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rawtuff
rawtuff
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January 27th, 2016 at 11:54:08 AM permalink
Quote: JimRockford

If I threw a pair of dice (die A and die B) 18 times and reported the results on each die for each roll, wouldn't my precise results be just as improbable as 18 elevens? Couldn't it be said that my reported results are very doubtful because it is far more likely that I made a mistake?



Yes, your precise results would be as improbable as 18 elevens. The point is there are so few ways to achieve a streak "symmetrical" or memorable enough (in our, human eyes) compared to the total number of possible streaks/outcomes in 18 throws of pair of dice, that the odds of seeing one of those memorable streaks, such as 18 elevens in a row are astronomically small.

But not even that is the point. The real point is that the odds of 1 to gazillion event happening COMBINED with the exceptionally small odds of having no public note about the event of some sort, no one betting on the exceptional streak, no one stopping the game and examining the dice for weights and no one, but one person on the entire planet (as far as we know) able to attest for the event actually taking place is what makes it really hard to comprehend.
Ayecarumba
Ayecarumba
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January 27th, 2016 at 3:10:08 PM permalink
Quote: RS



Setting 18 points and hitting them all before a 7 out, only? Or would 7/11 on come out roll count toward that 18? What about 2/3/12 on come out roll

Quote: Ayecarumba

Yes, 7/11 and 2/3/12 would count coming out. The question is about the odds of setting 18 points and making all of them before a seven out.

To clarify, 7/11 coming out would not count as a "point made", only 18 points established and made, before a seven out. Intervening 7/11/2/3/12's could have occurred... What are those odds? I ask as a point of comparison because this unlikely event actually occurred under live casino conditions, and has been documented.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
MathExtremist
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January 27th, 2016 at 3:26:00 PM permalink
Quote: darkoz

So, with that in mind, the chances of finding such a glitch that escaped all that should be astronomical. And yet, we know that has happened.

Many times, in fact, but with two caveats:
a) Virtually all such glitches will be reported in the news because they lead to reported jackpots of at least six figures (if not seven or eight). There are about a million EGMs of varying sorts in the US and with play times in the few-second range, you're looking at over a trillion EGM transactions annually.
b) The chances of a machine glitch actually leading to large sums of money for a player is almost zero. I've worked on several slot game malfunction lawsuits where the game reported a huge jackpot but the player didn't ultimately get paid. In most cases, the backstop disclaimer is "Malfunction voids all pays and plays."

There have been many malfunction cases over the years, including the recently-posted keno machine issue that just happened in Nebraska:

http://caselaw.findlaw.com/nv-supreme-court/1419197.html
http://law.justia.com/cases/iowa/supreme-court/2015/140802.html
http://law.justia.com/cases/new-mexico/court-of-appeals/2010/f580-f6d1-10d3e.html
http://www.oregonlive.com/beaverton/index.ssf/2015/11/beaverton_woman_says_shell_hir.html
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
darkoz
darkoz
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January 27th, 2016 at 3:40:18 PM permalink
Quote: MathExtremist

Many times, in fact, but with two caveats:
a) Virtually all such glitches will be reported in the news because they lead to reported jackpots of at least six figures (if not seven or eight). There are about a million EGMs of varying sorts in the US and with play times in the few-second range, you're looking at over a trillion EGM transactions annually.
b) The chances of a machine glitch actually leading to large sums of money for a player is almost zero. I've worked on several slot game malfunction lawsuits where the game reported a huge jackpot but the player didn't ultimately get paid. In most cases, the backstop disclaimer is "Malfunction voids all pays and plays."

There have been many malfunction cases over the years, including the recently-posted keno machine issue that just happened in Nebraska:

http://caselaw.findlaw.com/nv-supreme-court/1419197.html
http://law.justia.com/cases/iowa/supreme-court/2015/140802.html
http://law.justia.com/cases/new-mexico/court-of-appeals/2010/f580-f6d1-10d3e.html
http://www.oregonlive.com/beaverton/index.ssf/2015/11/beaverton_woman_says_shell_hir.html



Mathextremist,

I'm not talking about malfunctions with voided pays but exploitable glitches where Elvis left the building with the money before it was caught. If, as you say, the chances of finding a machine glitch that leads "to large sums of money for a player is almost zero", then something that has almost zero chance of happening, has happened on a number of occasions.

Here is more in line with what I was referring to, as an example: http://nypost.com/2013/07/29/what-a-load-of-crap-gambler-wins-big-by-exploiting-a-software-glitch-at-aqueduct-resorts-world/
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
MathExtremist
MathExtremist
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January 27th, 2016 at 8:56:44 PM permalink
Quote: darkoz

Mathextremist,

I'm not talking about malfunctions with voided pays but exploitable glitches where Elvis left the building with the money before it was caught. If, as you say, the chances of finding a machine glitch that leads "to large sums of money for a player is almost zero", then something that has almost zero chance of happening, has happened on a number of occasions.

Here is more in line with what I was referring to, as an example: http://nypost.com/2013/07/29/what-a-load-of-crap-gambler-wins-big-by-exploiting-a-software-glitch-at-aqueduct-resorts-world/


True enough. And of course there was the notorious case of the video poker double-up bug exploited by Nestor and Kane discussed at length here and elsewhere. However, as described in the craps article you linked, the problem (for the exploiter) is that the buggy game is usually caught fairly quickly and disabled. Silicon Gaming had a keno machine in Lake Tahoe in the 1990s with an RNG problem that sounds similar to the recent Nebraska keno machine -- there were discernable patterns in the numbers so players figured it out and won money. But in doing so, the game dumped lots of money and was removed by the operator.

To be fair, none of the cases I've worked on (yet) have had to do with persistent glitching and repeatable exploitation. They've all been network error/jackpot malfunctions where the machine locked up for millions of dollars. It's entirely possible that there are glitchy machines out there that are being exploited under the radar for smaller amounts of money without drawing sufficient attention to them. The only time these things make widespread news is when someone actually notices -- someone besides the exploiter, that is.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
HowMany
HowMany
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February 6th, 2016 at 4:06:37 PM permalink
I returned home from my annual pre-Super Bowl trip to Vegas yesterday.

I played craps at Binions Thursday night. I personally witnessed TWO yo's in-a-row.

Maybe one of these days I'll see 18 yo's in-a-row??? But then again, maybe I won't.
djatc
djatc
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February 6th, 2016 at 4:07:48 PM permalink
Quote: HowMany

I returned home from my annual pre-Super Bowl trip to Vegas yesterday.

I played craps at Binions Thursday night. I personally witnessed TWO yo's in-a-row.

Maybe one of these days I'll see 18 yo's in-a-row??? But then again, maybe I won't.



Noob I saw 3 in a row

Of course nobody was on it because we all were dummies
"Man Babes" #AxelFabulous
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
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February 6th, 2016 at 7:57:13 PM permalink
I once saw one yo in a row.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Boz
Boz
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February 6th, 2016 at 8:08:27 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I once saw one yo in a row.



I had a yo-yo when I was a kid.
Wizardofnothing
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February 6th, 2016 at 8:31:34 PM permalink
My favorite musician is yo yoma
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