Come bets, when to stop

Quote: MrV

The object of the game is to play and have fun. Sure, it'll cost you. No different than many other hobbies / interests such as hunting, fishing, traveling and whoring.

And those can be profitable, too, using smarts and luck.

Quote: discflicker

Can anyone calculate, on average, how much profit that 1 out of 43 wins, and then compare that amount to the average amount lost by the other 42?

Betting only Pass Line or Don't Pass for $5, the average result after 20,000 rolls of the dice will very close to a loss of $400

I've done simulations where a percentage of players could wind up ahead, with a lot of money, in a lifetime, using max odds especially the 10x or more.

The down side? Not so much that measly sums were the case so typically, but what was really rare was to have a winner that didn't have a sickening losing spell. Just getting absolutely crushed at some point was typical with the winners as well as the losers. The kind of money loss only a machine can bear.

I repeat, I do not recommend trying to do this for a living or something.

Quote: odiousgambit

I repeat, I do not recommend trying to do this for a living or something.

'Nuff said.

Quote: discflicker

Well, whoop-ty-do, 1 in 43 has a chance at having some money left after playing craps their whole life.

not money left, showing a profit over a lifetime of play
the words speak for themselves

Quote: discflicker

Can anyone calculate, on average, how much profit that 1 out of 43 wins, and then compare that amount to the average amount lost by the other 42?

it is high school algebra
so the answer is yes
remember the 1 in 43 was over 20,000 lifetime bets and not the 20,000 lifetime rolls (about 6k in total bets)

Quote: discflicker

I'm guessing (again) a small win vs. a large loss.
My gut feeling is like maybe 300 units won vs. 8,000 lost (betting one unit on the pass and 5 unit on pass-line odds).

nasty gut feeling
i get them too when it is hot outside like today

this below is for the pass line and NO odds
a no odds player (line) can be a lifetime winner
all depends on the number of total bets made and how much luck and drinks were involved
(1 million lifetime bets will not equal a winner, but could for the 5X odds player)

values are units
for 20k rolls (say 6k bets)
given a loss: -104.8
given a win: 40.1

for 20k bets (abouts 68k rolls)
given a loss: -290.8
given a win: 51.9

any one can check my math as i used a program and Excel
to number crunch
in other words
a double-barrel shotgun approach
(while simulations were running in the background. love quad core)

for the pass with 5X odds
that will have to wait until I get my winnings from MY OVER
for today (Love my Angels) minus the loss me hubby had from yesterday...
so much fun when lots of runs are scored
and 2 out of 3 winners ain't bad either

Mully

That's a lot of math.

Bet anything to win anything and get it done with one bet is the best way.

Bet enough to get a 1% HA, and then enjoy the rest of your trip if you want a bargain, or play penny machines to waste time after you compact all of your gambling in the time domain to a minute.

Quote: Ahigh

Bet anything to win anything and get it done with one bet is the best way

I assume you mean bet your whole bankroll?

True fact there, but also a very good way to lose your bankroll instantly.

Quote: odiousgambit

I assume you mean bet your whole bankroll?

True fact there, but also a very good way to lose your bankroll instantly.

i believe for most, if not all, making 20,000 lifetime bets on the pass line with no odds
at $10 each and every bet would be way easier to accomplish over a lifetime of play than plunking down all $200,000 for one round.

did you check my ev/sd results table for 1 million bets?
i want to know if it is accurate B4 my next batch of data rolls out
(get it.... rolls)

I bet you do not think it be possible that out of 10,000 players making the pass with 345x or 5x odds only (no pass and come bets)
for 1 million rounds of play there could be even 1 to show a profit over that many bets, given that they can make all those bets, of course, and a computer can do this super easy too

Sally

Quote: Ahigh

That's a lot of math.

Bet anything to win anything and get it done with one bet is the best way.

the math is easy
so volume
becomes more fun
math is fun

the argument is that NO player over a lifetime of bets at craps, unless they cheat, can be a lifetime winner

one poster says even 20,000 rolls is too many, Frank Scoblete says many many
times betting on random rolls that every one will lose in the long run... he has lots of followers (even maybe his dog too)

i say 1 million bets by blind squirrels will produce some lifetime winners because there are many of them (they love acorns)
and odiousgambit
knows that in simulations he has seen many lifetime winners 2 (if i have breakfast right now)

so
the argument
continues

Quote: mustangsally

the math is easy
so volume
becomes more fun
math is fun

the argument is that NO player over a lifetime of bets at craps, unless they cheat, can be a lifetime winner

one poster says even 20,000 rolls is too many, Frank Scoblete says many many
times betting on random rolls that every one will lose in the long run... he has lots of followers (even maybe his dog too)

i say 1 million bets by blind squirrels will produce some lifetime winners because there are many of them (they love acorns)
and odiousgambit
knows that in simulations he has seen many lifetime winners 2 (if i have breakfast right now)

so
the argument
continues

I may join the discussion, but I just don't have the free time. I took off this weekend to visit my mom down in Texas, and I spammed the WOV site. But it's back to work for me today.

I appreciate your being so nice. It seems more than just a couple of folks took the opportunity to call me a dope and a loser. F'ing rude, but I guess that's what you get.

We designed our game to solve just these sorts of problems (my strategy sucks and I want to gamble intelligently and I want to also play and have fun).

With our game, an intelligent gambler will play keeping their costs low while they map out the score to payback function. Then choose if they want to risk it all with skill or not, then make one big bet to reach their win goal and be done.

Only a player who can achieve an average payback over 100% should really be worried about anything more complicated. And that person should really just play over and over and over with as big of bets as they can afford as long as they are getting positive EV on average from each wager. But the skilled player who gets a big enough positive EV doesn't have to do anything but a dance and a spin and play pinball... No superstition, no worries even for the win amount. Just bet as big as possible and win win win from playing over and over and over with max skill. And that's by design. The fatal flaw for the player is overconfidence.

