18 yo's in a row (split-off)
Quote: teddysOh this is the best comparable statistic you've ever come up with Mike!
Thank you!
That was not a joke.
We all know he didn't REALLY see eighteen elevens in a row: that claimed observation stretches probability beyond the breaking point.
The question is: is he lying, or does he really think he saw it, and if so, what is the cause of that erroneous belief?
Either the assertion is correct (impossible, in the real world); knowingly false; or believed true by Alan (but demonstrably impossible).
Likely etiology for the third choice (false memory / false belief) could of course include some form of mental illness, some condition which causes such a delusion.
We can never really know the answer, which makes the claimant's credibility and motivation a focus of concern.
New thread. Okay.
Quote: AlanMendelsonIt really amazes me that my being at a table when a random shooter threw 18 yo's in a row has created such an uproar?
It happened. What's the problem?
The only problem was none of us -- there were three of us at the table -- even had a dollar bet on it and stood there like idiots.
How many of you would admit to standing there like an idiot the way I did? LOL
As one of my buddies told me -- and I wrote about this on my forum -- if there are odds for something to happen, it will happen.
Sure the odds are one in a gazillion... but it happened.
I only wish I could tell you I won so much money from it that I could take over the Powerball organization... but I won nothing.
Love Alan's work. Followed him for years. As we get older, as men, the second thing to go is our memory. I truly believe Alan saw 9 yos in a row but to no fault of his, his mind doubled it. That would bring the odds down to 1/2 a gazillion and the odds of his mind doubling the amount at his/our age are 1 in 10.. IMO
Bring it down to 6 and I will reluctantly agree that it is possible he saw it. Six in a row is about 1 in 34 million.Quote: mdsI truly believe Alan saw 9 yos in a row.
1/ 6 of diamonds as the up card four straight times in csp
2/ 4 straight hard 4's, then a number, then another hard 4.
3/ we were talking one day last year, whats the most you've seen a number rolled in a row....I answered 5 in a row,the seven many many times and the 9 twice (once by me) 10 min after our discussion a guy rolls 6 yo's in a roll.
Quote: WizardofnothingWizard I think Alan should lose the no insult protection as he has gone on record creating this same thread in his forum more or less insulting everyone on this forum
He didn't create it, it was a split off.
So even when you stay away from the forum for a few days, it finds you.
Quote: WizardofnothingHe still just yesterday made a comment on HIS FORUM insulting basically all wov memebers
You mean the thing questioning how much everyone really plays?
I hope that isn't the whole of his insult, considering people called him a psycho...
If you didn't read the stuff Axelwolf posted on false memories, it's very interesting. We all have a lot of them. It's pretty easy to implant one.
I mentioned in the other thread, I once got pocket aces three times in a row in hold em. I doubt that memory sometimes. It's kind of silly to pretend that you alone lack the normal vulnerabilities of the human mind to the point that a monkey would solve a rubiks cube long before your memory was faulty.
How are people supposed to react to such an assertion?
Quote: RigondeauxDid they, or did they say that it was more likely he was insane than that he saw 18 yos? Because it's also more likely that I'm insane.
If you didn't read the stuff Axelwolf posted on false memories, it's very interesting. We all have a lot of them. It's pretty easy to implant one.
I mentioned in the other thread, I once got pocket aces three times in a row in hold em. I doubt that memory sometimes. It's kind of silly to pretend that you alone lack the normal vulnerabilities of the human mind to the point that a monkey would solve a rubiks cube long before your memory was faulty.
How are people supposed to react to such an assertion?
Do the math
Express doubt
Be less insulting about it
Leave out psychiatric diagnosis either as a comment or an option in a poll
Quote: WizardofnothingHe still just yesterday made a comment on HIS FORUM insulting basically all wov memebers
So the 3 other people on his forum?
Come back soon ace/ we love your reports and they create a lot of interest here
Also, what's up with people announcing they are leaving the forum? Hey guys, the world DOES NOT revolve around you.
Oh, I want to announce that I will not visit the forum for the remainder of today, but will return tomorrow.
Anybody else?
Why the hell does anyone really care if you decide to tell us or not tell us you have decided to leave?
Not sure why people fret so much when they see an announcement of a departure--if it isn't worthy of a comment, ignore it.
