What % of casino craps win comes from the worst bets?
I mean, if you think about it, if someone's retarded enough to play the equivalent of $100 on the horn bet every roll, not only is the house edge much higher, but there's a decision every roll vs a decision every 3 or 4 rolls (on avg) for a pass line bet).
Keeping a $100 horn bet up every roll is about the equivalent of keeping around $2500 - $3000 / roll up on the pass line!
Very interesting post. I wonder if anyone has data on the subject (I'm too lazy to research it).
Quote: RSI honestly don't know, purely conjecture here. But I'd guess about 25-40% of the "income" a table makes comes from the prop box alone. If you want to take into consideration 4/5/9/10/field as well as the prop box, I'd say that number might be in the 80%'s, maybe even 90%.
Very interesting post. I wonder if anyone has data on the subject (I'm too lazy to research it).
Seems like you'd have to run thousands of hours of videotape and manually identify the denoms (very tough from the overhead angle), then do that at dozens of casinos, to get any meaningful data. I don't think people play anywhere close to the same, or for anything like the amounts, on electronic versions you could data-mine easily. But I'm too new to the game for any of that to be more than an opinion, or to hazard a guess at the hold percentage.
As you said, an interesting question.
Quote: sc15Keeping a $100 horn bet up every roll is about the equivalent of keeping around $2500 - $3000 / roll up on the pass line!
Anything with an exotic name or impressive effect is liable to be made as a result of excitement derived from prior wins on the more sensible bets. Fatigue, alcohol, "the casino's money" all combine to create "flings" or a "go for broke" attitude. A horn bet has been described as a way to make four bad bets simultaneously. And it impresses the heck out of newbies to hear things like "Horn High on the Gobbledegook" or "Snake Eyes on the Hop".
Remember, short term the casino doesn't much care what happens. They pay off cheaters to keep the game going because even the cheaters get excited and bet it all back again.
Even the plodders who do minimum line bets all night long and never press anything are profitable to the casino. It just takes the casino longer for the PassLine Six and Eight types be cleaned out.
pass line bet.
The fire bet, the ATS bet, parley of the hard ways and craps numbers.
You cant make any real money from the pass line bets unless you start so
high that you risk your bankroll on every outing.
The fire bet pays $1250 for a $5 bet... now on a good roll of 40-50 you can
make some money, but on each roll of the dice you have big money at risk to make big
money, yet only $5 to make $1250 or on the parley of say the hard 4 a $5 hard 4 bet
hit and parleyed and hit produces a large win for only a $5 bet.
I understand the odds, they are not good, but then neither are the odds good for
having a 40 or 59 roll.
IN craps you need to make money when the results are not following normal trends
dicesetter
Quote: odiousgambitone thing for sure, they wouldnt even offer the game if everybody played just the pass line - not the same game anyway, they'd have to make the minimums much higher and who would play?
That's right. Without suckers playing the yo, c/e and its ilk no casino would have a full sized table with a $5-$10 minimum.
Quote: dicesitterThere is no question the real money is made on the bets which are not the typical
pass line bet.
The fire bet, the ATS bet, parley of the hard ways and craps numbers.
You cant make any real money from the pass line bets unless you start so
high that you risk your bankroll on every outing.
The fire bet pays $1250 for a $5 bet... now on a good roll of 40-50 you can
make some money, but on each roll of the dice you have big money at risk to make big
money, yet only $5 to make $1250 or on the parley of say the hard 4 a $5 hard 4 bet
hit and parleyed and hit produces a large win for only a $5 bet.
I understand the odds, they are not good, but then neither are the odds good for
having a 40 or 59 roll.
IN craps you need to make money when the results are not following normal trends
dicesetter
You mean the HOUSE makes the real money on those bets.
Players don't win at craps.
As was noted, while the HE is certainly greater on the center bets, the total action is probably less, therefore the amount retained by the casino is probably lower than you would think.
Let's assume a $10 table, with 8 right side players. We have $80 in PL bets, and perhaps another $240 in odds. Let's also assume 1/2 of the players are making $24 in 6/8 Place bets. So we have about $420 in bets at risk at something less than 1.5% HE.
