Full odds compared to no odds: comparing apples to apples

On the Don't Pass taking full odds, the average bet is 5 units (or so I'm told).

Can someone compare betting DP laying full odds to DP with no odds but with 5 units? In other words, I want to understand the effect of laying odds controlling for the total amount of the bet, which is 5 units.

What is the variance of both approaches? What is the edge? How likely am I to double my money with a bankroll of 10 units? Of 100 units? And how long will it take me?

Comps are better when you bet 5 units on the DP as opposed to 1 unit on DP and 4 (on average) on the odds. What other differences are there?

Thanks.

House edge on the DP is about 1.4% I believe.
If you Lay 6x odds (6x works perfectly for a 3-4-5x table) you will reduce that House edge to around .3%

So laying 6x odds is the 'better' play.

However, if you make a 7 unit bet on the DP, you are a 1:2 underdog on the Comeout roll (win on 2,3 - lose on 7,11).
If you make it past that roll, then you have a big advantage. You will get paid 1:1, when the true odds of you winning are
2:1 (4&10), 3:2 (5&9), and 6:5 (6&8).

Personally, if I am playing on a table where I need to play the dark side and I am not seeing a lot of comeout 7s and 11s, I will take the chance and play the DP for the higher amount, and not Lay the odds. The math says this is the wrong play, but I really like getting paid 1:1 when the point was a 4, and the shooter just went out.

Assume a $25 unit. If you bet DP for $25 and then Lay $150 on the point of 4, you would get paid $100 for a 7 out.
Put the full $175 on the DP, and the shooter goes 7 out on the point of 4, you win $175. Same amount was at risk.
However, on the comeout 7 or 11, with the first you only lose $25, with the second, you lose $175, and again, you are a 2:1 underdog to lose that bet on the comeout.

I'm sure some of the math folks will be glad to point out exactly how much more you can be expected to lose by making the big DP bet, as opposed to Laying the 6x odds.

Quote: RaleighCraps

House edge on the DP is about 1.4% I believe.
If you Lay 6x odds (6x works perfectly for a 3-4-5x table) you will reduce that House edge to around .3%

So laying 6x odds is the 'better' play.

Really? Sorry, your expected loss does not change.

Can we try again, apples to apples?

Quote: RaleighCraps

House edge on the DP is about 1.4% I believe.
If you Lay 6x odds (6x works perfectly for a 3-4-5x table) you will reduce that House edge to around .3%

So laying 6x odds is the 'better' play.

Quote: DeMango

Really? Sorry, your expected loss does not change.

Can we try again, apples to apples?

Please stay in the context it was written in, although I will admit I could have written it more clearly.....

Laying 6x odds is the better play,[ as opposed to putting 7 units directly on the DP.]

Agreeable now ? ;-)

Oooookay!

Thanks for pointing out the ambiguity of my original post.
What you read, and what I meant, were certainly not the same thing.

Quote: DeMango

Really? Sorry, your expected loss does not change.

Can we try again, apples to apples?

I think you are wrong. The expected loss is the same if you flat bet 1 unit on the DP or 1 unit on DP with full odds. The expected loss is five times larger with 5 units on the DP compared to 1 unit on the DP with full 6X odds (average bet 5 units).

Correct? Mustang Sally?

Quote: longtimelancer

I think you are wrong. The expected loss is the same if you flat bet 1 unit on the DP or 1 unit on DP with full odds. The expected loss is five times larger with 5 units on the DP compared to 1 unit on the DP with full 6X odds (average bet 5 units).

Correct? Mustang Sally?

1 on the line with max lay is the same as 1 on the line with zero lay (regarding expected loss).

Not sure why you want MustangSally's advice. She'll twist words and math around to make you think the opposite of what is true.

Quote: longtimelancer

On the Don't Pass taking full odds, the average bet is 5 units (or so I'm told).

Can someone compare betting DP laying full odds to DP with no odds but with 5 units? In other words, I want to understand the effect of laying odds controlling for the total amount of the bet, which is 5 units.

A third of those bets will resolve in one roll of a 2,3,7,11 or 12.

So the average bet for a $5 DP with 3,4,5 odds will be very close to three units. Not five.

A more accurate comparison would be DP with 3,4,5 odds vs DP with no odds, but three units.

Either way, the HE for the $5 DP with 3,4,5 odds is 0.27%, and for any DP with no odds it will be 1.4% for resolved bets.

This article has the answer your question about doubling.

Alan Krigman

Quote: Tanko

A third of those bets will resolve in one roll of a 2,3,7,11 or 12.

So the average bet for a $5 DP with 3,4,5 odds will be very close to three units. Not five.

i say no way
$10 dpass
lay odds = $60 on a 345x odds table

1/3 of the time the $10 is resolved (i count ties)
1/3 * $10 = $10/3

that makes 2/3 * $70 the point round average = $140/3
140 + 10 = 150
/3 = 50 or 5X the flat bet

i could be wrong here
so i agree with OP

Quote: Tanko

A more accurate comparison would be DP with 3,4,5 odds vs DP with no odds, but three units.

i say no way
that is a worse compare example
yuck

Quote: Tanko

This article has the answer your question about doubling.

