Pass line with come bets or single pass line bet?

Sorry if this has been asked before but for a newbie :)

I understand that the best bet in craps is to get as much money as possible into the free odds bet. So say that you were willing to bet 30 bucks per round on a 5 dollar table. Should you:

A) Bet 5 dollars on the pass line with 25 odds - or
B) Bet 5 dollars on the pass line with 5 odds and make one or two come bets of 5 dollars each with odds (adjusting odds accordingly whether you make 1 or 2 bets)

I understand that each point pays different and I know there's no magic number of come bets, but should you always make a come bet? Pretty boring just waiting for one number to roll to get paid if your just playing the Pass I guess.

Then of course - If its better to play for just the one number it asks the question (at least to me :)) if you should just bet the Dont Pass since you are then only waiting for 1 number to win and that number is the most likely to be rolled?

Hope I'm making sense. I know 30 bucks per round is low but 210 bucks is all I can afford to play in one session. At least I get 7 '7 outs' which hopefully gives me some sort of chance of staying at the table more than 5 minutes!

Quote: SDPilot

Sorry if this has been asked before but for a newbie :)

I understand that the best bet in craps is to get as much money as possible into the free odds bet. So say that you were willing to bet 30 bucks per round on a 5 dollar table. Should you:

A) Bet 5 dollars on the pass line with 25 odds - or
B) Bet 5 dollars on the pass line with 5 odds and make one or two come bets of 5 dollars each with odds (adjusting odds accordingly whether you make 1 or 2 bets)

I understand that each point pays different and I know there's no magic number of come bets, but should you always make a come bet? Pretty boring just waiting for one number to roll to get paid if your just playing the Pass I guess.

Then of course - If its better to play for just the one number it asks the question (at least to me :)) if you should just bet the Dont Pass since you are then only waiting for 1 number to win and that number is the most likely to be rolled?

Hope I'm making sense. I know 30 bucks per round is low but 210 bucks is all I can afford to play in one session. At least I get 7 '7 outs' which hopefully gives me some sort of chance of staying at the table more than 5 minutes!

Short answer: $5 on the line with $25 odds. One bet at a time because you don't have that much of a bankroll. This allows you to enjoy and absorb the game--get used to it.

Stay off the don't because you have to lay odds and your money can go quicker.

Welcome to the forum SDPilot.

nice 1st post OP

will gets back to you later
remember...
you will get many opinions on what IS better

most will be very very wrong, meaning there are better ways

it looks like all you care about is lasting more than 5 minutes

how about on average 1 hour then
a good start

Quote: Greasyjohn

Short answer: $5 on the line with $25 odds. One bet at a time because you don't have that much of a bankroll. This allows you to enjoy and absorb the game--get used to it.

i disagree 100%
and i say you are just wrong, in my opinion, because

OP says he wants to play more than 5 minutes in a session

$5 with $25 odds has a higher avg bet than $5 with $5 max 3 bets
over say 30 bets resolved (45 minutes to 1.5 hours of play)
i have sim data for this with a $200 bankroll but because the OP looks nice, without seeing his shoes, i re-do them with a $210 bankroll

Quote: Greasyjohn

Stay off the don't because you have to lay odds and your money can go quicker.

no no no
ah, this is a myth, in me opinion

i have sim data coming so wait
as UK must wait to win it all!

i say stay with the dpass
a much better bet than the pass for the OP lasting longer than a 5 minute session

but we will see really
after 10,000 others play a bunch of betting systems
maybe they be too close to call

Sally

added:
sim data for now: (my birthday week, more dinner and dancing and lots of sex!)

pass $5 with $5x odds
$210 Bankroll
30 bets to survive
Bankroll was busted . . = 12.901% of the time

dpass $5 with Lay 5x odds (bet enough to win $25)
$210 Bankroll
30 bets to survive
Bankroll was busted . . = 11.785% of the time

winner so far
dpass

now pass $5/$5 and max 2 come bets $5/$5
$210 Bankroll
30 pass line bets to survive
Bankroll was busted . . = 1.96% of the time

