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MathExtremist
MathExtremist
Joined: Aug 31, 2010
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February 14th, 2016 at 4:57:11 PM permalink
Quote: dicesitter

MY first adjustment is to land the dice 3-4 inches further from the back wall. Next adjustment
is to change to a 3/v 2/v set which if I land on that access more than 70% of the time, I
will only have 2 ways to make a 7.

There are two ways to interpret this percentage. One is that you mean your percentage of axial-face avoidance is 70% or more, which is significantly greater than the random figure of 44.44%.

The other way to interpret that percentage is that 70% of the time, you keep the dice on axis intentionally, and the other 30% of the time the dice tumble and avoid the axis faces with the same 44.44% frequency as normal. That means the total percentage of axial-face avoidance is 44.44% * 30% + 70% = 83.33% (or 5 out of every 6 throws).

If you can achieve this, the 3-V set yields a significant positive edge on the passline, all inside place numbers, and a double-digit edge on the hard 6 and 8. But that's not the best way to bet, not by a long shot. For example, if you're missing axial faces 5 out of 6 rolls, the 3-V yields a double-digit negative edge on the field. With that level of control, there are other sets that give you a positive double-digit edge on the field. That's really where you'll make your money -- double-digit player edges on single-roll bets.

You've studied this for seven years, you have the ability to avoid the axial faces 70% of the time or more (compared to 44.44%), yet you don't know how to bet in order to maximize your winnings? That doesn't seem credible to me.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
DeMango
DeMango
Joined: Feb 2, 2010
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February 18th, 2016 at 8:49:19 AM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

Really??? Glass houses...stones...bueller? Anybody?

Cheeseheads are proud to be cheeseheads, so I'm letting this ride, but your post is dripping with disdain, and you are RIGHT on the line. Do not cross into insults, please.



The software here underlines, with red, all questionable spellings, including bueller. Spill was a sarcastic, deliberate mispilling on my part.

When we speak of throwing stones, please check your PM's, about a month ago, about a deliberate attack by one member about another out of the closet member. The silence in the last month or so is deafening.
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
TwoFeathersATL
TwoFeathersATL
Joined: May 22, 2013
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February 18th, 2016 at 11:21:19 AM permalink
Defiance is American, I think we may have invented it.
I'm trying to remember the term, I'm getting slow ( OK, slower than my old slow)
Got to go look it up now, back in a minute.....

Back, ....too lazy to find what I wanted, didn't look actually.
I'll go with 'Don't tread on me', that'll work for now.

Take that, all you authority figures in the world! ....;-)
Signed...rascal
Youuuuuu MIGHT be a 'rascal' if.......(nevermind ;-)...2F
dicesitter
dicesitter
Joined: Jan 17, 2013
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February 28th, 2016 at 5:18:23 PM permalink
I thought I posted this but cant find it.

Now I cant remember what I said


At any rate, Sue and I are back in Wisconsin, not to much worse for the journey.

It was the best casino trip we have taken, even better than the month in vegas
because Sue actually did ok on the slots and card games.

We hit about 13 casino's and I played 26 sessions.

26 sessions is about 6 months of play for me at home.

I came home ahead on craps, but barely. I guess when you play six months
worth of craps and are ahead that is better than random. However my
poor play cost me about $1000 which would have made the trip much
better. I ended the trip with a 7.8 SRR which if you would have said before I
left I would have that I would have thought the win would have been
much higher.

I hit a number of small fire bets and ATS wins, but never hit a 5 point fire bet
or the complete ATS.

I did meet a number of guys from the different craps schools and that
was fun, ran into Howard Rocknroller just after he hit the ATS bet for
a nice win.
Pretty much everything I believe about the game and shooting the dice
was what I saw. when I played well and my shot was on target I did
fine. When I played tired, played on tables that don't fit me or particularly
on the first day, I wanted to use my table top shot and I bet way more
than normal, and the shot was not good... i was stubborn and stayed
with it. When I made a change I would normally make much quicker
I was ok.

I bet way to much on others.

So my results were on me, when i played like a knucklehead it cost me, when
I played like a good player should player....I did very well.

I need to decide whether I want to be a player, or a good player.

dicesetter.
dicesitter
dicesitter
Joined: Jan 17, 2013
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March 2nd, 2016 at 11:21:58 PM permalink
Math

We just got back from a couple of sessions tonight.

I started with the 3v set and had an ok roll and finished with
a 6-1... three shorter rolls all ended in a 6-1 . I knew where
the 7's were coming from . new how the axis finish played
into this and changed to a set to hopefully take advantage
of me repeats.... had a very good 24 roll and made very decent
money

We left with a good profit and heading to a casino with an ATS
feature bet. I started with the same base set, had a 10 roll, couple
short rolls and all the 7's but one were 6/1......... I changed to a set
again to take advantage of that and had a 25 roll.

We colored up and had over $1000 in profit.

Now I understand none of this seems credible to you......

Just ask my bubby how it seems to him.


dicesetter
MrV
MrV
Joined: Feb 13, 2010
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March 3rd, 2016 at 12:36:31 AM permalink
Luck happens.

