Frustrating don't pass week
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I feel like there's a button that gets pushed when I walk up to the table that makes the opposite of whatever I usually bet hot! My strategy is that I switch to the pass line after two points are made, to hopefully catch a winning streak on the pass. Only 1 shooter out of several tonight made their 3rd point!
I don't like to loose but it's one thing to get to play for several hours and chase the win, and go through ups and downs. The one day I won over the past 3 days, I was up $500 at one point (was trying to get to $1,000), but eventually gave up after several hours when the most I could get up was $200. Those other 2 days, I blew threw my bank roll in less than an hour after shooter after shooter was making 2 consecutive points.
Quote: guitarmandpI feel like there's a button that gets pushed when I walk up to the table that makes the opposite of whatever I usually bet hot!
we've all been there. It can be eerie
While it's true that the odds on making the next point are the exact same whether a point was just made or not it does seem it's the "hot roll" that kills us don't players. Again, eventually (however long that is) the math will hold true and more players will not make a point than will so if the ones that do only beat me once I tend to survive longer in cases like you listed above until the table finds a cold streak to level things out, at least a bit.
YES!Quote: guitarmandpI have been getting crushed on the don'ts this week.
i love it when craps players get crushed
thank you for sharing
better you than me or my friends
there is the problem i see (c)Quote: guitarmandpI typically bet $15 on the don't pass
major sucker bet because it can lose on a 7
then just lose 1 point to any shooterQuote: guitarmandpIt seems like every shooter makes at least 2 points <snip>
it is the skill of the shooter that determines if a point will be a winner (so says craps experts)
so it looks to me like you bet against trends and do not like the results
i place that under the
cry-baby heading (Alan Krigman does also, another Alan!)
just me opinion
i place that also under theQuote: guitarmandpI don't like to loose
cry-baby heading
just me opinion too two 2 1+1
just make your wins larger than your losses
it is really that simple to be a lifetime craps winner
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i love it when don't betters lose (and get crushed in their opinion)
they are making the wrong bets at the wrong time,
easy way to be a loser
please tell more
do you have your own daily blog that i can read?
i would pay BIG $$$$ to read it
maybe
Sally
Quote: mustangsallybetter you than me or my friends
there is the problem i see (c)
major sucker bet because it can lose on a 7
OK, what's your superior bet? '
And how do you determine when is the "correct" time for your "correct" betgs?
Quote: SanchoPanzaOK, what's your superior bet? '
And how do you determine when is the "correct" time for your "correct" betgs?
She hops the 7 when her monkey hello kitty doll tells her ;) Just my opinion.
thank you for askingQuote: SanchoPanzaOK, what's your superior bet? '
each time i play, it is a different bet
but most times i Lay the point but that depends on how the shooter answers my question to him about winning that point
i go with how i feel about it
but most times now, the odds bet only
as i do not make line bets
nice tryQuote: SanchoPanzaAnd how do you determine when is the "correct" time for your "correct" betgs?
i have my secret methods other than when to make Lay bet against a point, even me husband does not know how i win so often at craps
i just say i am lucky
but i know better
Mully
So I should lay the point... do you lay the point as often and as confidently when it is 6/8 as when it is 4/10?
I see guys that on 6 & 8 actually pick up their don't bets. I even saw one guy have a $300 don't pass bet and when an 8 rolled he picked it up. Idiotic! I understand not wanting to lay odds but I don't understand picking up a bet where you've got a 9% edge.
There's another guy that bets $100 on the don't come and if a 6 or 8 rolls he says "no action" and waits for a better number. It seems like every time he does that the next roll is either a 7 or 11
Quote: guitarmandpThere's another guy that bets $100 on the don't come and if a 6 or 8 rolls he says "no action" and waits for a better number.
Are you taking advantage of the situation?
I've seen a guy do no action on everything except the 4 and 10. Then he'd put out about half his DP/DC wager on the hard 4/10 as a hedge. Then as soon as a point was made (and he had money behind the 4 or 10) and it was now the come-out roll....he'd take his DC bets down, but keep his hedge bets on the hardways up.
I heard a dealer tell me that he had a guy who would do no action on any point number -- so essentially, he was only playing the DP/DC on the come-out roll, rooting for 2 or 3, and getting hurt on 7 or 11.
It's funny how many times I would do that and the 6/8 gets hit again and the person I bought it from says "see, that's why I don't take action on the 6" not realizing I just made a few dollars.
You don't want your $300 DC on that 6? Fine, I'll take a free shot at $50. I'm not proud.