=================================
forgot the longggggggggg session

pass $5 with $5x odds
$210 Bankroll
120 bets to survive (maybe 4 hour session)
Bankroll was busted . . = 50.384% of the time

dpass $5 with Lay 5x odds (bet enough to win $25)
$210 Bankroll
120 bets to survive (maybe 4 hour session)
Bankroll was busted . . = 49.581% of the time

dpass still wins but so close


now pass $5/$5 and max 2 come bets $5/$5
$210 Bankroll
120 pass line bets to survive (maybe 4 hour session)
Bankroll was busted . . = 27.97% of the time

WOW!
pass with max 2 come bets single odds looks good (as expected by me)
i thinks dpass/dcome still wins out
must run!!

Quote: SDPilot

I understand that the best bet in craps is to get as much money as possible into the free odds bet. So say that you were willing to bet 30 bucks per round on a 5 dollar table. Should you:

A) Bet 5 dollars on the pass line with 25 odds - or
B) Bet 5 dollars on the pass line with 5 odds and make one or two come bets of 5 dollars each with odds (adjusting odds accordingly whether you make 1 or 2 bets)

Between the two, and given no other conditions (e.g. how long you want the money to last), I would choose (A), as the more money you bet on Pass or Come, the more you are subjecting to the house advantage.

However, your "best" bet would be 5 on Don't Pass with 30 odds. (This assumes you are allowed to bet 6x odds on the Don't on a 3/4/5x table, since a maximum odds bet would always pay 6x your Pass bet, so presumably you can bet 6x your Don't Pass bet regardless of the point.)

Quote: SDPilot

Hope I'm making sense. I know 30 bucks per round is low but 210 bucks is all I can afford to play in one session. At least I get 7 '7 outs' which hopefully gives me some sort of chance of staying at the table more than 5 minutes!

$30/round isn't low for some of us; the last time I played craps, I played $5 Pass and 3/4/5x Odds.

Congratulations to our Mustang Sally et. ux.

(The last time I celebrated a birthday, the week involved only two dinners, no dancing but several mornings of waking up in the gutter, gin-drunk.)

Now Issac Newton, Einstein and Vi Hart all say that there be this thing called a house edge and the more bets you make, the more times you be exposing your bankroll to that house edge. So mathematicians always say put your entire bankroll on the line and "go for broke". The trouble is: quite often you will get there.

For those who want a bit more bang for their buck and for the indignity of being groped by airport jerks, one massive bet just ain't gonna do it. And for Fleastiff, there sure ain't no "massive bet" and never will be.

But with craps the answer is simple: Just about everything in craps has been tried a zillion times and ain't nobody walked away from the table a rich man. Now Mustang Sally says she walks away from the Craps Table a rich broad but when she explains her system it seems to involve enough math for Fleastiff to start longing for more gin-drunk gutter time.

I didn't read the OP in great detail. But if I had a $200 bankroll and was to make $30 wagers I'd put $5 on the line with $25 odds. What's wrong with that?

Quote: SDPilot

Hope I'm making sense. I know 30 bucks per round is low but 210 bucks is all I can afford to play in one session. At least I get 7 '7 outs' which hopefully gives me some sort of chance of staying at the table more than 5 minutes!

I suggest you wager according to the number of the point. If it's the 6 or 8, do not take odds at first. Make a $5 come bet, so that if a 7 hits, it's a push. If the come travels to the 6 or 8, put 2x odds on both ($30 at risk). If the come travels to another number, put no odds on it. Place $6 on the 6 or 8 that is not the point ($26 at risk).

If the point is not the 6 or 8, make a come bet as above. Do not take odds at first. If the come travels to other than the 6 or 8, then place the 6 & 8 for $6 each ($22 at risk). The idea is to always have money on the 6 & 8, whether PL, Come, or Place. Take 2x odds only on the 6 and/or the 8. There will be rounds when the 6 & 8 don't show, but otherwise, they will show enough to keep you from losing big and fast. When they do hit, you want to have the best bet on them, whether a PL w/2x, a Come w/2x, or a $6 Place.