But back to craps, and I agree, these HA% don't take long to kill you if you don't use your odds, and even if you do, those costs don't ever go away. They only can get smaller on a percentage basis for THOSE WHO CAN AFFORD THE MAX ODDS.

Watching Phil watch $290,000 in chips get stacked up on third bases' stacks as he (at least) rolls his eyes was enough of a physical manifestation of the reason why even players like him are superstitious on that game, we do NOT want skilled players to have anything to blame in the game for superstition. It's your fault if you don't score enough and you feel like you're in control.

Alright, sorry for the tangent, and I may play, but really I gotz to work. Again thanks for being so nice, sally.

Quote: odiousgambit

I assume you mean bet your whole bankroll?

True fact there, but also a very good way to lose your bankroll instantly.

No. For the majority of us, betting our whole bankroll gives a close to 50% chance of ending up homeless. But making only one bet for less than that still gives us a near 50% chance of earning a profit. And that's the best chance it ever will be. The more bets we make our chance of earning money moves closer and closer to 0%.

Quote: TomG

No. For the majority of us, betting our whole bankroll gives a close to 50% chance of ending up homeless. But making only one bet for less than that still gives us a near 50% chance of earning a profit. And that's the best chance it ever will be. The more bets we make our chance of earning money moves closer and closer to 0%.

There's a really good point to be made. If you're making even money bets, and you have a probability of .49295 (with zero odds 1.41% HE) to double your money on a single bet, you only have a 0.243 probability of coming out ahead in two of those bets. This is because the probability of a push is the remaining less terrible outcome.

The "push" is something you really want to avoid if you want to get ahead.

But ANY strategy that uses multiple bets with a HA% is weaker than a bold strategy (on a purely negative expectation game).

That, I think, is the less common knowledge being carried around by those making bets over and over and over and still hoping that they will win.

This repetitive process quickly diminishes not just your chance of "winning" but seriously reduces your chance of even just breaking even.

Bold play is THE strategy. And again, I'm not trying to advertise, but that's exactly why we put "BetCube" in the pinball game. Play pinball for $1 a game all day long and make one bet if you want to. The casino just wants their rake. They shouldn't care how much you want to gamble. They only care how much money THEY make.

Putting that EDGE on the PLAYERS side without a bunch of math is something that we are very hopeful people starting "figuring out how to do it" on their own (bet big and play well is all you need to know).

Craps is just an exercise in learning why a negative expectation game can't be beaten no matter HOW SMALL the percent is. It needs to flip to the over 100% to make any significant improvement towards helping you turn repetitive play into your favor.

Playing OVER and OVER and OVER and OVER is something that players should NOT LEARN is a bad thing all on it's own. In our game, if you do that, you just have to focus on the skill component. It's very similar to craps that AP is all in the hand-to-eye coordination. The difference is that ours is designed and proven and approved to actually work.

Most people know that the game can not be beaten mathematicaly, but they still try their luck. They believe that if you throw the dice in a particular manner you can overcome the HE. Unfortunately, they don't realize that it's almost impossible to say wether you have a shot or not. Almost everyone can have a good roll, the players might attribute their good results to the fact that they found a wholly Grail only to find latter that they are still in the same position as they were when they tried to learn how to shoot properly. This process can go on for years without any visible progress. Dice will fool anyone, you might become just another statistics of someone who wanted to beat the game. Some word of encouragement, if you'll ever find the right shot you'll be 30% ahead of any casino.

Quote: Dicenor33

Most people know that the game can not be beaten mathematicaly, but they still try their luck. They believe that if you throw the dice in a particular manner you can overcome the HE. Unfortunately, they don't realize that it's almost impossible to say wether you have a shot or not. Almost everyone can have a good roll, the players might attribute their good results to the fact that they found a wholly Grail only to find latter that they are still in the same position as they were when they tried to learn how to shoot properly. This process can go on for years without any visible progress. Dice will fool anyone, you might become just another statistics of someone who wanted to beat the game. Some word of encouragement, if you'll ever find the right shot you'll be 30% ahead of any casino.

Exactly. And that's why we cranked up the transparency and fairness. You can chart your average payback percentage with ease if you wish as our game gives you four decimal places of information to do just that.

Most people are STILL going to just play and have fun. But being fair and honest and transparent about advantage play from physical skill isn't just an option, it's a requirement.

Everyone wants a fair game any time they might lose. It's that simple.

Adding in AP with fairness still in there for everyone was a chore.

But the demand of the guy who wants to AP craps is what we are trying to serve. It's just pushing buttons at the right time instead of a throw.

I think guys who do AP craps should look into it, because this is actually happening for real. It is.

Quote: mustangsally

it is high school algebra
so the answer is yes
remember the 1 in 43 was over 20,000 lifetime bets and not the 20,000 lifetime rolls (about 6k in total bets)
nasty gut feeling
i get them too when it is hot outside like today

If its simple algebra then why do you need to write a simulation?

Can we please use your 1 in 43 numbers... I guess that was the 20,000 "lifetime" completed pass-line bets?

Quote: mustangsally

... for 20k bets (abouts 68k rolls)
given a loss: -290.8
given a win: 51.9

So the ratio of the 1 in 43 winnings to the average loss of the other 42 is 51.9 to 290.8... about 1 to 6. I guessed 300 to 8000 , about 1 to 26, and your calling this a nasty gut feeling (really bad guess)? My numbers might be a bit out of wack, but ONCE AGAIN, it comes down to semantics;

Would you risk losing 291 to make 52 , only one out of 43 times? SERIOUSLY, that is what you are proposing, and I still say this is WAY beyond reasonably. Am I wrong? Would YOU take that bet? What sane person would take that bet?

If you still say that "there is a chance of being a lifetime winner", then I say that you are twisting words and (perhaps, unwittingly), trying to publicize the fallacy that the casinos want all of us to believe... you're acting as an evil minion for their unbeatable scams!

