Great little craps situation / probability question
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April 4th, 2015 at 4:51:57 PM
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I was recently playing craps in Vegas at a 10 dollar table in Vegas with some friends. They are all gambling neophytes so I just told them to bet the pass line while I bet the pass and the come every roll. At one point I had all the numbers bet except for 9. A shooter hit the point, and on the new come out rolled a 7, everyone celebrated except for me since I had lost the 10 dollars I had on each number I had bet. Normally they return the odds to you and take the bet in that situation, but he just left it there. Later on in the session, he did it again!!! This time, I only had 3 numbers but I had now saved 80 dollars.
So my question is, does anyone know how big of an edge would you have in that situation if the dealer did not take your come bets when a new point is being established and a 7 is rolled. I imagine you would have a pretty sizable edge. This probably is not a common occurrence but I will definitely try to engineer this situation in the future at a busy table!
So my question is, does anyone know how big of an edge would you have in that situation if the dealer did not take your come bets when a new point is being established and a 7 is rolled. I imagine you would have a pretty sizable edge. This probably is not a common occurrence but I will definitely try to engineer this situation in the future at a busy table!
casino's money disappears
the execs worry when the wizard is near
He turns tears into joy
Everyone's happy when the wizard walks by
April 4th, 2015 at 5:35:14 PM
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how large do you think?Quote: OzzyOsbourneI imagine you would have a pretty sizable edge.
i say lower than 38%
you mean the dealer and player cheating the casino, all caught on video!Quote: OzzyOsbourneThis probably is not a common occurrence
eye wonders why
try to cheat and get away how many times?Quote: OzzyOsbournebut I will definitely try to engineer this situation in the future at a busy table!
name the casino and i will contact them about a player and dealer cheating them
should bring me some good comps
what split did you make with the dealer?
i hope not 50/50?
i hate cheaters, all colors
they cheat me too
but the Craps God, she WILL balance the books in the end
cheaters go home
and watch UK!
Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
April 4th, 2015 at 7:46:13 PM
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Quote: OzzyOsbourneSo my question is, does anyone know how big of an edge would you have in that situation if the dealer did not take your come bets when a new point is being established and a 7 is rolled. I imagine you would have a pretty sizable edge. This probably is not a common occurrence but I will definitely try to engineer this situation in the future at a busy table!
That depends. Had your Come bet's point been made, would the dealer have paid off? If not, then the edge is zero.
If so, then the edge depends on what was the pass line point, and what was your come bet point.
Let's say the shooter throws a 4 on the come-out, then you make a come bet and the shooter rolls a 5.
Your "edge" is in the situation when:
(a) The shooter throws a 4 before a 5 or a 7 (a 5, and you win your come bet normally; a 7, and you lose it normally);
(b) The next roll is a 7, possibly followed by additional 7s - and this assumes the dealer thinks your come bets are still "off";
(c) Either the shooter throws a 5 before a 7, or the shooter makes a point before a 5 or 7, in which case you repeat (b) and (c).
Something tells me that the minute the dealer didn't pay off a winning come bet on a come-out, or didn't pay a winning DC bet on a 7 on the come-out, the bettor would have complained, somebody higher up in the casino food chain would have pointed out the error, and come bets would start losing again on 7s on the come-out.
April 4th, 2015 at 8:30:01 PM
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By my calculations (which may very well be incorrect), the edge on a come bet that does not lose on a come out seven (once established) goes from -1.41 to +2.16.
This does not take into account odds, and assumes that all come out sevens (again, once the come bet is established) are missed by the dealer.
This does not take into account odds, and assumes that all come out sevens (again, once the come bet is established) are missed by the dealer.
Old enough to repaint. Young enough to sell.
April 4th, 2015 at 8:37:35 PM
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Quote: OzzyOsbourneI was recently playing craps in Vegas at a 10 dollar table in Vegas with some friends. They are all gambling neophytes so I just told them to bet the pass line while I bet the pass and the come every roll. At one point I had all the numbers bet except for 9. A shooter hit the point, and on the new come out rolled a 7, everyone celebrated except for me since I had lost the 10 dollars I had on each number I had bet. Normally they return the odds to you and take the bet in that situation, but he just left it there. Later on in the session, he did it again!!! This time, I only had 3 numbers but I had now saved 80 dollars.
So my question is, does anyone know how big of an edge would you have in that situation if the dealer did not take your come bets when a new point is being established and a 7 is rolled. I imagine you would have a pretty sizable edge. This probably is not a common occurrence but I will definitely try to engineer this situation in the future at a busy table!
