Albert Einstein on math

Quote: dwheatley

I'm pretty sure he was referring to a deep understanding of molecular theory and early quantum mechanics. After all, "He [God] does not throw the dice".

Quote: Sonny44

What I'm saying, here, is that as an individual player, the "math" does not apply to me, altho it does apply to the casinos,

Quote: Sonny44

IOW, for you and I, the math has no meaning; it's all in how the dice are going to do for you after you walk up and buy-in at the table.

Quote: Wizard

May I recommend John Patrick's forum. They whistle your same tune over there.

Quote: rxwine

The biggest failure of the "math guys" (non-gender specific guys) is they've as yet failed to come up with perfect layman's example where people can't keep going on about how math really doesn't matter.
.

Quote: DrawingDead

Paging Dr. Eastwood.



But that's a small sample size, involving a rather limited number of potential outcomes. And will only matter when it does.

Quote: rxwine

at Russian roulette

Quote: Kavouras

LOL There is no such forum anymore :-)

Quote: Wizard

You had me worried for a second there. It is right here. I need somewhere to send people who don't believe in math.

Quote: rxwine

The biggest failure of the "math guys" (non-gender specific guys) is they've as yet failed to come up with perfect layman's example where people can't keep going on about how math really doesn't matter.

Quote: EvenBob

They have all kinds of math for everything, except for where to place the next bet. For that they have nothing, not even a good guess. We all know it's possible to win in the short term, we've all done it. For how to sustain wins in the short term the mathletes are mute.

Quote: EvenBob

*yes, mathlete is a real word. Look it up.

Quote: AxelWolf

Quote: Wizard

You had me worried for a second there. It is right here. I need somewhere to send people who don't believe in math.

Do you need a list?

Quote: Sonny44

None of us plays to "infinity,"... What I'm saying, here, is that as an individual player, the "math" does not apply to me, altho it does apply to the casinos, who deal with the "law of large numbers," etc. I, as an individual player, participate in such a small sliver of the cosmic calculation (and, each sliver varies from individual to individual, depending on how they bet), that that calculation has no meaning for me...

Quote: Sonny44

<snip>What I'm saying, here, is that as an individual player, the "math" does not apply to me,

Quote: Romes

In fact we do play to "infinity," in a number of ways.
1) In perspective, infinity can simply be ones life. We can only play so many rounds in our lives, that number could very well be considered our own "infinity."
2) "Infinity," in the numerous ways it's described and used for gambling, is more/less the state at which you reach an expected value. Infinity is certainly attainable to an individual.

Quote: Sonny44

You can't define "infinity," as used in math discussions, this way. Even my lifetime/"infinity" is but a tiny dot in that cosmic sequence that the Wiki article re: expected value refers to. Your calculations are what I'm talking about: All we are doing is shrinking the universe of numbers we deal with, to our limited frame of reference.

I'm not saying ignore the math. All I'm saying is, (and I think Albert does, too) the math approaches reality, but is not reality. The reality is when you walk up to a table and begin putting your money down. Where in that cosmic sequence are the dice at buy-in? In this session? On the next roll, for that matter? Craps math is like a road map, to me: It gives an idea of where the road goes, but cannot detail every twist, turn, and grade. Those I experience in making the trip.

Quote: mustangsally

this is super to know
thank you for sharing <snip>

Quote: Sonny44

Thanks for the putdown, Sally.

Quote: Sonny44

BTW, why are 9 decimal places necessary when you math people calculate?
Maybe you think more numbers mean more? What's with that?

Quote: Sonny44

"So far as the theories of mathematics are about reality, they are not certain; so far as they are certain, they are not about reality." This is why I take math as it applies to craps with a grain of salt. There's also this quote on expected value from Wikipedia, "Less roughly, the law of large numbers guarantees that the arithmetic mean of the values almost surely converges to the expected value as the number of repetitions goes to infinity."