I just don't get it; when I was playing the game, I did the same thing. Kind of like a cigarette smoker who defends his habit, I guess. But on this forum, it's like a heart surgeon blowing smoke in my face. I think that EVEN THOUGH WE KNOW BETTER, WoV posters often encourage youngsters and novices to start playing craps and other casino games because many of us are in the gaming business... that's like having an uncle who owns the tobacco company.

Edit:

I wonder what happened to ldubs, the novice who started this thread? Hope he didn't jump over the falls after losing his shirt following some of our "friendly advice". I stand by my original claim, and I will bet anyone who wants try try it over 40 years... can I hold the money up-front?

Edit 2: My point was that if you did win at all, it would be a tiny amount. Question, please: In 1000 runs of these 20,000 pass runs, what is the most anyone won? I would guess (yet again), that it won't be very much, like maybe 1000. When I hear "A lifetime winner", that gives me the impression of a big lottery hit, or something significant (I will try to cut down on the shouting).

Quote: discflicker

Would you risk losing 291 to make 52 , only one out of 43 times? SERIOUSLY, that is what you are proposing, and I still say this is WAY beyond reasonably. Am I wrong? Would YOU take that bet? What sane person would take that bet?

Actually 1 in 43 is a lot better than my anecdotal observations over the decades at the rail. That is one person who combines full understanding of the game, patience, win goal/loss limit and appropriate bankroll with a tad of luck. Not to mention wearing the right garments. And the 42 who do not do that.

Quote: SanchoPanza

Quote: discflicker

Would you risk losing 291 to make 52 , only one out of 43 times? SERIOUSLY, that is what you are proposing, and I still say this is WAY beyond reasonably. Am I wrong? Would YOU take that bet? What sane person would take that bet?

Actually 1 in 43 is a lot better than my anecdotal observations over the decades at the rail. That is one person who combines full understanding of the game, patience, win goal/loss limit and appropriate bankroll with a tad of luck. Not to mention wearing the right garments. And the 42 who do not do that.

One of those hats with the green sunshade built-in, lime-green checkered pants, alligator shoes, and a big cigar?

Quote: discflicker

One of those hats with the green sunshade built-in, lime-green checkered pants, alligator shoes, and a big cigar?

Don't bettors often favor the more somber and subdued fashion. In this case, black is definitely beautiful.

Quote: SanchoPanza

Don't bettors often favor the more somber and subdued fashion. In this case, black is definitely beautiful.

I've seen those guys, they mostly sit on a stool on the hook, right in front on the Don't Come box. Mostly big fat guys, but still with the cigar. They don't say anything because they know better, unless everyone on the table is going don't. That happens here in Detroit all the time.

Quote: mustangsally

did you check my ev/sd results table for 1 million bets?
i want to know if it is accurate B4 my next batch of data rolls out

I'll take a look. At least at some of them. Turns into work and I imagine you did it right.

what does it tell us? If EV=one SD then it is clear. The player has gambled so many rounds that his expected outcome matches the outcome of a stroke of luck [good or bad] In order to just break even, he needs to have had a stroke of good luck. That really looks like stupid gambling.

I've never gotten answer to what is reasonable. Personally, to stay within 10% only of one SD seems to work for me. Figuring that out has me backing away from BJ btw.

That's some definition of one SD, hee hee!

Quote:

I bet you do not think it be possible that out of 10,000 players making the pass with 345x or 5x odds only (no pass and come bets)
for 1 million rounds of play there could be even 1 to show a profit over that many bets, given that they can make all those bets, of course, and a computer can do this super easy too

Sally

who are you addressing?

Quote: discflicker

What sane person would take that bet?
...
when I was playing the game,

Does this mean that at one time insane, but now you're cured

It seems you are both in agreement most of the way, but somehow fall apart just short agreeing:
Mustangsally: "play the Pass Line 20,000 times and there is a 97.7% chance of losing money"
Discflicker: "You're not wrong but if that really is the actual probability we must round it up to 100%"

Quote: discflicker

If you still say that "there is a chance of being a lifetime winner"

Again, although she is saying that, she is doing so far more precisely than you giver her credit for, She is saying that "there is a 2% chance of having won money after 20,000 bets." Which to everyone else we read that to mean a lifetime winner if that is the amount of bets you make in a lifetime (Most of us have actually made far fewer than that).

No one is saying a craps game is a good bet, nor even a sane way to spend our time. All that is being said is that it takes more than 20,000 bets until the chance of winning drops below 2%

Quote: discflicker

you're acting as an evil minion for their unbeatable scams!

You mean by using the true math behind the games and not made up math pulled out of a hole on your backside? If everyone understood the actual high-school level math behind these games the casinos would not be able to exist. Yet somehow explaining it to potential customers is helping their scam?

Quote: discflicker

They don't say anything because they know better, unless everyone on the table is going don't.

What do you mean, "they know better?"

I sometimes play the don'ts, and when I do I'm not muzzled, nor intimidated.

I celebrate on a win; why shouldn't I?

I mean, really, WGAS about how anybody else does?

Quote: TomG

If everyone understood the actual high-school level math behind these games the casinos would not be able to exist. Yet somehow explaining it to potential customers is helping their scam?

I think that portraying gambling in practice as math in theory, and then attempting to reconcile the two, is part of the problem. System players carry on with that until they subconsciously stumble upon one "holy grail" after the other; and, the AP's, well, they theorize themselves into practical oblivion.

If the ancient Greek mathematicians eschewed the whole notion of gambling as a math - as they completely ignored even the mention of gambling in their great works - then that's good enough for me. (A modern-day mystery?)

A glorified ring-toss scheme. Looks easy, but you're not allowed to stand over the bottle, and ease it on over.

But it ain't math. Nothing gets solved.

