Why? What am i missing?
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okQuote: mdsI don't understand.
I see the majority of those that take odds on the pass with 2X odds, even at 10 and 20X odds tables.Quote: mdsI have seen about Craps strategy people recommend (Not here) a pass line bet with 2-3 time odds.
$5 with $10 and $10 with $20
even saw a dealer try to get a $10/$20 player on a point of 6 to go to $25 odds
and the player did not want anything to do with that
because the pass line wins at a 49.3% rateQuote: mdsIf you are not going to take full odds on your pass line, then why even post a pass line bet.
better odds?Quote: mdsIf you want to throw the dice and you are playing at a $10 table with $200, I can see this as being valid only because you want to shoot.
Any other time you get better odds placing a bet at any level.
I disagree with you on this
what is your definition of *better odds*
the pass line, basically the 4 line bets win at a 49.3% rate
the place 6&8 win at a 45.45% rate
the Field bet wins at 44.44%
the place 5&9 at 40%
place 4&10 and Buy 4&10 at only 33.33%
you want to figure in the win rate with the net win?
now that leads you to the concept of expected value
from there we can get the house edge
I say do not go there
play the way that makes it more fun for you
just playing craps should be fun
IF you do not have fun while you are losing
in my opinion
playing craps is not for you
but that is OK
so have fun
Sally
Quote: mdsI don't understand. I have seen about Craps strategy people recommend (Not here) a pass line bet with 2-3 time odds. If you are not going to take full odds on your pass line, then why even post a pass line bet. If you want to throw the dice and you are playing at a $10 table with $200, I can see this as being valid only because you want to shoot. Any other time you get better odds placing a bet at any level. Also, if you are playing for $10-15 per bet, I would still recommend buying the 4 and 10 at $20 for the odds. 2:1 less $1 vs 9:5. Often when I play at $10-15 tables, I will see people make come bets with low odds or no odds. Same argument applies. I know years ago(more than a decade) many of the Vegas casinos gave better odds than 3,4,5 so the pass line and come bets made more sense. It doesn't make sense anymore. Someone explain to me where my math is missing. I love the game and I am always open to improving my odds.
Your "math" is actually missing.
Not sure why everyone is so hot on taking odds. Sure it's great if you wanna do it, but that's a matter of opinion. You still expect to lose the same amount with 1x or 100x odds.
many say for the same bankrollQuote: RSNot sure why everyone is so hot on taking odds.
it (taking odds) increases the chance of being even or ahead for any length a session or lifetime session
the increase, many times, is very large
Alan?
Steen?
compared to not taking the odds or taking less odds and making other bets with higher edges
I go with that one
everything is a matter of opinionQuote: RSSure it's great if you wanna do it, but that's a matter of opinion.
in my opinion
maybe notQuote: RSYou still expect to lose the same amount with 1x or 100x odds.
like flipping a coin 11 billion times and expecting to get exactly 5.5 billion heads
do not count on it
think percentages man, think it, live it, do it
now,
the difference I like is with 100X odds it only takes one more win to pull out a session win, if needed
0X or 1X odds, you got a lot of work to do, in my opinion, a lot of work
one will need many more wins to pull out a session win
and must do it fast and be accurate, or you be grumpy forever
that sure takes the fun out of playing craps
but for many
playing craps with or without odds is fun
just my opinion
Sally
what word(s) got twisted, in your opinionQuote: RSYou have an interesting way of twisting words, Sally.
I use spell check in Google Chrome, so any blame will (should) go to them
of course, what is missing are the best bets on the craps table, in my opinion
the Lay bets
they have the highest win rate
high rollers, the winners, do not at all care about the vig,
it is just the price to pay to win, over a lifetime of play, btw
but the op does not want to know about Lay bets, most all know nothing about them
sounds good to me
Sally
added:
I thought the op is a sure-fire craps winner
from his posts I would think
"FYI and for whatever it is worth..... I am now 100% sure as im here now.
Caesars counts all money on the table as your avg.
Im playing 1100 DP and 900 Do with 900 in odds on the don't.