Quote: RonCAnnounce your departure. Don't announce your departure.
Why the hell does anyone really care if you decide to tell us or not tell us you have decided to leave?
Not sure why people fret so much when they see an announcement of a departure--if it isn't worthy of a comment, ignore it.
right on
Mickeycrimm is on there!
But so is Rob Singer :(
AoS posted a TR.
I got a shoutout when I wrote there were only 3 people reading that forum anyway.
Quote: djatcJust took a look at Alan's forum:
Mickeycrimm is on there!
But so is Rob Singer :(
AoS posted a TR.
I got a shoutout when I wrote there were only 3 people reading that forum anyway.
See Mickey's drunk post the other night?
Quote: IbeatyouracesSee Mickey's drunk post the other night?
You mean the 5+ posts of drunkeness? I thought it was kinda funny. Everyone's talking about other stuff then mickey comes in like, "I'm the best damn gambler out 'n these neck'a'da woods, you hear me good? Ride the rails as long as a tough son of a b**** like me, but you'll never be me, you'll never see no one as grizzly as me. This here land is mine, and if you wan'it, you gon' have come kill me for it." or something like that.
Quote: RSYou mean the 5+ posts of drunkeness? I thought it was kinda funny. Everyone's talking about other stuff then mickey comes in like, "I'm the best damn gambler out 'n these neck'a'da woods, you hear me good? Ride the rails as long as a tough son of a b**** like me, but you'll never be me, you'll never see no one as grizzly as me. This here land is mine, and if you wan'it, you gon' have come kill me for it." or something like that.
I get more laughs reading stuff over there than I do watching a great comedy movie.
Quote: AyecarumbaHow does it compare to successfully making 18 passes in a row before a seven out?
Setting 18 points and hitting them all before a 7 out, only? Or would 7/11 on come out roll count toward that 18? What about 2/3/12 on come out roll.
Quote: IbeatyouracesSee Mickey's drunk post the other night?
I thought he threw Mickey out a while back.
Quote: BozI thought he threw Mickey out a while back.
Well, he's also banned Singer umpteen times also.
Quote: IbeatyouracesWell, he's also banned Singer umpteen times also.
I went over there to read that thread. Is it Mickey or someone trying to be a parody of Mickey? Hard to tell, but funny either way.
Yes, 7/11 and 2/3/12 would count coming out. The question is about the odds of setting 18 points and making all of them before a seven out.Quote: RSSetting 18 points and hitting them all before a 7 out, only? Or would 7/11 on come out roll count toward that 18? What about 2/3/12 on come out roll.
Quote: BozI thought he threw Mickey out a while back.
Mickey says he's been posting on VPfree for a while, but didn't mention Alan's forum. Seems like it could be him, but not sure. (Yeah, I hear from him from time to time.)
Quote: beachbumbabsGettin' a little "Lord of the Flies" in here, guys. I'm just sayin...
Lord of the Flies ... hmmm... little boys sorting out dominance? or just acting like little boys turned wild generally? or [symbolically] killing a pig and sticking the head on a stick that's drawing flies?
I think I'm going with the last one, the pig* being Alan, the head being the 18 yo claim, the stick being the moderators like yourself, and the flies being the posters keeping the thread alive!
*not meant to be an insult
Quote: odiousgambitLord of the Flies ... hmmm... little boys sorting out dominance? or just acting like little boys turned wild generally? or [symbolically] killing a pig and sticking the head on a stick that's drawing flies?
I think I'm going with the last one, the pig* being Alan, the head being the 18 yo claim, the stick being the moderators like yourself, and the flies being the posters keeping the thread alive!
*not meant to be an insult
I think there are times, when someone expresses an unpopular or outlying opinion or thought, that the membership piles on pretty effing hard, not just once, but repeated kickings. This leads to lost members, and people wondering why? Why? Because life is too short to get your head bashed in on an anonymous forum. We could lighten up a little in here.
Not saying people shouldn't say contradictory or corrective things. Not saying there shouldn't be vigorous debate, or that garbage shouldn't be debunked. But there's a civil difference between respecting the poster while debunking erroneous postings, and belittling and flogging a person with multiple posts of the same thoughts and arguments. Most of you know where that line is most of the time. But there are any number of instances where people collectively go off the rails, and this is one of them.
What I'm looking for is balance and some respect for the other members while the discussion is in progress.