Now, I realize that on a $50 DC on six and then placing it for $48 only gives me the chance to win $2 or $8 but it is zero risk and think about how many times that happens in a session of 8 hours or more. It's more than you think.
Quote: RSAre you taking advantage of the situation?
I heard a dealer tell me that he had a guy who would do no action on any point number -- so essentially, he was only playing the DP/DC on the come-out roll, rooting for 2 or 3, and getting hurt on 7 or 11.
Would you not be better off setting the money on fire?
Quote: AtGame7You don't want your $300 DC on that 6? Fine, I'll take a free shot at $50.
not sure what you mean by this?
Buy the $300 DC
Place the 6 for $300
On a 7, you are even
On a 6, you are paid $350
$50 profit potential with no way to lose
Quote: RonCDC bet $300 should travel to 6 but DC player wants to take it down
Buy the $300 DC
Place the 6 for $300
On a 7, you are even
On a 6, you are paid $350
$50 profit potential with no way to lose
Yep, you could even go $276 on the place bet and be guaranteed $22 or $24 without the possibility of losing $1.
People not traveling a don't bet are just not good at math. I even tried explaining it to a person who would play two $50 DC's each and every hand replacing one if it got picked off and not travel the 6/8. Their reply was big deal, I'm not here to win $2/$6, which I understand. Problem is they play 5+ hours a night and that might happen 50 times a night so why throw away the $100+?
Like I said earlier, if you don't want it I do.
Quote: AtGame7Like I said earlier, if you don't want it I do.
Somebody in an old thread said they liked to vulture it out like this with Darkside goofballs, but found that most of the time the player just didn't like the idea without saying why. He then would offer compensation, and the profit got very slim.
why should?Quote: FleaStiffMully?? Mustang Sally.
So I should lay the point...
FleaStiff is the new shooterQuote: FleaStiffdo you lay the point as often and as confidently when it is 6/8 as when it is 4/10?
his 1st roll = a 6. point is now 6. SIX IS
came easy
bet it back hard!
Sally says in a loud voice so all can hear, for those that want to hear
"Hey Flea! you going to roll that 6 real fast for a winner or are you just going to 7 out real fast?
i (eye) need to know what to bet NOW!"
now i wait to see the response
then i bet
in other words...
to me, it does NOT matter what the point # is if i bet against that #
it depends on the shooter
at that point in time (Einstein space-time)
i win this way
most will not, i think, because i have a talent for this
sure, most say i am just lucky
Sally
Sounds similar to what I frequently use when deciding when to bet, except I look at their appearance, age and dress. I, too, would ask them how they're going to roll the bones, except in some places that could get me one heck of a black eye or worse.Quote: mustangsally. . . It does NOT matter what the point # is if i bet against that #
it depends on the shooter at that point in time (Einstein space-time) i win this way most will not, i think, because i have a talent for this
sure, most say i am just lucky
Quote: RonCDC bet $300 should travel to 6 but DC player wants to take it down
Buy the $300 DC
Place the 6 for $300
On a 7, you are even
On a 6, you are paid $350
$50 profit potential with no way to lose
Craps arbitrage. Love it. Now there's a smart player.
Quote: guitarmandpI'm down $3,000 this week playing don'ts. I bet $10 on the don't pass and lay 10x odds. I'm thinking about switching from the don't pass to the pass. It seems like in order to really make any money on the don'ts you have to catch the perfect storm. You have to win 5 or 6 times in a row and you can't be on a table where shooters are making more than 1 point.
You could invite me to stay and play in your craps game. Based on my last year of sessions, that should pretty much guarantee you will have a good night on the Don't.
Still, I play pass/dp based on what my gut is telling me. If there's great mojo at the table, I'll go with the flow. If it's just a blah table, screw em...dp!!
Quote: guitarmandpI'm down $3,000 this week playing don'ts. I bet $10 on the don't pass and lay 10x odds. I'm thinking about switching from the don't pass to the pass. It seems like in order to really make any money on the don'ts you have to catch the perfect storm. You have to win 5 or 6 times in a row and you can't be on a table where shooters are making more than 1 point.
Sorry for your run of bad luck. I make my gambling living on the don't, and I can say with confidence that winning is not so much catching a perfect storm as grinding out profit. The key to success is to limit your losses. For example, a cardinal rule I use is to not lose more than one bet to any shooter. You do not want to be on the wrong side when the occasional hot roll comes along.
