GamecoxJax
Joined: Jan 5, 2016
• Posts: 22
January 13th, 2016 at 4:19:45 PM permalink
How often does a shooter hit two points in a row. Not back to back throws, but set a point, eventually hit it, set another and repeat. Any way of figuring those odds? I am a low limit player, and like to use my winnings off my first point to get more action on the next set. Trying to figure how often that might happen.
ThatDonGuy
Joined: Jun 22, 2011
• Posts: 5369
January 13th, 2016 at 4:46:19 PM permalink
The probability that a point will be set and made is the sum of:
Set and make a 4: 1/12 x 1/3
Set and make a 5: 1/9 x 3/5
Set and make a 6: 5/36 x 5/11
Set and make a 8: 5/36 x 5/11
Set and make a 9: 1/9 x 3/5
Set and make a 10: 1/12 x 1/3
which is 52 / 165

The probability that, starting with a particular comeout, two points will be set and made in a row is 52/165 x 52/165 = 2704 / 27225, or about 1/10.07.
If a point is made, the probability that the next result will be a made point is 52/165, or about 31.5%.