Whether or not you choose to replace a winning number by Come or Place is up to you. Since none of us know what the dice will do on the next roll, I suggest you replace your winning bets with another Come or Place. This is not a guarantee of fabulous winnings, only that it will keep you in the game longer than 5 min. Caveat: I have only used this method on Wiz's online game; I will use it next time I can get to a table.

Quote: SDPilot

but 210 bucks is all I can afford to play in one session.

I play with the same session bankroll as you, and am a real small-stakes bettor -- I've never bought in on a table with a minimum above $5. I also have a set gambling "stash" (or 401(g), to Scoblete readers). That segregated gambling fund requires that I play craps carefully, rather than optimally -- gambling, meet capital preservation! My largest win ever: $236. Largest loss: $172, and I still get angry at my loss of discipline.

So I play because it's fun. I enjoy the characters around the table, and the sweaty palms that modest, affordable gambling provides. But I also find pass line / max odds a bit light on action. I mix it up with a pass and a come or two (1x or 2x odds, though my local casino allows 10x), or a pass and placed 6 & 8. Once in a while I'll skip the pass line, start with a placed 6 & 8 followed by a come.

These bets strike my personal balance between action and affordability that allows me to play as often as I like.

Mathematically optimal? Nope. Manageable fun? You bet.

[edited for spelling]

Does not matter how you cut it your only chance of winning is when some one rolls a dice for 20 minutes or more. You should hang around for a while around green felt. I personally found out that Saturday's mornings are better then Friday's nights, players are more consistent, there is less stress involved. These tiny factors contribute to an overall results.

certainly you will get a lot of non-wizardly advice here, hope you know that

personally, with a small bankroll and a desire to get a low HE, I would just do 2X odds. This will get your HE below 1% and increase your variance above the passline-only bet, which really does have a too-low variance level by itself.

I would be incapable of betting only pass and odds. Mathematically that is your best option other than DP, but I think having PL and a couple of come bets might increase the entertainment value enough to be worthwhile. The difference between these systems is an extra $10 on the table for maybe 25 resolutions per hour. $250 against a 1.4% or whatever the PL is will mean an extra $3 an hour in house edge. Both systems you laid out are good enough, try them out and decide for yourself. If you can afford it, the max odds plus $ on the place might be good enough.

Edit: I may have underestimated the resolutions per hour, I don't see it being worth more than a $5 per hour difference between the strategies.

Quote: ThatDonGuy

$30/round isn't low for some of us; the last time I played craps, I played $5 Pass and 3/4/5x Odds.

of course, over 21 pass line decisions
on average
7 of them win or lose just $5
1/3 of the total decisions

your avg bet should be $18 8/9

OP takes 5X odds (for just the pass line bet and not the 3 point Molly)
that avg bet should be $21 2/3

neither of yous avg more than $29 per round (game)

but different story for the point round that happens on average 2/3 of the time

the last time I shot the dice I (eye) did this roll sequence
7,7,11,12,7,2,7, 4,7 (8 pass line decisions in how many rolls?)
I won big $$$$ because I made Lay bets on the come out roll and even made a Lay 4 bet
actual money won is relative
Mully

Quote: odiousgambit

certainly you will get a lot of non-wizardly advice here, hope you know that

personally, with a small bankroll and a desire to get a low HE, I would just do 2X odds. This will get your HE below 1% and increase your variance above the passline-only bet, which really does have a too-low variance level by itself.

*Sigh*

I know everyone will agree with you, Odious (hell, I even sorta agree)...but I think it needs to be said: if your bankroll is so limited that you cannot take max odds (assuming max odds is like 5x-10x, not 1000x or some ridiculous thing like that), then maybe you should reassess whether you should be playing in the first place. If you're willing to risk $10 (or $30 if you take 2x odds), shouldn't you be willing to risk $60 if you're going to get a lower house edge on that bet? I get that people are playing for fun - which is why I partially agree with Odious - but I just *personally* wouldn't make a $30 bet if I wouldn't be willing to take a $60 bet with a better chance of winning.

Quote: nodiceman

...if your bankroll is so limited that you cannot take max odds...then maybe you should reassess whether you should be playing in the first place.