Quote: DoubleOrNothing

I think that portraying gambling in practice as math in theory, and then attempting to reconcile the two, is part of the problem. System players carry on with that until they subconsciously stumble upon one "holy grail" after the other; and, the AP's, well, they theorize themselves into practical oblivion.

If the ancient Greek mathematicians eschewed the whole notion of gambling as a math - as they completely ignored even the mention of gambling in their great works - then that's good enough for me. (A modern-day mystery?)

A glorified ring-toss scheme. Looks easy, but you're not allowed to stand over the bottle, and ease it on over.

But it ain't math. Nothing gets solved.

I agree with you about the system players, and disagree about the AP's. There are a couple dozen on here who are making a decent to incredibly good living knowing the math, and the better they are at the math, the more opportunities they can capitalize on.

Quote: beachbumbabs

I agree with you about the system players, and disagree about the AP's. There are a couple dozen on here who are making a decent to incredibly good living knowing the math, and the better they are at the math, the more opportunities they can capitalize on.

Yes, I think the real AP players do well but its not always "knowing the math" as much as knowing the casino business and knowing their own preferences.

take Pai gow tiles.... I understand its lots and lots of "pushes" and sort of a not to much of a "bank roll robber" game. so if someone learns it cold, plays rapidly without disrupting the game and plays with some black or even orange chips.... he will be proud of his AP status.

He is exploiting far more than math though. Many AP players do well on comps, meals, free plane fares, etc. and an interesting lifestyle.

Quote: mustangsally

Bold move, imo, almost like going all-in at poker.

here is a table of values from ev/sd for 1 million resolved pass line bets (1 unit bet)
for a lifetime of play
(maybe one for pass/come will follow)

due the math and check my checks

Odds	ev/sd
0	-14.14282835
1	-7.470174555
2	-4.948218705
3	-3.681946468
345X	-2.87682532
4	-2.927436676
5	-2.428126858
6	-2.073734476
7	-1.809337649
8	-1.604592548
9	-1.441393863
10	-1.308279217

what does it mean?

checking your math for zero-X, 5x, and 10x, I get the same answers

all the rest look in line

hope to learn something! discflicker has concluded we are proving him right - but as I have said, I don't really have a problem with someone deciding that! Someone concluding they should try to make money playing Craps would be the terrible conclusion.

somewhere in my blog I have preserved Alan Shank's data on SD and average bet too btw

Quote: FleaStiff

Yes, I think the real AP players do well but its not always "knowing the math" as much as knowing the casino business and knowing their own preferences.

take Pai gow tiles.... I understand its lots and lots of "pushes" and sort of a not to much of a "bank roll robber" game. so if someone learns it cold, plays rapidly without disrupting the game and plays with some black or even orange chips.... he will be proud of his AP status.

He is exploiting far more than math though. Many AP's players do well on comps, meals, free plane fares, etc. and an interesting lifestyle.

That's the thing. As many SP's can and do boast the same, albeit in different mumbo jumbo. As many know how to pace their pay checks and/or pension monies. As many waste their time dreaming/lamenting online. And, as few of each ever hit it big in the real world. Most lose their collective shirt.

Drawing each other out - from behind different types of blinders - to the casinos. The AP route is for the analytical players who want a reason to "set sail". The SP route is for the "treasure hunters" who want a way around the kitchen sink pure math stuff. It takes a synergistic combination of the two to go off in a completely different direction. Sweetest wins of all.

The regulars don't have to study up to recognize an ad hoc casino blunder when they see it. Like a couple of kids who patiently empty a gumball machine which gets stuck in the open position. That's being in the wrong place at the right time. An out-of-the-way baccarat side bet which pays for the wrong odds over a quarter-million dollars. Or a million dollar keno patch rebooted every Monday, with the numbers in perennial sequence. Even a big slot win. For every guy who makes it, tens of thousands fail. Same with the AP's. Winning consistently small amounts in a casino is like a heavily armed terrorist walking alone towards the mall. Nowadays, it's, "We run a volume business, so don't have to throw you out the back door anymore."

Of course, the casinos will present a few big quirky winners. The likelihood of little more. Followed in short order by that persistent "abyss of proof" with sound of crickets.

Everybody gets comps who wants 'em. I would call those trinkets casino-AP; not player-AP. More running around. Posting up pictures and complaining of dirty pens in over air-conditioned motel rooms.

System?
(link deleted by mod due to content: suicide in progress, nudity)
0:22

Quote: discflicker

System?

<link deleted>

0:22

*sigh*

I have been having to deal too much with thoughts about people (close to me) dying. I really wish you hadn't posted this. It has disturbed me.

Quote: discflicker

System?
(link deleted by mod due to content: suicide in progress, nudity)
0:22

I can't imagine why you posted this here. Even if the content was acceptable, it's completely irrelevant to this thread.

Quote: beachbumbabs

I can't imagine why you posted this here. Even if the content was acceptable, it's completely irrelevant to this thread.

Thanks. Nobody needed to see that. You tube shouldn't even have that.

Quote: beachbumbabs

I can't imagine why you posted this here. Even if the content was acceptable, it's completely irrelevant to this thread.

All apologies, WoV posters. My morbid side thought this was funny. It IS relevant to this thread, though. I previously suggested this "possibility" when I asked what happened to the novice. He disappeared like 5 days ago, said he was gonna try our 2-3 points system in the NIAGARA FALLS casino, but no WoV posts from him since.

Not funny? Oh well, sorry. This stuff happens all the time at Niagara and the Golden Gate bridge. I don't look at it as "tragic". The "nudity" content".. I didn't even notice that, again, sorry.

OK WoV, I will, in the future I'll try to be more sensitive, I really thought this was FUNNY. My bad.

Quote: discflicker

All apologies, WoV posters. My morbid side thought this was funny. It IS relevant to this thread, though. I previously suggested this "possibility" when I asked what happened to the novice. He disappeared like 5 days ago, said he was gonna try our 2-3 points system in the NIAGARA FALLS casino, but no WoV posts from him since.

