Odds on the Don't side -> Bad Play!
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To use your example:
I bet $10 on the Don't Pass and a 4 rolls. I can ignore the odds and take a $10 win two times out of three or a loss once, expecting to win an average of $3.33.
Or I can lay $30 odds after the 4 rolls. I get a $25 win twice or a $40 loss once, still averaging $3.33 per outcome.
It doesn't change the EV. Nor do odds on the Pass line. But any time you can place an even-money bet, one with a zero EV, in a place where the house theoretically has the advantage on every other bet (yes, I know, hot shoes and biased wheels) then you take that to whatever degree you're comfortable.
i would thinkQuote: DJTeddyBearYeah, you're reducing the combined edge percentage, but you're increasing your expected profit DOLLARS!
the bottom line is
what are your chances of showing a net loss after X number of lifetime bets?
the no odds player
has a bunch of work to do to catch up with the always lay the odds player over 10k bets
or make fewer lifetime bets should be easier
these values (%) were calculated and i used the push because they happen
the chance of a NET loss
(with a normally distributed average bet or flat betting)
| lifetime bets | dpass NEVER lay odds | 345x lay odds | diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100 | 53.494579 | 50.500745 | 2.993834 |
| 200 | 56.351737 | 51.136861 | 5.214876 |
| 500 | 61.281629 | 52.203766 | 9.077863 |
| 1,000 | 66.326106 | 53.306363 | 13.019743 |
| 2,000 | 72.814682 | 54.805348 | 18.009334 |
| 5,000 | 83.417973 | 57.696782 | 25.721191 |
| 10,000 | 91.589724 | 60.875644 | 30.71408 |
| 20,000 | 97.455164 | 65.228896 | 32.226268 |
| 50,000 | 99.900031 | 73.238174 | 26.661857 |
added for the pass/come also
i play no favorites except when i do
| lifetime bets | pass NO odds | 345x always odds | diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100 | 51.66933 | 50.950443 | 0.718887 |
| 200 | 55.154561 | 51.482845 | 3.671716 |
| 500 | 60.706249 | 52.475871 | 8.230378 |
| 1,000 | 66.118685 | 53.561426 | 12.557259 |
| 2,000 | 72.912675 | 55.073798 | 17.838877 |
| 5,000 | 83.791069 | 58.03106 | 25.760009 |
| 10,000 | 91.987749 | 61.299714 | 30.688035 |
| 20,000 | 97.686668 | 65.778447 | 31.908221 |
| 50,000 | 99.920523 | 73.986604 | 25.933919 |
And yes, if you play the odds, you're expecting to lose less on your total combined action.
But either way, your actual expected loss is still going to be 1.41% of your flat bet (the even money one).
There are only very specific situations, IMO, where you want to figure out the "combined HE". One being if you wanted to put through X amount of action and wanted to figure out what that would cost you.
Odds is a good bet for most gamblers because it increases the variance...which I believe most gamblers like. I don't mean "good bet" to mean you'll lose less or win more.
If you're on the PL, I say bet at least 1x or 2x your PL bet. If you're on the DP, lay enough to win at least 1x to 2x your flat. Craps is no fun without adding on some free odds!
Quote: mustangsallyi would think
the bottom line is
what are your chances of showing a net loss after X number of lifetime bets?
Well, if you're gonna start talking about the profitability of a lifetime session, the obvious conclusion would be to never set foot in a casino again.
Is that where we're heading?
Quote: lvhoehneHere's a 3rd view. Win 1 flat bet and lose 1 flat bet on the Don't side, you are even. When it comes to odds, win 1 and lose 1, you are still down. The conclusion (finally), if I'm playing Don'ts with table minimums of $10 or more, I am sticking with flat bets only and ditching the odds.
One of two things will happen if you're a don't player:
a) You'll play for a while and realize you're winning a lot more don't points due to 7-outs than you're losing to the shooter hitting the point, and you'll start to think about all the extra money you could have been winning if you had been laying odds, or
b) You won't feel it and you'll stick to flat bets.