Alan Krigman

except it is about the pass line and not the dont pass
and Alan has a few mistakes i will not point out
because he is dead
and maybe

yes, someone changed his article to make him now look bad because he is dead

ok
leave the dead out of current discussions
i says
Sally

Quote: RS

Not sure why you want MustangSally's advice. She'll twist words and math around to make you think the opposite of what is true.

where your proof?

Oh
you are that one that believes, wrong btw, that the odds bet is a wash over a lifetime of play for any player
so wrong there!

the prob decreases as the number of bets increases to lose exactly $0
but the average gain converges to 0% not $0
hehe

buts you know that

too bad
so sad

Katy says
ROAR!

Quote: mustangsally

i say no way
$10 dpass
lay odds = $60 on a 345x odds table

1/3 of the time the $10 is resolved (i count ties)
1/3 * $10 = $10/3

that makes 2/3 * $70 the point round average = $140/3
140 + 10 = 150
/3 = 50 or 5X the flat bet

i could be wrong here
so i agree with OP
i say no way
that is a worse compare example
yuck

Quote: Tanko

This article has the answer your question about doubling.

Alan Krigman

except it is about the pass line and not the dont pass
and Alan has a few mistakes i will not point out
because he is dead
and maybe

yes, someone changed his article to make him now look bad because he is dead

ok
leave the dead out of current discussions
i says
Sally

As I see it, you are totaling (24X$35)+$60 and dividing that by 36. $900/36=$25

That's not the average bet.

None of those bets behind the numbers were resolved.

Every bet that goes behind a number must be resolved and the next bet must be on the DP.

If the $5 DP goes to the 4 with $30 odds, it will be resolved by either another 4 or a 7.

Then you will have another $5 on the DP waiting to be wagered on the next roll.

That is now two wagers for a total of $35 and an average wager of 17.50

It would take a minimum of 59 wagers to resolve all 36 numbers between 2 and 12, for total wagers of $895, or an average bet of $15.17

If you have WinCraps you can sim this.

Mr. Krigman's article finished with an example of a $10 bet with $40 odds.

The difference in the EV between the PL and the DP is fractional.

I trust that his percentages for longevity with the given bankroll also apply closely for the DP.

Hi Longtimelancer, in my opinion you should never Lay Odds in a DP/DC bet. After the point is established, you have a slight advantages on the house (only after the point is established!) That´s why the let you pick up your DP / DC bets anytime you want (and the oposite happens in a Pass/Come bet). Laying odds in a DP / DC bet will reduce your overall performance, even thought is statistically neutral (no HE). I would recommend increasing the size of your DP / DC bets instead of laying odds in the dark side.

Kind regards.

Quote: Sepu

Hi Longtimelancer, in my opinion you should never Lay Odds in a DP/DC bet.

and the opinion of many dont players too

Quote: Sepu

After the point is established, you have a slight advantages on the house

only slight? how about between 9% to 33%. but you say slight and others say a big advantage.
i guess it is all relative

Quote: Sepu

Laying odds in a DP / DC bet will reduce your overall performance,

show exactly how this is done
i never heard this B4
********************
i have heard that adding water to your gas tank will make the fuel gauge show you have more gas in the gas tank
but your performance will (may) suffer.

i changed a DS4 headlight bulb all by meself too

Quote: Sepu

even thought is statistically neutral (no HE).

in other words
the casino will pay the lay odds exactly what the odds against the bet is. IS.

example
point is 4 so the dpass lay odds has 3 ways to lose against 6 ways to win
3:6 or 1:2
so for every 2 bet they pay you 1
a perfectly fair bet as one wins 2 out of 3 times on average

they will not short pay you 1 cent, unless you make an improper bet.
that sounds FAIR to me
as casinos currently short pay the dont flat bets at a rate of $27 per $949 won (not all one bet of course)
the beauty of the house edge
the 0% odds will pay $949 per $949 won
no short pay rules apply

Quote: Sepu

I would recommend increasing the size of your DP / DC bets instead of laying odds in the dark side.

Kind regards.

bet more so the casino pays you less on a win. sounds fair to me too

of course a 1:1 payout on the flat bet is not fair

casinos love this type of betting!
lots of comps too that can far exceed the expected loss of 1.4% on the total bet
Oh, that should be a secret too
Sally

Quote: RaleighCraps

House edge on the DP is about 1.4% I believe.
If you Lay 6x odds (6x works perfectly for a 3-4-5x table) you will reduce that House edge to around .3%

So laying 6x odds is the 'better' play...

Hi Raleigh Craps, your post is great, but this assumption is totally wrong. You are not taking into account the inter-temporal resolvment of this bet if your outcome is this probability... This assumption is wrong, because you can only lay odds after the point is stablished. Once the point is stablished, your reasoning is 100% right because you have an edge over the house (6/5 probability of winning with a 100% payment). So if you lay odds, even it is statistically neutral (because it pays the reverse of the probability of occurrance), it will reduce your edge over the house to virtually none, becoming a random bet like every other random bet.

NEVER LAY ODDS PLAYING ON THE DARKSIDE!!!

