Giving Up the Game... Win or Losing Is Destiny for Some
Now I know several people will read this and say I've said all of this, because I'm getting my backside handed to me; they'll say that if I was winning more often, I wouldn't have posted this. Well, I'm here to say that they would be incorrect. I've had my fair share of big wins, and big losses, and along the way I've just noticed certain things that have happened playing the game of craps. I've seen people with no money to be able to sustain the game or last, walk away huge winners.... while the guy with a rack of Orange and Purple chips is getting his ass handed to him, and is trying every trick in the book to pull out a win. They eventually end up walking with a huge loss. Yet another guy wins ALL THE TIME... no matter what he does, and people try to follow that person and end up losing their asses. After they get wiped out, the winning person goes to back to winning big again, and people are left dazed and confused.
I've seen people who every time they play, play something crazy like the "Hi/Low", or Straight 12, Straight 2.... and they win CONSTANTLY. I mean they win about 80% of the time... averaging anywhere from $7,000 to $26,000+... all off of those crazy, super long shot type of bets. The very fact they win so much is what enables them to keep making them, keeping them with a sufficient bankroll to play that way... and of course, they just keep winning. Same goes for people who may play the Yo/Ace Deuce, or even the Hard Ways. Some people, no matter what the game variance is "supposed to be," no what the odds are "supposed to be," simply win most or all of the time.
I was Dark Side bettor and made a good portion of $$$ for a little while, but there was one point some years back that when the losing began, no matter what I did, it just didn't stop. It continued and continued. If I tried to play it safe, then I broke even "every single time." However, whenever I stepped away from the game to assess what was happening... people didn't seemed to be winning consistently one way or the other... they WERE WINNING CONSISTENTLY... ONE WAY OR THE OTHER. I mean either the Pass Line folks were burning it up and winning fire bets on consistently... or the Don't Pass folks were stacking the Green, Black, and even Orange with no fear, and were winning. I've watched this on multiple occasions and have scratched my head many times, wondering what I was doing wrong.
Also, I'm a developer with enough $$$ to sustain a large bankroll at any given time, yet it would seem like that didn't matter. I would lose consistently, and if I did win... it was only the amount to break back even from what I previously lost in a session. I wondered if was just me and not being lucky... I was very weird. And on the days there good wins, these were followed by immediate strings of multiple losses... no matter what I did or tried. Through it all, I saw the same people at all of the casinos I've visited from the East to the West coast who were regulars... and the people who win kept on winning... and the others were consistent losers, no matter what they did or whether they had a bankroll which "should have allowed them to sustain losing, en route to a win."
Now I will say that those people who seem destined to win do, in fact, lose; they just lose "less often," thus their winning makes up for it. I've learned that NO SYSTEM really works... casinos put a ton of $$$ into engineering wins for the house at the game of Craps. That's why they invest heavily into equipment such as bouncier vs. stiffer table layouts, smaller vs. longer tables, and "lighter dice." If there were ever any rolling or shooting strategies of old which did work, those have been are nullified by those changes in the gaming equipment. I watched a friend of mine on a trip to Hollywood casino in Lawerenceburg, Indiana crush the Don'ts for about $103,000... $12,000 went to dealers for tips.... it was meant for him to win that $$$ and STOP PLAYING THE GAME ALTOGETHER. What happened? Over the course of just 7 months, every strategy he tried ended up in smoke, and casinos eventually won back the money. How do I know? Because I part took of that win.
I've spent about $15,000 losing on the Pass Line consistently for weeks at a time, all while Don't Bettors were making a killing. Whenever I switched, I burned even more $$$, and the streaks of losing were just impossible to avoid. I've maybe caught a hot table 4 times in 3 years, but it too, seemed to fizzle whenever I played or joined in. I've lost to random rollers, who in my opinion are better than the so-called precision shooters. I used to be one, and schools or people selling that need to really stop... it doesn't work... it's just method to make you not worry as much about losing. That's until the losses start to pile up, and you actually see that the so-called precision shooters are always around and making $$$ themselves. They make the $$$ selling the false hope. So likewise, I've more $$$ to the DI guys who are supposed to be the creme of the crop. I've proven other dice combos don't yield what it's said they would yield.
I once sat there and burned another $20,000 over the course of a solid month, playing the Don't Pass... only to suffer the endless stream of come out 7s and 11s... I've played solo, and the same thing would happen more often than not. Especially given the odd of rolling an 11... yet the come and hurt you on the Don't Pass. If you try to play the Horn, you can only buffer the loss so much. I've experienced all this, and after 3 years of close study and just watching the things I've seen happen, I conclude that some people are meant to win, get lucky, and win consistently. Other people, no matter how knowledgeable, no matter the bankroll, no matter the few wins, or the strategy they employ, even stepping back from the game... will continue to lose and will never understand why. However, I took a good look at what's going on, I've taken heed.
I've written this mostly, because I see so many people with all of this talk of strategy, and this and that. None of it works, for it did, lawyers, doctors, and other developers like me, who make a decent living doing what we do, could stop those activities and feed off the casinos. Notice the only true game of skill like Blackjack, will get you booted from the casino. Go figure. Hopefully this will help someone asking themselves questions. Maybe some of you are like me: you've done it all, and you watch people just win, win, and win... and you're losing more often than winning, and it just isn't adding up. Not that you have a gambling issue, but you're taking an honest look at the game, and you're noticing a pattern that just applies your situation specifically, when it comes to winning or losing.
End closing, I can say whenever I stay away from the game, I always did better. It really burns to see some people and see that they're fortunate enough to live off the game, but I guess it's the same as to why some in life generally have or find huge/moderate success in whatever they do, and others do not. Billionaires aren't the ones to win the Powerball consistently, and they have enough $$$ to last a lifetime... it's usually the people who have nothing and are just simply "destined to win." I've found the same thing applies to Craps, as I can't say for any other game, as I haven't made it something to venture into. That said, it's been fun, but no thanks. Programming and serving clients is my destiny... so I'll just stick with that ;)
The problem I see is that you still believe there's a way to beat craps (just not you) That's what got you in this situation. NO ONE BEATS CRAPS DI DOESN'T WORK. Unless they have something extra going on.Quote: TruthYellerWell today, after maybe 3 years of consistent play, I'm finally hanging up my dice and calling it quits. Reason is due to the fact I can no bear the stress of what seems like my "Destiny Not To Win." It's more so that the light has come on and I'm just taking heed. I've come to the realization that after doing all of the homework, following all of the strategies, perfecting "multiple types of ways to set dice" and hope for an expected outcome... it all comes to naught. I've seen it all over the past 3 years, and I am now a firm believer in that if you're winning at playing the game of Craps, then it's "meant" for you to win. This is why the whales are the whales... it's meant for them to win. Conversely, this is why everyone else, no matter how much $$$ they throw at the game, cannot & will not win... It's not meant for them to win. Period.