Since the center bets are >10% HE, I think that says that we would need $42 in center action, to come up with the same expected house take. And this $42 would need to happen in the 8 rolls that the average shooter throws.
In the end, I bet the low % bets that everyone is playing, loses as much to the house, as the high HE center bets, due to the much higher total amount of bets being made.
Quote: RaleighCrapsYou know you have asked a great question when goatcabin doesn't have an answer. ;-)
Garsh!
Thanks.
Quote: RaleighCrapsYou know you have asked a great question when goatcabin doesn't have an answer. ;-)
As was noted, while the HE is certainly greater on the center bets, the total action is probably less, therefore the amount retained by the casino is probably lower than you would think.
Let's assume a $10 table, with 8 right side players. We have $80 in PL bets, and perhaps another $240 in odds. Let's also assume 1/2 of the players are making $24 in 6/8 Place bets. So we have about $420 in bets at risk at something less than 1.5% HE.
Since the center bets are >10% HE, I think that says that we would need $42 in center action, to come up with the same expected house take. And this $42 would need to happen in the 8 rolls that the average shooter throws.
In the end, I bet the low % bets that everyone is playing, loses as much to the house, as the high HE center bets, due to the much higher total amount of bets being made.
The $240 in odds don't have a house edge.
Are you saying 4 players are playing $12 6 and $12 8? Or $24 each? At a $10 table, I'd say they're probably playing $12 each.
(8*$10*0.0141) + ($24*4*0.0151) :. EV = $2.57 [for the house]
Hard 4 & 10 is 11%, Hard 6 & 8 is 9%, so average 10%. On the hardways alone, there'd need to be $25.7 just to be the same EV as the pass line bets. With 8 players at a $10 table, I'd say there's at least $30-40 on the hardways.
I'm talking averages here, not "always":
With 8 players (on a $10 table), I'd say there's at least $10-20 on hop bets on the come out roll (C, E, CE, horn, world, typically). Not to mention, when a bet hits, oftentimes people will press their bets, even some will parlay. At least one player will be betting $5 on all the hard ways once the point is established. And at least two players will be playing $1-2 on each of the hardways. 75% of the players will come back up on the hardway once it loses. 25% will let it fall and won't come back up on it. One player will be throwing out between $1-$5 on the YO [or other hop bet] every 2 or 3 rolls, at least. And there'd be at least $20 in the field every single roll. Then you got all those extra side bets, like fire, all-tall-small, or whatever else a casino may offer. Oh yeah, and a player or two who join the game after the point is established may make a PUT bet on the pass line -- 16% to 33% HE.
I think the prop box makes way more than half of the income for the table, I'd guess about 75%.
In a 20-minute round (while on stick), I probably hand in $100-200 in red chips and $60-80 in white [$1] chips to the box because there's so much action in the prop box. On busy nights with heavy prop action, it's probably more like $400 in red and $120 in $1's.
My 2 cents.
I love it. That's exactly the reason many guys/gals play craps, its an ego thing. I absolutely cringe when I hear the seasoned crapsters start talking craps lingo *Finger gage*Quote: FleaStiffA horn bet has been described as a way to make four bad bets simultaneously. And it impresses the heck out of newbies to hear things like "Horn High on the Gobbledegook" or "Snake Eyes on the Hop".
.
Quote: RaleighCraps
As was noted, while the HE is certainly greater on the center bets, the total action is probably less, therefore the amount retained by the casino is probably lower than you would think.
Let's assume a $10 table, with 8 right side players. We have $80 in PL bets, and perhaps another $240 in odds. Let's also assume 1/2 of the players are making $24 in 6/8 Place bets. So we have about $420 in bets at risk at something less than 1.5% HE.
Since the center bets are >10% HE, I think that says that we would need $42 in center action, to come up with the same expected house take. And this $42 would need to happen in the 8 rolls that the average shooter throws.
In the end, I bet the low % bets that everyone is playing, loses as much to the house, as the high HE center bets, due to the much higher total amount of bets being made.
