Turned $25 into $500 playing donts and then gave it all back!

I feel really stupid about this. I was at the casino with somebody and I was just observing the tables and this one table in particular looked super cold so I decided to play donts on it. All I had was $25 in my wallet and I kid you not, this was like my dream table on the donts. All I had was $25 and I must have won 16 bets in a row. No 7's on the come out roll either. Anyways the table was eventually completely empty because everybody was out of money so I shot a few times from the donts and I was doing awesome shooting from the donts until I had this one roll where I made 6 or 7 passes and during the come out roll I rolled a ton of 7's! Keep in mind this was a $25 table. Normally I pass the dice or wait for a new shooter if somebody is hot but I was the only one left at the table so there was nobody to pass the dice.

Feel like an idiot giving all that profit from that amazing run of luck back! Usually on the donts winning 3 in a row is hard to do.

Quote: guitarmandp

I feel really stupid about this. I was at the casino with somebody and I was just observing the tables and this one table in particular looked super cold so I decided to play donts on it. All I had was $25 in my wallet and I kid you not, this was like my dream table on the donts. All I had was $25 and I must have won 16 bets in a row. No 7's on the come out roll either. Anyways the table was eventually completely empty because everybody was out of money so I shot a few times from the donts and I was doing awesome shooting from the donts until I had this one roll where I made 6 or 7 passes and during the come out roll I rolled a ton of 7's! Keep in mind this was a $25 table. Normally I pass the dice or wait for a new shooter if somebody is hot but I was the only one left at the table so there was nobody to pass the dice.

Feel like an idiot giving all that profit from that amazing run of luck back! Usually on the donts winning 3 in a row is hard to do.

Had you quit while you were at your high point would you have stopped playing craps forever? If not, it doesn't matter. Quitting while you are ahead is just a mind game people play with themselves. You can't predict hot, cold choppy tables, there's no such thing until after the fact. You could've won $500 more.

The only real benefit in "quitting while you are ahead" is you stop playing a -EV game.

Eventually you probably would've lost that $500 either way.

I once turned $500 into $0 in one hand of blackjack. And I wasn't back to even, I was down $500. A 1K swing. I Remember the event often.

Quote: AxelWolf

Had you quit while you were at your high point would you have stopped playing craps forever? If not, it doesn't matter. Quitting while you are ahead is just a mind game people play with themselves. You can't predict hot, cold choppy tables, there's no such thing until after the fact. You could've won $500 more.

The only real benefit in "quitting while you are ahead" is you stop playing a -EV game.

Eventually you probably would've lost that $500 either way.

Very good info. And not sugar coated.

Quote: AxelWolf

You can't predict hot, cold choppy tables, there's no such thing until after the fact.

But if you can't discern hot or cold while you're in the middle of a hot or cold table, then you don't really have much business betting.

Quote: SanchoPanza

But if you can't discern hot or cold while while you're in the middle of a hot or cold table, then you don't really have much business betting.

Just about everybody can recognize a hot table or a cold table, but things can change in an instant. I remember about 7 years ago playing blackjack at the Plaza. I was playing $10 - $80 a hand. Opening for about $20. DD, DA2,DAS, 65%Pen. Moving my money with the count. Had a horrible run playing heads-up. Lost $500 in five minutes. At that betting level it doesn't get much worse. I hung in there because I'm not superstitious. Then things changed just as fast in the other direction. I won back the $500 and then some. We never know when a streak is going to continue, stop or go in reverse. I will say this, if I'm playing craps and have a good win, chances are good that before I lose it all back I'll quit and leave with 25% of my win or so because I enjoy savoring a win.

(The DD game at the Plaza last time I checked was $25 min, NDAS. NTY [no thank you].)

guitarmandp you had a good run and then you had a bad run. So have we all.

By the way, there is nothing wrong with quitting when you are showing a profit and walking out of the casino. Sure, you'll go back and the next time you might lose it back or you might win more -- you can't predict that.

But walking out "with their money" is a good feeling. Try it sometime. It has nothing to do with the math of the game, but it's all about feeling good.

Quote: SanchoPanza

But if you can't discern hot or cold while you're in the middle of a hot or cold table, then you don't really have much business betting.

The only thing that determines a hot or cold table or session is personal loss or gain.

Let's say someone is playing BJ at a table alone (perfect basic strategy)half way through the shoe they are down significantly because the dealer just wont bust. So the "SMART" player discerns early on it's a "cold" table. They grab their chips stand up. A different player sits down because they like playing solo. Had the first player stayed they would've kept walking. The new player plays just like the first player would have with the same bet and strategy . The new guys wins 5 times what the first player lost.

At the time the first player "wised up" it seemed they were correctly discerning the situation. They were wrong? After the fact in retrospect yes. Perhaps not, maybe the 2nd player got crushed with some rare string of splits and double downs just as they though the table was hot,

The only thing someone can be sure of is what could've happen after the fact, if you don't believe in the butterfly effect.

Play long enough and it will most likely average out to a loss. It's amazing That -EV long run seems to creep up on everyone fairly fast.

Even +EV counting seems to bust out bankrolls way to often.

Quote: AxelWolf

Quote: SanchoPanza

But if you can't discern hot or cold while you're in the middle of a hot or cold table, then you don't really have much business betting.

The only thing that determines a hot or cold table or session is personal loss or gain(AFTER THE FACT).