Now I know several people will read this and say I've said all of this, because I'm getting my backside handed to me; they'll say that if I was winning more often, I wouldn't have posted this. Well, I'm here to say that they would be incorrect. I've had my fair share of big wins, and big losses, and along the way I've just noticed certain things that have happened playing the game of craps. I've seen people with no money to be able to sustain the game or last, walk away huge winners.... while the guy with a rack of Orange and Purple chips is getting his ass handed to him, and is trying every trick in the book to pull out a win. They eventually end up walking with a huge loss. Yet another guy wins ALL THE TIME... no matter what he does, and people try to follow that person and end up losing their asses. After they get wiped out, the winning person goes to back to winning big again, and people are left dazed and confused.
I've seen people who every time they play, play something crazy like the "Hi/Low", or Straight 12, Straight 2.... and they win CONSTANTLY. I mean they win about 80% of the time... averaging anywhere from $7,000 to $26,000+... all off of those crazy, super long shot type of bets. The very fact they win so much is what enables them to keep making them, keeping them with a sufficient bankroll to play that way... and of course, they just keep winning. Same goes for people who may play the Yo/Ace Deuce, or even the Hard Ways. Some people, no matter what the game variance is "supposed to be," no what the odds are "supposed to be," simply win most or all of the time.
I was Dark Side bettor and made a good portion of $$$ for a little while, but there was one point some years back that when the losing began, no matter what I did, it just didn't stop. It continued and continued. If I tried to play it safe, then I broke even "every single time." However, whenever I stepped away from the game to assess what was happening... people didn't seemed to be winning consistently one way or the other... they WERE WINNING CONSISTENTLY... ONE WAY OR THE OTHER. I mean either the Pass Line folks were burning it up and winning fire bets on consistently... or the Don't Pass folks were stacking the Green, Black, and even Orange with no fear, and were winning. I've watched this on multiple occasions and have scratched my head many times, wondering what I was doing wrong.
Also, I'm a developer with enough $$$ to sustain a large bankroll at any given time, yet it would seem like that didn't matter. I would lose consistently, and if I did win... it was only the amount to break back even from what I previously lost in a session. I wondered if was just me and not being lucky... I was very weird. And on the days there good wins, these were followed by immediate strings of multiple losses... no matter what I did or tried. Through it all, I saw the same people at all of the casinos I've visited from the East to the West coast who were regulars... and the people who win kept on winning... and the others were consistent losers, no matter what they did or whether they had a bankroll which "should have allowed them to sustain losing, en route to a win."
Now I will say that those people who seem destined to win do, in fact, lose; they just lose "less often," thus their winning makes up for it. I've learned that NO SYSTEM really works... casinos put a ton of $$$ into engineering wins for the house at the game of Craps. That's why they invest heavily into equipment such as bouncier vs. stiffer table layouts, smaller vs. longer tables, and "lighter dice." If there were ever any rolling or shooting strategies of old which did work, those have been are nullified by those changes in the gaming equipment. I watched a friend of mine on a trip to Hollywood casino in Lawerenceburg, Indiana crush the Don'ts for about $103,000... $12,000 went to dealers for tips.... it was meant for him to win that $$$ and STOP PLAYING THE GAME ALTOGETHER. What happened? Over the course of just 7 months, every strategy he tried ended up in smoke, and casinos eventually won back the money. How do I know? Because I part took of that win.
I've spent about $15,000 losing on the Pass Line consistently for weeks at a time, all while Don't Bettors were making a killing. Whenever I switched, I burned even more $$$, and the streaks of losing were just impossible to avoid. I've maybe caught a hot table 4 times in 3 years, but it too, seemed to fizzle whenever I played or joined in. I've lost to random rollers, who in my opinion are better than the so-called precision shooters. I used to be one, and schools or people selling that need to really stop... it doesn't work... it's just method to make you not worry as much about losing. That's until the losses start to pile up, and you actually see that the so-called precision shooters are always around and making $$$ themselves. They make the $$$ selling the false hope. So likewise, I've more $$$ to the DI guys who are supposed to be the creme of the crop. I've proven other dice combos don't yield what it's said they would yield.
I once sat there and burned another $20,000 over the course of a solid month, playing the Don't Pass... only to suffer the endless stream of come out 7s and 11s... I've played solo, and the same thing would happen more often than not. Especially given the odd of rolling an 11... yet the come and hurt you on the Don't Pass. If you try to play the Horn, you can only buffer the loss so much. I've experienced all this, and after 3 years of close study and just watching the things I've seen happen, I conclude that some people are meant to win, get lucky, and win consistently. Other people, no matter how knowledgeable, no matter the bankroll, no matter the few wins, or the strategy they employ, even stepping back from the game... will continue to lose and will never understand why. However, I took a good look at what's going on, I've taken heed.
I've written this mostly, because I see so many people with all of this talk of strategy, and this and that. None of it works, for it did, lawyers, doctors, and other developers like me, who make a decent living doing what we do, could stop those activities and feed off the casinos. Notice the only true game of skill like Blackjack, will get you booted from the casino. Go figure. Hopefully this will help someone asking themselves questions. Maybe some of you are like me: you've done it all, and you watch people just win, win, and win... and you're losing more often than winning, and it just isn't adding up. Not that you have a gambling issue, but you're taking an honest look at the game, and you're noticing a pattern that just applies your situation specifically, when it comes to winning or losing.
End closing, I can say whenever I stay away from the game, I always did better. It really burns to see some people and see that they're fortunate enough to live off the game, but I guess it's the same as to why some in life generally have or find huge/moderate success in whatever they do, and others do not. Billionaires aren't the ones to win the Powerball consistently, and they have enough $$$ to last a lifetime... it's usually the people who have nothing and are just simply "destined to win." I've found the same thing applies to Craps, as I can't say for any other game, as I haven't made it something to venture into. That said, it's been fun, but no thanks. Programming and serving clients is my destiny... so I'll just stick with that ;)
However, funny thing... on the night me and the buddy hit the Don'ts for that $103,000... that casino upgraded to newer, smaller tables in the next 2 weeks following. A client of mine of who used to work as a dealer gave me the skinny on what I had already known to be true to a degree. The casino previously had the long tables, where the layout had a certain "grip" to it. Lot of my $$$ was made there and it was on the Don'ts... everyone made on the Don'ts there it seemed like. I mean you had the hot fire rolls everyone now and then, but those tables were known for being Seven Out tables. When the dice would land, the layout seemed to pull the dice, and stop most of the spin, unless someone was throwing em hard and crazy.
Also, that particular casino uses thicker/heavier dice, than does the casino near me... here in Cincy, Ohio... those dice are super lightweight and tables are butter soft. Anyways, my client who now works for a different casino in Indiana, told me that they were losing a lot more on the Don't players who played there over time... When Cincy opened up the Horseshoe, they took and are still taking a lot of business. The Hollywood in Indiana lost the players to played the Pass Line mostly, and you had most of the Don't players choosing to play in Indy versus Cincinnati... and you COULD TELL THE DIFFERENCES IN THE TABLES!
