18 yo's in a row (split-off)
It happened. What's the problem?
The only problem was none of us -- there were three of us at the table -- even had a dollar bet on it and stood there like idiots.
How many of you would admit to standing there like an idiot the way I did? LOL
As one of my buddies told me -- and I wrote about this on my forum -- if there are odds for something to happen, it will happen.
Sure the odds are one in a gazillion... but it happened.
I only wish I could tell you I won so much money from it that I could take over the Powerball organization... but I won nothing.
Quote: GWAEI don't understand the point of starting a new thread about this when only a few people even remember this story.
Alan posted it in the odd/even thread, which the post had nothing to do with.
Quote: AlanMendelsonIt really amazes me that my being at a table when a random shooter threw 18 yo's in a row has created such an uproar?
It happened. What's the problem?
The only problem was none of us -- there were three of us at the table -- even had a dollar bet on it and stood there like idiots.
How many of you would admit to standing there like an idiot the way I did? LOL
As one of my buddies told me -- and I wrote about this on my forum -- if there are odds for something to happen, it will happen.
Sure the odds are one in a gazillion... but it happened.
I only wish I could tell you I won so much money from it that I could take over the Powerball organization... but I won nothing.
The mathletes will NEVER believe you …trust me
Quote: AlanMendelsonIt really amazes me that my being at a table when a random shooter threw 18 yo's in a row has created such an uproar?
It happened. What's the problem?
The only problem was none of us -- there were three of us at the table -- even had a dollar bet on it and stood there like idiots.
How many of you would admit to standing there like an idiot the way I did? LOL
As one of my buddies told me -- and I wrote about this on my forum -- if there are odds for something to happen, it will happen.
Sure the odds are one in a gazillion... but it happened.
I only wish I could tell you I won so much money from it that I could take over the Powerball organization... but I won nothing.
Alan, was the shooter setting the dice and trying to influence them, or just flinging them?
Quote: aceofspadesThe mathletes will NEVER believe you …trust me
It never happened. ;)
Quote: AyecarumbaAlan, was the shooter setting the dice and trying to influence them, or just flinging them?
Just flinging them, and they were bouncing all over the place. Even the shooter stood there in amazement. Even the shooter never bet a yo.
By the way, if this will help the math guys justify their anger and disdain over this: I will be happy to sell to anyone for $29.99 a demonstration of how he threw the dice. LOL I will have a class in my hotel room at Caesars Palace and using two casino dice, purchased from the gift shop -- with the casino official cancellations -- I will demonstrate by throwing the two dice on to my king size bed how the shooter threw the dice.
This way -- by offering a class for $29.99 -- all of the math guys can feel better about raising such an uproar over what I witnessed.
LOL
Quote: RSIt never happened. ;)
This is where you're making a mistake. The odds don't say it CAN'T happen. The odds only say it can happen one in 24 gazillion times to the 8th power. Therefore -- drum roll please -- not only can it happen but it did happen.
That's not to say that Alan and the assembled crowd didn't see it happen,
(2/36)^18=2.5415280553343455718377942293136e-23
or to put it another way
1 in 39346408075296537575424
Which, without the benefit of mathematical proof, I can say with great confidence is less likely than the observers being either mistaken or dishonest.
If I'd witnessed it myself, I'd still assert that it did not happen!
I make no claim about which is greater of Pm or Pd
But (Pm+Pd)>Pyo
Quote: OnceDear...(2/36)^18=2.5415280553343455718377942293136e-23
or to put it another way
1 in 39346408075296537575424
But it didn't happen because I never won the lottery once.
LOL
Quote: Ayecarumba
No. What I'm saying is that there is a far greater chance that there is a better explanation. An error in the perception of the ONE observer who saw fit to write about the event happening.
Quote: GWAEAlan as a gambler, I don't believe it happened not because of the odds but because you said you never bet it. I think 99% of us would have started to put money on it by the 10th in a row. If it even gets to 10 Ina row I would start to think something is fishy and would have put at least 5 on it and probably would have been pressing for each after.
But I dont bet the horn or hardways.
The only time I have a horn bet is on the come-out roll for insurance of my passline bet.
So... guess again.
I was thinking the same thing.Quote: GWAEsomething IS fishy
I would first look for the hidden TV show.
I can't believe management didn't think something was up. Money bet or not isn't the only factor.