Quote: Sepu

So if you lay odds, even it is statistically neutral (because it pays the reverse of the probability of occurrance), it will reduce your edge over the house to virtually none, becoming a random bet like every other random bet.

correct
it reduces the edge (the combined edge)

but

that lower combined edge is over a larger average bet (duh!)

the EV does not change

this has been talked about B4 many times
too late for the party, i am

right RC

Craps is ALL about EV

Quote: Sepu

NEVER LAY ODDS PLAYING ON THE DARKSIDE!!!

nice opinion
why so loud!
i say NEVER EVER MAKE A DON'T PASS OR DON'T COME BET

they are both sucker bets
Lay bets rule!
right RC
Mully

Quote: Sepu

Laying odds in a DP / DC bet will reduce your overall performance, even thought is statistically neutral (no HE). I would recommend increasing the size of your DP / DC bets instead of laying odds in the dark side.

But increasing the flat bet would expose you to more of the 1.4% house edge. If you want more action than the table minimum, it would seem advisable to lay down greater odds bets. Especially in casinos that rate odds bets.

Quote: SanchoPanza

But increasing the flat bet would expose you to more of the 1.4% house edge.

you have better comps that can make up the difference if you use them.

the OP ask a few questions

here
$1000 buy-in (Sally fronts the $$$$)

Player A (call him Frank) makes $50 dpass bets only
no odds
as they are sucker bets, so many say and this Frank agrees (to fit in)
so basically has 20 betting units and wants to double the $1k to $2k and cash out (time is not a factor)
and spend all that cash!
====================
what are his chances?
greater than 40% or less than 40%
====================
the answer should be a / (a+b)
a = (949/1925)^20
b = (976/1925)^20

Now Player B (call her Mary)
makes $10 dpass bets and always lays $60 odds against the established point
(has 100 betting units)


what are her chances to double her $1000 bankroll with an average bet of $50?
greater than 40% or less than 40%
better than Franks or the same or worse?

say they play at the same table to watch each other (yuk)
the math is a bit more difficult for Mary
as Franks
(buts can B done as well as a sim, hmmm... maybe that one first
Bankroll was busted . . = 53.327% of the time ( 533273))

ok
who has the better chance to double?
does it matter who?
can they both double (and one faster than the other)

see you after the games tonight
go Angels!
score runs!
Sally

Quote: mustangsally

and the opinion of many dont players too
only slight? how about between 9% to 33%. but you say slight and others say a big advantage.
i guess it is all relative
show exactly how this is done
i never heard this B4
********************
i have heard that adding water to your gas tank will make the fuel gauge show you have more gas in the gas tank
but your performance will (may) suffer.

i changed a DS4 headlight bulb all by meself too
in other words
the casino will pay the lay odds exactly what the odds against the bet is. IS.

example
point is 4 so the dpass lay odds has 3 ways to lose against 6 ways to win
3:6 or 1:2
so for every 2 bet they pay you 1
a perfectly fair bet as one wins 2 out of 3 times on average

they will not short pay you 1 cent, unless you make an improper bet.
that sounds FAIR to me
as casinos currently short pay the dont flat bets at a rate of $27 per $949 won (not all one bet of course)
the beauty of the house edge
the 0% odds will pay $949 per $949 won
no short pay rules apply
bet more so the casino pays you less on a win. sounds fair to me too

of course a 1:1 payout on the flat bet is not fair

casinos love this type of betting!
lots of comps too that can far exceed the expected loss of 1.4% on the total bet
Oh, that should be a secret too
Sally

Hey RS, I will give you the proof you need mustangsally is a Math Neophyte That she over estimates his calculus capacity and doesn´t even have a clue about what she´s talking about (assuming you are a girl) or doesn´t have a clue about the game dynamics at all. Now mustangsally, if you didn´t have a Smat_ss and Know-It-All approach to answer another bloggers inquires, being so sarcastic, I wouldn´t need to be this rude about my assertions, so take this post only for educational purposes.

Analyzing most of your assertions on this post, I can deduce only 2 things: first, that you really don´t understand the dynamics of the game at all, which I priorly advanced.
The second, should be that you are an employee of casinos and are giving to people misguided advice in order to confuse them and make them waste their money in casinos. The later one I discarded because I spent sometime reading some of your posts and realized that you are trying to help people and performing calculations on your time to help solve other players problems, which I consider is pretty cool. Therefore, I consider you are a good will person and don´t trust that much in conspiracy theories. The thing is that you also have to understand that most people feel humbled by mathemathics and have a really hard time understanding complex calculus. Is our responsibility (you, I and others that do understand and have our lives dedicated to that) to try to help others reduce the barriers and make the math make sense and concepts understandable to people. Specially when we participate in blogs such like this, where people with the same interests share the experiences and concerns, generating an outcome that´s bigger than the sum of all the parts.

I wrote in a prior post that math is always right but sometimes doesn´t make sense. And this is a clear example of that. Another example is the one you gave about the gas. Statistically, in your post adding gas to a car fuels the tank to 100% percent. But rationally, it destroys the car engine and performance. Therefore, statistically are numbers without meaning. The meaning of the outcome in statistics should be add into proper contest and restrictions to have a proper analysis and hence, take decisions upon them. Trust me I ´m an economist (with a PhD and Master in econometrics and all that crap) and been working in statistics in many different developing countries for the past 15 years. I know you think you are smarter than everyone, and therefore you are always right and never miss a chance to show off your great skills and over the top intelligence but I got news for you: You are not. And I think that everyone in this blog will love to see a member with the great skills and participation as mustangsally have but with a little of humility and trying to help others, instead of showing herself/himself

I would do the reasoning why I think you are totally wrong and then answer your quotes on my words one at the time, so you can get a complete picture of what I wrote and why I wrote it.

