Need some help from some of you math wizards

I'm heading to Tahoe this weekend with a goal of obtaining 8000 comp points at the casino I play at (Mont Bleu). My host has been great and I need to get to 50,000 points to be able to maintain my status for the next six months. I figured it's worth the expected loss and it typically gets me 1500 square foot suites, a massage a month, never paying for a meal, multiple prizes over a six month period as my play is higher than the typical person there (and they award prizes based on points), 3 nights at the Cosmopolitan with an upgraded room, $200 in free play and $100 food credit, a free cruise (inside cabin), and typically $100 a day in free play.

For every $5 in play, you're awarded 65 points per hour. I figure if I average $150 on my average wager, that would net me roughly 1950 per hour (so I would need just over 4 hours of play).

Although I don't normally play this way, I saw a guy using this system and I'm guessing it might have been to get his duration in....

$25 on pass line and $25 on don't pass. When a point is established, take the odds on the pass line. Obviously you hope to avoid too many 12s, as this is the push on the don't pass but a loss on the pass. Assuming 100 rolls per hours, what would be my expected loss? I was thinking $278.

P.S. Forgot to mention....odds wagers do count at this casino.

I think it depends on what "maximum odds" are. Is it 3/4/5x on pass and 6x on don't?

Speaking of which, do you earn points on odds bets to lose?

Well, there are two simple ways to calculate your expected loss. Every 36 come out rolls, you will lose your Pass bet and tie on your Don't Pass bet with a 12. If you are right that there will be 100 rolls in your hour of play, which is fairly normal, a Pass Line/Don't Pass wager is settled on average, about every 3.3 rolls. You should complete about 33 Pass/Don't Pass bets in an hour. Again, you lose $25 every 36.

33/36= .9167.

Theoretical hold on all that action is .9167 X $25= $22.92

Another way to calculate your theoretical hold is to simply use the expected vig rate of 1.4%. You'll be betting $50 per unit ($25 on the pass and $25 on the Don't) expecting 33 units to complete in the hour. .014 X $50 X 33 = $23.10

This difference between $22.92 & $23.10 is a rounding error on the expected 1.4% vig rate.

The casino will give you 65 points for every $5 per hour. You're doing ten times that amount, so you should get 650 points per hour.

50,000 / 650 = 76.9 hours of play needed

76.9 hours X $22.92 per hour = $1,762 in expected juice to get your comp level

Quote: bodyforlife

I figure if I average $150 on my average wager, that would net me roughly 1950 per hour (so I would need just over 4 hours of play).

Although I don't normally play this way, I saw a guy using this system and I'm guessing it might have been to get his duration in....

$25 on pass line and $25 on don't pass. When a point is established, take the odds on the pass line.

Also remember that 1/3 of the time, you won't establish a point, so those will be $50 in play. In order to average $150 per come-out, you need to put up $150 in odds each time there's a point. If it's 3/4/5x, the only way you can do that is to bet 6x odds on the don't.

Does it have to be on tables? Maybe a few hours on VP would be better?

Quote: GWAE

Does it have to be on tables? Maybe a few hours on VP would be better?

I don't remember the odds on VP, but it seemed to take a hell of a lot longer.

Quote: ThatDonGuy

Also remember that 1/3 of the time, you won't establish a point, so those will be $50 in play. In order to average $150 per come-out, you need to put up $150 in odds each time there's a point. If it's 3/4/5x, the only way you can do that is to bet 6x odds on the don't.

I'm not quite following you. If everything on the board is counted for your rating, I would think you would be near an average of $150 just with what I stated.

Scenario 1 - the point is a 4 or 10. Total rating 25+ 25 + 75 odds = 125

Scenario 2 - the point is a 5 or 9. Total rating 25 +100 odds = 150

Scenario 3 - the point is a 6 or 8. Total rating 25 + 25 + 125 odds = 175

And if a 2,3,7,11, or 12 is hit, the rating is 50 for that one roll

Of course, taking into account what you and rotten luck said (outcome one in every 3.3, and every 3 rolls a non-point....not to mention the comeout roll of 50), I'm guessing this combo would be closer to a 120 average (now that I've looked at it again). OK, I get it. Thanks.

Quote: bodyforlife

I don't remember the odds on VP, but it seemed to take a hell of a lot longer.

naww at .25 denom it would take 8 hours, $1 denom would only be about 2. (depending on how many points you get per dollar. If it is like CET and you get 1 point per $10 bet then yeah forget about it.)

Your query have resolved my problem as well. Thanks for raising this topic here.