I would assume the dice were loaded or someone was cheating. Perhaps the cheats had no choice and just left the dice. Perhaps someone cheating made a mistake.
If I was Alan or working there I would call gaming and ask that EVERYTHING be inspected.
IT WASN'T RANDOM OR IT DIDN'T HAPPEN
Quote: AlanMendelsonBut I dont bet the horn or hardways.
The only time I have a horn bet is on the come-out roll for insurance of my passline bet.
So... guess again.
Neither do I but when something is thus screwed I would change my betting.
In comparison to his story your's sounds....NVM.Quote: aceofspadesThe mathletes will NEVER believe you …trust me
30 Yo's + 18 BJ losses in a row =______
EXACTLYQuote: GWAENeither do I but when something is thus screwed I would change my betting.
At what point do say to yourself....
OK OK I don't believe in streaks or trends, but FFS this BS isn't random, something fishy is happening, WTF I'll give it a shot.
#10, #11, #12?
13
14
15
16
17
18
In all honesty guys, you're standing at a craps table and a shooter throws a yo. Do you really think the next throw is also going to be a yo?
After five, do you really think the sixth is going to be a yo?
After ten, do you really think the eleventh is going to be a yo?
I don't know if I mentioned this before but the shooter was a young guy, early 20s and his buddy same age, and If If recall they both had a passline bet and a bet on 6 or 8.
Three times the stickman, James, knocked the dice around on the table with his stick to check to see if they were weighted -- and each time they appeared to be random with different numbers showing. James kept saying, "I've got to check these dice again."
I only wish there was a way to have documented it. I did ask Caesars about getting a copy of the tape but they told me tapes are kept for only a short period of time unless there is an investigation and reason and my request was made weeks too late.
If you want to know about bigger miracles: I had dates with Miss Israel and Miss Florida and Miss Miami.
You shouldn't talk about Alan's integrity in the same post as Rob Singer's VP strategies.Quote: DanMahoneyI believe Alan, although it is feasible that someone may have miscounted and it was only 15 or 16 or 17. If everybody was sober then it probably happened. Alan is a man of high integrity and I enjoy his VP web site. I have started to have a bigger advantage over VP after following the advice of one of his top contributors, Rob Singer. Have hit some nice jackpots which I would have never hit playing without some of his strategies. Thanks for your VP website Alan but please don't ask me for any of my back tax records.
Rob Singer's VP strategies are absolutely BUNK.
Sounds like a legitimate test to me.Quote: AlanMendelson
Three times the stickman, James, knocked the dice around on the table with his stick to check to see if they were weighted
To put this in comparison:
Probability of 18 Yo's in a row 1 in 18^18 = 1 in 39,346,408,075,296,500,000,000
Probability of a monkey solving a Rubik's cube in a single attempt =FACT(8)*3^7*FACT(12)*0.5*2^11 = 1 in 43,252,003,274,489,900,000.
So it is 910 times more likely that monkey would solve the Rubik's Cube than a shooter throwing 18 yo's in a row.
Quote: WizardTo put this in comparison:
Probability of 18 Yo's in a row 1 in 18^18 = 1 in 39,346,408,075,296,500,000,000
Probability of a monkey solving a Rubik's cube in a single attempt =FACT(8)*3^7*FACT(12)*0.5*2^11 = 1 in 43,252,003,274,489,900,000.
So it is 910 times more likely that monkey would solve the Rubik's Cube than a shooter throwing 18 yo's in a row.
How likely to throw 18 yos to winning powerball?
Do you believe it really happen or do you think there was an honest mistake or possibly something fishy was happening?Quote: WizardTo put this in comparison:
Probability of 18 Yo's in a row 1 in 18^18 = 1 in 39,346,408,075,296,500,000,000
Probability of a monkey solving a Rubik's cube in a single attempt =FACT(8)*3^7*FACT(12)*0.5*2^11 = 1 in 43,252,003,274,489,900,000.
So it is 910 times more likely that monkey would solve the Rubik's Cube than a shooter throwing 18 yo's in a row.
Quote: djatcHow likely to throw 18 yos to winning powerball?
18 yo's in a row = 1 in 39,346,408,075,296,500,000,000
Powerball = 1 in 292,201,338
Powerball 2 out of 2 = 1 in 85,381,621,928,990,200
So, it is 460,829 times more likely to buy two Powerball tickets, and win both of them, than to go throw 18 yo's in a row.
