set you're using on each roll.
As you release the dice (the LAST point you have any influence) you say "yes" or "no" immediately, before you know the result. You MUST be honest, as you're the only one who knows if you got the intended movement, loft, fingerspin, whatever. Your buddy makes the note. This would create both a control set (the no's) and a proof set (the yesses). Your buddy then notes the roll result by faces (including orientation of the face if that's pertinent to your roll set).
It's not an insult when I note that your methodology isn't sound. It's as if you said 0.5 + 0.6 = 0.11. It's just wrong. I'm not insulting you by pointing out that out.Quote: dicesitter
Now I can understand math here, he has a personal stake in this because if
anything I say is correct, nothing he says is. But you.... see now that is a different
story now, if you don't think the following is intended to be an insult
But why is it that every time I ask you to quantify anything, you get huffy and start claiming insults? Babs is right -- the best way to shut me up is to prove me wrong. So do it. Unlike many of the dice-setting faithful, I'm perfectly willing to alter my opinion based on relevant new evidence. Show me some. Demonstrate that you've ever controlled the dice at all, ever. Why is this a hard question? "Have you ever actually kept the dice on axis?" When you throw the dice, what percentage of the time do the faces on the sides stay on the sides from the time the dice leave your hand until they come to rest?
If you won't answer this question, why not?
Don't be evasive, answer the question. Quantify your skill vs. how often you're getting lucky. If all you're going to do is say "total nonsense" or "that's an insult" then I'll take it as evidence that you don't know the difference.Quote: dicesitter
Unless the "nonsense" accusation was directed to my claim of having thrown those accidental strikes. I can't prove it happened, you'll just have to take my word for it, but bowlers call it a "garbage hit" so it's definitely a known entity. You should learn to distinguish between a garbage throw and a proper throw too.
I think that's a good start, but it's also important to track the results of the throw according to the intended effect (not intended outcome).
I actually laughed out loud on this one. Riddle me this oh extreme one: Does the casino pay you on intended effect or or actual outcome?