Congrats.
"What, me worry?"
eclectic
eclectic
Joined: Jan 3, 2016
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March 3rd, 2016 at 10:27:42 AM permalink
DS. Looks like you and the Mrs. had an enjoyable trip. And thank you for your reply to my question. A few observations. I read this on the forum somewhere before but I don't recall the poster. Everybody and his dog mentions the hardways set for avoiding the seven. I can't agree to the hardways set for this purpose and I just don't get it. Will somebody please explain to me exactly why it avoids the 7 because if on axis, the 7 has more ways of appearing; unlike the 3-v, 2-v or crossed sixes? Maybe it's because the shooter doesn't stay on axis then?

And, isn't making an adjustment to your set a convoluted way to justify a bad throw? Instead of making a set adjustment, wouldn't it make more sense to make an adjustment to your delivery mechanics? After all, isn't the idea to try an on axis throw? My thinking if that the dice don't land on my numbers, my throw is off in some way.

My angle, is to set for the all 7s set, and if both die are not on either a 2,3,4 or 5, my mechanics need changing: not the set.

Regards your landing tip, My understanding is to try and have the dice land 12-18 inches from the back wall. So, I don't understand how landing them 3 or 4 inches further out is working? (eg. 16-22 inches further?)

You mentioned discipline. Yes! Discipline is all about personal psychology and belief systems, another subject in itself.

Again, thank you for what I consider a meaningful dialog.
mdh
mdh
Joined: Feb 23, 2011
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  • Posts: 169
March 3rd, 2016 at 10:46:28 AM permalink
Quote: dicesitter

Math

We just got back from a couple of sessions tonight.

I started with the 3v set and had an ok roll and finished with
a 6-1... three shorter rolls all ended in a 6-1 . I knew where
the 7's were coming from . new how the axis finish played
into this and changed to a set to hopefully take advantage
of me repeats.... had a very good 24 roll and made very decent
money

We left with a good profit and heading to a casino with an ATS
feature bet. I started with the same base set, had a 10 roll, couple
short rolls and all the 7's but one were 6/1......... I changed to a set
again to take advantage of that and had a 25 roll.

We colored up and had over $1000 in profit.

Now I understand none of this seems credible to you......

Just ask my bubby how it seems to him.


dicesetter

You just described what happens at just about every craps session Ive ever had. Decent 10 roll. few short rolls and a good roll of 25 (not necessary in that order). The question is, were you on the numbers that happen to be falling in this session? With 1000 in profit, probably so. I dont think it had anything to do with any set change.
eclectic
eclectic
Joined: Jan 3, 2016
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March 3rd, 2016 at 11:54:02 AM permalink
ME wrote:

For example, if you're missing axial faces 5 out of 6 rolls, the 3-V yields a double-digit negative edge on the field. With that level of control, there are other sets that give you a positive double-digit edge on the field. That's really where you'll make your money -- double-digit player edges on single-roll bets.

I don't follow all of your explanations.

Can you please explain further about the best sets for a shooter with hypothetical DI? On the assumption of some DI, what in your opinion would be the best strategy for the highest risk/reward ratios?

Thank you for your insights.
dicesitter
dicesitter
Joined: Jan 17, 2013
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March 3rd, 2016 at 12:52:01 PM permalink
ECLECTIC


Excellent post.

Your right on some things here. The hard way set is not a set to avoid a 7. Any on axis
finish in the hard way set offers 4 ways to make a 7 in that set,,, 3/4 4/3 5/2/2/5.

Your right again when you say dice do not stay on axis the whole roll.

Here is the thing, what Math and Axel and MRv says makes sense, I understand
their position, I thought exactly like that for 37 years. I even thought exactly like that
for five of the years I worked on my shot. Until you understand or accept the relationship
between set and shot and set and 7 you will never agree with anything I say.

If I throw a 3v set and I have a consistent shot which most days I do, and I get a 6/1 seven
and I get a 6/1 7 and I get a 6/1 7....that's tells you my shot is not finishing in the 3/v set
position, the left die is rotating and the right die is finishing on axis. Now remember we
talked about the hardway set. On axis finish is a killer 4 ways to make a seven.. but!!!!
if one die is off the axis with is a 1 or a 6 and the other is a 2,3,4,5 is on.... it is most difficult
to make a 7.

Now this is not magic it wont happen all the time, but enough to make a profit
with it.

You had asked about changing your mechanics instead of the set. First we have to agree
that your shot has to be similar enough each time so the adjustments are effective. If your
mechanics are bad.. nothing will help. if they are ok, then ask yourself what tweek could you
possibly make to your mechanics every time you have a bad outing before you are so
lost you cant even roll. I don't think it is possible.

If I throw a poor shot I don't make any adjustments in the set it is a waste of time, if it is
that bad I go home. Now if I make a good shot time after time, I can adjust my set to that
result.

In terms of your shot being closer or further from the back wall, well you change the
distance they travel you change the numbers they land on. When I am talking about that
I mean your shot has to hit in a circle about the size of a poker chip for you to use distance
as a correction. (this is with parr/gtc) shot.

The very most important thing is for your shot to be repeatable...first ..before you attempt to
make any changes in set to obtain a result closer to what you need.

dicesetter

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