1) The only reason why we share all these experiences, calculus, bet systems and DI techniques is because we hope or we have the illusion that we will be able to beat the casino at his own games. We are trying to find a system that works, spending thousands of hours and tons of money in order to develop a system that works and can help us achieve this goal.

2) If we ever find a betting working system or are in a situation were we have a slight advantage on the house (counting cards, shooting techniques?) we will hold to it and exploit as long as it´s legal.

3) To lay odds on a DP/DC bet the point should be properly stablished. Therefore, there is no opening shot when we take the decision of laying odds. This affects drastically all the returns calculus and probabilistic analysis at the time to choose into context whether to lay odds or not.

4) After the point is stablished, al the DP/DC edge have an advantage on the house, getting higher returns than the probability of occurrence. Seven is most likely to come out than any other number were the point is stablished and the payment is 1 to 1, hence, higher than the reverse of the probability of occurrence. Therefore, there is no HE or negative HE or Player Edge at this point, if you prefer to call it. This is the main reason why the house let you retrieve your DP/DC bets anytime. Try to pick up a Come or Pass bet once the point is stablished and you see how many uses the stickman can give to that stick...

5) At this point, You have a bet on the table with a Player Edge. One of the rarely few, if any you will be when facing a Casino. Which takes me back into 1), if you are ever in a situation were you can win free money, exploit it and hold to it as much as you want.

6) Laying odds is statistical neutral. If you have and odd of 6/5 and it pays you 5/6 (in the darkside for 6s & 8s, the oposite when you are betting on winner bets), in the long term nor you or the casino will win money on this kind of bet. Wether you are playing in the darkside or in the "good side" -This reminds me to Star Wars... We could use Force Side! hahahah-. But the overall impact in your bet strategy is completely different depending on the context. For instance, if you are playing on a winner strategy, laying your odds in a pass or come bet, reduces the house edge. The bigger the odds you play, the more the House's Edge shrinks (3x, 20x, 100x) becoming a more random game. If you have a large bankroll, in the long term, nor you nor the house will win money with very large odds on the table.

7) Now in the Darkside, it works completely the opposite way. As stated in 4) we have a Negative House Edge, or a Players Edge (A very large advantage, at least accounting to Sally) and it was the whole objective stated in 1). Laying odds (and accepting getting paid less money for your odd bet than the base bet!) will reduce the overall Player's Edge. Hence, favoring the house. You will lose more money, for a lesser payment, increasing the odds of the house to win money on you. Therefore, we were in the situation stated in 2) and instead of taking advantage of it, we are returning the edge to the house, hence, letting go our advantage.

8) You can also see an example of what I'm saying on how the house behaves on your betting pattern:
* You will never be allowed to increase the base of DP/DC bet.
* You can increase your P/C bases bet at anytime.
* You can pick up at anytime of the roll your DP/DC bet.
* You can not pick up your P/C bases before the point is resolved (winner or loser!)

9) By doing this (laying odds in the darkside), you are reducing your probability of winning to Casino and lowering the Edge you had over the house once you got to point. I would never recommend to anyone, once you got to the situation you were looking from the beginning ( points 1 and 2) to voluntarily let go this advantage, hence, reduce the return on your money, hence reduce your overall performance. From a rational standpoint of view, it makes no sense and the Casino know about this.

10) I will do the math as simple as possible intending that anyone can understand it.

1) point was established
2) you have 3 options:
Scenarion A
a) point is 6 or 8: You have a probability of winning of 6/5 and the payment is 1-1 (instead of 5-6, which would be with no house edge!)
b) point is 5 or 9: You have a probability of winning of 3/2 and the payment is still 1-1 (instead of 2-3, which would be with no house edge!)
c) point is 4 or 10: you have a probability of winning of 2/1 and the payment is still 1-1 (instead of 1-2, which would be with no house edge!)

If you add odds to your base don't pass bet, statistically the bet has no HE, but reduces the edge you have in that scenario. For instance if you add 10X odds to your dark side bet, the edge moves to the next scenario B:
a) for a point 6 or 8: you have in total an 11x bet and the payment will be 1-1 on the base and 5-6 on the odds, which reduces the edge you have... Overall payment would be 10 x 56-60 (which is less than 1-1, hence reducing your edge!)
b) point is 5 or 9: your total bet is 11x and the payment will be 1x 1-1 and 10x 2-3, overall payment will be 10 x 23-30, which is much less than 1-1 (almost the reverse of the 3/2 probability you have of winning, hence reducing your edge in the house)
c) point is 4 or 10: your total bet is 11x and the payment will be 1x 1-1 and 10x 1/2, overall payment will be 10 x 12-20, which is almost half of 1-1 (almost the reverse of the 2/1 probability you have of winning, hence reducing your edge in the house)

With numbers, the same scenario.
Scenario A: You only play on the bases. You have 11 unit on your base don´t pass bet in order to compare and the point is established.
a) point is 6 or 8: You have a probability of winning of 6/5 and 11x units in your DP/ DC bet with no odds. If you win (which is more likely for the 6/5 probability!) you win 11 units. If you lose, you lose 11 units...
b) point is 5 or 9: You have a probability of winning of 3/2 and 11x units in your DP/ DC bet with no odds. If you win (which is more likely for the 3/2 probability!) you win 11 units. If you lose, you lose 11 units...
c) point is 4 or 10: you have a probability of winning of 2/1 and 11x units in your DP/ DC bet with no odds. If you win (which is more likely for the 2/1 probability!) you win 11 units. If you lose, you lose 1 units...