Darth
Quote: darthvaderSorry for your run of bad luck. I make my gambling living on the don't, and I can say with confidence that winning is not so much catching a perfect storm as grinding out profit. The key to success is to limit your losses. For example, a cardinal rule I use is to not lose more than one bet to any shooter. You do not want to be on the wrong side when the occasional hot roll comes along.
Darth
But isn't just as likely that 7 shooters in a row will make their first point than a single shooter making 7 points?
Of course, mathematically yes. In long and real experience, not so much.Quote: guitarmandpBut isn't just as likely that 7 shooters in a row will make their first point than a single shooter making 7 points?
If I understand the import of the question correctly, I'd most definitely say betting don't on quite a few tables has clearly brought out stronger efforts for hot rolls.Quote: AsswhoopermcdaddyHave you ever considered that we don't players have the opposite effect on people?
Quote: SanchoPanzaOf course, mathematically yes. In long and real experience, not so much.
So it doesn't really make any difference, the odds are still the same.
The only benefit I see is that maybe if you are getting creamed, you will last longer get credit for more time on the table
Quote: SanchoPanzaOf course, mathematically yes. In long and real experience, not so much.
My experience exactly. Doesn't make the math any worse, but certainly feels better.
I bought in for $1,500. Just my luck somebody makes a comment to me "I haven't seen a point in like an hour", I got crushed on the first point. It's really weird how certain shooters were always making points and others were always having short rolls.
Anyways I only got hit on the first point on a 4 point fire where the 5th point was marked, and the shooter after that hit 4 points including a 3 point fire. I was down like close to $500 but luckily I bet $5 on the fire each time as a hedge (yeah I know it's dumb). I got paid $125 on my fire and I laid the 8 (which was the 5th point) for $300, so I got $250 on that minus the Vig, so that got me back to even. Next shooter made 4 passes but I only bet on the first. Unfortunately for me I lost $75 on the come out roll from hell from this shooter and then he went on to make 4 passes, the first being a 4 so I had $200 laid plus a $25 flat bet so I was down $1,200. At that point they closed the table and I decided to leave.
The strange thing is that it was a $25 table, and I was betting $25 on the don'ts and laying $120 on a 6 or 8, $150 on 5 or 9, and $200 on 4 and 10; I was never up during the entire session. After my fire that I won I was back to even and then I lost $300 off the next shooter.
This is 3 consecutive losing sessions. What's also interesting is a few times this week I've bought in for very little money, ($120) as I was basically there to use my free bet coupon and I won at least $50 each of these times. I bet a little differently though when I only have $120 as I bet more on the flat bet and less on the odds. Each of those sessions where I won it took me a couple of hours of a choppy table to win. I had hang in there long enough that I caught a cold streak and left while I was a little bit ahead.
Quote: guitarmandpI'm down $3,000 this week playing don'ts. I bet $10 on the don't pass and lay 10x odds. I'm thinking about switching from the don't pass to the pass.
Years ago, I purchased a craps book and material for $20 at a garage sale.
The book came with a VCR tape, chips, three sets of casino dice, and a large craps layout to roll the dice on.
I knew absolutely nothing about the game, and I figured this was a good way to learn the fundamentals.
The author had rules for switching back and forth between sides.
He even had rules for switching tables.
The idea was to hopefully catch a run on whichever side it developed and avoid being crushed betting on the wrong side if a run did occur.
Today switching between the Do's and the Don'ts and mixing it up is part of my game.
I refuse to be the guy who busted out because he stuck with the Don'ts while everyone else cleaned up and cheered during one of those long Pass/Come runs.
Quote: TankoI refuse to be the guy who busted out because he stuck with the Don'ts while everyone else cleaned up and cheered during one of those long Pass/Come runs.
I like that. Makes sense, and you don't get permanently pegged as the "bad guy".
Who could care what players who don't understand the game do or gesture or vibrate?Quote: surrender88sI like that. Makes sense, and you don't get permanently pegged as the "bad guy".
Quote: darthvaderSorry for your run of bad luck. I make my gambling living on the don't, and I can say with confidence that winning is not so much catching a perfect storm as grinding out profit. The key to success is to limit your losses. For example, a cardinal rule I use is to not lose more than one bet to any shooter. You do not want to be on the wrong side when the occasional hot roll comes along.
Darth
darth I've done well using this strategy but got killed today on a table with only 1 shooter.
How do you implement this strategy of not losing more than one bet to any shooter if there is only 1 or 2 shooters at the table? ISnt it kind of pointless to not bet on the 2nd point because when he goes out he's going to roll next anyway
Quote: guitarmandpdarth I've done well using this strategy but got killed today on a table with only 1 shooter.
