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OzzyOsbourne
OzzyOsbourne
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April 4th, 2015 at 4:51:57 PM permalink
I was recently playing craps in Vegas at a 10 dollar table in Vegas with some friends. They are all gambling neophytes so I just told them to bet the pass line while I bet the pass and the come every roll. At one point I had all the numbers bet except for 9. A shooter hit the point, and on the new come out rolled a 7, everyone celebrated except for me since I had lost the 10 dollars I had on each number I had bet. Normally they return the odds to you and take the bet in that situation, but he just left it there. Later on in the session, he did it again!!! This time, I only had 3 numbers but I had now saved 80 dollars.

So my question is, does anyone know how big of an edge would you have in that situation if the dealer did not take your come bets when a new point is being established and a 7 is rolled. I imagine you would have a pretty sizable edge. This probably is not a common occurrence but I will definitely try to engineer this situation in the future at a busy table!
casino's money disappears the execs worry when the wizard is near He turns tears into joy Everyone's happy when the wizard walks by
mustangsally
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April 4th, 2015 at 5:35:14 PM permalink
Quote: OzzyOsbourne

I imagine you would have a pretty sizable edge.

how large do you think?
i say lower than 38%
Quote: OzzyOsbourne

This probably is not a common occurrence

you mean the dealer and player cheating the casino, all caught on video!
eye wonders why
Quote: OzzyOsbourne

but I will definitely try to engineer this situation in the future at a busy table!

try to cheat and get away how many times?
name the casino and i will contact them about a player and dealer cheating them
should bring me some good comps

what split did you make with the dealer?
i hope not 50/50?

i hate cheaters, all colors
they cheat me too
but the Craps God, she WILL balance the books in the end

cheaters go home
and watch UK!
Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
ThatDonGuy
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April 4th, 2015 at 7:46:13 PM permalink
Quote: OzzyOsbourne

So my question is, does anyone know how big of an edge would you have in that situation if the dealer did not take your come bets when a new point is being established and a 7 is rolled. I imagine you would have a pretty sizable edge. This probably is not a common occurrence but I will definitely try to engineer this situation in the future at a busy table!


That depends. Had your Come bet's point been made, would the dealer have paid off? If not, then the edge is zero.

If so, then the edge depends on what was the pass line point, and what was your come bet point.
Let's say the shooter throws a 4 on the come-out, then you make a come bet and the shooter rolls a 5.
Your "edge" is in the situation when:
(a) The shooter throws a 4 before a 5 or a 7 (a 5, and you win your come bet normally; a 7, and you lose it normally);
(b) The next roll is a 7, possibly followed by additional 7s - and this assumes the dealer thinks your come bets are still "off";
(c) Either the shooter throws a 5 before a 7, or the shooter makes a point before a 5 or 7, in which case you repeat (b) and (c).

Something tells me that the minute the dealer didn't pay off a winning come bet on a come-out, or didn't pay a winning DC bet on a 7 on the come-out, the bettor would have complained, somebody higher up in the casino food chain would have pointed out the error, and come bets would start losing again on 7s on the come-out.
waltomeal
waltomeal
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April 4th, 2015 at 8:30:01 PM permalink
By my calculations (which may very well be incorrect), the edge on a come bet that does not lose on a come out seven (once established) goes from -1.41 to +2.16.

This does not take into account odds, and assumes that all come out sevens (again, once the come bet is established) are missed by the dealer.
Old enough to repaint. Young enough to sell.
AcesAndEights
AcesAndEights
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April 4th, 2015 at 8:37:35 PM permalink
Quote: OzzyOsbourne

I was recently playing craps in Vegas at a 10 dollar table in Vegas with some friends. They are all gambling neophytes so I just told them to bet the pass line while I bet the pass and the come every roll. At one point I had all the numbers bet except for 9. A shooter hit the point, and on the new come out rolled a 7, everyone celebrated except for me since I had lost the 10 dollars I had on each number I had bet. Normally they return the odds to you and take the bet in that situation, but he just left it there. Later on in the session, he did it again!!! This time, I only had 3 numbers but I had now saved 80 dollars.

So my question is, does anyone know how big of an edge would you have in that situation if the dealer did not take your come bets when a new point is being established and a 7 is rolled. I imagine you would have a pretty sizable edge. This probably is not a common occurrence but I will definitely try to engineer this situation in the future at a busy table!


