dicesitter
Joined: Jan 17, 2013
• Posts: 1157
June 28th, 2015 at 6:22:01 PM permalink
MathExtremist

I don't have any problem with your last post. there is no question that if a person can
at times influence the dice a tad and bend the HA, that difference from random would be
very small. There is no question that you cant rule out luck, particularly on long rolls
which are luck

But on the other hand, there is no way you can say there is no influence
being asserted on the dice by anyone and that all variance is luck.

I am not a lifetime winner, never will be, I spent 40 years playing this game and only
7 working on it. I am not a large better, wont ever be, so I will die a loser at the table,
but that last 7 have been much better than the first 33, and I continue to see
some things happen that I did not for 33 years....

I am 66, if this tends continues I have no complaints over the work I did.

dicesetter
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
• Posts: 20077
June 28th, 2015 at 6:45:26 PM permalink
Quote: dicesitter

MathExtremist

I don't have any problem with your last post. there is no question that if a person can
at times influence the dice a tad and bend the HA, that difference from random would be
very small. There is no question that you cant rule out luck, particularly on long rolls
which are luck

But on the other hand, there is no way you can say there is no influence
being asserted on the dice by anyone and that all variance is luck.

I am not a lifetime winner, never will be, I spent 40 years playing this game and only
7 working on it. I am not a large better, wont ever be, so I will die a loser at the table,
but that last 7 have been much better than the first 33, and I continue to see
some things happen that I did not for 33 years....

I am 66, if this tends continues I have no complaints over the work I did.

dicesetter

At anytime in that 33 years did you ever have a lucky run or a horrible run? Did you keep the same records then as you have in the past 7 years?

You may be seeing what is just part of a lifetime of variance, and you are now averaging out.

If some random old grandmother can set the record for the longest roll. You could just be running slightly better than you should be. Somewhere someone has probably been running bad for 7 years.

If you can't achieve the highest level of DI in 7 years of practice, and achieve +EV results, then that's probably the 2nd best evidence that it's not possible to gain an advantage at craps. But most of us realized this long ago.

Just out of curiosity after year 3,,4 or 5 what kept you going?
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
MathExtremist
Joined: Aug 31, 2010
• Posts: 6526
June 28th, 2015 at 10:15:24 PM permalink
Quote: dicesitter

I don't have any problem with your last post. there is no question that if a person can
at times influence the dice a tad and bend the HA, that difference from random would be
very small. There is no question that you cant rule out luck

Not very small, indistinguishable. If you've been working on skill at throwing dice for seven years but your results are indistinguishable from what would occur randomly then you haven't developed enough skill to matter.

If you get to a statistically significant result, I'll be listening. Something where your results would have been less than 5% likely to have occurred by chance alone. In your case, that would be a roughly 0.9% gain on your total line bets, a total win of around \$3000, give or take. But you're not there. After seven years of playing, you've lost money and you're well within the range of what anyone else would expect just by blindly hurling the dice down the table. There is no reason to chalk that result up to skill other than a case of confirmation bias.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
dicesitter
Joined: Jan 17, 2013
• Posts: 1157
June 29th, 2015 at 7:02:56 AM permalink
Axelwolf

I have kept going for one simple reason...... in just the first year and a half after working on my shoot
I had 42 rolls over 40 a number over 50 and I cant count the ones over 30. That had never happened
before....

Now I am sure you will tell me this is all luck , but it was not and the folks playing with me would tell
you that as well.

But you cant just do what Ahigh did and stand there hour after hour and throw the dice off the back wall
and all around the table, that is not how you get influence.. You have to limit the bounce and the effect
of the back wall as much as possible.

But My hands don't work as well at my age now so there are times my toss is not always consistent and
I understand that... I am sure you wont.... but then I don't care what you will accept and what you
wont.... I keep going because when I throw one of my shots correctly I get results, when I am off I don't
period.. when you have a set designed for certain numbers to be seen more than others and you
throw it right...you get them... that is not luck

Friday I went to play for an hour..... one of my shots was awful, the dice rotation was just awful
and I had terrible results.... I switched to a different shot and repeated pretty well, I went back to the
first shot and was awful.... that is not luck because I am not judging the wins or losses I am looking
at the dice reaction. Saturday night I played and the shot I was having problems with Friday was
on so I used it and the dice reacted well.

\You and others assume once you get a shot that works all you have to do is go to the table
and it is perfect..... that is total BS.. the :"throw" is just like the delivery in bowling, the swing
in golf or hitting a baseball.....your not always the same, and when your off it shows...

You don't understand that, you think it means nothing and everything is just variance.

I feel a tad sorry for you... I understand and accept the limitations of dice control and what
I can and cant do, I accept their are many others far better than I am that's for sure and
I respect them for being able to do something better than I can....but your so entrenched
in your position that you allow for nothing else..

That's not for me

dicesetter
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
• Posts: 20077
June 29th, 2015 at 8:52:43 AM permalink
Quote: dicesitter

Axelwolf

I have kept going for one simple reason...... in just the first year and a half after working on my shoot
I had 42 rolls over 40 a number over 50 and I cant count the ones over 30. That had never happened
before....