Placard on craps table: "$5 minimum, Mandatory 10x Odds"

Pilot's got an entertainment budget, and wants advice on how to stretch it while playing craps. It's his money; I'm not sure "You can't afford to play" is a useful answer to his question.

Quote: Calder

Placard on craps table: "$5 minimum, Mandatory 10x Odds"

Pilot's got an entertainment budget, and wants advice on how to stretch it while playing craps. It's his money; I'm not sure "You can't afford to play" is a useful answer to his question.

Yay! Thread police! Please continue advising on which posts are useful and which are not. Your post added ABSOLUTELY NOTHING to the conversation and, in fact, detracted from a perfectly valid point: people should reassess whether they can really afford to lose $30 on a single hand if losing $60 on that same hand (but with better odds) is prohibitively costly.

I was going to explain how you're an idiot for placing 6&8 when you could just bet pass or dp with zero odds and have a lower house edge (and a lower bet), but I think I'll just close by asking you not to criticize posts that are intended to help others. If you thought I was trying to put down the OP or troll him or whatever, I hope you at least realize now that I was (and am) trying to help.

I know someone who needs a nap.

Thanks to everyone who took the time to reply!

Sorry for my late return been a little busy this week. Anyway it seems that the consensus is that neither way is any better than the other. That said it sounds that from a pure mathematical point of view, it may be better to play full odds on just one number since your not combining any other bets that have a HE. Although Sally's simulation did seem to suggest that a couple of come bets seemed to improve things. I have to be honest though I don't really understand all the figures that she put up :) As to which side to play seems to be a personal preference since they both have a low HE. I think it may be one of those you just decide based on the shooter and flow of the table - if there rolling a bunch of points then play the 'right way' versus the 'wrong way' when the table is all over the place.

NoDiceMan point on not playing. I follow your logic but I am a little confused as to the bit you say "but I just *personally* wouldn't make a $30 bet if I wouldn't be willing to take a $60 bet with a better chance of winning" I might be missing something, but, how does betting $60 on the same number improve your chances of winning? Don't the odds stay the same your just lowering the HE by betting more? Or are you suggesting that you would have a couple of bets out there at max odds to win on two numbers? Apologies if I'm reading your point incorrectly.

I think that ultimately it has to come down to a balance between the mathematical best bet, the entertainment factor and making your bank roll last as long as possible given that at the end of the day were playing a negative expectation game and we are going to lose in the longer term...Although I hope we win some in the short term! :)

SD Pilot -- You're right that the HE is lowered by betting more and that the (payout) odds stay the same. By "chance of winning," I meant HE...if you win your bet without odds, you don't make enough on that win to weather the losses from the times you lose your bet. Taking odds gets that house edge down so low that you are almost able to make the game fair (i.e., neither negative nor positive expectation). With those odds, you will make enough (not because you're betting more, but because the payout on those odds bets is fair) in order to pay for the losses. Check out these two simulations to see what I mean...

- $25 pass line bet, 3-4-5 odds, max odds taken every time
- $25 pass line bet, NO ODDS TAKEN

You'll want to see the results for the 100x simulation (scroll down on those pages to see it). With odds, the median ending cash after a 10-hr session is slightly below even, while the average is slightly above. In other words, extremely close to a fair game. Without odds, you have a lower median cash and a lower average cash...indicative of a slow bleed. Also note the max peak cashes for both systems -- odds gets you a peak cash of 17k from a 10k starting BR, whereas no odds gets you a peak cash of 11k from the same 10k BR...in other words, your variance is killed without taking odds.