BTW, is it yos or yo's? Somebody ask BBB.
Quote: Wizard18 yo's in a row = 1 in 39,346,408,075,296,500,000,000
Powerball = 1 in 292,201,338
Powerball 2 out of 2 = 1 in 85,381,621,928,990,200
So, it is 460,829 times more likely to buy two Powerball tickets, and win both of them, than to go throw 18 yo's in a row.
BTW, is it yos or yo's? Somebody ask BBB.
This does not look good for Alan's claims.
Quote: ChesterDogActually, is it yos or yoes? Here's a nice video on how to make plurals of words ending in O.
I got to wondering what is the plural of yo yo. According to Dictionary.com it can be yo-yos or yo-yoes. Not only didn't I know that yo-yo was supposed to be hyphenated, but I guess I shouldn't have been using an apostrophe in yos/yoes.
How many push-ups do I owe, Barb?
Quote: WizardofnothingCan anyone do a comparison of likelihood of losing thirty hands of blackjack vs 18 11s in a row
There he is! :)
False memories, delusions, believing a dream are more common than you might think. There are far more probable and logical explanations then the event it's itself.Quote: aceofspadesAlan - I empathize with you in this thread - as 'they' did it me here—> 30 hands in a row—I was crucified and still not believed
Even people with a way above average memory will remember many things things that didn't really happen.
Quote: Wizard
To put this in comparison:
Probability of 18 Yo's in a row 1 in 18^18 = 1 in 39,346,408,075,296,500,000,000
Probability of a monkey solving a Rubik's cube in a single attempt =FACT(8)*3^7*FACT(12)*0.5*2^11 = 1 in 43,252,003,274,489,900,000.
So it is 910 times more likely that monkey would solve the Rubik's Cube than a shooter throwing 18 yo's in a row.
But...what if the monkey is a Rubik's cube setter???
If it was Michael who made this claim, would you be doubting it?
Quote: DeucekiesIf Alan said he's seen it happen twice, then I'd call boolsh on him, but no matter how long the odds, 18 yos has to happen sometime, doesn't it?
I calculate that if there were 1,000 craps tables going 24/7 for the entire lifespan of the sun (4.6 billion years), there would still be only a 1 in 544 chance of ever seeing 18 yos in the row.
Quote: WizardI calculate that if there were 1,000 craps tables going 24/7 for the entire lifespan of the sun (4.6 billion years), there would still be only a 1 in 544 chance of ever seeing 18 yos in the row.
So, after the 17th yo, the dice would recognize the previous events and not land that way? You are saying 18 throws of a yo can't happen in a row because the dice have memory and are not really independent events?
Quote: darkozSo, after the 17th yo, the dice would recognize the previous events and not land that way? You are saying 18 throws of a yo can't happen in a row because the dice have memory and are not really independent events?
Re-read.
Quote: Wizard18 yo's in a row = 1 in 39,346,408,075,296,500,000,000
Powerball = 1 in 292,201,338
Powerball 2 out of 2 = 1 in 85,381,621,928,990,200
So, it is 460,829 times more likely to buy two Powerball tickets, and win both of them, than to go throw 18 yo's in a row.
BTW, is it yos or yo's? Somebody ask BBB.
it's absolutely yo's, because "yo" isn't a word except as Craps spoken slang, so looks like an acronym or abbreviation without the apostrophe. The point is reader comprehension, and the apostrophe helps in that.
Does that help with my push-up balance? I bought a ticket. It had the 17 PB, and I did the PP, so I get $12 back. But I'm mindful of your "good bet" tag, so I confess my transgression with blushing cheeks. :)
Quote: AussieSomething like this would be well remembered by dice dealers at the casino in question. Why doesn't someone go there and ask? Might even be able to track down "James" the stick man and ask for him to confirm.
Absolutely. James has retired and I don't recall who the other dealers were or the floorman but they wouldn't be there anymore either. There's been a lot of turnover.
As I mentioned, a few weeks after this happened I asked a manager if there would be tapes available and I was told it was too late. Whatever tapes there are would not have been kept unless an inquiry was made at the time.
I keep hoping that one day the "shooter" will show up on a forum, maybe this one, to tell the story.