None of us plays to "infinity," altho the math gurus on this board run sims of 10, 100 million, etc. Even those are short of "infinity." What I'm saying, here, is that as an individual player, the "math" does not apply to me, altho it does apply to the casinos, who deal with the "law of large numbers," etc. I, as an individual player, participate in such a small sliver of the cosmic calculation (and, each sliver varies from individual to individual, depending on how they bet), that that calculation has no meaning for me.

Yes, it's helpful to know what you are up against (the math), but in any one session, sessions, a lifetime of sessions, you are still a speck in the calculation of the law of large numbers, negative expected value, etc. IOW, for you and I, the math has no meaning; it's all in how the dice are going to do for you after you walk up and buy-in at the table.

Yes, know the pyramid, the odds, the payouts, your bankroll, risk level, money management, etc. But, any math beyond that is, well, beyond me. Yes, regale in all the numbers you want, but in the end, it gets back to what happens at the table, the "reality" Albert refers to.

Quote: Wizard

May I recommend John Patrick's forum. They whistle your same tune over there.

Quote: mustangsally

if you feel that way, sure
you are welcome

Quote: mustangsally

it is a copy and paste thing from a calculator

Quote: RS

You don't need infinity to show the EV of a game. You need to define some sort of "a lot of hands played but not infinity", like the long run. Like, N0 is equal to 1 standard deviation (or 2 or 3 standard deviations).

Quote: RS

Look at it like this: You don't need to flip a coin an infinite amount of times to figure out you'll get 50% heads and 50% tails. Rather, you can flip the coin 100 times and realize the results are close to what we'd expect (mathematically).

Quote: RS

You don't need to martingale BLACK on roulette ($5 min to $10,240 max) an infinite amount of times to realize it's a losing proposition. You might only need 5,000 such wagers to get a decent idea of what you'd expect to win or lose (well, lose) when placing such bets.

Quote: RS

So no, you don't have to play an infinite number of hands or bets to realize your disadvantage.

Quote: Mosca

Solution: practice guessing numbers until you get really good at it. Learn to guess them different ways they appear; learn to guess them whether they are on dice, or on cards, or even if they are tossed fingers. Once you are really good at guessing numbers, the rest is easy. I leave completion of that proof as an excercise for the reader.

Quote: RS

Look at it like this: You don't need to flip a coin an infinite amount of times to figure out you'll get 50% heads and 50% tails.

Rather, you can flip the coin 100 times and realize the results are close to what we'd expect (mathematically).

       group         middle     freq  freq/100
----------------------------------------------
24.50 <= x < 25.50    25.00        1     0.00%
25.50 <= x < 26.50    26.00        1     0.00%
26.50 <= x < 27.50    27.00        0   
27.50 <= x < 28.50    28.00        2     0.00%
28.50 <= x < 29.50    29.00        8     0.00%
29.50 <= x < 30.50    30.00       17     0.00%
30.50 <= x < 31.50    31.00       46     0.00%
31.50 <= x < 32.50    32.00      128     0.01%
32.50 <= x < 33.50    33.00      231     0.02%
33.50 <= x < 34.50    34.00      430     0.04%
34.50 <= x < 35.50    35.00      878     0.09%
35.50 <= x < 36.50    36.00     1538     0.15%
36.50 <= x < 37.50    37.00     2653     0.27%
37.50 <= x < 38.50    38.00     4435     0.44%
38.50 <= x < 39.50    39.00     7137     0.71%
39.50 <= x < 40.50    40.00    10793     1.08%
40.50 <= x < 41.50    41.00    15964     1.60%
41.50 <= x < 42.50    42.00    22223     2.22%
42.50 <= x < 43.50    43.00    29988     3.00%
43.50 <= x < 44.50    44.00    38733     3.87%
44.50 <= x < 45.50    45.00    48029     4.80%
45.50 <= x < 46.50    46.00    57852     5.79%
46.50 <= x < 47.50    47.00    66747     6.67%
47.50 <= x < 48.50    48.00    73299     7.33%
48.50 <= x < 49.50    49.00    77780     7.78%
49.50 <= x < 50.50    50.00    79126     7.91%
50.50 <= x < 51.50    51.00    78047     7.80%
51.50 <= x < 52.50    52.00    73731     7.37%
52.50 <= x < 53.50    53.00    66616     6.66%
53.50 <= x < 54.50    54.00    58113     5.81%
54.50 <= x < 55.50    55.00    48936     4.89%
55.50 <= x < 56.50    56.00    39304     3.93%
56.50 <= x < 57.50    57.00    30105     3.01%
57.50 <= x < 58.50    58.00    22580     2.26%
58.50 <= x < 59.50    59.00    15958     1.60%
59.50 <= x < 60.50    60.00    10951     1.10%
60.50 <= x < 61.50    61.00     7026     0.70%
61.50 <= x < 62.50    62.00     4493     0.45%
62.50 <= x < 63.50    63.00     2719     0.27%
63.50 <= x < 64.50    64.00     1567     0.16%
64.50 <= x < 65.50    65.00      898     0.09%
65.50 <= x < 66.50    66.00      468     0.05%
66.50 <= x < 67.50    67.00      235     0.02%
67.50 <= x < 68.50    68.00      113     0.01%
68.50 <= x < 69.50    69.00       49     0.00%
69.50 <= x < 70.50    70.00       32     0.00%
70.50 <= x < 71.50    71.00       14     0.00%
71.50 <= x < 72.50    72.00        3     0.00%
72.50 <= x < 73.50    73.00        3     0.00%