2900 avg confirmed.
And im up. Yes!
By the way, the rainman suite is pretty nice.
Checking into Wynn tomorrow."
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/craps/18692-average-bet-at-caesars/
It's all an act/game (just my opinion).Quote: RSYou have an interesting way (edit) Sally.
but for many
acting with or without being odd is fun
just my opinion
Axel
I like gameQuote: AxelWolfIt's all an act/game (just my opinion). Axel
all about winning for me but sometimes the journey is fun too
if you play against me and
call me, I will win all your chips
if you raise me
I will still call you and win all your chips
if you fold, you fold
you have no chance of winning against me
gots to feel great!
btw, here are twisted words
steely dan
a toy for the masses
Sally
Even if you can buy a 4 or 10 with 5% commission only on the win, the house edge is 2.5%.
On the other hand, the house edge on the pass line is only about 1.41%, and, of course, the house edge on odds is zero.
However, mds does have a point; if you bet, say, 10 on pass with 20 odds twice, rather than betting that 60 on 10 on pass and 50 odds, you are subjecting 20 to the 1.414% house edge instead of just 10.
Quote: mustangsallywhat word(s) got twisted, in your opinion
I use spell check in Google Chrome, so any blame will (should) go to them
of course, what is missing are the best bets on the craps table, in my opinion
the Lay bets
they have the highest win rate
high rollers, the winners, do not at all care about the vig,
it is just the price to pay to win, over a lifetime of play, btw
but the op does not want to know about Lay bets, most all know nothing about them
sounds good to me
Sally
added:
I thought the op is a sure-fire craps winner
from his posts I would think
"FYI and for whatever it is worth..... I am now 100% sure as im here now.
Caesars counts all money on the table as your avg.
Im playing 1100 DP and 900 Do with 900 in odds on the don't.
2900 avg confirmed.
And im up. Yes!
By the way, the rainman suite is pretty nice.
Checking into Wynn tomorrow."
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/craps/18692-average-bet-at-caesars/
Mustang, Im surprised, wasn't it you who told me 2 years ago I was crazy playing the way I do? Doey/don't? Or are you being a little facetious? Remember to throw 25 on the 12 every other come out! By the way I've graduated to 2000 dp 1500 doey! 6000 odds from time to time. Call it pure luck but up the last 3 years.
it has been shown many times in the past (other threads and Alan S if memory is right)Quote: ThatDonGuyif you bet, say, 10 on pass with 20 odds twice, rather than betting that 60 on 10 on pass and 50 odds, you are subjecting 20 to the 1.414% house edge instead of just 10.
that fewer larger bets against a house edge is way better, or in other words, gives better odds
than making many smaller bets
but the public perception still dominates
in my opinion at the craps table
more bets made more often means more chances to win meaning better odds
more is better
those thoughts that cause actions will never be changed by anyone
including God and Satan
they are powerless
Sally
I am crazy, I agreeQuote: mds<snip> <snip>Call it pure luck but up the last 3 years.
what ever it takes to win is what I say
I give credit to variance and luck,
others give credit to themselves and others just have no clue what any of this is about...
and this is all OK
Sally
Quote: mustangsallyI am crazy, I agree
what ever it takes to win is what I say
I give credit to variance and luck,
others give credit to themselves and others just have no clue what any of this is about...
and this is all OK
Sally
Plus there is that little thing called THEO! :) But, never play for comps!
Quote: mustangsallyit has been shown many times in the past (other threads and Alan S if memory is right)
that fewer larger bets against a house edge is way better, or in other words, gives better odds
than making many smaller bets
but the public perception still dominates
in my opinion at the craps table
more bets made more often means more chances to win meaning better odds
When I first started playing craps, I played $10 pass and $20 odds, but not because of "more chances to win"; it was because I didn't want to lose my entire bankroll in a short time because of a few bad rolls. I won't hesitate playing full odds on a $5 3/4/5 table, but if it's 10x, I'll think about it before dropping a couple of greens on the felt.