The casinos want you to bet on those low house edge bets, that's why they came up with the so-called free odds!
One way of really looking at it would be to watch what happens every time that seven-out happens.
While there may not even be on prop bet on the table,.. all of those players on the table will most likely have a pass-line or don't pass bet on the table.
All of the books say that the best bet on a craps table is the pass-line bet, but what happens to all of those best bets every time the seven comes up? While there is without a doubt plenty of stupid players that will bet the prop bets when they are not hitting them. The casinos love those players, but at the same time they hate the stupid players that don't have a brain if you listen to all of the math guys that will tell you how bad of bets the prop bets are no matter what. Last night I had a guy that was standing next to me making money on the crap numbers, when he was shooting.
I would have called him a so-called DI, only because he was setting the 3V set and trying to do the same thing every time. Now if you ever read anything on that dice set you would say that there is no way he should have been hitting the crap numbers. Without me saying anything to him he turned and said that when he is shooting he hits a lot of crap numbers. So I waited to see what would happen and I never put out that first prop bet on him.
They say that they only way he could have hit those numbers was if he had both dice off axis or was doubling pitching. And if that was the case he should have sevened out too. This guy was making money on the craps numbers every time he shot.
While he held the dice he had many winning bets on the prop bets, but he only had one opportunity to win or lose on the pass line bet once he got by the come-out roll. There are a lot of high house edge edge bets that everybody calls sucker bets, but if you have your chips on those bets when someone is hitting them, who is the sucker?
The next time I see him shooting and he is hitting those sucker bet, you will have to include me as one of those sucker prop betting guys. No, even though he was making money I still didn't bet the prop bets. But the next time I see him and he is still doing the same thing that will be a different story.
I have shown some player how what we all call sucker bets can become the best bet on the table if the shooter is hitting them. That is the big catch to prop bets, the shooter has to be hitting them before you can bet on them!
Quote: RS
The $240 in odds don't have a house edge.
Are you saying 4 players are playing $12 6 and $12 8? Or $24 each? At a $10 table, I'd say they're probably playing $12 each.
(8*$10*0.0141) + ($24*4*0.0151) :. EV = $2.57 [for the house]
Hard 4 & 10 is 11%, Hard 6 & 8 is 9%, so average 10%. On the hardways alone, there'd need to be $25.7 just to be the same EV as the pass line bets. With 8 players at a $10 table, I'd say there's at least $30-40 on the hardways.
I'm talking averages here, not "always":
With 8 players (on a $10 table), I'd say there's at least $10-20 on hop bets on the come out roll (C, E, CE, horn, world, typically). Not to mention, when a bet hits, oftentimes people will press their bets, even some will parlay. At least one player will be betting $5 on all the hard ways once the point is established. And at least two players will be playing $1-2 on each of the hardways. 75% of the players will come back up on the hardway once it loses. 25% will let it fall and won't come back up on it. One player will be throwing out between $1-$5 on the YO [or other hop bet] every 2 or 3 rolls, at least. And there'd be at least $20 in the field every single roll. Then you got all those extra side bets, like fire, all-tall-small, or whatever else a casino may offer. Oh yeah, and a player or two who join the game after the point is established may make a PUT bet on the pass line -- 16% to 33% HE.
I think the prop box makes way more than half of the income for the table, I'd guess about 75%.
[spoiler][/spoiler]
In a 20-minute round (while on stick), I probably hand in $100-200 in red chips and $60-80 in white [$1] chips to the box because there's so much action in the prop box. On busy nights with heavy prop action, it's probably more like $400 in red and $120 in $1's.
My 2 cents.
Let's start with the spoiler. I don't doubt you on the amount you hand in, but you also never pay out of that stack. That is handled by the base dealers. So the hold from the prop bets is much less than what you hand in.
The hardways bets stay up for quite a while, so while there is always some action there, it is not resolved per roll, so the overall hold will again be less. And it would seem that if you have to pay out a couple of hardway bets on a roll, that would mean almost no hold for that shooter (I am guessing and am probably wrong. The math certainly says there is an expected hold).