In the scenario B with odds on your bet,
a) point is 6 or 8: You have a probability of winning of 6/5 and 1x unit in your DP/ DC bet and 10x units in odds. If you win (which is more likely for the 6/5 probability!) you win 9,33 units. If you lose, you lose 11 units...
b) point is 5 or 9: You have a probability of winning of 3/2 and 1x unit in your DP/ DC bet and 10x units in odds. If you win (which is more likely for the 3/2 probability!) you win 7,67 units. If you lose, you lose 11 units...
c) point is 4 or 10: you have a probability of winning of 2/1 and 1x units in your DP/ DC bet and 10x units in odds. If you win (which is more likely for the 2/1 probability!) you win 6 units. If you lose, you lose 11 units...

Now same money you risk, with less payment you get, even though statistically is a bet with no House Edge, hence, should be an attractive bet. But it makes no sense at all...

Good Luck with your betting

Quote: mustangsally

and the opinion of many dont players too
only slight? how about between 9% to 33%. but you say slight and others say a big advantage.
i guess it is all relative

I say a slight advantage because I don´t want any other player to believe that they found the fountain of youth or the perpetual movement machine and get a mortgage on their house in order to become a billionaire in one trip of Vegas and lose everything.

Quote: mustangsally

show exactly how this is done
i never heard this B4
********************
i have heard that adding water to your gas tank will make the fuel gauge show you have more gas in the gas tank
but your performance will (may) suffer.

I already did on the prior post. Nice example of statistical nonsense. Statistically, is correct. You car will have a 100% filled fuel tank. But I wouldn´t do it in my car at all or merely recommend it because it makes statistical sense ;-)

Quote: mustangsally

i changed a DS4 headlight bulb all by meself too
in other words
the casino will pay the lay odds exactly what the odds against the bet is. IS.

Good for you. They are such nice guys!!! Ask them to increase the Base on your DC/DP bet... And them let know.

Quote: mustangsally

example
point is 4 so the dpass lay odds has 3 ways to lose against 6 ways to win
3:6 or 1:2
so for every 2 bet they pay you 1
a perfectly fair bet as one wins 2 out of 3 times on average

Perfectly fair... if you don´t take into account where you are coming from. Next time my Hockey Team is in a Power Play I would ask the Coach to sit one of the player so we are even and with no edge in the field... It makes no sense at all. Even though, statistically neutral.

Quote: mustangsally

they will not short pay you 1 cent, unless you make an improper bet.
that sounds FAIR to me
as casinos currently short pay the dont flat bets at a rate of $27 per $949 won (not all one bet of course)
the beauty of the house edge
the 0% odds will pay $949 per $949 won
no short pay rules apply
bet more so the casino pays you less on a win. sounds fair to me too

Again, your post is wrong. They will pay you the reverse amount of your probability, Which is good when the odds are against you, and not that good when the odds favor you.

Quote: mustangsally

of course a 1:1 payout on the flat bet is not fair

It is if the probability of occurrence is 1 to 1, like flipping a coin. In this case, it will also be statistically neutral, with no HE, like the odds your are proposing. But again, statistics without a context are just plain number without meaning. Moreover, if you are at the point of deciding wether to lay odds or not, you are in a position to have an advantage over the house. My advice would be: Stick to it, don´t ruin it.

Quote: mustangsally

casinos love this type of betting!
lots of comps too that can far exceed the expected loss of 1.4% on the total bet
Oh, that should be a secret too
Sally

Again, if they love it so much, ask them to increase the base bet on your DC/DP bets and then see what happens. Or the opposite, ask them to reduce the bet on the P/C bets... You are so smart, that I get blush writing to you!!! You really seem to be a Casino Emissary, contrary to my prior post... Poor Casinos, they have 1 bet in all of the tables that they are at disadvantage, at least for one moment! Let's go all an help and donate some funds, so the Casino's can keep squeezing money from us!

Good luck in your gambling to! Do they make you pay on your bets? Or it's just on the House?

Sepu

Quote: Sepu

Hey RS, I will give you the proof you need mustangsally is a Math Neophyte That she over estimates his calculus capacity and doesn´t even have a clue about what she´s talking about (assuming you are a girl) or doesn´t have a clue about the game dynamics at all. Now mustangsally, if you didn´t have a Smat_ss and Know-It-All approach to answer another bloggers inquires, being so sarcastic, I wouldn´t need to be this rude about my assertions, so take this post only for educational purposes.

Analyzing most of your assertions on this post, I can deduce only 2 things: first, that you really don´t understand the dynamics of the game at all, which I priorly advanced.
The second, should be that you are an employee of casinos and are giving to people misguided advice in order to confuse them and make them waste their money in casinos. The later one I discarded because I spent sometime reading some of your posts and realized that you are trying to help people and performing calculations on your time to help solve other players problems, which I consider is pretty cool. Therefore, I consider you are a good will person and don´t trust that much in conspiracy theories. The thing is that you also have to understand that most people feel humbled by mathemathics and have a really hard time understanding complex calculus. Is our responsibility (you, I and others that do understand and have our lives dedicated to that) to try to help others reduce the barriers and make the math make sense and concepts understandable to people. Specially when we participate in blogs such like this, where people with the same interests share the experiences and concerns, generating an outcome that´s bigger than the sum of all the parts.