This has happened to me a couple of times. I don't know the edge though.
"So drink gamble eat f***, because one day you will be dust." -ontariodealer
April 5th, 2015 at 5:21:42 AM
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Describing this situation as 'cheating' is pretty ridiculous as is the reference to some sort of collusion based on the facts presented. After all the times I've seen the house 'no call' a bet AFTER A WINNING ROLL while previously scooping up the chips from a similarly placed LOSING bet, I have no problems with players benefiting from some penny-ante dealer lapses. As for the threat to alert the house, that is some serious weak sauce and would definitely lead to some heated customer on customer 'interaction' in Philly.
April 5th, 2015 at 5:27:25 AM
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Quote: mustangsallyi hate cheaters, all colors
What about a roulette player who pulled the favorable denomination-switch trick with her chips on three different occassions?
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
April 5th, 2015 at 5:38:38 AM
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quoting another thread:
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/general/19484-discovery-channel-sep-10-wed-nite-3-new-ganbling-shows/6/#post395573
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/general/19484-discovery-channel-sep-10-wed-nite-3-new-ganbling-shows/6/#post395573
Quote: mustangsallyand of course you have played Roulette in most all the casinos in the world.
I wonder why I am asked to be on Roulette teams more than Bacc teams these days.
maybe because I am fat but pretty even one team did say I did not have enough money to offer to them
hey, their loss
sure an old scam that still works very well today all over the world and the casinos still seen clueless until they get hit more than one time
I only say it is easy because the 3 times I tried it
I was successful and the Roulette Dealer and Floor person was sorry to see me cash out so soon.
2 times I wore no makeup and jeans
that had to throw them for a loop loop
Sally
Queen of Roulette
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
April 5th, 2015 at 5:59:58 AM
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Yes, a fat but pretty girl joining the roulette table without jeans would indeed throw folks for a loop loop.
Personally, I feel being a hypocritical windbag about the topic of cheating would make me a poop poop.
Personally, I feel being a hypocritical windbag about the topic of cheating would make me a poop poop.
April 5th, 2015 at 6:14:27 AM
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JIFFY POP EXTRA BUTTER.
I'm not wearing any pants or makeup either.
I'm not wearing any pants or makeup either.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
April 6th, 2015 at 11:22:36 AM
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Sally what drugs are you on?
casino's money disappears
the execs worry when the wizard is near
He turns tears into joy
Everyone's happy when the wizard walks by
April 7th, 2015 at 10:29:49 AM
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Quote: odiousgambitWhat about a roulette player who pulled the favorable denomination-switch trick with her chips on three different occassions?
HOW DO I THUMBS UP THIS POST? WHERE DAFUQ IS THE THUMBS UP BUTTON?
April 7th, 2015 at 11:34:35 AM
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Quote: odiousgambitWhat about a roulette player who pulled the favorable denomination-switch trick with her chips on three different occassions?
??? Please expand on this sentence.
"Man Babes" #AxelFabulous
April 7th, 2015 at 11:54:08 AM
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Quote: nodicemanHOW DO I THUMBS UP THIS POST? WHERE DAFUQ IS THE THUMBS UP BUTTON?
The usual way on a forum is to quote the post and then add "+1" below it
April 7th, 2015 at 12:53:18 PM
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Quote: ThatDonGuyThe usual way on a forum is to quote the post and then add "+1" below it
Lol - was more of a joke than anything. Consider my above post to be equivalent to +2, which is twice as emphatic as +1.
April 7th, 2015 at 1:57:24 PM
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the big question becomes, "what does an honorable person do when busted?"
I'd face the music myself
I'd face the music myself
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
April 7th, 2015 at 3:07:56 PM
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Quote: mustangsallythe Craps God, she WILL balance the books in the end
cheaters go home and watch UK!
Sally
These sound like decrees issued by pink-clad feet. Caveat emptor.
Yeah, I made a mistake once. I thought I was wrong, when I actually wasn't. -Indignant
April 7th, 2015 at 3:36:19 PM
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What's the right thing to do?
You bet as much as you f*****ng can on the come without reminding dealer they lose on a 7-winner. And you ignore Sally's poor advice.
You bet as much as you f*****ng can on the come without reminding dealer they lose on a 7-winner. And you ignore Sally's poor advice.
April 8th, 2015 at 8:27:13 AM
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When I run a simulation, I get:
Come bet when the point is 4 or 10 wins 52.038315%
Come bet when the point is 5 or 9 wins 53.236524%
Come bet when the point is 6 or 8 wins 53.586236%
The "math" comes out right for 4 and 6, but for 5, I get 52.841021%.
