bodyforlife
bodyforlife
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May 28th, 2015 at 3:57:42 PM permalink
Unfreakinbelievable!

I was at the Wynn this morning, rolling at a table by myself (the way I like it). One guy comes over and pulls out a $500 chip and says "hop the hard 10". I'm thinking...is he out of his mind. I roll the dice and bam! Hard 10! I swear, my jaw must have dropped to the floor. I just let out a "oh my gawd!" scream (hell, it wasn't even my bet but I just wanted to applaud the guy). I looked at him and said "how in the hell did you know I was gonna roll that...I've never seen anything like that in my life). He said "just dumb luck". I couldn't even think straight and asked the dealer how much he had won. $15k he says and I'm like "Holy shit!". I told him that was effing awesome. He then precedes to bet a 3 way $100 "yo" twice. I didn't hit either and can't say my heart was even racing because I just think those are impossible. Then he throw the dealers a $200 tip and throws me $200 (of course I yelled thanks...it was appreciated but certainly not expected). Anyway, that will be a story for a lifetime (even if it wasn't my bet)
Mikey75
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May 28th, 2015 at 4:09:22 PM permalink
Sometimes that happens!! Sad part is all of the guys I've seen hit a big bet like that turn around and lose it because they keep making stupid bets like that. It's fun to watch them hit though.
GWAE
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May 28th, 2015 at 4:20:11 PM permalink
Quote: Mikey75

Sometimes that happens!! Sad part is all of the guys I've seen hit a big bet like that turn around and lose it because they keep making stupid bets like that. It's fun to watch them hit though.



Yeah that was my reaction. I saw a guy throw 20 on horn hi/lo. I throw the dice and it was 2 or 3. He wins and presses to 50. I throw it again. He presses again and I throw another. I was shocked out of my mind. I am not sure how much money he had but it was a lot. He lost almost all of it before I was done rolling. He was putting hundreds on hard numbers.
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Dicenor33
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May 28th, 2015 at 4:40:30 PM permalink
It's inflation, that what people make these crazy bets. Couple hundreds you win don't make a dent in anyone's budget nowadays. Could never figure out why people play slots or lottery. The chance of a huge win must be the only reason.
GWAE
GWAE
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May 28th, 2015 at 5:03:15 PM permalink
Quote: Dicenor33

It's inflation, that what people make these crazy bets. Couple hundreds you win don't make a dent in anyone's budget nowadays. Could never figure out why people play slots or lottery. The chance of a huge win must be the only reason.



Yes on the lottery but I play slots occasionally for entertainment. Some of them are fun. I know I will lose money but that is ok.
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
Ahigh
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May 28th, 2015 at 5:52:48 PM permalink
I've seen, multiple times, $1,000 hopping hardways hit. The last two times at the Bellagio.

It's been about two weeks ago now, but someone gave me $500 for passing the dice on a $25 table at the Cosmo that resulted in them winning the bonus craps bets for $100 each. I was already up about $300, and I didn't make a single bet while he rolled, and just stood still without saying a word. The chip he tossed put me over my "win limit" for the day, so I was done and went to the cashier following a couple of "thanks so much!"

These folks betting this way just have more money to start with. And there are plenty of folks who have crazy amounts of money without understanding casino math.

Many of them actually enjoy the social feedback that they get from passing out money that means less to them as they part with it than it means to those who receive it.

I had about $2,300 on the rail and was betting with no more than $400 on the felt at a time. So it wasn't like I even looked like I needed it. But he was one-away from hitting the bonus bet on the previous roll and I could tell he wanted to try again, so I passed and just watched.

I think he had about $3,000 when he started his roll, IIRC, but no telling how much credit he had that wasn't on the rail.

Also, that reminds me, Cosmo went back to triple on the 12 in the field.
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AxelWolf
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May 28th, 2015 at 6:23:13 PM permalink
I'm not so sure this strategy is the worst possible strategy. Especially if he quits soon afterwards. People fool themselves into thinking they are playing craps "the proper/smarter way." They pat themselves on the back, meanwhile they spend hours and hours at -EV. Even the guys who supposedly play craps "the proper way" rarely stick to it. They get board and start making worst bets or pumping up their action. Who here that often plays craps hasn't done this?

This guy is exposing his money to a higher HA but for far less time.

You can claim longer entertainment value for "smart play", I'm certain the guy who just hit for 15k will no doubt get some entertainment value. Hell he may buy some fun toy for himself or pay off his car.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
Gabes22
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May 28th, 2015 at 6:31:25 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

I'm not so sure this strategy is the worst possible strategy. Especially if he quits soon afterwards. People fool themselves into thinking they are playing craps "the proper/smarter way." They pat themselves on the back, meanwhile they spend hours and hours at -EV. Even the guys who supposedly play craps "the proper way" rarely stick to it. They get board and start making worst bets or pumping up their action. Who here that often plays craps hasn't done this?

This guy is exposing his money to a higher HA but for far less time.

You can claim longer entertainment value for "smart play", I'm certain the guy who just hit for 15k will no doubt get some entertainment value. Hell he may buy some fun toy for himself or pay off his car.