Quote: rsactuaryI don't think the average gambler truly understands that an odds bet has no house edge. That's why they don't do it, or don't maximize it.
No house edge on odds and no player edge either. It mostly increases your volatility. On a hot table you win more and on a cold table you lose more.
Would have been more interesting if you kept it craps related and hadn't used poker terminology. (do you even play poker?)Quote: mustangsallyI like game
all about winning for me but sometimes the journey is fun too
if you play against me and
call me, I will win all your chips
if you raise me
I will still call you and win all your chips
if you fold, you fold
you have no chance of winning against me
gots to feel great!
btw, here are twisted words
steely dan
a toy for the masses
Sally
As far as the sex reference, that was predictable since you oftentimes yap about sex in your posts.
what else were you doing, I ask?Quote: ThatDonGuyI just spent the better part of 30 minutes trying to figure out at what level of odds is Pass & Odds better than placing numbers, only to realize something:
Even if you can buy a 4 or 10 with 5% commission only on the win, the house edge is 2.5%.
vig paid on a win only could be
$20 = 1/60 abouts 1.67%
$25 = 1/75 abouts 1.33%
and the rare but can be found
$30 and $1 vig paid on win = 1/90 abouts 1.11%
back to odds
but those like RS who say no difference between someone like Satan betting $5 with $10 odds
and God betting $5 with $500 odds, both having the same bankroll will expect to lose the same amount.
-707.07 say over 10,000 bets resolved
well, it should come as a complete surprise that this is NOT even close to any fair comparison,
more like comparing an apple to a rock... or rocks
one with an average bet of 11.67
the other with 338.33
hey, that makes for a large difference in the total money actually bet
that ain't fair boys and girls
but the vast majority of those that think they know, say what they know, but do not know, yeah
fall into this hole every single time
"IT IS FAIR!!"
they all cry
hahahaha
send them all away to clean the dishes
after the dishes are done, right
ice cream for all!
Sally
sorry to hear you had an accidentQuote: AxelWolfWould have been more interesting if you kept it craps related and hadn't used poker terminology. (do you even play poker?)
huh?Quote: AxelWolfAs far as the sex reference, that was predictable since you oftentimes yap about sex in your posts.
I wish you well
Sally
Quote: mustangsallywhat else were you doing, I ask?
vig paid on a win only could be
$20 = 1/60 abouts 1.67%
$25 = 1/75 abouts 1.33%
and the rare but can be found
$30 and $1 vig paid on win = 1/90 abouts 1.11%
For some reason, I thought "commission on win only" was paid on the winnings, as opposed to 5% of the bet.
Even at a table where the commission on win when buying is 1/30 of the bet, compare buying the 4 for N against a pass line bet of 1 with N-1 odds:
Buying the 4 has an EV of -N/90, or -1/90 of the original bet
The EV of 1 pass & N odds is -7/495 regardless of the odds, or (-7/495) / N of the original bet
The EV of pass & odds is greater when -7 / 495N > -1/90
Multiply both sides by 90 N: -630/495 > -N
Multiply both sides by -1, which changes the sign of the inequality: 630/495 < N
1 pass and N-1 odds is a better "percentage of the bet" EV when N > 14/11 - i.e. when your odds bet is more than 3/11 times your pass line bet.
Comparisons of straight EV are like betting on a fair coin toss - whether you bet $1 on each of 1000 tosses or $1000 on a single toss, the EV is zero, but in the latter case, your session ends a lot earlier.
for your example the EV does not matterQuote: ThatDonGuyComparisons of straight EV are like betting on a fair coin toss - whether you bet $1 on each of 1000 tosses or $1000 on a single toss, the EV is zero, but in the latter case, your session ends a lot earlier.
God, who bets $1000 on one coin toss knows the EV of 0 is meaningless
but maybe Satan who bets $1 for 1000 flips thinks differently
He thinks he is more likely to lose 0, nothing or maybe a few $$
hahaha
the chance of losing exactly $0 after 1000 bets = 2.5225%
the chance of losing $52 or more with a 0 EV bet = 5.33748%
more than twice the chance
but Satan says, no way, I will be right around 0
that is what 0 EV means
Satan could choose any interval and compare that to others but he is
very happy making 0 EV bets
so is God
me too
Sally
Quote: PBguyNo house edge on odds and no player edge either. It mostly increases your volatility. On a hot table you win more and on a cold table you lose more.