First, let P(N) determine the probability of winning a come bet whose point is N when the shooter is about to make a come-out roll.
If the shooter throws a 2, 3, 7, 11, or 12, then you are back in the same situation, so these rolls can be ignored.
If the shooter throws an N, the come bet wins.
Otherwise, if the shooter throws an X, which becomes the pass line point, then only three numbers matter:
(a) If N is rolled before 7 or X, the come bet wins
(b) If 7 is rolled before N or X, the come bet loses
(c) If X is rolled before 7 or X, you are back at the starting condition, so all of the rolls so far are ignored
If the come point is 4:
The win probability = 3/36 + (3/36 x 3/12) + (8/36 x 3/13) + (10/36 x 3/14)
The loss probability = (3/36 x 6/12) + (8/36 x 6/13) + (10/36 x 6/14)
P(4) = W / (W + L) = 939 / 2089
Using similar calculation methods:
P(5) = 659 / 1238
P(6) = 19105 / 31951
Note that P(8) = P(6), P(9) = P(5), and P(10) = P(4)
Now, to determine the probability of a particular come bet winning
If the point is 4, and the next roll is:
7 or 11: the come bet wins
2, 3, or 12: the come bet loses
4: the come bet wins with probability P(4)
5: one of three things will happen:
(a) 4/13 of the time, 5 is rolled before 4 or 7, and the come bet wins
(b) 6/13 of the time, 7 is rolled before 4 or 5, and the come bet loses
(c) 3/13 of the time, 4 is rolled before 5 or 7, and the come bet has probability P(5)
6: one of three things will happen:
(a) 5/14 of the time, 6 is rolled before 4 or 7, and the come bet wins
(b) 6/14 of the time, 7 is rolled before 4 or 6, and the come bet loses
(c) 3/14 of the time, 4 is rolled before 6 or 7, and the come bet has probability P(6)
10: one of three things will happen:
(a) 3/12 of the time, 10 is rolled before 4 or 7, and the come bet wins
(b) 6/12 of the time, 7 is rolled before 4 or 10, and the come bet loses
(c) 3/12 of the time, 4 is rolled before 7 or 10, and the come bet has probability P(10) = P(4)
If the point is 4 when the come bet is made, the probability is:
[7,11] 8/36
[4] + 3/36 x P(4)
[10] + 3/36 x (3/12 + 3/12 x P(4))
[5,9] + 8/36 x (4/13 + 3/13 x P(5))
[6,8] + 10/36 x (5/14 + 3/14 x P(6))
= 0.52035065
If the point is 5 when the come bet is made, the probability is:
[7,11] 8/36
[4,10] + 6/36 x (3/13 + 4/13 x P(4))
[5] + 4/36 x P(5)
[9] + 4/36 x (4/14 + 4/14 x P(5))
[6,8] + 10/36 x (5/15 + 4/15 x P(6))
= 0.52841021
If the point is 6 when the come bet is made, the probability is:
[7,11] 8/36
[4,10] + 6/36 x (3/14 + 5/14 x P(4))
[5,9] + 8/36 x (4/15 + 5/15 x P(5))
[6] + 5/36 * P(6)
[8] + 5/36 x (5/16 + 5/16 x P(6))
= 0.53578545
Come bet when the point is 4 or 10 wins 52.038315%
Come bet when the point is 5 or 9 wins 53.236524%
Come bet when the point is 6 or 8 wins 53.586236%
The "math" comes out right for 4 and 6, but for 5, I get 52.841021%.
First, let P(N) determine the probability of winning a come bet whose point is N when the shooter is about to make a come-out roll.
If the shooter throws a 2, 3, 7, 11, or 12, then you are back in the same situation, so these rolls can be ignored.
If the shooter throws an N, the come bet wins.