Let's say someone is playing BJ at a table alone (perfect basic strategy)half way through the shoe they are down significantly because the dealer just wont bust. So the "SMART" player discerns early on it's a "cold" table. They grab their chips stand up. A different player sits down because they like playing solo. Had the first player stayed they would've kept walking. The new player plays just like the first player would have with the same bet and strategy . The new guys wins 5 times what the first player lost.

At the time the first player "wised up" it seemed they were correctly discerning the situation. They were wrong? After the fact in retrospect yes. Perhaps not, maybe the 2nd player got crushed with some rare string of splits and double downs just as they though the table was hot,

The only thing someone can be sure of is what could've happen after the fact, if you don't believe in the butterfly effect.

Play long enough and it will most likely average out to a loss. It's amazing That -EV long run seems to creep up on everyone fairly fast.

Even +EV counting seems to bust out bankrolls way to often.

Quote: AxelWolf

Quote: AxelWolf

Quote: SanchoPanza

But if you can't discern hot or cold while you're in the middle of a hot or cold table, then you don't really have much business betting.

The only thing that determines a hot or cold table or session is personal loss or gain(AFTER THE FACT).

Let's say someone is playing BJ at a table alone (perfect basic strategy)half way through the shoe they are down significantly because the dealer just wont bust. So the "SMART" player discerns early on it's a "cold" table. They grab their chips stand up. A different player sits down because they like playing solo. Had the first player stayed to play the 2nd player would've kept walking bye. The new player plays just like the first player would have, with the same bet and strategy . The new guys wins 5 times what the first player lost.

At the time the first player "wised up" it seemed they were correctly discerning the situation. They were wrong? After the fact in retrospect... yes.

Or perhaps not, maybe the 2nd player would've got crushed soon after with some rare string of splits and double downs, just as they though the table was hot,

The only thing someone can be sure of, is what could've happen after the fact(if you don't believe in the butterfly effect)

Play long enough and it will most likely average out (to a loss). It's amazing that -EV long run seems to creep up on everyone fairly fast.

Even +EV counting seems to bust out bankrolls way to often.

There's this guy that bets huge on the don'ts. He bets $1,000 flat bet and then lays $6,000 regardless of the point. He also puts a purple chip on the hardway as insurance and hops the 7's on the come out roll for like $198 to cover his flat bet. He showed up last night right before I left, so I watched him play. Anyways he won 8 times in a row before I left. A couple of times the point was 5 or 9 and they rolled every number once or twice *BUT* the marked point. He had to have been up $25,000 to $30,000. Usually when I play the don'ts I loose my first three or four bets and then I'm trying to get back to even the rest of the session. I'm lucky if I can win two in a row! If I get on a winning streak which is rare, I'm usually way down by the time that winning streak starts and it gets me close to even, not even and I ended up going home broke.

Quote: guitarmandp

There's this guy that bets huge on the don'ts. He bets $1,000 flat bet and then lays $6,000 regardless of the point. He also puts a purple chip on the hardway as insurance and hops the 7's on the come out roll for like $198 to cover his flat bet. He showed up last night right before I left, so I watched him play. Anyways he won 8 times in a row before I left. A couple of times the point was 5 or 9 and they rolled every number once or twice *BUT* the marked point. He had to have been up $25,000 to $30,000. Usually when I play the don'ts I loose my first three or four bets and then I'm trying to get back to even the rest of the session. I'm lucky if I can win two in a row! If I get on a winning streak which is rare, I'm usually way down by the time that winning streak starts and it gets me close to even, not even and I ended up going home broke.

So you knock 2 zeroes off the amounts and this becomes an affordable strategy. $10 don't. $60 odds. $5 hardway. $2 any 7 on comeout. Except I don't understand "on the hardway as insurance", sorry; which bet is this, exactly, and what type of insurance does it provide? I thought hardways were doubles/pairs. WoO says hardways are ON in LV, OFF in AC during comeout. So this only works if hardways are ON?

If the point is 10 hes got a $1,000 flat bet and $6,000 lay, so $7,000 worth of action and then he puts $500 on the hard 10 so if it comes hard he only loses $3,500 instead of $7,000

Problem is if it comes easy, he now loses $7,700 (hop the red bet and hard 10 in addition to don't bet and odds)

It's a bad strategy because if it comes easy you've lost even more money!

Quote: SanchoPanza

But if you can't discern hot or cold while you're in the middle of a hot or cold table, then you don't really have much business betting.

Hot or Cold only describes what has happened not what will happen on the next roll.

Quote: PBguy

Quote: SanchoPanza

But if you can't discern hot or cold while you're in the middle of a hot or cold table, then you don't really have much business betting.

Hot or Cold only describes what has happened not what will happen on the next roll.

A few days ago I asked some guy how he did on a certain table and he got pissed off and said "How the F do you think I did, the table is empty". An empty table can actually be a sign of a table that was hot. A lot of people will catch a monster roll or catch a good roll that gets them back to even, color up, and leave. It's quite common so I'm not sure an empty table is a sign of a hot or cold table but as a don't player I do look for a table that looks like there's not much going on.

A year or so ago as I was walking past a craps table, this dealer says to me "This is your kind of table, nobody has made a point on this table in over an hour". I bought in for 300 bucks thinking I was going to win some money. The next couple shooters proceded to destroy me on the don'ts making point after point until my money was gone.