Either way your expected loss is the same. A $10 don't bet has a theoretical loss of 14c regardless of whether you lay odds. Laying odds simply makes the wins and losses bigger, which in turn means a greater percentage of your sessions will be winning ones.
for many there is not going to be a difference in a lifetime losing session (total bets made)Quote: DJTeddyBearIs that where we're heading?
of 50%, 51%, 52%, 54% or even 55% (53% maybe)
they are close and most think that is close enough to a 50/50 chance to not to have a net loss from the bets you made and resolved
when the chance to have a loss over a lifetime of bets made approaches 90% or even higher
it better feel so good
or it aint no good
feelin' better
great voice Linda
Quote: mustangsallyfor many there is not going to be a difference in a lifetime losing session (total bets made)
of 50%, 51%, 52%, 54% or even 55% (53% maybe)
they are close and most think that is close enough to a 50/50 chance to not to have a net loss from the bets you made and resolved
when the chance to have a loss over a lifetime of bets made approaches 90% or even higher
it better feel so good
or it aint no good
feelin' better
great voice Linda
You had me up and dancing with that one Sally. Did you enter the WSOP event your were going to? How did you do?
yes, Event #3 and busto in Level #3Quote: kenarmanDid you enter the WSOP event your were going to? How did you do?
hard to go all-in when playing a limit game!
But I won BIG time on my
Angels over
that night when it looked like i was a two time loser
back to the don't odds being a
"BAD PLAY!"
i agree
when BAD = GOOD = BAD
Sally
Quote: lvhoehneSo I am reading through the Wizard's crap strategy and he seems to contradict himself. He recommends going max odds on the Pass, Come, Don't Pass, and Don't Come. For the Pass and Come, I buy it. If you don't catch a 7 or 11 on the initial come out and a point is set, the house has the advantage. Playing odds in this case reduces the house advantage. Now let's look at the Don't side. If the initial bet doesn't get nicked by a 7 or 11 and a point is set, the advantage goes to the player. If I lay odds now, I AM REDUCING THE PLAYER'S EDGE, not the house edge. Another way to look at it. Player makes a $10 Don't Pass bet and a 4 is rolled. Nice position for the player now. Now the player decides to lay $30 odds. Player had a $10 bet that paid $10. Now, the player has a $40 total bet that pays $25. Which is a better value? The $10 bet is a better value, in my opinion. Here's a 3rd view. Win 1 flat bet and lose 1 flat bet on the Don't side, you are even. When it comes to odds, win 1 and lose 1, you are still down. The conclusion (finally), if I'm playing Don'ts with table minimums of $10 or more, I am sticking with flat bets only and ditching the odds.
as a late, great poster would say, "your innumeracy is your own responsibility"
let's assume that you still have money in the rail after your dont bet has fortuitously moved behind the 4 in your scenario...
let us further assume that you plan to continue playing and to make more bets...
you have failed here to ask yourself, "should my next bet be one that is completely free (at this point) and which the bank has no advantage or should my next bet be something where the house has some advantage over me?
your answer and your innumeracy is your own responsibility...tom "home runs are sometimes boring" p
-g. geist: havent you read any of this thread?
--tom p:
---g. geist: this has already been more or less said already on here
----tom p:
-----g. geist: just more of your liking to hear yourself talk...more of your drivel...
------tom p:
is this important to know? and if yes, then why?Quote: MathExtremistEither way your expected loss is the same.
is this also important?Quote: MathExtremistA $10 don't bet has a theoretical loss of 14c regardless of whether you lay odds.
and why not mention variance, is it LESS important, in your opinion
in other words,
to be seen but not heard like small kids
Oh ohQuote: MathExtremistLaying odds simply makes the wins and losses bigger, which in turn means a greater percentage of your sessions will be winning ones.
one only play(s) 1 lifetime session, never more than 1
i still
be still
say laying the odds gives one (or many) a greater chance of NOT being a net loser
than not laying odds over a lifetime of bets
agree or no?
the examples isss
500 dpass bets (same bet or a normally distributed avg bet)
chance of a lifetime loss = 61.281629% (as i pointed out B4)
10,000 dpass bets with 345X lay odds = 60.875644% chance of a lifetime loss
and 10,000 dpass bets with 10X lay odds = 61.084738 chance of a lifetime loss
i see a GIGANTIC difference between the number of lifetime bets that can be made
no odds vs yes odds
but not much of a difference between the amount of odds
interesting to me
Mully
Quote: mustangsallyOh oh
one only play(s) 1 lifetime session, never more than 1
That's true financially but not psychologically. There are a vanishingly small number of gamblers whose utility functions are purely financial. All other things equal, almost everyone would rather make ten trips to Las Vegas and come away with five winning trips of $300 each and five losing trips of $320 each than ten trips each with a $10 loss. It's the same net $100 loss but very different entertainment value.
so what you are really trying to say without actually saying it isQuote: MathExtremistThat's true financially but not psychologically. <snip>
the OP started a thread here
and called out the Wizard, blablabla
and says BAD PLAY!
and in reality it is NEVER a bad play, that can not be said
for all
and all is all that really matters
because you do not care how i play craps and i do not care how you play craps
but Frank S for example says we play craps wrong by making bad bets
but in reality
there is no bad bet for all
and all is what really matters
did you get all of that
in other words
okQuote: SanchoPanzaOr for us non-mathematicians, we can take a simple example.