Anyways, once Indy switched to some Kevlar type of tables, where those heavy dice bounce crazily or "slide".... no more big winning on the Sevens, and if you win on the Pass Line, it's just fate really. The casino figured out a way to stop the constant winning for some. So there was some of us who won all the time on the old tables, and that is the "exception" to what my post was about. That change and the results allowed me to see that with the true random nature of the game, some people are meant to win, and others not so much. I can say that I could depend on $500 No Fours and $500 No Tens keeping my bank account padded on Sundays... which is when I would play really high in the mornings.
My point is that there was a condition that when it was exploited, the casino was at a disadvantage. Funny now that they varied the playing surface, I'd see the regulars bounce back and forth looking and thirsting for that win. It used to be there!
Sometimes I wish there was a visual representation of a table on super fast forward to see that in the course of the long term the casino ends up racking chips while players slowly lose their buy in, unless of course they have an advantage.
I chose rather to attempt to become a student of the game, not necessarily to "beat it." I was a person who does what any person does when playing any game, where the objective is to win... I tried to see how often I could win more often as opposed to losing, which I know is bound to happen. I don't really get caught up in excitement or anything, because to me it was never about fun. Winning is very cool and feels good, but I don't if I would call it fun at any time. I simply wanted to gain as much knowledge of the game and do the very best I could do while engaged in play. Besides, the main goal of a DI is to attempt to roll as long as possible before getting a Seven... I was into that for awhile and found out real quick that's hogwash. You obviously didn't read well enough, because I mentioned trying various ways of betting and playing, simply to win often, and lose less than I would win.
So, if I decided to play for say, and hour and a half, and could successfully employ certain bets... whether Pass Line, Don'ts... Field, Place Bets/DCs, etc... doing all of this during that 1.5 hrs and win most of the time, then that's what I aimed for. Not beat the casino for crazy amounts of money. That night on the Don'ts for $103,000 was PURE LUCK. I got toasted with my buddy and just followed him laying on Don't Pass... I learned that once we got over a certain amount, unless the table at the time turned and stayed red hot for a long time, that nothing would hurt us that night. But again... that was an EXCEPTION and has never happened again, nor since, at least while I've been playing. I was also the guy who said: "ENOUGH, LETS GO MAN." And even though we are buds, the beige jackets didn't like me trying to pull him from the table with our winnings 2 years ago. My pal is a very aggressive player, and he dealt at the casino across state lines as a Craps dealer. But he only plays the Don'ts. I had stop playing with him, because if I didn't, I would be homeless. He goes in and gets in deep! I heard some other guys hit for like $240,000 going on Don'ts, but again, granted the way the game is, when something like that happens, it's purely meant for it to happen.
Like I said, I respect your opinion on tables, but I know what I see and have experienced. Most times, even while losing, I was studying why the things that happened seemed to have sort of a pattern to them, especially in certain environments with different table surfaces and etc. Again... case in point is something like an "Eleven"... for this to have a very small percentage of showing... very strange you'll see it appear more times than a 6 & 8 on a come out roll. All I'm saying is that certain people are just meant to win, and some are not gonna win... I don't have anything to sell for someone to buy into. I'm not the only person who has experienced this... but yet I'm perhaps one of the few who will sound off about it. What's wrong with doing that, if I'm being truthful?
There is a reason why you see billy walters with millions, doyle Brunson with millions but you don't see john Patrick or heavy Haltom with millions, you just see
them schleping there useless goods.
You've been duped by the charlatans of dice control. Setting the dice has absolutely no affect on the dice once you throw them across the table and they hit the wall. You are exactly who Casinos love.
Play craps or whatever game you like for fun. Consider it the same as going out to dinner or watching a movie or seeing a sporting event. When you're all done you've purchased entertainment. If you win a few times along the way it just gets you more entertainment.
ZCore13
However, Zcore13, I can agree with you on that... some people were good playing the charlatan; huge buy ins to impress the table. Those are the people everytime you walk in and they're always at the tables... for DAYS... you can tell. All they were doing was recycling win money. So I can feel when you say that. Either way, I've had my fair share.... I'm outta there for good. :)
But again... they are guys who play successfully with Orange level chips and win consistently. They play for maybe no more than 30 mins, and they're gone. At that level, it doesn't take much. They're other guys who maybe a construction business, small industrial or law firm. They usually play for a super short time in the mornings. I tried that with my Orange and got broke down really quickly. Wasn't meant for me to get ahead like that.
Quote: TruthYellerI wonder why everyone is focusing on Dice Control, when that isn't the main point of what I'm saying? See... this is what I'm talking about when I say some people had deep set opinions on one thing or the other. As I've banned myself from what I would consider to be the last casino on my playing list, previously, I didn't care how I won... Do or the Don'ts. A win was a win to me.
However, Zcore13, I can agree with you on that... some people were good playing the charlatan; huge buy ins to impress the table. Those are the people everytime you walk in and they're always at the tables... for DAYS... you can tell. All they were doing was recycling win money. So I can feel when you say that. Either way, I've had my fair share.... I'm outta there for good. :)
But again... they are guys who play successfully with Orange level chips and win consistently. They play for maybe no more than 30 mins, and they're gone. At that level, it doesn't take much. They're other guys who maybe a construction business, small industrial or law firm. They usually play for a super short time in the mornings. I tried that with my Orange and got broke down really quickly. Wasn't meant for me to get ahead like that.
There's a pretty old trick mixed in there. I don't remember what the odds are, maybe someone here can help, but if someone is willing to risk $1,000 to win $100, they will win a huge majority of the time. You could watch them win 6, 7, 8 times in a row. Then they'll lose the $1,000, but in your mind they either won 8 out of 9 and you think they are ahead or maybe you weren't there to see the one lose, but it was big.
I work at a Casino. I talk to Casino people just about every day of the week. Trust me. Nobody wins that plays regularly. Not in craps or any other game. Unless you are one of the rare card counters that can get away with it over the long hall without getting caught, it does not happen.
ZCore13
I know I would stand and just watch, and if you tried to join them, they would pack up shop and bounce. Period. No questions asked... "You all have a nice day..." is what one guy would say as he would nicely gather his chips and leave. I NEVER saw them down. I sat and would literally watch em and say... "How can I get to that level... just a few good hits and leave?" One man who still plays, always left with an extra $5,000 every time I saw him, and the pit boss told me... "Anyone comes to the table, and that guy leaves. He probably 1 of 3 guys who really wins all the time, AND he owns some company. He never stays for more than 45 minutes. And if you see him any other time... then something's wrong... but trust me, you won't."
I must say, when saw and heard that... that's what I wanted. Could never reach it though.
Quote: TruthYellerWell said. I only saw those guys come maybe 3 times a week, and they would usually have about 7 or 8 Orange, hand full of Purple, and about $1,000 in Black. They'd play a little... win those 4, 5 or 6 times. Then if they lost, they were usually still up pretty good, that at 3 days playing like that, it was very a nice check if you'd look at in terms of someone working. Then some weeks, maybe one or two, you wouldn't see em. So maybe they have enough stashed away, and they've won so much, that they've built a reserve, and are EXTREMELY DISCIPLINED.
