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dicesitter
dicesitter
Joined: Jan 17, 2013
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March 7th, 2016 at 8:50:44 PM permalink
Ontariodealer


Hey I am on your side on this one. I have taken a number of classes and always
wanted an answer to that same question.

Not getting one, I decided to form my own opinion on this based on the folks
I played with or saw play. I have a couple of friends that win way more than they
lose. I don't know what they did 10 or 20 years ago.
I have been told a lot of things, and to be honest some I think is true, some not,
but I wont indicate anything to you that I don't believe in.

For me, well I have played since I was 25, and I am almost 70, I have had some
decent years, but mostly I lost . I don't think I could make up for what I lost, but
I do have a goal. I have tried to do this two times before and failed in grand
style. Now that I have confidence in what I am doing I have tried again and
am about 70% to the first part of the goal. I should make that by this fall. The
second part would be easier and if I get to that point, and would erase much of
my lifetime lose and the third leg of the goal would put me ahead.

I have never been anywhere near this point before so I need to pay attention
to my play. It would surely be the kind of thing I could answer your question with.

dicesetter
MathExtremist
MathExtremist
Joined: Aug 31, 2010
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March 7th, 2016 at 11:23:02 PM permalink
Quote: dicesitter

I provided my opinion and he returns not with anything sensible, but an insult which
appears to compare my shot and those I play with, with a shot that
bounces all over the table, hits people in the chest and off every chip stack on the table.

This is not the reply of a well educated scholar of any kind, but rather the reply of a
simpleminded teenager seething at his inability to shake my confidence in what I am
doing.

Ad hominem attacks on my intelligence are not responsive. You have suggested that you can control the dice, but you and the "dice community" have also admitted to using improper techniques to record and analyze results.

From what I've read, if the dice come to rest on 4,2 after a careful throw (starting with 1 and 6 on each axis) that comes to rest gently against the back wall and stays on axis the entire time, you'd record "4,2" in your notes or some equivalent. And if the dice come to rest on 4,2 after the dice bounce off someone's hands, a shirt, and a passing carrier pigeon holding a flask of Jim Beam, you'd still record "4,2" in your notes.

That lack of detail means you can't tell, later on, whether either, both, or neither of the "4,2" entries in your notes were the result of a skilled throw. You only focus on results, not technique. As a result you cannot quantify your skill or your edge, and therefore can produce no sound betting strategy to take advantage of your supposed skill. That explains your results: you're mostly break-even which is consistent with not having the edge. If you actually do have meaningful skill, your results reflect that you don't actually know how to bet in order to take advantage of it. It doesn't do any good to practice throwing technique if you don't know what you should be trying to throw.

If I'm wrong about your results, show me. Show everyone. Answer the questions I posed previously: On your previous trip, how many total throws did you have and how many skilled throws did you have (on axis throughout)? If you can't answer the "skilled throws" question it's because your notes aren't sufficient. If you're insulted by that, don't blame me -- take better notes.

Now where'd that pigeon go?
Last edited by: MathExtremist on Mar 7, 2016
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
Wizardofnothing
Wizardofnothing
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March 8th, 2016 at 2:58:15 AM permalink
Sancho I make money at casinos but not through dice or a system just simple ap plays using games or some other method which mathematically has a certain predetermined edge in my favor
No longer hiring, donít ask because I wonít hire you either
beachbumbabs
Administrator
beachbumbabs
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March 8th, 2016 at 4:31:13 AM permalink
I hate this laptop. Had a long write-up and my palm hit the touchpad and dumped it. Hate this laptop.

Shorter version: Dicesetter: you continue to mistake questioning your methods for personal insults. They're not. Please take a step back and see it for what it is.

Methodology I think would prove something:

Start with noting exactly what sets you will use and what you intend them to do. Take a buddy you trust with you to the casino, because all tables perform differently; your results on your crap table don't matter in this.

Your buddy is your bookkeeper. Put him at the table where he can see your sets (and knows what he's looking at). He notes which set you're using on each roll.