Not funny? Oh well, sorry. This stuff happens all the time at Niagara and the Golden Gate bridge. I don't look at it as "tragic". The "nudity" content".. I didn't even notice that, again, sorry.

OK WoV, I will, in the future I'll try to be more sensitive, I really thought this was FUNNY. My bad.

OK, disc, thanks.

Quote: MrV
Alex Karras made millions at craps over a couple months, but then quickly lost it all back to Binion.

So, does a couple months equal "a long period of time?"

Quote: discflicker

NO.

agreed.

how about 5 years?

2nd question: how about 14 years?

tom "home runs are sometimes boring" p

Quote: betwthelines

how about 14 years?

Do tell!

Quote: betwthelines
how about 14 years?

Quote: odiousgambit

Do tell!

This first part is to a small degree "disingenuous" but in any case all below is true:

i have, in $100 increments, been accurately tracking ---and given gamblers' notorious proclivity to exaggerate---or at least remember--- wins while discounting or forgetting about losses, CONSERVATIVELY tracking --- wins and losses at "non local" casinos since 2001 (rounding DOWN wins, rounding UP losses: eg, -$49 to +$99 is a "tie"...+$199 is a "win" of $100...-$101 is a "loss" of $200 [this is not as extreme as it looks: the bankroll is $500, which is, when applicable, often--though not always--"carried over" for several sessions, or even several days and the tracked loss would then not exceed $500...on the other hand a new session might just start over with $500, previous "leftovers" notwithstanding, resulting in the conservative tracking outlined, in short tracking "not in my favor"]}

after 14 years here are the current results:
+ $1,900 <sic>
W 38 L 50 T 6 (40.4 win pct)

unlike my "local" casino results (see below) simply for ease of tracking these are not "sessions" as most of you would think of them, but rather "trips" or "stays" in total...the local results below track, more or less, individual sessions

the above, while, like the below, absolutely the gospel truth, is "to a small degree 'disingenuous'" because when you add in the "local casino" results, tracked in somewhat more detail since bank craps opened there in nov 2003, the "long period of time" to date is an utter disaster...HOWEVER after 5 years and one month these were the local results:
+ $100
W 166 L 343 T 28 (30.9 win pct)
Hours of Play: 3,151

A zenith was reached after almost exactly 3 years in nov of 2006:
+ $10,900 <sic>
W 116 L 217 T 11 (33.7 win pct)
Hours of Play: 1,761


Hence my inquiry: is 5 years a "long period of time"? is 14 years?...probly should ask, what about 3 years?

My losses to date at the local joint are so large that--for now at least-- i am too ashamed and embarrassed to admit them!!...here are some current stats though, 11 years and 9 months on:
- $<redacted>
W 346 L 706 T 57 (31.2 win pct)
Hours of Play: 7,368

Notice that the current win pct while reflecting immense losses is actually higher than it was while still ahead 5 years on...this should tell you something about the importance of session win percentage...

Further since 1974 i have rolled out--taking care to insure randomness--or used wincraps, one roll at a time, to simulate almost 1.7 million rolls...after 1,000,051 rolls the results were + $21.181 <sic>. (never mind the next, so far, 695,781 rolls!)

it should be noted that all of these results were while playing Tough Craps exclusively with a primary objective of winning HUGE and a RELENTLESS progression of both the bets and bankroll won/lost status...Thus the low win pct is expected and endured and the primary reason why there is only one Tough Craps player in the world that plays so exclusively (up to this very point i have previously stated that there are 2 "known" in the world...however the 2nd is lost to the mists of time, is or was most likely oblivious to his membership in the Club of Two, is essentially "unknown" now and, for all i know, may even be deceased...thus, as of just now, i feel at liberty to profess a Club of One...after well over a decade ---13 to 14 years perhaps --- of making this assertion on craps forums, the claim has yet to be challenged)...

the information on this post was put up on another forum in the context of a discussion regarding the possibility of winning at craps over a lifetime...i am certain that it is possible based upon my own statistics (and not probability math, about how that is done i am pretty clueless, trusting merely the published figures which of course had to have been vetted, no?) however there are some competent and respected math guys who have stated that with pass and double odds something like 5% of players would be expected to be ahead after a million rolls, certainly enough to deem a "lifetime" and by sheer luck borne out by my own first million...even so 5% seems on the high side to me...



tom "home runs are sometimes boring" p

Hey THRASB, could you repost your old explanation about tough craps?

I read it before on the now moribund alt.rec.craps board.

Quote: MrV

Hey THRASB, could you repost your old explanation about tough craps?

I read it before on the now moribund alt.rec.craps board.

i can only give it a try...i struggle mightily to describe it in writing clearly but especially succinctly ...although i did do one version on the old alt.rec.craps board that was pretty good and i was happy with but i cant seem to find it...you call that site "moribund": i wasnt even aware that it was still even "active"...while i have tried to edit some of it out, please forgive the logorrhea...but here is a version i posted a while back on another forum:
------------------
You can’t expect to win at bank craps.

But you CAN play tough. This is simply giving the bank the lowest edge possible. In theory this means playing the dp/dc and laying maximum odds. In real play though it means laying the most amount with which you are comfortable.