I know I would stand and just watch, and if you tried to join them, they would pack up shop and bounce. Period. No questions asked... "You all have a nice day..." is what one guy would say as he would nicely gather his chips and leave. I NEVER saw them down. I sat and would literally watch em and say... "How can I get to that level... just a few good hits and leave?" One man who still plays, always left with an extra $5,000 every time I saw him, and the pit boss told me... "Anyone comes to the table, and that guy leaves. He probably 1 of 3 guys who really wins all the time, AND he owns some company. He never stays for more than 45 minutes. And if you see him any other time... then something's wrong... but trust me, you won't."
I must say, when saw and heard that... that's what I wanted. Could never reach it though.
This post doesn't make sense. A pit boss would never talk about a players winnings or losses and he wouldn't welcome anyone who he thought was a consistent winner. I've been dealing for over 40 years and in the long run have never seen a winner. Not one. They all give it back. A casino's biggest worry is if a guy wins big he will give it back at a different place.
I'm sorry but I think you're a bit out of reality and your seeing only what you want to see. For all you know the other days they are losing thousands in a different casino.Quote: TruthYellerWell said. I only saw those guys come maybe 3 times a week, and they would usually have about 7 or 8 Orange, hand full of Purple, and about $1,000 in Black. They'd play a little... win those 4, 5 or 6 times. Then if they lost, they were usually still up pretty good, that at 3 days playing like that, it was very a nice check if you'd look at in terms of someone working. Then some weeks, maybe one or two, you wouldn't see em. So maybe they have enough stashed away, and they've won so much, that they've built a reserve, and are EXTREMELY DISCIPLINED.
I know I would stand and just watch, and if you tried to join them, they would pack up shop and bounce. Period. No questions asked... "You all have a nice day..." is what one guy would say as he would nicely gather his chips and leave. I NEVER saw them down. I sat and would literally watch em and say... "How can I get to that level... just a few good hits and leave?" One man who still plays, always left with an extra $5,000 every time I saw him, and the pit boss told me... "Anyone comes to the table, and that guy leaves. He probably 1 of 3 guys who really wins all the time, AND he owns some company. He never stays for more than 45 minutes. And if you see him any other time... then something's wrong... but trust me, you won't."
I must say, when saw and heard that... that's what I wanted. Could never reach it though.
Perhaps you've stumbled on some cheating.
Believe nothing of what you hear, and only half of what you see.
No one has a lucky system or skill. Everything averages out including life itself. Perhaps these guys you believe are winning at craps lose everything at slots or sports. They might just be rich because they won a massive lawsuit under horrible conditions.
Seriously, you need to come to the reality you're not jinxed, the numbers add up to -EV, the game is designed for you to lose and that's exactly what happened.
You fail to realize that there are some pit bosses, boxmen/women, and dealers... who are ULTRA BADASS on a packed or busy day or around certain other workers... but when you forge a relationship with certain of those people, they'll tell you stuff. Having done this for 40 years, I'd expect you'd know the type. Vegas and Atlantic City aren't the only places that have decent casinos you know. C'mon, man.
One other thing I've learned that some of you people are perhaps to caught with all the Math and calculations, and being Craps wise-guys, that you fail to just accept things for what they are. Not everything has a sub-plot behind it. I never said I was jinxed... lol... I simply said that some people are meant to win, and others are not. There's no jinx to it. I've accepted that reality.
I think most who haven't accepted this, tend to make and use excuses for not winning, or why they feel it can't be done, rather than accepting that they either are or are not one of those people. No one cheating like that, in full eye of the camera, solo on a table playing with high level chips. C'mon, man. I accept I can't do what the other guys do. It's that simple. I'm not pissed, heck... I'm actually relieved that I still have a few decent duckets left to sit on and have lost the taste for playing Craps due to losing. I tried, had my little glory, and that was it. Yet I'm not gonna hate on the guys who are getting it and doing well. I recognize everyone can't be the same. I'm not going to make an excuse as to why they're winning... like cheating or some trash like that. I'm happy for those people... just wished I could have the juice too, to do well mostly from time to time.
I haven't been doing anything for 40 years.Quote: TruthYellerPlease remember that not all Casino staff are stiffs... especially early morning 1st people, and some are actually very nice. Nice enough to tell you in a very low voice with dealers at the table they can trust, and tell you that you'd be better off doing something else. Yeah pal, it happens. Dealers where you are, in the location you're in, aren't the same nationwide. I don't care if you've been doing it for 80 years.... not everyone's the same, and that really the whole point of this thread. Some things work for some, and not others.
You fail to realize that there are some pit bosses, boxmen/women, and dealers... who are ULTRA BADASS on a packed or busy day or around certain other workers... but when you forge a relationship with certain of those people, they'll tell you stuff. Having done this for 40 years, I'd expect you'd know the type. Vegas and Atlantic City aren't the only places that have decent casinos you know. C'mon, man.
Yes I know there's more places than AC and Vegas, I've been to 3 different states gambling in less than 25 days.
Quote: TruthYellerThen I suppose the casino would just lie for no reason then. If I used to play everyday of the week for 2 years straight, since hitting that score, and I see people on the same schedule on usually the same days, and these people LEAVE when they see people joining their action, THAT SHOULD TELL YOU SOMETHING.
One other thing I've learned that some of you people are perhaps to caught with all the Math and calculations, and being Craps wise-guys, that you fail to just accept things for what they are. Not everything has a sub-plot behind it. I never said I was jinxed... lol... I simply said that some people are meant to win, and others are not. There's no jinx to it. I've accepted that reality.
I think most who haven't accepted this, tend to make and use excuses for not winning, or why they feel it can't be done, rather than accepting that they either are or are not one of those people. No one cheating like that, in full eye of the camera, solo on a table playing with high level chips. C'mon, man. I accept I can't do what the other guys do. It's that simple. I'm not pissed, heck... I'm actually relieved that I still have a few decent duckets left to sit on and have lost the taste for playing Craps due to losing. I tried, had my little glory, and that was it. Yet I'm not gonna hate on the guys who are getting it and doing well. I recognize everyone can't be the same. I'm not going to make an excuse as to why they're winning... like cheating or some trash like that. I'm happy for those people... just wished I could have the juice too, to do well mostly from time to time.
I'm far from a craps wise-guy. Haha. I would also like to mention that some of us who aren't in full agreement with you are on your side with the idea that people can consistently win in casinos. People are able to take advantage of good situations, play for years and regularly profit. These people play slots, blackjack and find other good opportunities in casinos, but craps unfortunately doesn't fall under that "beatable games" category. Few will win consistently. I'm not saying they cheated. However, people have a tendency to mention the wins and not the losses and that's good to consider. Additionally, many casino employees would want you to believe there are people constantly winning to sway you into playing more.
When people leave due to others' arrival, it might just be that they are superstitious. How would others affect them?
I don't want you to think I believe your ideas to be bad or that I dislike you, I'm merely offering some explanations that offer another perspective to the idea of destiny.