As you release the dice (the LAST point you have any influence) you say "yes" or "no" immediately, before you know the result. You MUST be honest, as you're the only one who knows if you got the intended movement, loft, fingerspin, whatever. Your buddy makes the note. This would create both a control set (the no's) and a proof set (the yesses). Your buddy then notes the roll result by faces (including orientation of the face if that's pertinent to your roll set).

After a few thousand rolls (might take a year or two to build a dataset, as well as a casino willing to put up with this stuff), you might have enough data to be able to say you've affected the roll, if you have. As well as somewhat dampening out the variance of any particular session, by defining each roll as intentional or random. But anything recorded after the results are known is tainted; it must be a freeze-frame immediately after release. Anything done at a different table, even within the same casino, is a separate data-set (can be used in an overall review, but must be tracked separately). You have to isolate the variable you're trying to affect by eliminating as many other variables as possible.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
Artemis
Artemis
Joined: Nov 20, 2010
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March 8th, 2016 at 7:25:20 AM permalink
The above poster (BBB) has some good suggestions for DiceSetter. I get another suggestion. Use a headcam (see a sample below). Record the actions. Post the results onto youtube just like Mr. Clunkmess's video.




This HeadCam should be hidden under a baseball cap with a peeping hole.
I'm OK with Corps which pick and choose clienteles. Both insurance companies and casinos have the right to pick and choose customers. They may keep profitable ones and kicked out the rest. But, I'm not OK with a casino supervisor who says counting cards... is like stealing food from a buffet (a foodlifting offense), or video-taping a movie in a cinema (a piracy offense).
dicesitter
dicesitter
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March 8th, 2016 at 7:36:52 AM permalink
beachbumbabs


Look I have provided lots and lots of data, I provided video of a shot that
is much different than most doing (exactly what I said it did).


Now I can understand math here, he has a personal stake in this because if
anything I say is correct, nothing he says is. But you.... see now that is a different
story now, if you don't think the following is intended to be an insult

"Certainly it makes no difference if you're recording the wrong data. If you think dice bouncing off someone's shirt, off of chips, or bouncing all over the place is a "skilled throw" just because the dice finally come to rest on one of the four non-axis faces then we'll just have to agree to disagree. But you're wrong. :)

then what more is there to say.

Beach this is a reflection on you and your judgment. Like this nonsense

As you release the dice (the LAST point you have any influence) you say "yes" or "no" immediately, before you know the result. You MUST be honest, as you're the only one who knows if you got the intended movement, loft, fingerspin, whatever. Your buddy makes the note. This would create both a control set (the no's) and a proof set (the yesses). Your buddy then notes the roll result by faces (including orientation of the face if that's pertinent to your roll set).

After a few thousand rolls (might take a year or two to build a dataset, as well as a casino willing to put up with this stuff), you might have enough data to be able to say you've affected the roll, if you have. As well as somewhat dampening out the variance of any particular session, by defining each roll as intentional or random. But anything recorded after the results are known is tainted; it must be a freeze-frame immediately after release. Anything done at a different table, even within the same casino, is a separate data-set (can be used in an overall review, but must be tracked separately). You have to isolate the variable you're trying to affect by eliminating as many other variables as possible.

I am not obligated to you in order than I can have an opinion about what I am doing.
What your asking of me to put forth to justify my opinion is no different than i make
you justify your opinion by going,around the country and watching the best players
play and you document a few thousand rolls from each of them to prove that you or
math is correct. See you feel your entitled to your opinion, without proof, yet I gave
you some and I am still not entitled.

I don't ask much, just a few thousand rolls recorded for Heavy, Howard, Superrick,
Dicepilot, Frank,Dom, Stckman, Set44, NO field five, Joe, Doc, Mr Finesse, Nick at
night and on and on. When your done, then come back and say well based on this
data, I am either believable or not.


dicesetter
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
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March 8th, 2016 at 7:56:30 AM permalink
Quote: dicesitter