How do you implement this strategy of not losing more than one bet to any shooter if there is only 1 or 2 shooters at the table? ISnt it kind of pointless to not bet on the 2nd point because when he goes out he's going to roll next anyway
Very good question. As a rule, I will only play on tables with at least 4 players (other than me). Not only does it address this issue, but also has two other benefits:
* allows me to "hide" in the crowd better
* makes my don't money less than the do money. That is, why I don't declare that the rolls aren't random, I would rather be on the house's side than the players' side when it comes to results.
BOL on the dark side.
Darth
Should have a chance to do just this in a few days.
Quote: RonCDC bet $300 should travel to 6 but DC player wants to take it down
Buy the $300 DC
Place the 6 for $300
On a 7, you are even
On a 6, you are paid $350
$50 profit potential with no way to lose
So, 3000 buy on DC and place the 6 for 3000? Only way to lose is?
Believe me, the 6 doesn't come up often enough on the first roll of the DC. Why not lay it?Quote: mdsSo, 3000 buy on DC and place the 6 for 3000? Only way to lose is?
Quote: darthvaderVery good question. As a rule, I will only play on tables with at least 4 players (other than me). Not only does it address this issue, but also has two other benefits:
* allows me to "hide" in the crowd better
* makes my don't money less than the do money. That is, why I don't declare that the rolls aren't random, I would rather be on the house's side than the players' side when it comes to results.
BOL on the dark side.
Darth
It's amazing. When using this strategy, sometimes you have to play for hours to get the table to go cold. Most of the time half the shooters are making points and the other half aren't.
Interestingly after the woman (one of the guys was actually bankrolling one of the ladies because she was shooting so well) finally left the table the table got cold. I was down $500 when they left and I won like 5 in a row bringing me up $200! I had been there many hours so I reluctantly accepted my $200 profit and left. After I cashed out, I talked to a dealer at the black Jack table that I know for about 10 minutes. As I left walking past the craps table one of the players said they had several shooters in a row crap out without rolling a number! Just my luck!
Quote: guitarmandpWon $200 last night and my buy in was $1,800! Choppiest table ever and was there for many hours waiting for the table to get cold. It seemed like the pattern was the male shooters at one end of the table would always quickly 7 out, and then the female shooters on the other end were always making there point. At one point I lost $600 in two rolls as one shooters point was a 4 and made it in one roll. I waited for a new shooter and the next shooters point was 10, and she made it in one roll!
Interestingly after the woman (one of the guys was actually bankrolling one of the ladies because she was shooting so well) finally left the table the table got cold. I was down $500 when they left and I won like 5 in a row bringing me up $200! I had been there many hours so I reluctantly accepted my $200 profit and left. After I cashed out, I talked to a dealer at the black Jack table that I know for about 10 minutes. As I left walking past the craps table one of the players said they had several shooters in a row crap out without rolling a number! Just my luck!
Might be falling victim to confirmation bias, but I've seen, in general, much luckier rolling from the ladies, so much so that I generally don't bet the dark against them.
Darth
I won 1 bet in 10 shooters and couldn't even win on a 4 or 10. If you go on a huge losing streak do you switch tables?
I've never gotten manhandled like this! I lost $1,500 in less than an hour. Usually the table goes back and forth.
Nope. Take a break. The table always cools off eventually.Quote: guitarmandpIf you go on a huge losing streak do you switch tables?
Quote: SanchoPanzaNope. Take a break. The table always cools off eventually.
I agree
People underestimate the power of "the walk off"... An intermediate player with a bankroll can endure... But a GREAT player can see exactly what's going on and will high tail to his favorite break spot and relax... And tell yourself You WILL NOT MISS ANYTHING... The signal in your brain that tells the body "you're hungry" (Ghrelin) is very similar to your thought of switching tables.... But you should try to use (leptin) which is what tells you "you're full"..
Quote: TheWolf713I agree
People underestimate the power of "the walk off"... An intermediate player with a bankroll can endure... But a GREAT player can see exactly what's going on and will high tail to his favorite break spot and relax... And tell yourself You WILL NOT MISS ANYTHING... The signal in your brain that tells the body "you're hungry" (Ghrelin) is very similar to your thought of switching tables.... But you should try to use (leptin) which is what tells you "you're full"..
Lately I've been switching back and forth between pass and don't pass. I'm even for the week but if I had not switched when I switched, I would be down 5 grand this week.