IMO there are 3 types of people who make a bet like this and sometimes these categories can overlap.
1) The guy with an all or nothing bankroll. Someone who has $500 of $1000 or whatever the amount is and trying to just Hail Mary themselves to a big payday
2) The guy who may have gambled for a large period of his life and is bored with 50/50 bets or
3) The guy who is pretending to be a baller
A flute with no holes is not a flute, a donut with no holes is a danish
surrender88s
surrender88s
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May 28th, 2015 at 7:03:55 PM permalink
Quote: Gabes22

IMO there are 3 types of people who make a bet like this and sometimes these categories can overlap.
1) The guy with an all or nothing bankroll. Someone who has $500 of $1000 or whatever the amount is and trying to just Hail Mary themselves to a big payday
2) The guy who may have gambled for a large period of his life and is bored with 50/50 bets or
3) The guy who is pretending to be a baller



Blessed is the man who is in none of these categories.
"Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Never forget rule No.1." -Warren Buffett on risk/return
Konbu
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May 28th, 2015 at 7:10:20 PM permalink
Reminds me to spend a few dollars on Mega Millions. Tomorrow's jackpot is at $233m.

I know I won't win if I buy, but if I don't buy then I can't win.
I CD-ROM.
Ahigh
Ahigh
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May 28th, 2015 at 7:27:43 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

I'm not so sure this strategy is the worst possible strategy. Especially if he quits soon afterwards. People fool themselves into thinking they are playing craps "the proper/smarter way." They pat themselves on the back, meanwhile they spend hours and hours at -EV. Even the guys who supposedly play craps "the proper way" rarely stick to it. They get board and start making worst bets or pumping up their action. Who here that often plays craps hasn't done this?

This guy is exposing his money to a higher HA but for far less time.

You can claim longer entertainment value for "smart play", I'm certain the guy who just hit for 15k will no doubt get some entertainment value. Hell he may buy some fun toy for himself or pay off his car.



I once made the argument that a single field bet is smarter than placing the six or eight until the seven rolls based on the same basis.

Assuming that coming out ahead 1/6th of your risk at the end is not a great outcome, the field for one roll has the exact same cost as placing the six or placing the eight for six rolls at the same bet amount, and you have a greater probability of coming out ahead by a full unit or more (4/9ths or 44.44% for the field vs 25.16% for six/eight place bet).

Guys that bet this way are betting on the hopes of a very long roll. They're not gambling for the best possible chance to win. And it doesn't matter what they think that they are doing, when your volatility goes down and your cost goes up at the same time, it's something that catches up with you eventually.

Most people have a hard time comparing a strategy with an effective long-term cost and lowered volatility to a single bet. But even stupid single bets often are far better than any strategy that suffers from compound edges (especially those that press up the wins).
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guitarmandp
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May 28th, 2015 at 10:38:05 PM permalink
There's a guy where I play that frequently throws in 4 purple chips and hops the hardways for $500 each. I've seen it hit, he gets paid 13K or whatever and then he presses it to $1,000 on each hardway netting him a cool 39 grand
NokTang
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May 28th, 2015 at 10:50:20 PM permalink
Quote: guitarmandp

There's a guy where I play that frequently throws in 4 purple chips and hops the hardways for $500 each. I've seen it hit, he gets paid 13K or whatever and then he presses it to $1,000 on each hardway netting him a cool 39 grand



You have seen him win and get paid the $39,000.usd? A hopping hard way bet of $1000.usd would exceed the limits in many joints?
guitarmandp
guitarmandp
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May 28th, 2015 at 11:37:31 PM permalink
Quote: NokTang

You have seen him win and get paid the $39,000.usd? A hopping hard way bet of $1000.usd would exceed the limits in many joints?



He gets paid $13,000 on the first hit I believe and then after he presses it he gets $26,000 for a $39,000 total. At Caesars $10,000 is the maximum bet with $30,000 being the maximum payout
odiousgambit
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May 29th, 2015 at 2:31:20 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

I'm not so sure this strategy is the worst possible strategy.



I think it is mathematically valid to say it gives you the best chance of winning the bet in -EV , and the worst for +EV

In my own experience, -EV, it seems the best chance to win and the best way to put your bankroll at risk too
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
NokTang
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May 29th, 2015 at 5:06:13 AM permalink
Quote: guitarmandp

He gets paid $13,000 on the first hit I believe and then after he presses it he gets $26,000 for a $39,000 total. At Caesars $10,000 is the maximum bet with $30,000 being the maximum payout



$10,000.usd is the maximum on the pass or don't pass line? What a bunch of pussy's. That could not be true in Baccarat? or for that matter, Black Jack??
Dicenor33
Dicenor33
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May 29th, 2015 at 5:09:56 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

I'm not so sure this strategy is the worst possible strategy. Especially if he quits soon afterwards. People fool themselves into thinking they are playing craps "the proper/smarter way." They pat themselves on the back, meanwhile they spend hours and hours at -EV. Even the guys who supposedly play craps "the proper way" rarely stick to it. They get board and start making worst bets or pumping up their action. Who here that often plays craps hasn't done this?

This guy is exposing his money to a higher HA but for far less time.

You can claim longer entertainment value for "smart play", I'm certain the guy who just hit for 15k will no doubt get some entertainment value. Hell he may buy some fun toy for himself or pay off his car.

It's a great point. You will loose your shirt if you can not stop at some point. Knowing that you are making "a bad" bet automatically allows you to quit, because you "know" it's a bad bet.
Dicenor33
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May 29th, 2015 at 5:23:48 AM permalink
Let's put it a different way, it's easier to get addicted when exposing the low HE. "I play for fun" is a typical answer of slot machine players, because they came to loose, not to win. Grandmas are BETTER players, because they will loose less over their lifetime of visiting the casinos
spr1000
spr1000
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June 1st, 2015 at 3:51:00 PM permalink
Great story man! That's beauty of playing craps. No other game table in the casino will other players tip you if they win it big. It's almost as if you're a stockbroker when you shoot the dice. Making people money on their investments.
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