Quote: MintyHmm. Let's see if there's a way to frame this that satisfies everyone. You've seen people that you claim win consistently and are long-term winners. You believe they will continue to be winners because of fate or destiny, some kind of external force. This is a bit unsettling to other members of the forum, because many of us are mathematically inclined and look at these claims from a statistical perspective. I personally don't believe that there is anything beyond our control influencing the results of the game (a god would probably have more important issues to deal with than some rolls of dice). However, it's possible that what you mean by "luck" that is helping these players is really just unlikely statistical findings on a normal curve. They way it works is that a small fraction of players will have losses that are very rare. The majority of players lose, but not as severely. Then finally, you have a very tiny group that actually are fortunate enough to beat the game, not through skill or ability, but through what you are calling luck, or variability in the results. With few enough sessions, it's possible that people will experience positive variance (good luck) and come out winners, but again, this is a small number. Like other posters have said, systems won't make this more likely, it's just the way random events work.
AND YOU MY FRIEND GET THE DIAMOND AWARD... You truly get it and said something that makes sense, rather than assuming. Somebody's been reading here :) Perfect answer!
Quote: MintyI'm far from a craps wise-guy. Haha. I would also like to mention that some of us who aren't in full agreement with you are on your side with the idea that people can consistently win in casinos. People are able to take advantage of good situations, play for years and regularly profit. These people play slots, blackjack and find other good opportunities in casinos, but craps unfortunately doesn't fall under that "beatable games" category. Few will win consistently. I'm not saying they cheated. However, people have a tendency to mention the wins and not the losses and that's good to consider. Additionally, many casino employees would want you to believe there are people constantly winning to sway you into playing more.
When people leave due to others' arrival, it might just be that they are superstitious. How would others affect them?
I don't want you to think I believe your ideas to be bad or that I dislike you, I'm merely offering some explanations that offer another perspective to the idea of destiny.
Nah... I'm good. You hit the nail on the head with the post before this one. I can rest and bury my dice, and go sail out to sea on that one. It's been a ride. At least I gave it good run.
Quote: AxelWolfI haven't been doing anything for 40 years.
Yes I know there's more places than AC and Vegas, I've been to 3 different states gambling in less than 25 days.
Brother Minty couldn't have summed it up better...
There's nothing remarkable about the fact that you have not been a long term winner. And there is no good reason that other people have been winners and 'not you'; if life was fair, it would be you, not those other bums LOL. I say that to commiserate with you sincerely.
All this "meant to be" stuff, that's why I think you should hang it up. That way madness lies, sir.
So don't click on the link. I want to post it to show that it is possible to be a long time winner at Craps. Of course, that drives everybody crazy, and you are already on the edge? I have actually done a lot of simulations using the Wincraps program that show even at 3x4x5 odds, long term winners exist [depends on the definition of long term, but generally speaking I would do simulations that exceeded more hands than I myself will see in my lifetime]. At 10x odds or more, it starts to take billions of rolls to be almost sure to be a loser. So naturally it bugs me to see someone say long term winners are impossible.
As for that last sentence, two things:
-I rarely see anyone who plays in a manner that gives them any chance at all to do this.
-my advice to anyone - anyone - is to never expect to be a long term winner, even if you do everything right.
As for myself, I am a long term loser, I keep very good records. Since irregularly playing Craps starting December 2003 [ a few times a year, never as much as once a month] I have lost $2803 gambling, mostly at Craps. But I coulda been a contender! the way I played*, but I am still sane [I hope] because I never expected to be in the plus column. It simply is too much to hope for.
https://wizardofvegas.com/member/odiousgambit/blog/5/#post854
*I can say with confidence that 99.9% of my casino gambling has been against a HE of less than 1%
Well, you know, I've never felt that bringing mysticism into anything ever improves things (and it often makes things dramatically worse). You have a mystical bent: you believe in destiny. Some old Greek guy once said, "Character determines destiny." I dunno. As a hard core materialist I tend to agree (although an awful lot of luck enters into things too! I figure character counts for about 1/20th and luck about 19/20ths -- think about that the next time you meet a self-made billionaire). But I also have met my share of craps players who use the term "unlucky" when, really, they make the really really bad bets and lose a lot faster (not saying you do that; you have obviously given this a great deal of thought and have an analytical mind); but you get my point: people often use terms like "luck" as a cover for "bad decisions."
You should look up "teleology" and then, as a comparison, look at how animals (including humans) react to random/intermittent reinforcement schedules under behavioral conditioning. Which sums up craps if you ask me. You reject the overt behavioral conditioning you have received, and now ascribe it to teleology (purpose). The next phase generally involves learned helplessness -- which I think you might have reached (as in: "nothing I can do will make things better so I may as well do nothing at all.").
You see, you made a fundamental mistake if you ask me (which you didn't): you kept playing even when you didn't get any fun out of it. Now why would you do that? When I stop having fun playing then I stop! I can find plenty of other aesthetic distractions in this world. This applies to any game I play.
To me, one of the joys I get from playing craps involves watching how humans react to random numbers. Almost all of them, like you, ascribe some mystical force to things, like "destiny" or "luck" or whatever. In fact, I've noticed that some cultures tend to use gambling as a touchstone for how the "gods" (for want of a better term; as a hard-core atheist and materialist I don't want to offend the faithful among you) treat them at the moment. But I'd lie if I said this doesn't amuse me.
Lastly, you should take a look at statistical outliers. Some people will win a lot just due to randomness (and vice-versa). Oh, and you could take a look at confirmation bias too: the winners tend to make a lot of noise and stand out so you notice them more. The losers tend to slink away into obscurity. (And no: I do not consider the casions "evil" or anything like that -- the rules of the games: very clear! more power to them!).
It all comes down to whether you believe that the universe has some purpose. You clearly do. You believe in "destiny" and if that comforts you: fine! Me? As an existential nihilist I don't believe in anything at all. I don't believe in "destiny" or "luck" or, well, as I wrote" anything at all. And I have found that not having beliefs really makes it a lot easier to KNOW those very few things I can actually know (very little, I admit -- but at least I actively try not to fool myself). And you know what? I've found that belief gets in the way of knowledge. I don't claim this as an easy way to go through life (in fact: I sort of envy the vast majority of deluded people because they can cope a lot better with misfortune than I can). But I do claim my philosophy as more honest, and you seem like a very honest fellow so maybe you ought to give it a try and stop fooling yourself and only play for fun.
And a comment for the rest of you: I know something about software development and intelligent people. They don't seem any less susceptible to the common statistical errors and other fallacies than anyone else. Just in case anyone wondered. In fact, the smarter people I know seem really really really good at fooling themselves. In fact, they seem a lot better at it than the other folks. Which makes sense, if you think about it.
I love craps, but only play it an hour or two a day now, it's just too crazy.
ok thenQuote: odiousgambitI want to post it to show that it is possible to be a long time winner at Craps.
Of course, that drives everybody crazy, and you are already on the edge?
I have actually done a lot of simulations using the Wincraps program that show even at 3x4x5 odds, long term winners exist [depends on the definition of long term,
1st point is many will say that a computer simulation will never be the same as actual dice rolling on a real craps table.