Let us say our strategy is to try to go up on two don't come numbers for a total wager of $35 each.
this is good
why not just bet $70 on one?
why is that your example betting system?
is it more fun to make many smaller bets than fewer larger bets?
and if yes, how much real $$$ is that worth, in dollars as ME talks about
is that important to know?Quote: SanchoPanzaIf we flat bet at, say, $5, we are presumably paying 7 cents for each "comeout" roll.
if yes, then why?
and how do you know that is all you are paying?
Ah, but in reality is does cost or does payQuote: SanchoPanzaLaying $30 odds would not cost a penny.
because the more 0% edge bets one makes in a lifetime of play
the less chance one has of a net $0 from all those 0% edge odds bets resolved
(in other words, one will either show a net win or a net loss from all those NO COST bets)
i have data showing this too (will post during Angels first inning if they are winning)
the challenge is, of course, do you win or lose $$$ over those free bets
win or lose and not push
AH, i hear bet selection timing makes the difference over at crapsforum
Quote: mustangsallyAh, but in reality is does cost or does pay
because the more 0% edge bets one makes in a lifetime of play
the less chance one has of a net $0 from all those 0% edge odds bets resolved...
I am male and over 35, would you splain this a little more?
I can almost comprehend that the chances are greater, but are they more?
Quote: Richard A. Epstein, "The Theory of Gambling and Statistical Logic", p. 28The law of large numbers has frequently been cited as the guarantor of an eventual head-tail balance. Actually, in colloquial form, the law proclaims that the difference between the number of heads and the number of tails thrown may be expected to increase indefinitely as the number of trials increases, although by decreasing proportions.
To give a coin-flipping example, over 10 flips there's a very good chance that you'll see 5 heads and 5 tails. Over 100 flips there's a much smaller chance to see 50 heads and 50 tails. Over 1,000,000 flips, it's almost impossible to see exactly 500,000 heads and 500,000 tails. However, in 10 flips, when you don't get 5 heads and 5 tails, you might get 4/6 or 3/7. That's a difference of 2 or 4, not a big number but a big percentage. In 100 flips, you might see a difference of 10 (say 45 vs. 55), which is a much larger absolute number but a much smaller percentage. In 1,000,000 flips, ending with 497,500 heads and 502,500 tails is an even larger absolute difference but an even smaller percentage.
OK, One bet, $35.Quote: mustangsallywhy not just bet $70 on one?
Because I have read that two bets is optimal for pass and come. Despite warnings that it fares a bit worse for don't come, it has proven more than nicely viable over quite a few decades.Quote: mustangsallywhy is that your example betting system?
Quote: mustangsallyis it more fun to make many smaller bets than fewer larger bets?
For me, yes. I don't know about the rest of the world.
Sorry, that's just for my hair stylist and the I.R.S. to know.Quote: mustangsallyand if yes, how much real $$$ is that worth, in dollars as ME talks about is that important to know?
if yes, then why?
Quote: mustangsallyand how do you know that is all you are paying?
Implicit faith in the mathematicians.
Win goals are key.Quote: mustangsallyAh, but in reality is does cost or does pay because the more 0% edge bets one makes in a lifetime of play the less chance one has of a net $0 from all those 0% edge odds bets resolved (in other words, one will either show a net win or a net loss from all those NO COST bets)
Too bad they can't explain it any better over there than here.Quote: mustangsallyAH, i hear bet selection timing makes the difference over at crapsforum
Quote: MathExtremistIn short, it means that the longer you play, the less likely it is that the total gain (or loss) from your odds bets are zero. As a percentage of total wagers, that amount will approach zero -- but as an actual number it will grow larger as you play.