I wrote in a prior post that math is always right but sometimes doesn´t make sense. And this is a clear example of that. Another example is the one you gave about the gas. Statistically, in your post adding gas to a car fuels the tank to 100% percent. But rationally, it destroys the car engine and performance. Therefore, statistically are numbers without meaning. The meaning of the outcome in statistics should be add into proper contest and restrictions to have a proper analysis and hence, take decisions upon them. Trust me I ´m an economist (with a PhD and Master in econometrics and all that crap) and been working in statistics in many different developing countries for the past 15 years. I know you think you are smarter than everyone, and therefore you are always right and never miss a chance to show off your great skills and over the top intelligence but I got news for you: You are not. And I think that everyone in this blog will love to see a member with the great skills and participation as mustangsally have but with a little of humility and trying to help others, instead of showing herself/himself

I would do the reasoning why I think you are totally wrong and then answer your quotes on my words one at the time, so you can get a complete picture of what I wrote and why I wrote it.

1) The only reason why we share all these experiences, calculus, bet systems and DI techniques is because we hope or we have the illusion that we will be able to beat the casino at his own games. We are trying to find a system that works, spending thousands of hours and tons of money in order to develop a system that works and can help us achieve this goal.

2) If we ever find a betting working system or are in a situation were we have a slight advantage on the house (counting cards, shooting techniques?) we will hold to it and exploit as long as it´s legal.

3) To lay odds on a DP/DC bet the point should be properly stablished. Therefore, there is no opening shot when we take the decision of laying odds. This affects drastically all the returns calculus and probabilistic analysis at the time to choose into context whether to lay odds or not.

4) After the point is stablished, al the DP/DC edge have an advantage on the house, getting higher returns than the probability of occurrence. Seven is most likely to come out than any other number were the point is stablished and the payment is 1 to 1, hence, higher than the reverse of the probability of occurrence. Therefore, there is no HE or negative HE or Player Edge at this point, if you prefer to call it. This is the main reason why the house let you retrieve your DP/DC bets anytime. Try to pick up a Come or Pass bet once the point is stablished and you see how many uses the stickman can give to that stick...

5) At this point, You have a bet on the table with a Player Edge. One of the rarely few, if any you will be when facing a Casino. Which takes me back into 1), if you are ever in a situation were you can win free money, exploit it and hold to it as much as you want.

6) Laying odds is statistical neutral. If you have and odd of 6/5 and it pays you 5/6 (in the darkside for 6s & 8s, the oposite when you are betting on winner bets), in the long term nor you or the casino will win money on this kind of bet. Wether you are playing in the darkside or in the "good side" -This reminds me to Star Wars... We could use Force Side! hahahah-. But the overall impact in your bet strategy is completely different depending on the context. For instance, if you are playing on a winner strategy, laying your odds in a pass or come bet, reduces the house edge. The bigger the odds you play, the more the House's Edge shrinks (3x, 20x, 100x) becoming a more random game. If you have a large bankroll, in the long term, nor you nor the house will win money with very large odds on the table.

7) Now in the Darkside, it works completely the opposite way. As stated in 4) we have a Negative House Edge, or a Players Edge (A very large advantage, at least accounting to Sally) and it was the whole objective stated in 1). Laying odds (and accepting getting paid less money for your odd bet than the base bet!) will reduce the overall Player's Edge. Hence, favoring the house. You will lose more money, for a lesser payment, increasing the odds of the house to win money on you. Therefore, we were in the situation stated in 2) and instead of taking advantage of it, we are returning the edge to the house, hence, letting go our advantage.

8) You can also see an example of what I'm saying on how the house behaves on your betting pattern:
* You will never be allowed to increase the base of DP/DC bet.
* You can increase your P/C bases bet at anytime.
* You can pick up at anytime of the roll your DP/DC bet.
* You can not pick up your P/C bases before the point is resolved (winner or loser!)

9) By doing this (laying odds in the darkside), you are reducing your probability of winning to Casino and lowering the Edge you had over the house once you got to point. I would never recommend to anyone, once you got to the situation you were looking from the beginning ( points 1 and 2) to voluntarily let go this advantage, hence, reduce the return on your money, hence reduce your overall performance. From a rational standpoint of view, it makes no sense and the Casino know about this.

10) I will do the math as simple as possible intending that anyone can understand it.

1) point was established
2) you have 3 options:
Scenarion A
a) point is 6 or 8: You have a probability of winning of 6/5 and the payment is 1-1 (instead of 5-6, which would be with no house edge!)
b) point is 5 or 9: You have a probability of winning of 3/2 and the payment is still 1-1 (instead of 2-3, which would be with no house edge!)
c) point is 4 or 10: you have a probability of winning of 2/1 and the payment is still 1-1 (instead of 1-2, which would be with no house edge!)