There is a rail in Michigan that FOR YEARS--possibly for a decade or longer--has and still does offer a FREE <sic> BUY on the 4 & 10. It’s true: $5 only (and sometimes as little as $3) on these numbers will get you $10 ($6) when they hit. The Tough Craps player will play ONLY the 4 & 10 on these tables. I will add here that there are only two known Tough Craps players in the world who play tough exclusively. <<edit: as of just late yesterday 8/30/15 i have decided to chronicle only One Tough Craps player...the reason being the Other is lost in obscurity, probably was unaware even of his membership in a Club of Two and is possibly deceased...in reality he is not "known">> <<snip>>

A good craps player will have a goal and will try to devise a strategy to give herself the best chance to meet that goal. For many players a basic goal is to win dollars at every session. A common strategy is to limit exposure (often unwittingly: most place betters, for example, are innumerately off on the come out roll). The best strategy would be to play the dp/dc with maximum lay. With this strategy and without bet progressions one would win at quite close to half of their sessions on average. Further 99.99% of craps players put much stock in winning PER SHOOTER, some loudly applauding a 7-out after a long run even though the house has just locked up tens, hundreds or even thousands of dollars of their money (the Tough Craps player [for whom this "roll" might indeed not even be over--see below] is sometimes [mildly & he hopes good-naturedly] annoyed by the cry out “nice roll”; there being ONLY ONE roll, only one relevant roll: the next one…and that last one here was not at all “nice“…it was a f**king 7!!…Please. Don’t make too much of this; I completely understand what is “meant“ by the cheering) On the other hand (but NOT in contrast to winning per session, which is anyway a mathematical & usually monetary meaningless concept unless one never plays again), for the Tough Craps player, the goal is to WIN HUGE. There is no win limit. This involves RELENTLESSLY pressing your luck. Thus is the Tough Craps player almost always losing per session and per shooter and per "hand"...the hope, the objective, the thrill is to overcome this with HUGE wins...

The negative skew of the dp/dc bets are not efficient for this objective. Thus with rare exceptions on the dp/dc/lay side the Tough Craps player is on the next best thing: p/c with odds. Now henceforth and when the Tough Craps player talks about a “bet”, he is talking about the odds bet. It is ONLY the free odds bet that the Tough Craps player is concerned with strategically. The line bets are simply vigorish and ignored for strategic purposes; that is to say on a natural come out they are dragged/restored always in the same dollar amount as before and never progressed except as necessary to get the desired odds amount...

Since it is the bet amount when behind, $5 is far and away the most common bet of the Tough Craps player, so we will start with that...here is the TC bet progression: $5->$15or16->$15/16->.$25or26->$40->$50->$75or76->$100->$150->$200->$300->$400->$500->$750->$1000->$1500->$2000->$3000->$4000>$5000->$7500...etc…Larger amounts can be extrapolated: eg $10->$30->$30->$50->$75or80->$100 and so on as above. (the "tough craps fantasy" is to reach the table maximum, which in the case of his local joint is $2500 and was accomplished only once, win it [he didn't] and he would be compelled to fly out or drive some distance to find a house that would book the TC players next bet! REALITY: make no mistake: the Tough Craps player WOULD make those trips...a TC "session" might conceivably last for days)! There is no limit other than a house imposed one.

As is in fact the case with ALL bets on the layout, every odds bet is completely independent from the others. P/odds and c/odds being exactly the same, a progressing come bet will simply move to the pass line on a seven out, seven being a win on this progressing come; the progression will continue. (confirmed place betters may have a poor understanding of the come bet and are generally oblivious to at best or un-leery of the fact that one out of three p/c bets are resolved on the first roll...there is no "number", no point...conflating place bets with come bets is a fallacy). Thus the strategy of the play is COMPLETELY shooter-neutral, shooter agnostic if you will…For the Tough Craps player the “hand” is not over until the last progressing bet has gone out and that can encompass several shooters.

In addition to the bets the bankroll too is itself progressed as well as regressed when, as is most often the case, behind. The TC player is looking for the lowest minimum table he can find and no more than $5 (back in the day he was looking for a quarter craps--i mean a 25 CENTS table, but x-odds is a relevant factor also). Notwithstanding this minimum, the TC player, pressing his luck, will start out at $10 and whenever the win/loss amount is $zero or better (reminder: we are talking about the odds bet; the line bet, subject to vigorish, is ALWAYS <sic> the minimum amount required to get that bet). At this hefty $10 bet and a w/l amount of $0 to +$99 he will not exceed 3 numbers (1 p/odds, 2 c/odds). If the win amount attains +$100 to +$199, he limit himself to 4 numbers, $200-$299, 5 numbers. As for the regression, at -$1 to -$100 he will play the $5 on up to 5 numbers, four numbers at -$101 to -$400 and 3 to as few as one number at -$401 to -$500. The bankroll is $500.

At +$300 to +$499 the TC player aggressively doubles to $20-$60-$60-$100...etc and comes out on up to 3 numbers; at +$500 to +$699, 4 numbers, five numbers at +$700 to +$899.

Also at +$300 the TC player will begin to “drag”, the Tough Craps equivalent of putting money in your pocket or “quitting while you are ahead”. Of course the TC player doesn’t really quit, quit since with progressive betting one could never come out ahead if one just kept at it and never put any money in his pocket. Mathematically and in real dollars, though, it is all one Big Session and then you die.

As you can surmise the bankroll is reckoned in $100 increments. After a hand-ending loss if the win amount falls below $300, even, for example, to $299, one hundred dollars is dragged. One hundred dollars is dragged for each one hundred dollars lost. This can be several hundred dollars as the bankroll progresses as you may see below. In this example, then, even though actually at +$299 with $100 in his pocket the TC player “pretends” the win amount is only $199 and plays accordingly, that is back to $10 and up to 4 numbers. Lose again to a win range of $0 to +$99 and another $100 is dragged. Note that this puts the pretend bankroll now to less than $500 so the bet is $5->$15or$16...etc...Thus the TC player retreats while at the same time locking up some wins (which in reality is just used for the next bankroll after he has lost this one!)

At +$900 to +$1199 the TC gambler goes to an extremely aggressive $30-$100-$100-$150-$200...etc and goes out on up to 3 numbers; +$1200 to +$1499, four numbers; +$1500 to +$1799, five numbers. And so on: the bet is $50-$150-$150-$200 etc, 3 numbers at +$1800 to +$2299...etc…The TC player carries in his wallet a chart with a won amount that goes up to +$40,800 (the bet is $1000-$3000-$3000-$5000 etc).