This has happened to me a couple of times. I don't know the edge though.
"So drink gamble eat f***, because one day you will be dust." -ontariodealer
gregorit
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April 5th, 2015 at 5:21:42 AM permalink
Describing this situation as 'cheating' is pretty ridiculous as is the reference to some sort of collusion based on the facts presented. After all the times I've seen the house 'no call' a bet AFTER A WINNING ROLL while previously scooping up the chips from a similarly placed LOSING bet, I have no problems with players benefiting from some penny-ante dealer lapses. As for the threat to alert the house, that is some serious weak sauce and would definitely lead to some heated customer on customer 'interaction' in Philly.
odiousgambit
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April 5th, 2015 at 5:27:25 AM permalink
Quote: mustangsally

i hate cheaters, all colors



What about a roulette player who pulled the favorable denomination-switch trick with her chips on three different occassions?

the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
odiousgambit
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April 5th, 2015 at 5:38:38 AM permalink
quoting another thread:

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/general/19484-discovery-channel-sep-10-wed-nite-3-new-ganbling-shows/6/#post395573

Quote: mustangsally

and of course you have played Roulette in most all the casinos in the world.

I wonder why I am asked to be on Roulette teams more than Bacc teams these days.
maybe because I am fat but pretty even one team did say I did not have enough money to offer to them
hey, their loss

sure an old scam that still works very well today all over the world and the casinos still seen clueless until they get hit more than one time

I only say it is easy because the 3 times I tried it
I was successful and the Roulette Dealer and Floor person was sorry to see me cash out so soon.

2 times I wore no makeup and jeans
that had to throw them for a loop loop

Sally
Queen of Roulette

the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
gregorit
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April 5th, 2015 at 5:59:58 AM permalink
Yes, a fat but pretty girl joining the roulette table without jeans would indeed throw folks for a loop loop.
Personally, I feel being a hypocritical windbag about the topic of cheating would make me a poop poop.
AxelWolf
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April 5th, 2015 at 6:14:27 AM permalink
JIFFY POP EXTRA BUTTER.

I'm not wearing any pants or makeup either.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
OzzyOsbourne
OzzyOsbourne
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April 6th, 2015 at 11:22:36 AM permalink
Sally what drugs are you on?
casino's money disappears the execs worry when the wizard is near He turns tears into joy Everyone's happy when the wizard walks by
nodiceman
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April 7th, 2015 at 10:29:49 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

What about a roulette player who pulled the favorable denomination-switch trick with her chips on three different occassions?



HOW DO I THUMBS UP THIS POST? WHERE DAFUQ IS THE THUMBS UP BUTTON?
djatc
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April 7th, 2015 at 11:34:35 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

What about a roulette player who pulled the favorable denomination-switch trick with her chips on three different occassions?



??? Please expand on this sentence.
"Man Babes" #AxelFabulous
ThatDonGuy
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April 7th, 2015 at 11:54:08 AM permalink
Quote: nodiceman

HOW DO I THUMBS UP THIS POST? WHERE DAFUQ IS THE THUMBS UP BUTTON?



The usual way on a forum is to quote the post and then add "+1" below it
nodiceman
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April 7th, 2015 at 12:53:18 PM permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuy

The usual way on a forum is to quote the post and then add "+1" below it



Lol - was more of a joke than anything. Consider my above post to be equivalent to +2, which is twice as emphatic as +1.
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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April 7th, 2015 at 1:57:24 PM permalink
the big question becomes, "what does an honorable person do when busted?"

I'd face the music myself
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
indignant99
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April 7th, 2015 at 3:07:56 PM permalink
Quote: mustangsally

the Craps God, she WILL balance the books in the end
cheaters go home and watch UK!
Sally


These sound like decrees issued by pink-clad feet. Caveat emptor.
Yeah, I made a mistake once. I thought I was wrong, when I actually wasn't. -Indignant
RS
RS
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April 7th, 2015 at 3:36:19 PM permalink
What's the right thing to do?


You bet as much as you f*****ng can on the come without reminding dealer they lose on a 7-winner. And you ignore Sally's poor advice.
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
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April 8th, 2015 at 8:27:13 AM permalink
When I run a simulation, I get:
Come bet when the point is 4 or 10 wins 52.038315%
Come bet when the point is 5 or 9 wins 53.236524%
Come bet when the point is 6 or 8 wins 53.586236%

The "math" comes out right for 4 and 6, but for 5, I get 52.841021%.


First, let P(N) determine the probability of winning a come bet whose point is N when the shooter is about to make a come-out roll.