If you add odds to your base don't pass bet, statistically the bet has no HE, but reduces the edge you have in that scenario. For instance if you add 10X odds to your dark side bet, the edge moves to the next scenario B:
a) for a point 6 or 8: you have in total an 11x bet and the payment will be 1-1 on the base and 5-6 on the odds, which reduces the edge you have... Overall payment would be 10 x 56-60 (which is less than 1-1, hence reducing your edge!)
b) point is 5 or 9: your total bet is 11x and the payment will be 1x 1-1 and 10x 2-3, overall payment will be 10 x 23-30, which is much less than 1-1 (almost the reverse of the 3/2 probability you have of winning, hence reducing your edge in the house)
c) point is 4 or 10: your total bet is 11x and the payment will be 1x 1-1 and 10x 1/2, overall payment will be 10 x 12-20, which is almost half of 1-1 (almost the reverse of the 2/1 probability you have of winning, hence reducing your edge in the house)

With numbers, the same scenario.
Scenario A: You only play on the bases. You have 11 unit on your base don´t pass bet in order to compare and the point is established.
a) point is 6 or 8: You have a probability of winning of 6/5 and 11x units in your DP/ DC bet with no odds. If you win (which is more likely for the 6/5 probability!) you win 11 units. If you lose, you lose 11 units...
b) point is 5 or 9: You have a probability of winning of 3/2 and 11x units in your DP/ DC bet with no odds. If you win (which is more likely for the 3/2 probability!) you win 11 units. If you lose, you lose 11 units...
c) point is 4 or 10: you have a probability of winning of 2/1 and 11x units in your DP/ DC bet with no odds. If you win (which is more likely for the 2/1 probability!) you win 11 units. If you lose, you lose 1 units...

In the scenario B with odds on your bet,
a) point is 6 or 8: You have a probability of winning of 6/5 and 1x unit in your DP/ DC bet and 10x units in odds. If you win (which is more likely for the 6/5 probability!) you win 9,33 units. If you lose, you lose 11 units...
b) point is 5 or 9: You have a probability of winning of 3/2 and 1x unit in your DP/ DC bet and 10x units in odds. If you win (which is more likely for the 3/2 probability!) you win 7,67 units. If you lose, you lose 11 units...
c) point is 4 or 10: you have a probability of winning of 2/1 and 1x units in your DP/ DC bet and 10x units in odds. If you win (which is more likely for the 2/1 probability!) you win 6 units. If you lose, you lose 11 units...

Now same money you risk, with less payment you get, even though statistically is a bet with no House Edge, hence, should be an attractive bet. But it makes no sense at all...

Good Luck with your betting

Sepu,

Welcome to the forum, and thanks for bringing your expertise. We encourage vigorous debate on the posts and issues brought up. I must caution you, however, that you must attack the argument and not the person writing or be suspended for personal insults. You are extremely close to that line, hence the warning. Please confine yourself to advancing your argument on its merits. Thanks!

Well, Thanks for the advice. I 'm not trying to insult or make any other person feel uncomfortable neither disrespect anyone. But Just trying to be responsive at the same level of communication I got in prior posts. I was extremely careful to try not to offend, in anytime any of the other bloggers. I was just trying to defend a point an also other bloggers that got their post constantly attacked in a very aggressive way from some of the bloggers. It won´t happen again. I think that this is a great space to interact and share experiences, but is very difficult to do so when someone is the only person here that has a valid opinion and everybody else would be systematically get attacked by thinking different. I guess that many of the bloggers may feel overwhelmed by other users which behave in a bullying attitude to other posts. I just wanted to showed that everybody can make mistakes and we are all sharing opinions here for the greater good. Mocking on others won´t make us better at rolling the dice or more successful players. It just will make others uncomfortable. That´s all.

Kind regards.

Quote: mustangsally

bet more so the casino pays you less on a win. sounds fair to me too of course a 1:1 payout on the flat bet is not fair
casinos love this type of betting! lots of comps too that can far exceed the expected loss of 1.4% on the total bet Oh, that should be a secret too

There is no way that laying odds on a don't pass or don't come bet increases the expected loss to more than 1.4%. As a matter of fact, just single odds alone lowers the expected loss, or house advantage, to 0.8%, according to all the math tables.

Quote: Sepu

Well, Thanks for the advice. I 'm not trying to insult or make any other person feel uncomfortable neither disrespect anyone. But Just trying to be responsive at the same level of communication I got in prior posts. I was extremely careful to try not to offend, in anytime any of the other bloggers. I was just trying to defend a point an also other bloggers that got their post constantly attacked in a very aggressive way from some of the bloggers. It won´t happen again. I think that this is a great space to interact and share experiences, but is very difficult to do so when someone is the only person here that has a valid opinion and everybody else would be systematically get attacked by thinking different. I guess that many of the bloggers may feel overwhelmed by other users which behave in a bullying attitude to other posts. I just wanted to showed that everybody can make mistakes and we are all sharing opinions here for the greater good. Mocking on others won´t make us better at rolling the dice or more successful players. It just will make others uncomfortable. That´s all.

Kind regards.

Thank you for the reasoned response. It was mostly the opening paragraph that was borderline. Since you are new, I wanted to ensure you knew that we do differentiate the one from the other, no matter how specious the opposing argument may be. FWIW, I think you won your argument on the merits, so you're not alone in advancing the validity of your opinion.

Quote: Sepu

Laying odds in a DP / DC bet will reduce your overall performance, even thought is statistically neutral (no HE). I would recommend increasing the size of your DP / DC bets instead of laying odds in the dark side.

I wouldn't recommend that.

When you make a DP bet and lay odds, those are two separate bets.

