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Wizardofnothing
Wizardofnothing
Joined: Jul 3, 2015
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January 27th, 2016 at 9:44:23 AM permalink
I have looked at Alan's forum and it's clear he doesn't grasp a lot when it comes to gambling .... So who really knows what he did or did not see- I know he didn't so that's all that matters to me
No longer hiring, don’t ask because I won’t hire you either
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
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January 27th, 2016 at 9:49:36 AM permalink
I don't buy that 18 yos in a row is comparable to any such more believable thing.

Take the old diagramming out of the continued chances of always tossing heads in a coin toss. In throwing yos instead of needing double the space [if same spacing kept] on the next row you need 36 times the space. If you actually did it, it would visually show the competing possibilities. The latter rows start to become enormous.

the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
OnceDear
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OnceDear 
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January 27th, 2016 at 9:51:29 AM permalink
Quote: RS

Prediction: Sometime down the road Alan is going to say something to the effect of the guy didn't throw 18 yo's in a row (consecutively, back-to-back), but something else....."every time it was his turn to shoot the dice, over the course of his many rolls, he threw at least one yo, and he had 18 such hands in a row where at least one yo was rolled." And then the 'mathletes' will be ridiculed by Alan & his lackeys because it was a simple "word problem" not a "math problem" that mathletes can't seem to grasp....or something along those lines.

Don't be silly RS. Those two things mean exactly the same unless the mathletes over analyse it :)
Beware. The earth is NOT flat. Hit and run is not a winning strategy: Pressing into trends IS not a winning strategy: Progressives are not a winning strategy: Don't Buy It! .Don't even take it for free.
Rigondeaux
Rigondeaux
Joined: Aug 18, 2014
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January 27th, 2016 at 10:36:19 AM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

PM search feature would be wonderful. So would being able to sort by sender.



The biggest problem by far is the lack of basic forum functions. Being able to bold text, post images and videos and so forth without manually coding them.

To someone just trying the place out, these are likely to be huge turn offs.
JimRockford
JimRockford
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January 27th, 2016 at 10:42:42 AM permalink
If I threw a pair of dice (die A and die B) 18 times and reported the results on each die for each roll, wouldn't my precise results be just as improbable as 18 elevens? Couldn't it be said that my reported results are very doubtful because it is far more likely that I made a mistake?
"Truth is ever to be found in the simplicity, and not in the multiplicity and confusion of things." - Isaac Newton
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
Joined: Jan 12, 2010
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January 27th, 2016 at 11:10:01 AM permalink
Quote: Wizardofnothing

I have looked at Alan's forum and it's clear he doesn't grasp a lot when it comes to gambling ....


All you can do is shake your head in disbelief. I don't know how it can be called a "Best Buys" with what I read there.
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
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January 27th, 2016 at 11:12:44 AM permalink
Quote: JimRockford

If I threw a pair of dice (die A and die B) 18 times and reported the results on each die for each roll, wouldn't my precise results be just as improbable as 18 elevens? Couldn't it be said that my reported results are very doubtful because it is far more likely that I made a mistake?


No , because 18 yo's have different odds then say a string of 18 rolls that go 2, 4, 4, 7, 7, 5, 9, 9, 3, 11, 7, 5, 12, 5, 7, 7, 8, 5.
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
JimRockford
JimRockford
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January 27th, 2016 at 11:18:18 AM permalink
Quote: Ibeatyouraces

No , because 18 yo's have different odds then say a string of 18 rolls that go 2, 4, 4, 7, 7, 5, 9, 9, 3, 11, 7, 5, 12, 5, 7, 7, 8, 5.

Keep in mind that my roll results will be of each die not just the sum:

Die A 6, Die B 2
Die A 4, Die B 4
etc.
"Truth is ever to be found in the simplicity, and not in the multiplicity and confusion of things." - Isaac Newton
OnceDear
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OnceDear 
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January 27th, 2016 at 11:41:57 AM permalink
Quote: JimRockford

If I threw a pair of dice (die A and die B) 18 times and reported the results on each die for each roll, wouldn't my precise results be just as improbable as 18 elevens?


yes. If you reported the pair of values without reference to which die was which e.g. report a5b6 and a6b5 in the same way as say '56'.
Quote:

Couldn't it be said that my reported results are very doubtful because it is far more likely that I made a mistake?

Not reasonably so.
if you take certain things as patterns, such as in roulette you might have odd,even,odd,even or you might have 4 evens or 4 odds or 4 reds or 4 blacks, then you can see that 'remarkable patterns' of some kind are quite frequent. That's what makes the game so appealing to pattern followers. However, 18Yos in a row is far far far more than just a 'remarkable pattern'
Beware. The earth is NOT flat. Hit and run is not a winning strategy: Pressing into trends IS not a winning strategy: Progressives are not a winning strategy: Don't Buy It! .Don't even take it for free.
Rigondeaux
Rigondeaux
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January 27th, 2016 at 11:48:29 AM permalink
I mentioned that before. Really, I think the odds of ANY event occurring are microscopic if you are specific enough. Just think about the odds of a particular sperm meeting a particular egg and work forward from there.

So I think that leaves us with the odds of any one of a particular state of affairs, all of which are huge long shots, corresponding to some pre conceived narrative. A coincidence, in other words.

The odds of you sitting next to people A,B,C,D... the next 18 times you go to a nice restaurant might be very long even if they turn out to be unremarkable people.

But if you claim that you went out to eat and, on 18 consecutive occasions (lets say at random steakhouses in LV), were seated next to a starting player for a pro sports team, I'd have a hard time believing you.

Might not be all that less likely than any particular string of unknown people. But this suggests a coincidence that is hard to believe. i.e. that, out of the bagazillion combos, you happened upon such a remarkable and memorable one.

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