       group         middle      freq  freq/100
-----------------------------------------------
23.50 <= x < 24.50    24.00         1     0.00%
24.50 <= x < 25.50    25.00         3     0.00%
25.50 <= x < 26.50    26.00         6     0.00%
26.50 <= x < 27.50    27.00        21     0.00%
27.50 <= x < 28.50    28.00        41     0.00%
28.50 <= x < 29.50    29.00        97     0.00%
29.50 <= x < 30.50    30.00       248     0.00%
30.50 <= x < 31.50    31.00       545     0.01%
31.50 <= x < 32.50    32.00      1120     0.01%
32.50 <= x < 33.50    33.00      2365     0.02%
33.50 <= x < 34.50    34.00      4584     0.05%
34.50 <= x < 35.50    35.00      8658     0.09%
35.50 <= x < 36.50    36.00     15318     0.15%
36.50 <= x < 37.50    37.00     26731     0.27%
37.50 <= x < 38.50    38.00     44724     0.45%
38.50 <= x < 39.50    39.00     69943     0.70%
39.50 <= x < 40.50    40.00    108283     1.08%
40.50 <= x < 41.50    41.00    158138     1.58%
41.50 <= x < 42.50    42.00    222530     2.23%
42.50 <= x < 43.50    43.00    299383     2.99%
43.50 <= x < 44.50    44.00    387968     3.88%
44.50 <= x < 45.50    45.00    483457     4.83%
45.50 <= x < 46.50    46.00    578108     5.78%
46.50 <= x < 47.50    47.00    663902     6.64%
47.50 <= x < 48.50    48.00    734468     7.34%
48.50 <= x < 49.50    49.00    781145     7.81%
49.50 <= x < 50.50    50.00    795522     7.96%
50.50 <= x < 51.50    51.00    781116     7.81%
51.50 <= x < 52.50    52.00    734469     7.34%
52.50 <= x < 53.50    53.00    667897     6.68%
53.50 <= x < 54.50    54.00    580458     5.80%
54.50 <= x < 55.50    55.00    485633     4.86%
55.50 <= x < 56.50    56.00    390950     3.91%
56.50 <= x < 57.50    57.00    302592     3.03%
57.50 <= x < 58.50    58.00    223549     2.24%
58.50 <= x < 59.50    59.00    159779     1.60%
59.50 <= x < 60.50    60.00    108990     1.09%
60.50 <= x < 61.50    61.00     71485     0.71%
61.50 <= x < 62.50    62.00     45261     0.45%
62.50 <= x < 63.50    63.00     27043     0.27%
63.50 <= x < 64.50    64.00     15854     0.16%
64.50 <= x < 65.50    65.00      8665     0.09%
65.50 <= x < 66.50    66.00      4624     0.05%
66.50 <= x < 67.50    67.00      2264     0.02%
67.50 <= x < 68.50    68.00      1149     0.01%
68.50 <= x < 69.50    69.00       535     0.01%
69.50 <= x < 70.50    70.00       216     0.00%
70.50 <= x < 71.50    71.00        94     0.00%
71.50 <= x < 72.50    72.00        45     0.00%
72.50 <= x < 73.50    73.00        13     0.00%
73.50 <= x < 74.50    74.00         6     0.00%
74.50 <= x < 75.50    75.00         3     0.00%
75.50 <= x < 76.50    76.00         0   
76.50 <= x < 77.50    77.00         0   
77.50 <= x < 78.50    78.00         1     0.00%