Now I am sure you will tell me this is all luck , but it was not and the folks playing with me would tell
you that as well.

But you cant just do what Ahigh did and stand there hour after hour and throw the dice off the back wall
and all around the table, that is not how you get influence.. You have to limit the bounce and the effect
of the back wall as much as possible.

But My hands don't work as well at my age now so there are times my toss is not always consistent and
I understand that... I am sure you wont.... but then I don't care what you will accept and what you
wont.... I keep going because when I throw one of my shots correctly I get results, when I am off I don't
period.. when you have a set designed for certain numbers to be seen more than others and you
throw it right...you get them... that is not luck

Friday I went to play for an hour..... one of my shots was awful, the dice rotation was just awful
and I had terrible results.... I switched to a different shot and repeated pretty well, I went back to the
first shot and was awful.... that is not luck because I am not judging the wins or losses I am looking
at the dice reaction. Saturday night I played and the shot I was having problems with Friday was
on so I used it and the dice reacted well.

\You and others assume once you get a shot that works all you have to do is go to the table
and it is perfect..... that is total BS.. the :"throw" is just like the delivery in bowling, the swing
in golf or hitting a baseball.....your not always the same, and when your off it shows...

You don't understand that, you think it means nothing and everything is just variance.

I feel a tad sorry for you... I understand and accept the limitations of dice control and what
I can and cant do, I accept their are many others far better than I am that's for sure and
I respect them for being able to do something better than I can....but your so entrenched
in your position that you allow for nothing else..

That's not for me

dicesetter

You're eyesight must be amazing.

Bowling, darts, pool etc etc you can actually see skilled players repeat similar results constantly. Some shots in pool have to be extremely accurate. I'm not talking just getting it in the pocket. I'm talking about cutting a ball that needs to pass in between 2 balls that have a **** hairs leeway in between. then travel 4 feet and clear a pocket. Guys can do it one handed with a broom handle. Yet in years and years we have yet to find anyone that can show anything but random results in craps DI. We can't find anybody who is actually making money at it either, yet there's a significant amount to be had. You said people are far better than you. Millions should be disappearing from craps tables. Yet most casinos let you freely set and "influence" the dice and then comp you afterwards.

Remember how everyone believed guys could bend spoons and keys with their minds and do various other things?

Please explain why? Especially since there's

Can you show us one slow motion video of your best shot(or anyone's)that does something special after hitting the felt? Just one that doesn't become random?
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
dicesitter
Joined: Jan 17, 2013
• Posts: 1157
June 29th, 2015 at 9:19:17 AM permalink
Axel

You ever see a bowler have an off night, did you ever see an excellent dart player better one night
than the next....

Dicesetter
MathExtremist
Joined: Aug 31, 2010
• Posts: 6526
June 29th, 2015 at 9:53:52 AM permalink
You can visually tell when a bowler or dart player has a bad game vs a good game. When a DI has a bad game vs a good game, how can you tell the difference? Where's the video that shows how your dice don't bounce around the way everyone else's do?
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
dicesitter
Joined: Jan 17, 2013
• Posts: 1157
June 29th, 2015 at 10:49:01 AM permalink
I see so when when a dice setter has a bad day it is variance.... now I get it

dicesetter
thecesspit
Joined: Apr 19, 2010
• Posts: 5936
June 29th, 2015 at 11:15:27 AM permalink
Quote: dicesitter

I see so when when a dice setter has a bad day it is variance.... now I get it

dicesetter

Well, yes, unless there's an element you can clue in to us to say what would be a 'bad day'.

Here's a thought experiment (you could probably do it as well). Say you threw dice who had no markings you could see. Would you be able to say 'good throw' or 'bad throw' after each, without knowing the values that ended up on top of the dice?

Variance happens, and with dice, there's a lot of it, and you have to show the separation of random effects with influence. Not seen anyone convincingly do that yet (though one of you recorded dice series from AHigh showed there might have been something, but it was a small sample, though with a large skew from the normal).
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
Ahigh
Joined: May 19, 2010
• Posts: 5161
June 29th, 2015 at 11:31:59 AM permalink
Quote: dicesitter

I see so when when a dice setter has a bad day it is variance.... now I get it

I hope that this is not taken the wrong way, but I don't expect that anyone honestly believes that you had any epiphany, here.

Luck is more commonly interpreted as skill than a lack of luck is interpreted as a lack of skill.

If you are only ever confronted with the confounds of bad luck (and never good luck) it might be a sign that you are a victim of one who associates good luck with skill more often than one who associated bad luck with a lack of skill.

This is a critical feature of the human brain (the brain's desire to deny there is a problem with perception of control over its environment). When someone does not have control over their immediate surroundings as they would like to believe that they still do, it's not uncommon for our brains to lie to us to make us feel better.

You may be experiencing this. And if you were, you would be more than intimately familiar with so-called "bad luck" than the "good" variety thereof.

It is the "good luck" that you have to bring into thought and allow to manifest; hopefully you are crediting luck sufficiently enough and keeping your awesomeness out of the equation for explanation when things go your way. It's imperative to keep your senses aware of reality more than your own little bubble-universe where awesomeness is attributed to your abilities even a little bit too much in order to be honest with yourself.