I wonder if they are the majority here.
ok, now,
say 1 million dice rolls = long term (not long run = forever) for an example
it could take some time to see that many over a course of time.
I use 81 rolls per hour (36+36+9)
1 million / 81 = 12,345.7 hours
not that bad or good
say one plays 4 hours each day and every day (say Ahigh style)
12,345.7 hours / 4 = 3,086.4 days
3,086.4 days = 8.4559 years
who IS 1 in a million?
so this could be done and if we limit to 2 hours of play on average now we are at 8.459*2 years to play over 1 million dice rolls
point is, in my opinion, 1 million dice rolls seen is in a long term.
and you say 345X odds on pass line (?) I get about 1 in 17 would be expected to NOT be a loser.
I bet all craps expert writers just got their feathers ruffled too, in my opinion that is.
just making the same average bet over and over again
about 296,230 of them
Sally IS a 1 in 17, btw
here is sim data too
Simulation of Craps Pass Line Wagers
Odds Multiplier . . . . = 3x, 4x, 5x
Session Bankroll . . . = 1000000.00
Session will not quit at any win goal
Max. No. rolls to quit = 1000000
No. Sessions simulated = 10000
Starting Random seed . = 4300026
------------------------------------
All bets are a single unit
------------------------------------
Simulation Results per Session
------------------------------------
Avg. No. games played . = 296238.40
Avg. No. games won . . = 146026.94
Avg. No. games lost . . = 150211.46
Avg. No. dice rolls . . = 1000002.46
Avg. Total amount bet . = 296238.40
Avg. amount bet on Odds = 822875.88
Bankroll was busted . . = 0.000% of the time ( 0)
Win goal was met . . . = 0.000% of the time ( 0)
Bankroll decreased . . = 93.730% of the time
Bankroll increased . . = 6.260% of the time <<< Ahhh 1 in 16
and from ev/sd
a table I see in Excel
of NOT being a loser over 1 million dice rolls betting pass line every come out roll and you get the point
| 1 in | Odds |
|---|---|
| 144,161,725,677,019 | 0 |
| 41,780.34 | 1 |
| 282.58 | 2 |
| 44.37 | 3 |
| 17.04 | 345X |
| 18.00 | 4 |
| 10.73 | 5 |
| 7.72 | 6 |
| 6.16 | 7 |
| 5.23 | 8 |
| 4.62 | 9 |
| 4.20 | 10 |
| 2.81 | 20 |
what exactly are you trying to say?Quote: odiousgambitbut generally speaking I would do simulations that exceeded more hands than I myself will see in my lifetime].
you do more than 1 million dice rolls in a session of play?
many will say that is not a real life situation, you may know this already.
yesQuote: odiousgambitAt 10x odds or more, it starts to take billions of rolls to be almost sure to be a loser.
billions are way more than millions
here is what I get in Excel
1 in
(will not be a loser)
10x: 71056369996577000000000000000000000
000000000000000000000000000000000000000
00000000000000000000000000000000000000.00
20x: 15890872817805300000000000000000.00
40x: 822,653,573.55
50x: 1,208,821.31
60x: 32,044.56
80x: 771.88
100x: 127.02
me, Sally IS 1 in 127, yes, btw
they are fools I sayQuote: odiousgambitSo naturally it bugs me to see someone say long term winners are impossible.
it should be said that the more bets you make the chances of being a lifetime loser increases
but NO craps gaming writer will ever say that, in my opinion
Sally
Quote: mustangsallyok thenQuote: odiousgambitI want to post it to show that it is possible to be a long time winner at Craps.
Of course, that drives everybody crazy, and you are already on the edge?
I have actually done a lot of simulations using the Wincraps program that show even at 3x4x5 odds, long term winners exist [depends on the definition of long term,
1st point is many will say that a computer simulation will never be the same as actual dice rolling on a real craps table.
I wonder if they are the majority here.
ok, now,
say 1 million dice rolls = long term (not long run = forever) for an example
it could take some time to see that many over a course of time.
I use 81 rolls per hour (36+36+9)
1 million / 81 = 12,345.7 hours
not that bad or good
say one plays 4 hours each day and every day (say Ahigh style)
12,345.7 hours / 4 = 3,086.4 days
3,086.4 days = 8.4559 years
who IS 1 in a million?
so this could be done and if we limit to 2 hours of play on average now we are at 8.459*2 years to play over 1 million dice rolls
point is, in my opinion, 1 million dice rolls seen is in a long term.
and you say 345X odds on pass line (?) I get about 1 in 17 would be expected to NOT be a loser.
I bet all craps expert writers just got their feathers ruffled too, in my opinion that is.
just making the same average bet over and over again
about 296,230 of them
Sally IS a 1 in 17, btw
here is sim data too
Simulation of Craps Pass Line Wagers
Odds Multiplier . . . . = 3x, 4x, 5x
Session Bankroll . . . = 1000000.00
Session will not quit at any win goal
Max. No. rolls to quit = 1000000
No. Sessions simulated = 10000
Starting Random seed . = 4300026
------------------------------------
All bets are a single unit
------------------------------------
Simulation Results per Session
------------------------------------
Avg. No. games played . = 296238.40
Avg. No. games won . . = 146026.94
Avg. No. games lost . . = 150211.46
Avg. No. dice rolls . . = 1000002.46
Avg. Total amount bet . = 296238.40
Avg. amount bet on Odds = 822875.88
Bankroll was busted . . = 0.000% of the time ( 0)
Win goal was met . . . = 0.000% of the time ( 0)
Bankroll decreased . . = 93.730% of the time
Bankroll increased . . = 6.260% of the time <<< Ahhh 1 in 16
and from ev/sd
a table I see in Excel
of NOT being a loser over 1 million dice rolls betting pass line every come out roll and you get the point
1 in Odds 144,161,725,677,019 0 41,780.34 1 282.58 2 44.37 3 17.04 345X 18.00 4 10.73 5 7.72 6 6.16 7 5.23 8 4.62 9 4.20 10 2.81 20
what exactly are you trying to say?
you do more than 1 million dice rolls in a session of play?
many will say that is not a real life situation, you may know this already.
yes
billions are way more than millions
here is what I get in Excel
1 in
(will not be a loser)
10x: 71056369996577000000000000000000000
000000000000000000000000000000000000000
00000000000000000000000000000000000000.00
20x: 15890872817805300000000000000000.00
40x: 822,653,573.55
50x: 1,208,821.31
60x: 32,044.56
80x: 771.88
100x: 127.02
me, Sally IS 1 in 127, yes, btw
they are fools I say
it should be said that the more bets you make the chances of being a lifetime loser increases
but NO craps gaming writer will ever say that, in my opinion
Sally
It's not realistic to simulate with an unlimited bankroll. Many if not most of those 1 in 16 will not have the bankroll to continue playing.
ZCore13
sure it is realisticQuote: Zcore13
It's not realistic to simulate with an unlimited bankroll. Many if not most of those 1 in 16 will not have the bankroll to continue playing.