I was saying $12 SIX and $12 EIGHT, which of course would be low on any table I have ever played at, especially when you think about presses.
When the 7 out comes, the center action collected is minimal, but the right side bettors are going to lose plenty. In my example, roughly $400-$500. Of course, if a shooter makes a point, then the house would barely break even on the right side bettors for that roll, since they have paid out true odds on the odds bets, which is almost half of the $400 in bets.
I certainly would not argue my side against any dealer. I know what I see on my sessions, but my one year session totals does not add up to what a dealer would see in one week. However, I would certainly take the UNDER if the line was 75% of the hold comes from the prop bets. I can't imagine it is that high.
I have to believe someone has done this analysis at some point. I would love to see the data.
Rick got 30 whites, and proceeded to bet $1 midnight for 30 straight rolls. I'm too lazy to look it up, but I think he won 3 times in those 30 rolls, for a $60 profit. If we had had deeper pockets, and a bit more conviction, it would have been $100 midnight each roll, which would have been a $6,000 profit.
Now I realize that is an exception, and it just as easily could have been a $3k loss. But I have been on many tables where we are all getting killed, but the dodo betting horn high every roll is cleaning up. I'll forever remember the kid at Hollywood betting $25 horn high, and just getting loaded up in greenies. He would bet for a bit, ratholing wins, and pretty soon his rail was empty, so he would walk away. But he could hardly walk straight with all the green in his pockets. The dealers and box would laugh like hell every time he did it. But that SOB ended up a winner for the night (unless he came back after I busted out).
I know none of this offsets the advantage the house has on these bets, but the short term results can certainly be dramatic.
Quote: RaleighCrapsI have blogged about it before, but Rick and I were playing at GVR in the past, and the 12 was coming up way more than 1 in 36 rolls. It was WAY to the right of that, something like 1 out of 9 rolls.
Rick got 30 whites, and proceeded to bet $1 midnight for 30 straight rolls. I'm too lazy to look it up, but I think he won 3 times in those 30 rolls, for a $60 profit. If we had had deeper pockets, and a bit more conviction, it would have been $100 midnight each roll, which would have been a $6,000 profit.
Now I realize that is an exception, and it just as easily could have been a $3k loss. But I have been on many tables where we are all getting killed, but the dodo betting horn high every roll is cleaning up. I'll forever remember the kid at Hollywood betting $25 horn high, and just getting loaded up in greenies. He would bet for a bit, ratholing wins, and pretty soon his rail was empty, so he would walk away. But he could hardly walk straight with all the green in his pockets. The dealers and box would laugh like hell every time he did it. But that SOB ended up a winner for the night (unless he came back after I busted out).
I know none of this offsets the advantage the house has on these bets, but the short term results can certainly be dramatic.
Nobody cares about short term results (unless a whale is involved) though.
However, if we were to compare only center table action, vs P/DP, Field, and Box numbers, then 75% is too high. I will let you include hops (many casinos don't allow hops), and Fire bet action is not that high (avg of $10 per shooter? Many times no one is playing the fire, so that has to drag the avg way down). All/Tall/Small gets a much higher avg bet from my experience, but it also pays out much more frequently, and it is ~8% vs the ~25% of the Fire bet.
Quote: sc15Nobody cares about short term results (unless a whale is involved) though.
I say EVERY player cares about short term results. That is what determines if you go home busted or with a fat pocket.
Now I agree the casino should not care about short term results, but even that we know is not 100% true.
Despite my nitpicking on the wording, I agree that the short term is not a predictor.
Quote: RaleighCrapsI say EVERY player cares about short term results. That is what determines if you go home busted or with a fat pocket.
Now I agree the casino should not care about short term results, but even that we know is not 100% true.
Despite my nitpicking on the wording, I agree that the short term is not a predictor.
Well, that's what I mean. I meant nobody cares in the context of this thread, which is about the casino's win. Nobody at the casino really cares about the short run, unless some billionaire hits them hard.