To give a coin-flipping example, over 10 flips there's a very good chance that you'll see 5 heads and 5 tails. Over 100 flips there's a much smaller chance to see 50 heads and 50 tails. Over 1,000,000 flips, it's almost impossible to see exactly 500,000 heads and 500,000 tails. However, in 10 flips, when you don't get 5 heads and 5 tails, you might get 4/6 or 3/7. That's a difference of 2 or 4, not a big number but a big percentage. In 100 flips, you might see a difference of 10 (say 45 vs. 55), which is a much larger absolute number but a much smaller percentage. In 1,000,000 flips, ending with 497,500 heads and 502,500 tails is an even larger absolute difference but an even smaller percentage.
Thanks for the explain,
The first time I read it and the quote from Epstein before I saw your synopsis, my head exploded and I had to come back twice. Now it makes sense.
Head still hurts though.
i make money from this bet at partiesQuote: MathExtremistTo give a coin-flipping example,
over 10 flips there's a very good chance that you'll see 5 heads and 5 tails.
most will say the chance is 50/50 to get exactly 5 Heads and 5 Tails in 10 flips (especially after a few drinks)
but after they lose money on it they think again and come up with 5 or more heads is 50/50
(and of course it is higher)
the famous triangle shows this
i thinks row11
1 10 45 120 210 252 210 120 45 10 1
that 252 value is the number of ways to get exactly 5 Heads (and 5 Tails) in 10 flips
so 252/1024 = 0.24609375
less than 1 in 4
for combinations in Excel it B =COMBIN(10,5)
the 1024 is just 2^10 (the total number of outcomes from 10 flips)
can Excel do thatQuote: MathExtremistOver 100 flips there's a much smaller chance to see 50 heads and 50 tails.
0.079589237
12611418068195524166851562157 / 158456325028528675187087900672
YES!
simply amazing how a simple coin flip
can stump the masses
even William Feller pointed this out in his 1st book, and he even mentioned other math gurus
struggled with simple coin flip concepts (simple for him)
again the concept here was losing $0 and losing close to 0% (from 0% HE bets)
they are two totally different animals
like
fire and ice
here is data i haveQuote: petroglyphHead still hurts though.
coin flip 0%
do odds in craps 0%
lay odds in craps 0%
I rounded the data to make some happy
coin flip
should be equal chances after X number of bets to either show a net win or a net loss
note how the chances get lower to lose exactly $0 as many gambling writers want people to believe
(means they do not understand correctly and i no name names right now)
50/50 column is the chance to show a net loss as the same style in my 1st post on page 1
all values are % (except lifetime bets)
| Lifetime bets | 50/50 | lose exactly $0 | win % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100 | 46.021 | 7.959 | 46.021 |
| 200 | 47.183 | 5.635 | 47.183 |
| 500 | 48.217 | 3.566 | 48.217 |
| 1,000 | 48.739 | 2.523 | 48.739 |
| 2,000 | 49.108 | 1.784 | 49.108 |
| 5,000 | 49.436 | 1.128 | 49.436 |
| 10,000 | 49.601 | 0.798 | 49.601 |
| 20,000 | 49.718 | 0.564 | 49.718 |
| 50,000 | 49.822 | 0.357 | 49.822 |
do odds in craps 0%
these 2 should be mirror images of each other (the program i used rounds small values)
| Lifetime bets | take odds 1 unit | lose exactly $0 | win % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100 | 50.144 | 0.333 | 49.522 |
| 200 | 50.103 | 0.230 | 49.668 |
| 500 | 50.065 | 0.146 | 49.790 |
| 1,000 | 50.046 | 0.103 | 49.851 |
| 2,000 | 50.032 | 0.073 | 49.895 |
| 5,000 | 50.020 | 0.046 | 49.934 |
| 10,000 | 50.014 | 0.033 | 49.953 |
| 20,000 | 50.009 | 0.023 | 49.968 |
| 50,000 | 50.004 | 0.015 | 49.981 |
lay odds in craps 0%
| Lifetime bets | lay odds to win 1 unit | lose exactly $0 | win % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100 | 49.522 | 0.333 | 50.144 |
| 200 | 49.668 | 0.230 | 50.103 |
| 500 | 49.790 | 0.146 | 50.065 |
| 1,000 | 49.851 | 0.103 | 50.046 |
| 2,000 | 49.895 | 0.073 | 50.032 |
| 5,000 | 49.933 | 0.046 | 50.020 |
| 10,000 | 49.953 | 0.033 | 50.014 |
| 20,000 | 49.967 | 0.023 | 50.010 |
| 50,000 | 49.979 | 0.015 | 50.006 |
back to my Angels