All of this assumes that your bankroll is large enough relative to your bet + odds size (Odious's point). Play around with the simulator to see how much BR you'll need to survive for an hour or more with a bet + odds of $60. (It's probably somewhere around $600)...another simulation for you to see:BR = 600, play for an hour with an initial bet of $10, 3-4-5 odds, max odds taken. You actually lose in the first simulation (lol), but your avg and median over 100 simulations is positive, which is nice :)

Instead of not playing, what about decreasing the frequency of your play? So instead of play M-W-F for $210 a pop, play just Friday for $630, and get better odds by doing so. That's an idea, anyway :)

Quote: SDPilot

Although Sally's simulation did seem to suggest that a couple of come bets seemed to improve things. I have to be honest though I don't really understand all the figures that she put up :)

i simulated (but can calculate exact probs for a fee)
30 bets (maybe a good hour of play)
120 bets (4 hours of play)
just pass/odds
dpass/odds
and the 3 point molly
have not completed the dpass with 2 dc

this is for a comparison only

you said you wanted to play longer than 5 minutes so i grabbed a few time frames (as in bets made)


the answer is
just 5/5 pass and max 2
5/5 come bets is "better" than 5/5X (either pass or dpass)
for lasting (not busting your $210 bankroll) 1 to 4 hours
in my opinion
compared to 5/5X odds
either pass or dpass

but it should be
as your average bet is lower (you are not always betting $30 with the come bets)
bet less last longer

i complete my data after this weekend
because i always do (DUE)

go UK!

Sally

Quote: nodiceman

http://www.crapsforward.com/sim/34576/ - $25 pass line bet, 3-4-5 odds, max odds taken every time
http://www.crapsforward.com/sim/34577/ - $25 pass line bet, NO ODDS TAKEN

how about making this an even more fair to compare
the avg bet with 345x = $94 4/9
and the we know the other

how about a sim for $95 no odds?s and see how far off
just to compare

is not a 1000 roll / 10 hour session in one day
really too long?

how does this help the OP
i do not understand this

Quote: nodiceman

BR = 600, play for an hour with an initial bet of $10, 3-4-5 odds, max odds taken.

how about a 60 unit bankroll betting 1 unit with 345X odds
(the unit now can be $1 or anything)
what is the chance of complete ruin? (not being able to even make a 1 unit bet)

our OP wants to play with $210 and last longer than 5 minutes

how does this help him out again?
i still do not get this

Quote: nodiceman

You actually lose in the first simulation (lol), but your avg and median over 100 simulations is positive, which is nice :)

should not 1 in 67 (on average) (close) bust out?
or is this another sim waiting to be told?
sometimes i do not finish me sims too

how does this help the OP again starting with $210?

he really needs more money to play?
like the Frank Scoblete (America's #1 best-selling gaming author, casino games expert and speaker)
proper bankroll for craps says 10X your spread
what a joke!

(yes, i got it, i am slow most times)

have fun OP with your $210 bankroll
playing craps = fun
Mully

I think the best advice you got is the one MustangSally gave you at last: enjoy and have fun! I disagree sometimes with the probabilistic and math approach. Math is always right, but sometimes does´t make sense... For instance, would you would to the Roulette and accept a payment on the Even bets of half what you bet? There´s no sense at all in doing that, right? And there are lots of people around here advising you to use odds in your don´t pass / DC bets... For me it just does´t make sense, you are just generating more money to the casinos by doing this, even if it is with a math edge on your side. If you play in the dark side, my advise would be never use odds!!! It´s always paying you less than your base bets... Therefore, increase your base bets in the dark side and you would get better payments and outcome even though without any math sense. And again, have fun and enjoy your time at the craps table.

Quote: Sepu

If you play in the dark side, my advise would be never use odds!!! It´s always paying you less than your base bets...

Your advise. Highly in demand.

At least you warned us: the math approach out the window in favor of 'what makes sense'.



Don't tell me, let me guess: you also recommend taking "no action" on the dark side if the point is a 6 or 8?

No, when the point is stablished you always have and edge on the house... The odds in 6 & 8 is 6/5 and they pay you 1-1... That´s why they let you pick up your bet anytime in the Don't Pass / Don't come bets... But if you are in that situation and you add full odds to your bet (for instance 100x odds), then you are giving away that edge you have to the house!! I would never in my sane judgement would add any odds to DP/DC bets... I rather stay with my edge... If I´m in one of the very few situation I have and edge on the house, I won´t ruin it by accepting get less payment to may money by adding odd money in the darkside, even if it is statistically neutral. Do a simulation and then let me know!

Good Luck!