Yeah, but each time its called "free" odds so its like a beautiful woman: She can smile at you or she can slap your face, either way she is still a stunning broad. And if 1.414 percent is the price to find out which.... well, "hot" or "cold"... Bring it on!!
Remind me again what "EV" means. I Know about EVOO being a cooking oil.Quote: mustangsallyfor your example the EV does not matter
>>Satan could choose any interval and compare that to others but he is very happy making 0 EV bets
>>so is God
>>me too
I'll go back and re-read this when I find out what EV is.
i use expected value for evQuote: FleaStiffRemind me again what "EV" means. I Know about EVOO being a cooking oil.
it also means the average in math talk
i think we should change Don's example to have each do their experiment 1000 times
that makes for 1 million wagered
now who thinks they are both likely to lose $0
the expected value
after wagering $1 million each?
winner gets ice cream
Sally
Quote: mustangsallyi use expected value for ev
it also means the average in math talk
i think we should change Don's example to have each do their experiment 1000 times
that makes for 1 million wagered
now who thinks they are both likely to lose $0
the expected value
after wagering $1 million each?
Obviously, if you make an odd number of equal even-money bets (whether it's 1 bet of $1000, 5 bets of $200, 25 bets of $40, or 125 bets of $8), the probability of ending up with the same amount that you started with is zero.
No one said "likely." If you roll 1000 six-sided dice, the "expected" sum is 3500, but chances are you're not going to get that sum.
I play for the thrill of a potential hot roll, essentially having a good time win or lose. I hope I don't ruffle any feathers but sometimes I feel like these math related discussions become more about rationalizing; feeling like we have more control over the results than we actually do. I totally believe in maximizing my money and setting myself up to be in the best position but as I look around the casino and see the money being raked in every hand I know the HOUSE has the only equation that really works.
Quote: mustangsally
vig paid on a win only could be
$20 = 1/60 abouts 1.67%
$25 = 1/75 abouts 1.33%
and the rare but can be found
$30 and $1 vig paid on win = 1/90 abouts 1.11%
Quote: ThatDonGuyFor some reason, I thought "commission on win only" was paid on the winnings, as opposed to 5% of the bet.
Even at a table where the commission on win when buying is 1/30 of the bet, compare buying the 4 for N against a pass line bet of 1 with N-1 odds:
That's not what's happening here. It's a matter of at what bet amount the casino rounds up to the next dollar. If the bet is $20, the vig is exactly 5%, $1. If the bet is $25, 5% is $1.25, but no quarter chips any more, so most casinos just charge $1, making the vig really only 4%, so the HA is 1.33%. If you find a casino that charges only $1 on $30 bet, even better, vig is just 3.33%, HA 1.11%. Maybe you know this, but I couldn't tell.
Quote: ThatDonGuyBuying the 4 has an EV of -N/90, or -1/90 of the original bet
The EV of 1 pass & N odds is -7/495 regardless of the odds, or (-7/495) / N of the original bet
The EV of pass & odds is greater when -7 / 495N > -1/90
Multiply both sides by 90 N: -630/495 > -N
Multiply both sides by -1, which changes the sign of the inequality: 630/495 < N
1 pass and N-1 odds is a better "percentage of the bet" EV when N > 14/11 - i.e. when your odds bet is more than 3/11 times your pass line bet.
EV is always the same, regardless of odds, as you state. Then you start to use EV differently, as EV/bet handle, which is "edge". The EV of a $30 buy 4 with $1 vig paid on win only is -$.333. The EV of a $30 pass bet is -$.424, regardless of no odds or 100x odds, and the EV of the odds is always zero. Calculating edge using the odds amount, if any, in the divisor is misleading, in my view. You are not changing the expected loss by taking or laying odds.