Quote: Sonny44

This will vary (variation) from one individual to another, of course.

Quote: Sonny44

Yes, but on my particular flips, all that is irrelevant.

Quote: Sonny44

I will not argue this. I suppose the ball is equivalent to the dice. Still, w/in that 5k, a particular session could (could, mind you) result in a win.

Quote: Sonny44

I realize that, RS. It gets back to what several have said re: variance from the math. "Variance from the math" is what makes gamblers, well, gamblers. This gets back to what I've said re: the applicability of the math to the game. Craps math is NOT INapplicable. It's something to keep in mind, but "(hehe) this could be my lucky day/session/night/whatever." I think Albert would not disagree.

Quote: RS

Of course, any session could end in a win or a loss.

Quote: RS

The math does not say, "You will lose 5.26% of your bet every single (roulette) spin".

Quote: RS

It says "Sometimes you'll win and sometimes you'll lose.

Quote: RS

But on average, you should lose 5.26% of the money you wager."

Quote: RS

You might be ahead at times or behind at times on that 5.26% figure, but, the more you play, the closer you'll get to the -5.26% figure.

Quote: RS

The last part, "this could be my lucky day/session/whatever", I agree -- that's true.

Quote: RS

Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose.
But overall, you lose [assuming you're making bets at a disadvantage].

Quote: Wizard

May I recommend John Patrick's forum. They whistle your same tune over there.

Quote: Wizard

I need somewhere to send people who don't believe in math.

Quote: Kerkebet

More a matter of the people who think they believe in math

Quote: EvenBob

Math is not a religion, there is nothing
to believe in.

Quote: EvenBob

It simply is, like water or
air. Ignore it at your own risk.

Quote: AxelWolf

It's usually obvious why people bring up topics like this it's usually system bettors who fully understand the real math yet they want so badly to believe or justify playing.

Quote: AxelWolf

Start talking about quantum theory.

Quote: AxelWolf

Why is it that if we really don't understand everything about math does that automatically mean you can beat the game or gain an advantage?

Quote: AxelWolf

Maybe everything we don't know dictates all systems must fail.

Quote: Kerkebet

I think you have that backward. Many, physicists and the religious alike, believe that it's the "all" which "just is". .

Quote: Wizard

May I recommend John Patrick's forum. They whistle your same tune over there.

Quote: teliot

Paraphrasing, GTFOH.

Quote: mustangsally

Sonny44 is a genius just like Einstein

Quote: mustangsally

the Wizard of Odds is handsome when he talks, even with his hands
right girls!

Quote: Wizard

The more ridiculous a notion is, the more tenaciously it tends to be held.

Quote: Sonny44

This is all I proposed in quoting Albert, because I get the impression from reading craps boards that unlike what he says, "craps math is the reality." No, it is not.
Otherwise, no one would play craps.

Quote: Sonny44

I've read several posts on other boards where long-time craps players are ahead.

Quote: Sonny44

This is my point:
Not everyone is condemned to perdition if they play craps.

Quote: Sonny44

Albert is right.
On any day/night/trip you could go broke, or clean house.

Quote: EvenBob

You can play silly semantic games with anything.

Quote: teliot

GTFOH.