Why can't you video a few thousands rolls on your table and show it's at least possible? You're practicing anyway and you have made videos before. That would put an end to all the skeptics. Then the focus could be on more important stuff.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
DeMango
DeMango
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March 8th, 2016 at 8:04:53 AM permalink
Let me help out the extreme poster here. You pick up a pair of dice and set on the 1/6 axis. The following results, out of 36 possible outcomes, are considered on axis: 22,23,24,25,33,34,35,32,44,45,42,43,55,52,53,54. I count 16 results. Help me out, oh extreme one, what is, in percentage, 16 divided by 36? But if, I'm thinking a Jordan-Byrd commercial, the dice bounce off a dealer, hit a stick, ricochet off the wood and land on a 4,2.......yup that's on axis. Happens every million rolls or so, but hey, it is what it is!
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
beachbumbabs
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beachbumbabs
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March 8th, 2016 at 8:43:44 AM permalink
Quote: dicesitter

beachbumbabs


But you.... see now that is a different
story now, if you don't think the following is intended to be an insult

"Certainly it makes no difference if you're recording the wrong data. If you think dice bouncing off someone's shirt, off of chips, or bouncing all over the place is a "skilled throw" just because the dice finally come to rest on one of the four non-axis faces then we'll just have to agree to disagree. But you're wrong. :)

then what more is there to say.



I don't think this was actually addressed to you; it was to whoever (demango?) said in response all that matters are results, when somebody brought up the question of the dice hitting something/someone. Still not an insult, as it questions the methodology, not you or anyone else personally. Wish you could see the difference.


Quote:

Beach this is a reflection on you and your judgment. Like this nonsense

As you release the dice (the LAST point you have any influence) you say "yes" or "no" immediately, before you know the result. You MUST be honest, as you're the only one who knows if you got the intended movement, loft, fingerspin, whatever. Your buddy makes the note. This would create both a control set (the no's) and a proof set (the yesses). Your buddy then notes the roll result by faces (including orientation of the face if that's pertinent to your roll set).

After a few thousand rolls (might take a year or two to build a dataset, as well as a casino willing to put up with this stuff), you might have enough data to be able to say you've affected the roll, if you have. As well as somewhat dampening out the variance of any particular session, by defining each roll as intentional or random. But anything recorded after the results are known is tainted; it must be a freeze-frame immediately after release. Anything done at a different table, even within the same casino, is a separate data-set (can be used in an overall review, but must be tracked separately). You have to isolate the variable you're trying to affect by eliminating as many other variables as possible.



I'm saying that most of the argument between you and ME is one of variables. You haven't isolated your influence from variables of different tables, obstacles, or variance itself. I suggested one way you might go about getting a more credible result, and fighting fire with fire.

Quote:

I am not obligated to you in order than I can have an opinion about what I am doing.
What your asking of me to put forth to justify my opinion is no different than i make
you justify your opinion by going,around the country and watching the best players
play and you document a few thousand rolls from each of them to prove that you or
math is correct. See you feel your entitled to your opinion, without proof, yet I gave
you some and I am still not entitled.

I don't ask much, just a few thousand rolls recorded for Heavy, Howard, Superrick,
Dicepilot, Frank,Dom, Stckman, Set44, NO field five, Joe, Doc, Mr Finesse, Nick at
night and on and on. When your done, then come back and say well based on this
data, I am either believable or not.



You are, and always have been, entitled to your opinion. However, you want your opinion to stand as proof, and yet your methodology is not precise enough to change opinion to proof. And you choose to be insulted when your methodology is questioned instead of either changing it or showing that it IS pertinent to your results. Believe it or not, I posted that as a way to help you shut ME up, by demonstrating scientific method rigorous and precise enough to use the results as you intend. You're free to disregard my suggestions, as always. :)
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
dicesitter
dicesitter
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March 8th, 2016 at 8:50:04 AM permalink
Axel


Why, these folks have not provided any proof at all showing some influence is
not possible, they have not tested the best folks in the country. the very idea
that we would consider a shot that bounces off the table, off a persons chest and
off every chip stack as a skilled shot shows their lack any understanding of this.

I have time and time again provided some data, I took time to make two
video's showing a shot that completely takes the alligator board out of play.

Now I understand this is silly, but I don't owe them that, I don't work for
free. They want a few thousand rolls from me to prove what I already know, fine
but then they should record a few thousand rolls of their own to compare to
or some of the other good players to prove their point.

In the mean time I am going to play tonight (smiling)

good luck with your play Axel

dicesetter

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