Otherwise, if the shooter throws an X, which becomes the pass line point, then only three numbers matter:
(a) If N is rolled before 7 or X, the come bet wins
(b) If 7 is rolled before N or X, the come bet loses
(c) If X is rolled before 7 or X, you are back at the starting condition, so all of the rolls so far are ignored
If the come point is 4:
| Come-out | Prob | Win | Lose | Ignore |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2,3,7,11,12 | 12/36 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 4 | 3/36 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | 3/36 | 3/12 | 6/12 | 3/12 |
| 5,9 | 8/36 | 3/13 | 6/13 | 4/13 |
| 6,8 | 10/36 | 3/14 | 6/14 | 5/14 |
The win probability = 3/36 + (3/36 x 3/12) + (8/36 x 3/13) + (10/36 x 3/14)
The loss probability = (3/36 x 6/12) + (8/36 x 6/13) + (10/36 x 6/14)
P(4) = W / (W + L) = 939 / 2089
Using similar calculation methods:
P(5) = 659 / 1238
P(6) = 19105 / 31951
Note that P(8) = P(6), P(9) = P(5), and P(10) = P(4)
Now, to determine the probability of a particular come bet winning
If the point is 4, and the next roll is:
7 or 11: the come bet wins
2, 3, or 12: the come bet loses
4: the come bet wins with probability P(4)
5: one of three things will happen:
(a) 4/13 of the time, 5 is rolled before 4 or 7, and the come bet wins
(b) 6/13 of the time, 7 is rolled before 4 or 5, and the come bet loses
(c) 3/13 of the time, 4 is rolled before 5 or 7, and the come bet has probability P(5)
6: one of three things will happen:
(a) 5/14 of the time, 6 is rolled before 4 or 7, and the come bet wins
(b) 6/14 of the time, 7 is rolled before 4 or 6, and the come bet loses
(c) 3/14 of the time, 4 is rolled before 6 or 7, and the come bet has probability P(6)
10: one of three things will happen:
(a) 3/12 of the time, 10 is rolled before 4 or 7, and the come bet wins
(b) 6/12 of the time, 7 is rolled before 4 or 10, and the come bet loses
(c) 3/12 of the time, 4 is rolled before 7 or 10, and the come bet has probability P(10) = P(4)
If the point is 4 when the come bet is made, the probability is:
[7,11] 8/36
[4] + 3/36 x P(4)
[10] + 3/36 x (3/12 + 3/12 x P(4))
[5,9] + 8/36 x (4/13 + 3/13 x P(5))
[6,8] + 10/36 x (5/14 + 3/14 x P(6))
= 0.52035065
If the point is 5 when the come bet is made, the probability is:
[7,11] 8/36
[4,10] + 6/36 x (3/13 + 4/13 x P(4))
[5] + 4/36 x P(5)
[9] + 4/36 x (4/14 + 4/14 x P(5))
[6,8] + 10/36 x (5/15 + 4/15 x P(6))
= 0.52841021
If the point is 6 when the come bet is made, the probability is:
[7,11] 8/36
[4,10] + 6/36 x (3/14 + 5/14 x P(4))
[5,9] + 8/36 x (4/15 + 5/15 x P(5))
[6] + 5/36 * P(6)
[8] + 5/36 x (5/16 + 5/16 x P(6))
= 0.53578545
April 8th, 2015 at 8:32:08 AM
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Quote: RSWhat's the right thing to do?
You bet as much as you f*****ng can on the come without reminding dealer they lose on a 7-winner. And you ignore Sally's poor advice.
Glad someone on here has some sense! :)
I should have added that it was at a Caesars property, then I think everyone would be on our side.
casino's money disappears
the execs worry when the wizard is near
He turns tears into joy
Everyone's happy when the wizard walks by
April 8th, 2015 at 4:09:21 PM
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Quote: OzzyOsbourneSally what drugs are you on?
F.. ... EDIT suspension worthy. Perhaps a PM.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
April 8th, 2015 at 4:21:09 PM
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Speaking of music https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PMfKPcd8HsgQuote: odiousgambitthe big question becomes, "what does an honorable person do when busted?"
I'd face the music myself
Run, Sally, run
Gotta put your mind together
Run, Sally, run, run away
Run (run) Sally, run
(Run, Sally, run)
No one ever cared about you
Run, Sally, run, run away today
Gotta find understanding
Gotta find love somewhere
Gotta find someone who
Will show they really care
Run (run) Sally, run
(Run, Sally, run)
Maybe you can find the answer
Maybe you can find the place for you
So run, Sally, run (run, Sally, run)
Run, Sally, run (run, Sally, run)
Run, Sally, run until you do
Gotta find understanding
Gotta find love somewhere
Gotta find someone who
Will show they really care
Run (run) Sally, run
(Run, Sally, run)
Maybe you can find the answer
Maybe you can find the place for you
So run, Sally, run (run, Sally, run)
Run, Sally, run (run, Sally, run)
Run, Sally, run until you do
Run (run) Sally, run
(Run, Sally, run)
Maybe you can find the answer
Maybe you can find the place for you
Run, Sally, run, Sally
Run, Sally, run, Sally
Run, Sally, run, Sally
Run, Sally, run, Sally..
Lyrics provided by http://www.lyricsbook.net/lyrics/438714.html
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