The DP which originated with the come out roll is subject to the 1.38% house edge.

The edge remains unchanged for that bet.

The second bet, which is the odds bet, has zero house edge.

If you bet $50 on the DP, your expected loss is $50 x 1.38%= 69 cents.

100% of your wager is subject to the house edge.

If you instead bet $10 on the DP and it goes behind the ten, you can lay 2X odds.

Your total bet remains at $10 + $40 =$50, but only 20% of your wager, or $10, is subject to the house edge.

Your expected loss is $50 x .46%= 23 cents. A big improvement.


These are results using identical real dice rolls:

The avg. wager for $10 DP at 2X odds is $18.

The average wager for a $10 DP at 5X odds is $36.

Starting Bankroll= $2,000

Total Rolls = 4,800

Results:

$10 DP 2X odds: End= $2,916
$18 Flat DP Zero odds:End= $2,414

$10 DP 5X odds: End=$3,995
$36 Flat DP Zero odds: End= $2,878

Quote: longtimelancer

On the Don't Pass taking full odds, the average bet is 5 units (or so I'm told).

only my opinions
all others have their opinion(s) too

if you are talking abouts a 345X odds table, then i still agree with you

$10 dpass bet
100% of the time the dpass = $10

point 4,10 max lay odds = $60 to win $30
5,9 samee $60 but it pays on a win $40
6,8 point same $60 wins $50

2/3 of the time we have a point established so we make the $60 lay odds bet
2/3 * $60 = 120/3 = $40

$40 + $10 = $50 average bet for Dpass on a 345x odds table

Quote: longtimelancer

Can someone compare betting DP laying full odds to DP with no odds but with 5 units? In other words, I want to understand the effect of laying odds controlling for the total amount of the bet, which is 5 units.

you do this part
the EV for a $50 dpass and NO odds = 5X that of a $10 dpass with $60 lay odds

what is this all about?
many will disagree

Quote: longtimelancer

What is the variance of both approaches? What is the edge?

i see no value in this
the edge is meaningless
EV is what the game of Craps is all about

Quote: longtimelancer

How likely am I to double my money with a bankroll of 10 units?

10 units?
say the unit = $10
you buy in for $100 and make $50 flat bet
ok

$10 dpass with $60 lay bets

not a fair compare in my opinion
maye the Wizard wants to compare them.

Quote: longtimelancer

Of 100 units?

$10 units = $1000 buy in
a real buy in
i like that and a better question
$10 with $60lay odds
vs
$50 dpass and no odds

I asked this in another post
see another post
who wins and who cares?

Quote: longtimelancer

And how long will it take me?

for you?
i do not know

I know the average for the average dpass player
problem i see (C) is all
dont players
do (DUE)
think
they
are
NOT
average

Hmmmm,
I as a top PRO Lay bettor am not average either
so the math does not apply to me either too or one

well,
how much you pay for that info?

maybe i kiss and tell
maybe not

Sally

Quote: beachbumbabs

Thank you for the reasoned response.

hehehe
Angels went OVER again!

4 games in a row!

I parlayed my wins from yesterday!

hahahaha
BIG CASH WIN!!!
======================================= >>>
"if you didn´t have a Smat_ss and Know-It-All approach"

Sally says "my approach aint Smat_ss, in my opinion"

BUTT
thanks so much on sharing your opinion
========================================

now B4 dinner

yes, i do have a fat ass, I agree
so?

who wants a piece of me (many do (DUE) btw)?

i posted a pic B4 of my fat ass right BBB
one can find it
Mully

Quote: Tanko

I wouldn't recommend that.

When you make a DP bet and lay odds, those are two separate bets.

but every craps math expert combines the 2 separate bets
into 1 bet to get an average bet
a lower combined house edge

all the while as the EV stays the same


WinCraps
does just that too
test it
make 1 dpass bet with odds and make it win
it shows you made 2 bets
but the house edge is 4 an average bet over 1 bet

"The avg. wager for $10 DP at 2X odds is $18."

that is what WinCraps shows (after dividing) but that is from 2 bets
and
not
1 combined bet

the avg bet = $30 (counting ties)
all craps experts agree and Steen would too (the WinCraps man)

have fun!
Sally says

added:
I also see in WinCraps (Steen!)

that when you auto lay the odds and it is set at 2X
a $10 dpass shows $30 to win $25

this is FULL DOUBLE ODDS and not 2x odds

craps experts know what i talks about

i notice lots of things
like

Angels OVER and LA Clips win on the road!
BIG CASH PAYOUT 4me

I don't why exactly.. But I think I am developing a teenage type crush on MustangSally ;-)

Quote: Sepu

NEVER LAY ODDS PLAYING ON THE DARKSIDE!!!

well, Sepu, the logic you lay out for your argument ... that's what you hear from the Dealers. In particular to argue that the amount that you 'were' going to put on the odds should instead be included in the line bet is truly and magnificently awful ... but very beneficial to the House. A Dealer claiming that might be angling for a promotion. He also might urge you to take "no action" on the 6 or 8 when that is your number to resolve darkside. That kind of screwing of the players gets noticed by the right people too. Alas, I still think most of the time the Dealers just don't know any better. They get these ideas from crooked pit bosses etc., but also from players like ... well, like Sepu, I hate to say.

Do you like to take "no action" on the 6 or 8?