" Pass line with come bets or single pass line bet?"

I now prefer single large bet:
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/craps/21723-switching-back-to-passline-from-dont-pass-again/

Quote: 100xOdds

" Pass line with come bets or single pass line bet?"

I now prefer single large bet:
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/craps/21723-switching-back-to-passline-from-dont-pass-again/

But, isn't this kind of like putting an entire bankroll on one number? I prefer having 3 numbers in play, whether PL, Come, or Place. The method I described does this w/ money always on the 6 & 8, the numbers most likely after the 7, to hit. It's foolish to bet a significant part of your BR on an outside number. In the end it gets down to personal preference, which craps easily accommodates.

Quote: Sepu

There are lots of people around here advising you to use odds in your don´t pass / DC bets... For me it just does´t make sense, you are just generating more money to the casinos by doing this, even if it is with a math edge on your side.

How could something that supposedly has "a math edge on your side" be "generating more money to the casinos"?

Because at the opening shot, the odds are against you! That´s Why I said after the point is settled!

Quote: Sepu

Because at the opening shot, the odds are against you! That´s Why I said after the point is settled!

But you criticized laying odds, saying it added to the house's profits. So it rests that that assertion is patently unsupportable. And besides, the player has no edge in laying odds on DP or DC.

Quote: SanchoPanza

But you criticized laying odds, saying it added to the house's profits. So it rests that that assertion is patently unsupportable. And besides, the player has no edge in laying odds on DP or DC.

Sure, Because the payment is not 1-1 it´s less than that. It is the odds you have what reduces de Edge you have in a roll after the point is settled. But is´s not that complicated... Follow the next reasoning:

1) point was established
2) you have 3 options:
Scenarion A
a) point is 6 or 8: You have a probability of winning of 6/5 and the payment is 1-1 (instead of 5-6, which would be with no house edge!)
b) point is 5 or 9: You have a probability of winning of 3/2 and the payment is still 1-1 (instead of 2-3, which would be with no house edge!)
c) point is 4 or 10: you have a probability of winning of 2/1 and the payment is still 1-1 (instead of 1-2, which would be with no house edge!)

If you add odds to your base don't pass bet, statistically the bet has no HE, but reduces the edge you have in that scenario. For instance if you add 10X odds to your dark side bet, the edge moves to the next scenario B:
a) for a point 6 or 8: you have in total an 11x bet and the payment will be 1-1 on the base and 5-6 on the odds, which reduces the edge you have... Overall payment would be 10 x 56-60 (which is less than 1-1, hence reducing your edge!)
b) point is 5 or 9: your total bet is 11x and the payment will be 1x 1-1 and 10x 2-3, overall payment will be 10 x 23-30, which is much less than 1-1 (almost the reverse of the 3/2 probability you have of winning, hence reducing your edge in the house)
c) point is 4 or 10: your total bet is 11x and the payment will be 1x 1-1 and 10x 1/2, overall payment will be 10 x 12-20, which is almost half of 1-1 (almost the reverse of the 2/1 probability you have of winning, hence reducing your edge in the house)

With numbers, the same scenario.
Scenario A: You only play on the bases. You have 11 unit on your base don´t pass bet in order to compare and the point is established.
a) point is 6 or 8: You have a probability of winning of 6/5 and 11x units in your DP/ DC bet with no odds. If you win (which is more likely for the 6/5 probability!) you win 11 units. If you lose, you lose 11 units...
b) point is 5 or 9: You have a probability of winning of 3/2 and 11x units in your DP/ DC bet with no odds. If you win (which is more likely for the 3/2 probability!) you win 11 units. If you lose, you lose 11 units...
c) point is 4 or 10: you have a probability of winning of 2/1 and 11x units in your DP/ DC bet with no odds. If you win (which is more likely for the 2/1 probability!) you win 11 units. If you lose, you lose 1 units...