Quote: beachbumbabs
I think there are times, when someone expresses an unpopular or outlying opinion or thought, .
BBB, the "18 yos in a row" is not just an unpopular or outlying opinion or thought, it is either an outright lie or an insult to anyone who has the tiniest understanding of statistics. He was given many opportunities to say, "gee, when you really think about it, I must have been mistaken. It's more likely it was a run of a lot of yos but probably not 18 in a row! Funny the number I remembered was 18, and we all know yo happens 1 in 18 tries!" Seriously BBB, what credibility do you give to ANY of the claims of someone who steadfastly believes he saw 18 yos in a row, someone in the media, who at that very moment didn't ask to get a copy of the tape? Someone who saw the most unlikely streak in the HISTORY of gambling in the world, who just mused 'wow'. Please stop defending him, stop making it seem like he was 'run out of Dodge'.
Remember, we all 'make fun of' the people who win with gambling systems that are obviously negative EV, that claim they have found the Holy Grail. But the likelihood of those people actually being ahead with their negative EV systems at the time they report to us is substantially more likely than someone seeing 18 yos in a row. As Mike has marginalized the 'gambling system' people here, the even more outlandish claims should be even more marginalized....
Quote: beachbumbabsQuote: odiousgambitLord of the Flies ... hmmm... little boys sorting out dominance? or just acting like little boys turned wild generally? or [symbolically] killing a pig and sticking the head on a stick that's drawing flies?
I think I'm going with the last one, the pig* being Alan, the head being the 18 yo claim, the stick being the moderators like yourself, and the flies being the posters keeping the thread alive!
*not meant to be an insult
I think there are times, when someone expresses an unpopular or outlying opinion or thought, that the membership piles on pretty effing hard, not just once, but repeated kickings. This leads to lost members, and people wondering why? Why? Because life is too short to get your head bashed in on an anonymous forum. We could lighten up a little in here.
Not saying people shouldn't say contradictory or corrective things. Not saying there shouldn't be vigorous debate, or that garbage shouldn't be debunked. But there's a civil difference between respecting the poster while debunking erroneous postings, and belittling and flogging a person with multiple posts of the same thoughts and arguments. Most of you know where that line is most of the time. But there are any number of instances where people collectively go off the rails, and this is one of them.
What I'm looking for is balance and some respect for the other members while the discussion is in progress.
Perhaps it's Alan's stubborn-ness that lead to his demise. Nor does it help that he completely ignores what people write in discussions and repeats the same thing over and over again. That leads to to many people disliking Alan....so when he makes a grandios statement about seeing 18 yo's in a row, of course people are going to pile on him. Maybe this lynching was for the betterment of this forum.
Quote: SOOPOOBBB, the "18 yos in a row" is not just an unpopular or outlying opinion or thought, it is either an outright lie or an insult to anyone who has the tiniest understanding of statistics. He was given many opportunities to say, "gee, when you really think about it, I must have been mistaken. It's more likely it was a run of a lot of yos but probably not 18 in a row! Funny the number I remembered was 18, and we all know yo happens 1 in 18 tries!" Seriously BBB, what credibility do you give to ANY of the claims of someone who steadfastly believes he saw 18 yos in a row, someone in the media, who at that very moment didn't ask to get a copy of the tape? Someone who saw the most unlikely streak in the HISTORY of gambling in the world, who just mused 'wow'. Please stop defending him, stop making it seem like he was 'run out of Dodge'.
Remember, we all 'make fun of' the people who win with gambling systems that are obviously negative EV, that claim they have found the Holy Grail. But the likelihood of those people actually being ahead with their negative EV systems at the time they report to us is substantially more likely than someone seeing 18 yos in a row. As Mike has marginalized the 'gambling system' people here, the even more outlandish claims should be even more marginalized....
As I said before, I'm looking for balance. The herd stomping is an unattractive feature of this forum, and costs more than the loss of one outspoken member.
You confuse the issue I have (as others have before you) when you conflate the claim with the methodology. I'm not defending Alan or his claim in the slightest. I'm saying that beating people into the dust is destructive. It silences not only the member, but many other people who don't participate out of a reluctance to get treated like crap (they may have a good or a bad idea, but it never gets put forward because of the overkill, so who knows?) by the members.