ZCore13
and a point well taken
it takes money to make a bet and more money to make many bets
this makes sure every bet could be made
it was my simulation
of course ev/sd does the same thing
Sally
added
here are 1 million roll bankroll units to think about (for the 345x example)
| unit bank for 1 million rolls | 1 in X NOT show net loss |
|---|---|
| 250 | 175.44 |
| 500 | 85.47 |
| 1,000 | 39.84 |
| 10,000 | 15.97 |
| 100,000 | 15.97 |
| 1,000,000 | 15.97 |
yes this can be calculated but that is another process so I simulated
Quote: TruthYellerWell today, after maybe 3 years of consistent play, I'm finally hanging up my dice and calling it quits. Reason is due to the fact I can no bear the stress of what seems like my "Destiny Not To Win." It's more so that the light has come on and I'm just taking heed. I've come to the realization that after doing all of the homework, following all of the strategies, perfecting "multiple types of ways to set dice" and hope for an expected outcome... it all comes to naught. I've seen it all over the past 3 years, and I am now a firm believer in that if you're winning at playing the game of Craps, then it's "meant" for you to win. This is why the whales are the whales... it's meant for them to win. Conversely, this is why everyone else, no matter how much $$$ they throw at the game, cannot & will not win... It's not meant for them to win. Period.
Now I know several people will read this and say I've said all of this, because I'm getting my backside handed to me; they'll say that if I was winning more often, I wouldn't have posted this. Well, I'm here to say that they would be incorrect. I've had my fair share of big wins, and big losses, and along the way I've just noticed certain things that have happened playing the game of craps. I've seen people with no money to be able to sustain the game or last, walk away huge winners.... while the guy with a rack of Orange and Purple chips is getting his ass handed to him, and is trying every trick in the book to pull out a win. They eventually end up walking with a huge loss. Yet another guy wins ALL THE TIME... no matter what he does, and people try to follow that person and end up losing their asses. After they get wiped out, the winning person goes to back to winning big again, and people are left dazed and confused.
I've seen people who every time they play, play something crazy like the "Hi/Low", or Straight 12, Straight 2.... and they win CONSTANTLY. I mean they win about 80% of the time... averaging anywhere from $7,000 to $26,000+... all off of those crazy, super long shot type of bets. The very fact they win so much is what enables them to keep making them, keeping them with a sufficient bankroll to play that way... and of course, they just keep winning. Same goes for people who may play the Yo/Ace Deuce, or even the Hard Ways. Some people, no matter what the game variance is "supposed to be," no what the odds are "supposed to be," simply win most or all of the time.
I was Dark Side bettor and made a good portion of $$$ for a little while, but there was one point some years back that when the losing began, no matter what I did, it just didn't stop. It continued and continued. If I tried to play it safe, then I broke even "every single time." However, whenever I stepped away from the game to assess what was happening... people didn't seemed to be winning consistently one way or the other... they WERE WINNING CONSISTENTLY... ONE WAY OR THE OTHER. I mean either the Pass Line folks were burning it up and winning fire bets on consistently... or the Don't Pass folks were stacking the Green, Black, and even Orange with no fear, and were winning. I've watched this on multiple occasions and have scratched my head many times, wondering what I was doing wrong.
Also, I'm a developer with enough $$$ to sustain a large bankroll at any given time, yet it would seem like that didn't matter. I would lose consistently, and if I did win... it was only the amount to break back even from what I previously lost in a session. I wondered if was just me and not being lucky... I was very weird. And on the days there good wins, these were followed by immediate strings of multiple losses... no matter what I did or tried. Through it all, I saw the same people at all of the casinos I've visited from the East to the West coast who were regulars... and the people who win kept on winning... and the others were consistent losers, no matter what they did or whether they had a bankroll which "should have allowed them to sustain losing, en route to a win."
Now I will say that those people who seem destined to win do, in fact, lose; they just lose "less often," thus their winning makes up for it. I've learned that NO SYSTEM really works... casinos put a ton of $$$ into engineering wins for the house at the game of Craps. That's why they invest heavily into equipment such as bouncier vs. stiffer table layouts, smaller vs. longer tables, and "lighter dice." If there were ever any rolling or shooting strategies of old which did work, those have been are nullified by those changes in the gaming equipment. I watched a friend of mine on a trip to Hollywood casino in Lawerenceburg, Indiana crush the Don'ts for about $103,000... $12,000 went to dealers for tips.... it was meant for him to win that $$$ and STOP PLAYING THE GAME ALTOGETHER. What happened? Over the course of just 7 months, every strategy he tried ended up in smoke, and casinos eventually won back the money. How do I know? Because I part took of that win.
I've spent about $15,000 losing on the Pass Line consistently for weeks at a time, all while Don't Bettors were making a killing. Whenever I switched, I burned even more $$$, and the streaks of losing were just impossible to avoid. I've maybe caught a hot table 4 times in 3 years, but it too, seemed to fizzle whenever I played or joined in. I've lost to random rollers, who in my opinion are better than the so-called precision shooters. I used to be one, and schools or people selling that need to really stop... it doesn't work... it's just method to make you not worry as much about losing. That's until the losses start to pile up, and you actually see that the so-called precision shooters are always around and making $$$ themselves. They make the $$$ selling the false hope. So likewise, I've more $$$ to the DI guys who are supposed to be the creme of the crop. I've proven other dice combos don't yield what it's said they would yield.
I once sat there and burned another $20,000 over the course of a solid month, playing the Don't Pass... only to suffer the endless stream of come out 7s and 11s... I've played solo, and the same thing would happen more often than not. Especially given the odd of rolling an 11... yet the come and hurt you on the Don't Pass. If you try to play the Horn, you can only buffer the loss so much. I've experienced all this, and after 3 years of close study and just watching the things I've seen happen, I conclude that some people are meant to win, get lucky, and win consistently. Other people, no matter how knowledgeable, no matter the bankroll, no matter the few wins, or the strategy they employ, even stepping back from the game... will continue to lose and will never understand why. However, I took a good look at what's going on, I've taken heed.
I've written this mostly, because I see so many people with all of this talk of strategy, and this and that. None of it works, for it did, lawyers, doctors, and other developers like me, who make a decent living doing what we do, could stop those activities and feed off the casinos. Notice the only true game of skill like Blackjack, will get you booted from the casino. Go figure. Hopefully this will help someone asking themselves questions. Maybe some of you are like me: you've done it all, and you watch people just win, win, and win... and you're losing more often than winning, and it just isn't adding up. Not that you have a gambling issue, but you're taking an honest look at the game, and you're noticing a pattern that just applies your situation specifically, when it comes to winning or losing.