There is no win limit. Of course the chances of starting at our $5 or $10 and getting to a win of $40,800 are I would imagine not much different than winning a national lottery. But permit me some fun and use it to illustrate how wins are “dragged”.

Ok so we are winning $40,800. Obviously we could “quit”, which might mean not really quit quitting but, for example, pocketing it all and starting over with a fresh $500 bankroll. But if we kept going the bet would be $1000-$3000-$3000-$5000 etc., five numbers. Now, say, at the end of the hand we lose $5000 -- very possible here -- and are now down to +$35,800. We would pocket $5000 and play as if we were really only $30,800 ahead. The bet is now $500-$1500-$1500-etc, 4 numbers. Lose $3000, pocket $3000...And so on. This strategy allows you to retreat while locking up still significant gains but especially keeps you in the big money should yet another monster or near-monster materialize. There is no win limit.

So why would anyone play a strategy where one is “almost always losing?” Good question. The thrill of the occasional (nah. rare) monster win keeps the Tough Craps player going and ever optimistic. It is so damn much fun he almost cant stand it. He hopes to exceed his $13,800 record win session every time he bumps up to the rail.

If anyone has read this far, why? If anyone understands any of this logorrhea and is further the slightest bit interested in more info, please reply…The TC player does have some really quite accurate and illustrative stats that go back to the 1970s...<<edit: some of this was posted in my post of earlier today...
---------------------
yes, i know this all could be made more clear...feel free to ping me with any questions..

tom "home runs are sometimes boring" p

.

Quote: betwthelines

Quote: betwthelines



My losses to date at the local joint are so large that--for now at least-- i am too ashamed and embarrassed to admit them!!...here are some current stats though, 11 years and 9 months on:
- $<redacted>
W 346 L 706 T 57 (31.2 win pct)
Hours of Play: 7,368


tom "home runs are sometimes boring" p

Tom,

If I could be nosy, if you were to go to your local tonight, and duplicate your most profitable shooter/session/trip, would you make up for your 11 year 9 month loss.

I don't play tough craps, but do increase my odds pretty aggressively. My records are similar to yours(I just keep track of $won/lost), and I know over the last 15 years of play(played the ponies before craps hooked me), I'm down about $6k. However I know I was up $9k after 9 years. My 2 biggest session wins were $7k and $11k, so I know I'm just a monster roll away from being ahead lifetime(although I'm not holding my breath)

Quote: wilbsmitt

Quote: betwthelines

Quote: betwthelines



My losses to date at the local joint are so large that--for now at least-- i am too ashamed and embarrassed to admit them!!...here are some current stats though, 11 years and 9 months on:
- $<redacted>
W 346 L 706 T 57 (31.2 win pct)
Hours of Play: 7,368


tom "home runs are sometimes boring" p

Tom,

If I could be nosy, if you were to go to your local tonight, and duplicate your most profitable shooter/session/trip, would you make up for your 11 year 9 month loss.

I don't play tough craps, but do increase my odds pretty aggressively. My records are similar to yours(I just keep track of $won/lost), and I know over the last 15 years of play(played the ponies before craps hooked me), I'm down about $6k. However I know I was up $9k after 9 years. My 2 biggest session wins were $7k and $11k, so I know I'm just a monster roll away from being ahead lifetime(although I'm not holding my breath)

very astute question, wilbsmitt ...alas, and sadly, the answer is "no" other than with "winning-a-national-lottery" like luck...another $13.8k win, i am sorry to say, would not do it

in fact with the one exception that i am going to relate here this 13.8k was my biggest win on either real or simulated action...

...Early on, years--nay decades--before personal computers my simulated tracking was done with real vegas dice thrown into a felt-lined cardboard box with care taken to insure randomness and results written down in spiral notebooks...then, as now, the bet starting point was the lowest minimum that one could realistically find in real casinos (meaning only in nevada at that time), that is to say back then "quarter craps" - meaning 25 cents craps with "full" double odds (later 10x odds became available even at quarter tables but at the point of this true story it was full double odds)...one needed "full" double odds to get your bet (and remember "bet" means the ODDS bet) on the 6 & 8..."full" means that the casinos would allow 3 units to "look like" 5 units for the purpose of taking odds on those numbers and thus the starting line amount was 75 cents, which allowed for 10 units ($2.50) on the 6/8, six units of course on the other numbers...

...thus the initial progression was $1.50(or $2.50)->$4.50 (or $5)->$4.50 (or $5)->$7.50->$10->$15 (or$16)-> and so on, continuing in a similar vein to that shown in my original post...in other words what today takes one (odds) win took 5 straight wins just to get to a $15 bet...and how often do you see a shooter make 5 points? lol...anyway, long story short, one MONSTER continued on to an incredible win of $39+k!!!...$39k at 25 cent craps!!! this included a stretch of 57 rolls without a seven! (as distinguished from shooters' 57+ rolls which almost always include some sevens on the come outs)

to this day this still astonishes me and is a big reason that i remain "hopelessly" hooked on the aggressive progressions of Tough Craps...

tom "home runs are sometimes boring" p

I come close to exclusively betting the line plus odds, but am pretty close also to a flat bettor exclusively.

Lately results have been on the positive side and have reduced my losses to about $200 per year, playing maybe 12-15 sessions a year in maybe 4 trips/yr. I keep good track of wins/losses, but don't keep separate stats on Craps. Some of the action is BJ, a tiny bit UTH. Maybe 95% Craps?

I will say there must be years I have tipped more than $200, but I tip more now than I used to. In any case, tips are a big part of that $200/yr.

Quote: odiousgambit

I come close to exclusively betting the line plus odds, but am pretty close also to a flat bettor exclusively.