In the scenario B with odds on your bet,
a) point is 6 or 8: You have a probability of winning of 6/5 and 1x unit in your DP/ DC bet and 10x units in odds. If you win (which is more likely for the 6/5 probability!) you win 9,33 units. If you lose, you lose 11 units...
b) point is 5 or 9: You have a probability of winning of 3/2 and 1x unit in your DP/ DC bet and 10x units in odds. If you win (which is more likely for the 3/2 probability!) you win 7,67 units. If you lose, you lose 11 units...
c) point is 4 or 10: you have a probability of winning of 2/1 and 1x units in your DP/ DC bet and 10x units in odds. If you win (which is more likely for the 2/1 probability!) you win 6 units. If you lose, you lose 1 units...

Now same money you risk, with less payment you get, even though statistically is a bet with no House Edge, hence, should be an attractive bet. But from my point of view it makes no sense at all... I how this solves my "patently unsopportable assertion"...

I would recommend never laying odds playing in the dark side. It does´t worth the risk from my point of view. Which is completely the opposite in the Pass Line / Come bets (because the house do have an edge in these bets and laying odds reduces this edge!)

Hope this solves this matter SanchoPanza

Sepu, you must be a John Patrick disciple.

I think you have to look at your total bankroll and ask yourself. Do I want to put some of this money on a bet that has no house advantage or do I want to save it and make a future bet that has a house advantage?

But then what do I know? The famous don't bettor Nick the Greek supposedly said, "If I had it to do over again I would not have laid odds."

W6

Hi W6, I don´t know who John Patrick is... Therefore, I can´t help.

If I play the darkside (which I usually don´t because I´m a stupid and think I can shoot better than average!) unless someone else is rolling the dice, I would double my base bet (Don´t Comes or don´t pass) instead of laying odds on my bets. I think the effect on the Bankroll would be almost the same and my overall expected return will be higher. And also, I intend to decide which side I play talking into account the feeling I have on the table (if its cold or hot...) which also is totally nonsense (or not) as DI.

In this case, I see it the other way. The point is established and I think the next: Do I want to take advantage in the only scenario of the game where I really have an Edge over the house or do I want to intend to win more money, risk more money from my bankroll and reduce my edge! This is the way I see it.

Just my thinking, but again, I also recognized my limitations (stupidity should count as one of them!) hahahaha.

Quote: odiousgambit

certainly you will get a lot of non-wizardly advice here, hope you know that

Now don't get me wrong...(I don't want no wizardly wand "poofing" me into oblivion, I prefer Guinnessn to get me there).

Multiplicity of opinions is usually good. After all, the Wizard deals in "averages" and you've all heard the one about the guy with his head in the oven and his feet on a block of ice. His average temperature is quite comfortable and when the medics arrive they attempt to measure his dilation and the time between his contractions because their average medical assistance call is for a woman delivering a baby. Oh, the tyranny of statistics.

Quote: odiousgambit

...personally, with a small bankroll and a desire to get a low HE, I would just do 2X odds. This will get your HE below 1% and increase your variance above the passline-only bet, which really does have a too-low variance level by itself.

Thanks for this largely textual response. I am utterly fascinated by MustangSally's posts, but of course it takes me hours to understand them, but can never really grok them due to my arithmetical deficiencies.

By the way, how many posters here are convinced that MustangSally really is Vi Hart?

Quote: FleaStiff

Now don't get me wrong...(I don't want no wizardly wand "poofing" me into oblivion, I prefer Guinnessn to get me there).

Multiplicity of opinions is usually good. After all, the Wizard deals in "averages" and you've all heard the one about the guy with his head in the oven and his feet on a block of ice. His average temperature is quite comfortable and when the medics arrive they attempt to measure his dilation and the time between his contractions because their average medical assistance call is for a woman delivering a baby. Oh, the tyranny of statistics.


Thanks for this largely textual response. I am utterly fascinated by MustangSally's posts, but of course it takes me hours to understand them, but can never really grok them due to my arithmetical deficiencies.

By the way, how many posters here are convinced that MustangSally really is Vi Hart?

I'm 99% sure MS is not Vi Hart; I've watched Vi's videos, and the pix MS has posted of herself over the years (mostly of parts of her body, not a portrait), don't look like they could be parts of Vi Hart. Also, I asked her at one point and she said she's not Vi.