Zer0
Joined: Jan 30, 2014
• Posts: 137
October 10th, 2015 at 8:08:49 AM permalink
So to all my math people (or to anybody who can tell me how to punch this into Wolfram Alpha), say I'm playing crapless craps, and I bet across like this:

\$15 on 2/12 (buy; 74:15 odds) \$15 on 3/11 (buy; 44:15 odds) \$20 on 4/10 (buy; 39:20 odds) \$5 on 5/9, \$6 on 6/8, total of 122 across, only using 5/9 to press 6/8 upon hitting.

I'm not claiming this to be some betting system to beat the house edge, I'm just curious as to what my overall chances of picking up \$123 or more before 7ing out on a given roll with these bets active each time.

Edit: \$122 total not \$126
mustangsally
Joined: Mar 29, 2011
• Posts: 2463
October 10th, 2015 at 8:47:50 AM permalink
Quote: Zer0

So to all my math people (or to anybody who can tell me how to punch this into Wolfram Alpha), say I'm playing crapless craps, and I bet across like this:

a transition matrix in WA will time-out before an exact result is delivered.
I tried that b4.
you could get the paid version and maybe b happy

Quote: Zer0

\$15 on 2/12 (buy; 74:15 odds) \$15 on 3/11 (buy; 44:15 odds) \$20 on 4/10 (buy; 39:20 odds) \$5 on 5/9, \$6 on 6/8, total of 122 across, only using 5/9 to press 6/8 upon hitting.

no vig on the bet up-front
what casino(s) is this at?
I know some have vig-on-win for the extreme-outside
but for all - horn4,10?
OH, is this online-crap-crapless?
<<<<<>>>>>
Quote: Zer0

I'm not claiming this to be some betting system to beat the house edge,

no one cares about beating the house edge, only how much can i win and what are my chances of winning, imo
Quote: Zer0

I'm just curious as to what my overall chances of picking up \$123 or more before 7ing out on a given roll with these bets active each time.

easy guess,
less than 50%
could be closer to 45%

cuz each bet has a house edge
who would figure that out?

I think the standard \$32 across and 6 #s has a higher chance to reach \$64 or more B4 ruin
i do not bet those bets

Quote: Zer0

Edit: \$122 total not \$126

the cost could be \$6 to buy the Horn+4,10 #s with vig, \$1, paid up-front
unless they only charge the vig on a win

still
you have 6 ways to lose 10 bets and 30 ways to only win 1 bet, at a time
yep
no calculations or simulations required
chance to due what you want is still less than 50%
<<<<<<>>>>>>
this is easily calculated, like in in Excel, using Matrix Algebra, btw
super-easy
I mean an 11 year old can and has done-due it.
But 11 year-olds gamble differently than adults, imo
Sally

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ThatDonGuy
Joined: Jun 22, 2011
• Posts: 4189
October 10th, 2015 at 9:29:38 AM permalink
I wasn't sure if you replaced your winning bets immediately or waited until after the next 7 (or all 10 of your bets won, if that happened first).

After simulating 1 billion (with a B) runs:

With bet replacement, you reach 123 or higher before a seven 34.53% of the time, and your average loss between 7s is about \$8.

Without bet replacement, you reach 123 or higher before a seven 27.09% of the time, and your average loss between 7s is about \$40.
Zer0
Joined: Jan 30, 2014
• Posts: 137
October 10th, 2015 at 9:54:38 AM permalink
This is at River City in St. Louis, on buy bets vig is charged after the bet resolves, now on LAY bets the vig is charged up front but not buy bets.
mustangsally
Joined: Mar 29, 2011
• Posts: 2463
October 10th, 2015 at 9:56:48 AM permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuy

I wasn't sure

"only using 5/9 to press 6/8 upon hitting"
how are you handling the win a 5/9 and press the 6/8

this seems to be open to interpretation

I still stick with less than 45% as when a 7 does hit, there is still money left, not \$122 of course to continue that betting system, but not ruined either
that bet gets to the highest probability bet to up and try to get back to the orig-across-bet
<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<>>>
of course, just betting all \$122 on the Field bet has a 44.44% chance to at least double B4 ruin

that looks to be more fun, in my book of opinions

care to compare
Sally
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mustangsally
Joined: Mar 29, 2011
• Posts: 2463
October 10th, 2015 at 10:00:36 AM permalink
Quote: Zer0

This is at River City in St. Louis, on buy bets vig is charged after the bet resolves,
now on LAY bets the vig is charged up front but not buy bets.

cuz Lay bets win more than 50% of the time, Lay4,10 can easily top 70% of-the-time (my win rate still over 74% - no-fear-the-small-vig)

so the casino wants that cash now. I see that most often all-over-the-world-i-due-not-play-online-craps

thank you for sharing
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Zer0
Joined: Jan 30, 2014
• Posts: 137
October 10th, 2015 at 10:20:30 AM permalink
Quote: mustangsally

"only using 5/9 to press 6/8 upon hitting"
how are you handling the win a 5/9 and press the 6/8

this seems to be open to interpretation

I still stick with less than 45% as when a 7 does hit, there is still money left, not \$122 of course to continue that betting system, but not ruined either
that bet gets to the highest probability bet to up and try to get back to the orig-across-bet
<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<>>>
of course, just betting all \$122 on the Field bet has a 44.44% chance to at least double B4 ruin

that looks to be more fun, in my book of opinions

care to compare
Sally

I meant every time I get a 5 and 9 to either both hit, or have one of the two hit twice, I would use \$12 of the \$14 I get to press 6/8, this is just because 6/8 have a lower HE and from my understanding there isn't really a good buy bet for 5/9.
Zer0
Joined: Jan 30, 2014
• Posts: 137
October 10th, 2015 at 10:21:34 AM permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuy

I wasn't sure if you replaced your winning bets immediately or waited until after the next 7 (or all 10 of your bets won, if that happened first).

After simulating 1 billion (with a B) runs:

With bet replacement, you reach 123 or higher before a seven 34.53% of the time, and your average loss between 7s is about \$8.

Without bet replacement, you reach 123 or higher before a seven 27.09% of the time, and your average loss between 7s is about \$40.

Thank you!
mustangsally
Joined: Mar 29, 2011
• Posts: 2463
October 10th, 2015 at 10:59:06 AM permalink
Quote: Zer0

I meant every time I get a 5 and 9 to either both hit, or have one of the two hit twice, I would use \$12 of the \$14 I get to press 6/8, this is just because 6/8 have a lower HE and from my understanding there isn't really a good buy bet for 5/9.

I thought some MissRiverCasinos had Buy5/9 with vig on win, maybe not (knots)

then why not bet all on the 6 & 8.

ur chance to win at least 2
5/9 in any order
is less than 1 in 3

the Field bets wins way better than that, and can pay 2X or 3X on a win
the 5&9 look to be major sucker bets

i have seen kids pick up a sucker off the dirty ground and place it in their mouths.
some LOVE suckers!
Mully
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Zer0
Joined: Jan 30, 2014
• Posts: 137
October 10th, 2015 at 11:38:46 AM permalink
Sadly, we only have the 2&12 both pay double on the field at any given casino here in the STL area. I do occasionally put \$5 on it with a dollar chip for the dealer and use whatever I win out of it to build up my pass-odds but I don't do that very often. I just don't like how the field is a one roll bet because I am trying to get comps/more importantly tier points because I'm trying to move up a tier by the end of the year, and when things start to heat up in craps, it takes longer between shots, meaning if my expected loss per roll is only \$8, at a busy table if it takes a while to get the dice out between shots (especially if the shooter gets hot), I'd be much better off placing than the field.