End closing, I can say whenever I stay away from the game, I always did better. It really burns to see some people and see that they're fortunate enough to live off the game, but I guess it's the same as to why some in life generally have or find huge/moderate success in whatever they do, and others do not. Billionaires aren't the ones to win the Powerball consistently, and they have enough $$$ to last a lifetime... it's usually the people who have nothing and are just simply "destined to win." I've found the same thing applies to Craps, as I can't say for any other game, as I haven't made it something to venture into. That said, it's been fun, but no thanks. Programming and serving clients is my destiny... so I'll just stick with that ;)
1) The Law of Large Numbers. You claim to see people win 'consistently.' What is consistent? A few times over the course of a year you actually notice the same person winning? Do you understand how little this represents in their bankroll graph and their long run? Even if you watched someone EVERY DAY for an entire year, you still wouldn't have enough points on the chart to reliably see the long run. Over the course of years doesn't really mean anything. When you start getting in to DECADES with the same people, or same bankroll, then you might have an image at least. Unless someone's altering the game, EVERYONE loses in craps. How much? Well that depends on their average bet vs their average disadvantage. Point blank 1+1=2. "Destiny" doesn't change 1+1=3 for 'some' people.
2) You can't understand, or even appreciate a game unless you've experienced the most extreme highs, and lows. Now I'm not saying "oh I lost X dollars over the last year!" I'm talking about losing streaks that last for 5-6 months. I've had them happen to me. Kewlj has posted about them happening to him. Oh, and by the way, the game we were playing (while losing for nearly half a year straight) was a WINNING game that can be beat. It sounds like you really need to take a look at defining variance and standard deviations. Everything you've described, from your own bankroll, to what you've seen from 'others' seems to fit perfectly within the math of the game. Sure, it sucks to lose for months on end and it just feels like no matter what you do you're going to lose. Bet red, it comes black. Bet pass, 7 out. Bet the don't, point point point... This is nothing more than the law of large numbers rearing it's head. Every situation that can happen, will eventually happen, to someone, somewhere. Someone will see a 50 point roll. Someone somewhere will see a table not hit a point all night. DING! I did! My brother and I went to Vegas 2 years ago, played from the don't with 3 DC's, and between the 2 of us we didn't point 1 time in 8 HOURS. It was just us, and usually 1 or 2 others at the table, so we threw a LOT over that night. I was playing piddly stakes, because I know craps can't be beat, and I still won a couple grand. My point is, you will lose for months on end.
3) Your own statement above =p:
Quote: TruthYellerAgain, I respect everyone's opinion. But I know what I've experienced. I think that everyone gets so caught up in the game from their own perspective, that they tend to reflect these perspectives on others, who obviously will have a totally different experience....
Do you not feel this is exactly what you're doing? Think of it as life. Everyone's begins at the same point (birth) and ends at the same point (death). While everyone's adventures/experiences/etc will be different, 'most' of the time they'll be similar, 'some' of the time they will slightly differ, and 'few' times there will be the outliers. Now relate this to craps. Pretend everyone has a "lifetime" bankroll. Yours might jaggedly shoot up and down around your expected value, while someone else's might hover 'around' expected value... but in the end, with enough trails, you'll both end at the exact same place. This is why people can have different experiences with craps, but in the end as everyone else pointed out and I'll reiterate: no one wins. No one is 'destine' to win. No one is special or lucky. Just like life... Everyone, given enough time, will come to the same ending.
If you take out your losing sessions everyone's a winner. The guy that tells you he hit a $4000 royal? He made $800 during that session, and had 10 sessions before it lost $100-$1000.
Quote: mustangsallyok then
1st point is many will say that a computer simulation will never be the same as actual dice rolling on a real craps table.
I wonder if they are the majority here.
who IS 1 in a million?
so this could be done and if we limit to 2 hours of play on average now we are at 8.459*2 years to play over 1 million dice rolls
point is, in my opinion, 1 million dice rolls seen is in a long term.
and you say 345X odds on pass line (?) I get about 1 in 17 would be expected to NOT be a loser.
I get roughly (and I do mean roughly) the same result as you did given two conditions. First, not making stupid bets (sticking to the better ones) and second, I don't rely on simulations (I do use them as confirmatory though); I did it the right way (using lovely equations) -- I admit to having a fetish for getting to the exact right answer though.
No, you can't have my work. :) But the calculation: really, not all that hard (I have found craps a really simple game to analyze using basic probability and statistics; I feel certain that the experts in statistics and probability would agree -- much easier than, say, poker, where you have to rely a lot more on combinatorics).
But yeah, close enough (I actually got slightly worse than 1/17, but for the purposes of this discussion 1/19 vs. 1/17 doesn't matter in the slightest).
Those 1/17 or 1/19 or whatever, stand out. Does "destiny" favor them? Or should we consider them "mere" statistical outliers?
I go for calling them outliers.
But, you know, the way humans have evolved, most people will go for destiny every time. I understand that.
Now with finances tight, I tend to be really conservative, some variation of the $12 6&8 place bets. You won't win that way - you'll just get ground down - and you'll only be mildly entertained. I'm going to Vegas in a couple of weeks and I'm going to try another way.
I'm going to put $1100 inside and see if I can hit one number. If I do, I pull them down and wait for the next roll. If not - well, I don't want to think about 'if not.'
I think if you do something with a low house edge and get extremely lucky, you can be a lifetime winner. I see a lot of people basically betting to loose by putting thousands of dollars on the field and hundreds on the hard ways. You might get lucky occasionally, but over the long haul you will never win.
I stand by though that if you do 100x odds, you can be a lifetime winner if you are lucky
Quote: guitarmandpI saw a guy win $270,000 playing the don'ts. He had a $100 don't pass bet and 100X odds. The house advantage on a don't pass bet with 100x odds is 0.02%
I think if you do something with a low house edge and get extremely lucky, you can be a lifetime winner. I see a lot of people basically betting to loose by putting thousands of dollars on the field and hundreds on the hard ways. You might get lucky occasionally, but over the long haul you will never win.
I stand by though that if you do 100x odds, you can be a lifetime winner if you are lucky
How many joints have 100x odds, hey hey?
thank you for sharingQuote: guitarmandpI saw a guy win $270,000 playing the don'ts. He had a $100 don't pass bet and 100X odds. The house advantage on a don't pass bet with 100x odds is 0.02%
where you get 0.02%?
counting pushes because they exist, I gets
he = -3/22,220 = -0.013501%
not counting pushes for those that do not count
he = -27/199,925 = -0.013505%
with the odds, you do not have to get extremely luckyQuote: guitarmandpI think if you do something with a low house edge and get extremely lucky, you can be a lifetime winner.
just a few more wins (on average) is abouts all it takes
betting to loose heheQuote: guitarmandpI see a lot of people basically betting to loose by putting thousands of dollars on the field and hundreds on the hard ways. You might get lucky occasionally, but over the long haul you will never win.
never win
haha
long haul - what IS that?
the long run = forever and no one, even God, can play forever
long haul = ???
your opinion
thank you for that
so negative, btw, fyi, ok fine
are you a craps expert?
in my opinion, you sound like one
no luck involvedQuote: guitarmandpI stand by though that if you do 100x odds, you can be a lifetime winner if you are lucky
with just 345X odds a lifetime winner, there will be many lifeer winners
all comes down to how many bets you make and the average bet (hopefully normally distributed)
and how much are on the odds
hmmmm,
why you say it taaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaakes
extremely lucky
and
100x odds?
where did you learn this hogwash?
Mully