If the shooter throws a 2, 3, 7, 11, or 12, then you are back in the same situation, so these rolls can be ignored.
If the shooter throws an N, the come bet wins.
Otherwise, if the shooter throws an X, which becomes the pass line point, then only three numbers matter:
(a) If N is rolled before 7 or X, the come bet wins
(b) If 7 is rolled before N or X, the come bet loses
(c) If X is rolled before 7 or X, you are back at the starting condition, so all of the rolls so far are ignored

If the come point is 4:
Come-outProbWinLoseIgnore
2,3,7,11,1212/36001
43/36100
103/363/126/123/12
5,98/363/136/134/13
6,810/363/146/145/14

The win probability = 3/36 + (3/36 x 3/12) + (8/36 x 3/13) + (10/36 x 3/14)
The loss probability = (3/36 x 6/12) + (8/36 x 6/13) + (10/36 x 6/14)
P(4) = W / (W + L) = 939 / 2089

Using similar calculation methods:
P(5) = 659 / 1238
P(6) = 19105 / 31951
Note that P(8) = P(6), P(9) = P(5), and P(10) = P(4)

Now, to determine the probability of a particular come bet winning

If the point is 4, and the next roll is:
7 or 11: the come bet wins
2, 3, or 12: the come bet loses
4: the come bet wins with probability P(4)
5: one of three things will happen:
(a) 4/13 of the time, 5 is rolled before 4 or 7, and the come bet wins
(b) 6/13 of the time, 7 is rolled before 4 or 5, and the come bet loses
(c) 3/13 of the time, 4 is rolled before 5 or 7, and the come bet has probability P(5)
6: one of three things will happen:
(a) 5/14 of the time, 6 is rolled before 4 or 7, and the come bet wins
(b) 6/14 of the time, 7 is rolled before 4 or 6, and the come bet loses
(c) 3/14 of the time, 4 is rolled before 6 or 7, and the come bet has probability P(6)
10: one of three things will happen:
(a) 3/12 of the time, 10 is rolled before 4 or 7, and the come bet wins
(b) 6/12 of the time, 7 is rolled before 4 or 10, and the come bet loses
(c) 3/12 of the time, 4 is rolled before 7 or 10, and the come bet has probability P(10) = P(4)

If the point is 4 when the come bet is made, the probability is:
[7,11] 8/36
[4] + 3/36 x P(4)
[10] + 3/36 x (3/12 + 3/12 x P(4))
[5,9] + 8/36 x (4/13 + 3/13 x P(5))
[6,8] + 10/36 x (5/14 + 3/14 x P(6))
= 0.52035065

If the point is 5 when the come bet is made, the probability is:
[7,11] 8/36
[4,10] + 6/36 x (3/13 + 4/13 x P(4))
[5] + 4/36 x P(5)
[9] + 4/36 x (4/14 + 4/14 x P(5))
[6,8] + 10/36 x (5/15 + 4/15 x P(6))
= 0.52841021

If the point is 6 when the come bet is made, the probability is:
[7,11] 8/36
[4,10] + 6/36 x (3/14 + 5/14 x P(4))
[5,9] + 8/36 x (4/15 + 5/15 x P(5))
[6] + 5/36 * P(6)
[8] + 5/36 x (5/16 + 5/16 x P(6))
= 0.53578545

OzzyOsbourne
OzzyOsbourne
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April 8th, 2015 at 8:32:08 AM permalink
Quote: RS

What's the right thing to do?


You bet as much as you f*****ng can on the come without reminding dealer they lose on a 7-winner. And you ignore Sally's poor advice.



Glad someone on here has some sense! :)

I should have added that it was at a Caesars property, then I think everyone would be on our side.
casino's money disappears the execs worry when the wizard is near He turns tears into joy Everyone's happy when the wizard walks by
AxelWolf
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April 8th, 2015 at 4:09:21 PM permalink
Quote: OzzyOsbourne

Sally what drugs are you on?


F.. ... EDIT suspension worthy. Perhaps a PM.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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April 8th, 2015 at 4:21:09 PM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

the big question becomes, "what does an honorable person do when busted?"

I'd face the music myself

Speaking of music https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PMfKPcd8Hsg
Run, Sally, run
Gotta put your mind together
Run, Sally, run, run away

Run (run) Sally, run
(Run, Sally, run)
No one ever cared about you
Run, Sally, run, run away today

Gotta find understanding
Gotta find love somewhere
Gotta find someone who
Will show they really care

Run (run) Sally, run
(Run, Sally, run)
Maybe you can find the answer
Maybe you can find the place for you

So run, Sally, run (run, Sally, run)
Run, Sally, run (run, Sally, run)
Run, Sally, run until you do

Gotta find understanding
Gotta find love somewhere
Gotta find someone who
Will show they really care

Run (run) Sally, run
(Run, Sally, run)
Maybe you can find the answer
Maybe you can find the place for you

So run, Sally, run (run, Sally, run)
Run, Sally, run (run, Sally, run)
Run, Sally, run until you do

Run (run) Sally, run
(Run, Sally, run)
Maybe you can find the answer
Maybe you can find the place for you

Run, Sally, run, Sally
Run, Sally, run, Sally
Run, Sally, run, Sally
Run, Sally, run, Sally..
Lyrics provided by http://www.lyricsbook.net/lyrics/438714.html
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
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