Lately results have been on the positive side and have reduced my losses to about $200 per year, playing maybe 12-15 sessions a year in maybe 4 trips/yr. I keep good track of wins/losses, but don't keep separate stats on Craps. Some of the action is BJ, a tiny bit UTH. Maybe 95% Craps?

I will say there must be years I have tipped more than $200, but I tip more now than I used to. In any case, tips are a big part of that $200/yr.

For an intelligent gambler, tips are easily ten times your theoretical. Those drinks aren't free and they do count everything.

Jerry's Nugget is about to buckle on their Red Bull Policy. Last time I went there I saw four people with Red Bulls and they had to ask permission for me to have one.

IE: Drinks easily outweigh theo.

Quote: Ahigh

For an intelligent gambler, tips are easily ten times your theoretical. Those drinks aren't free and they do count everything.

Jerry's Nugget is about to buckle on their Red Bull Policy. Last time I went there I saw four people with Red Bulls and they had to ask permission for me to have one.

IE: Drinks easily outweigh theo.

Is it still 2x odds there? Or did they move back up to 3x 4x 5x odds? I used to like playing there for fun. $3 craps. $3 blackjack. $2 UTH.

Quote: rudeboyoi

Is it still 2x odds there? Or did they move back up to 3x 4x 5x odds? I used to like playing there for fun. $3 craps. $3 blackjack. $2 UTH.

$3 -- double odds, they allow $10 odds on $3 pass line. But you get different answers about can you lay $1200 to win $1000 on a $300 don't pass on the 6/8 point.

I've done max lays here which is to win at most $900 combined from line and odds from the don't or $1500 on the do side with the 4/10.

One dealer told me after I won the $900 that I could have won $1300 by laying $1200 to win $1000 with the $300 don't pass. But another dealer said that you can only win $600 on the don't side no matter what.

I believe field pays double on the 12. They have a Big 6 and a Big 8 and it has plenty of wear on the felt in that section.

$3, $5 place bets on the six eight are very common.

All tall all small is a popular bet (very popular bet) here.

Hopping, hi/lo, yo, hardways hop, etc, all very natural. Long rolls are often the result of the game moving more slowly to service the prop bets.

There is no "proper" number of come bets. It's based on preference and bank roll. I've experimented with having all come bets up and working. It was incredibly difficult to pair back once the table started getting full. When you have a hard time keeping track of your bets, you are too exposed.

I felt more comfortable with bubble craps because I knew exactly what was out there. At a live table, it was nightmarish to keep track and reset.

Quote: Asswhoopermcdaddy

There is no "proper" number of come bets. It's based on preference and bank roll...

obviously preference and bank roll play into it, but the best rational basis is personal goals or objectives...for example if "time at the table" is your main objective, then obviously just one come bet, or just the one pass bet (same thing of course) might be in order...if "plenty of action" is the driver, well then, one might even want to make continuous come bets...if "winning huge" is the goal, then measuring the number and amounts might be guaged by the status of the wins/losses bankroll...

etcetera...

of course one might have more than one objective ---eg, the examples here are not necessarily mutually exclusive--- and it then becomes a personal preference matter of which objective is more important or which "trumps" the other...

In other words start with goal(s) in mind, then work out the "preferences"....

tom "home runs are sometimes boring" p

I think it's a matter of risk. If you are a pass better, then the come bet is a hedge against the 7, not a big one, mind you as you should be backing up your numbers with max odds in order to lower HA.

Someone here should quote some bankroll stuff with the Kelly Criteria, but if your bankroll is x, and your risk of ruin is y, then your bet size should be z to maximize your playing time.

If you are playing with $500, for example, and decide to have a come bet on every roll, there will come many-a-time when you will have 3-4 come bets out there with nothing to show. At a $10 table playing with max odds, that means over $200 out there at a time, far too much with a $500 bankroll, and probably too much with a $2,000 bankroll.

You should have a play length goal and assume 100 rolls an hour. A pass bet will resolve itself in an average of 3.375758 rolls. On a $10 table that's a loss of 4.189 cents per bet per roll with a very wide variance. So if you are working with 3.4 bets out there you are looking at a loss of about 14 cents per roll or $14/hour. The variance on these is about 1.4x the amount bet. So a $280 variance on a working bet is far too huge with a bankroll of $500.

Searching on this forum I found simulations stating that a $1,500 bankroll on a six hour playing budget (600) rolls playing $10 come every roll with max odds would bust out 52% of the time.

I'd be playing with a bankroll of at least $3,000 with that betting strategy and play a four hour session.

Quote: boymimbo

I think it's a matter of risk. If you are a pass better, then the come bet is a hedge against the 7, not a big one, mind you as you should be backing up your numbers with max odds in order to lower HA.

not always as small 20 to 30 unit bankrolls are common and full of land mines

Quote: boymimbo

Someone here should quote some bankroll stuff with the Kelly Criteria, but if your bankroll is x, and your risk of ruin is y, then your bet size should be z to maximize your playing time.

Kelly is funny.

Quote: boymimbo

<snip>
Searching on this forum I found simulations stating that a $1,500 bankroll on a six hour playing budget (600) rolls playing $10 come every roll with max odds would bust out 52% of the time.

I'd be playing with a bankroll of at least $3,000 with that betting strategy and play a four hour session.

killer
scare away almost all low rollers
how about 20 to 30 unit bankrolls
$100 to $150 for the $5
and
$200 to $300 for the $10 and so on and on

where IS Alan Shank?

here is a pic from some data i have around (i know there should be more)
just the 3 point Molly

btw, come odds not working on the come out roll
here is for the 6 point Molly (come all come come come)

also 2
in every one of the zillions of simulations that i have done and completed, every single craps player eventually busted out their starting bankroll... every one... every race... the game due not care who U R.
a nice future, so enjoy the ride

<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
got to see if the Angels (my team) can score some runs and get into 1st place again!
and go OVER tonight
it be HOT in SoCal

let us go fishing...

Mully