'Don't Pass' question..
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I understand that the odds of hitting the 7 before the 6 or 8 is still in my favor, but when I do lay odds on the 6 or 8 it seems to kill my bank roll after awhile.
I play at a place with 6x odds. I tend to do best with a 'system' of laying 6x on the 10 and 4, 3x on the 5 and 9, and no odds on the 6 or 8.
this girl used to, then I became real smart and stopped playing the don't pass and my bankroll soared way upQuote: Dutch1976Do you guys lay odds when the point is 6 or 8?
now I just make Lay bets
yes, still
seems?Quote: Dutch1976I understand that the odds of hitting the 7 before the 6 or 8 is still in my favor, but when I do lay odds on the 6 or 8 it seems to kill my bank roll after awhile.
or does it actually kill your bankroll
killing is not nice, btw
I ask,
what bankroll and bets you play with (maybe you need more bankroll)
hands not in your pockets please!
oddQuote: Dutch1976I play at a place with 6x odds.
you mean 345X odds table
super duperQuote: Dutch1976I tend to do best with a 'system' of laying 6x on the 10 and 4, 3x on the 5 and 9, and no odds on the 6 or 8.
all craps *systems* are losers over a lifetime of play
now,
you think you tend to do best but have any stats to show you actually do?
do do do do
or
dont dont dont dont
in my opinion
the don't pass bet is a sucker bet
but that is OK
as I am a lifetime craps winner at age 24 (over $3 million, btw, already invested too)
enjoy your stay!
Sally says
Quote: Dutch1976I tend to do best with a 'system' of laying 6x on the 10 and 4, 3x on the 5 and 9, and no odds on the 6 or 8.
If that is what works best for you AND you enjoy it... keep doing it.
Remember, Right and Wrong players are only a smidgen apart in their math.
Remember too that a Wrong player needs a bigger bankroll because he is laying instead of taking odds, so if your bankroll is a shade to low to begin with you might better off on the Right side.
EACH roll that 7 is most likely to appear. So if the point is 6 or 8, its still possible to lay 6x against it. Sure you FEEL better laying the 4 or 10, but those bets can knocked off too.
Quote: mustangsallynice question
this girl used to, then I became real smart and stopped playing the don't pass and my bankroll soared way up
now I just make Lay bets
yes, still
seems?
or does it actually kill your bankroll
killing is not nice, btw
I ask,
what bankroll and bets you play with (maybe you need more bankroll)
hands not in your pockets please!
odd
you mean 345X odds table
super duper
all craps *systems* are losers over a lifetime of play
now,
you think you tend to do best but have any stats to show you actually do?
do do do do
or
dont dont dont dont
in my opinion
the don't pass bet is a sucker bet
but that is OK
as I am a lifetime craps winner at age 24 (over $3 million, btw, already invested too)
enjoy your stay!
Sally says
Don't listen to this person. There is no way to win at craps.
Sally, please explain to me how don't pass is a sucker bet? The don't pass carries a house edge of 1.4% while lay bets carry house edge of 2.5-4% depending on the point. So it seems you are the one who is making 'sucker bets'
sure there is. many ways.Quote: AvincowDon't listen to this person. There is no way to win at craps.
not the Frank S method system I do say
and one can win with plain old luck too
casinos want big action
and I gave it to them at the craps table
cashed big many times with pass/odds or dont pass/odds (sometime both!)
it also took a loss rebate to make this happen
yes, Sally IS smart (what IS IS?)
no, it is my opinion that it is a sucker betQuote: AvincowSally, please explain to me how don't pass is a sucker bet?
and it may be your opinion that it is not
so no one wins
but no one lost either
so I also say the pass line bet is a sucker bet
a Lay bet wins on every 7
sweetness, I says
it aint ALL about the house edge!Quote: AvincowThe don't pass carries a house edge of 1.4% while lay bets carry house edge of 2.5-4% depending on the point.
So it seems you are the one who is making 'sucker bets'
increase your winning percentages and you beat the house edge
it is that simple
but I can understand why many will never get it and just follow others around and around and around too
but that can be fun also
it is all about fun!
Sally
Quote: mustangsallynice question
this girl used to, then I became real smart and stopped playing the don't pass and my bankroll soared way up
now I just make Lay bets
yes, still
seems?
or does it actually kill your bankroll
killing is not nice, btw
I ask,
what bankroll and bets you play with (maybe you need more bankroll)
hands not in your pockets please!
odd
you mean 345X odds table
super duper
all craps *systems* are losers over a lifetime of play
now,
you think you tend to do best but have any stats to show you actually do?
do do do do
or
dont dont dont dont
in my opinion
the don't pass bet is a sucker bet
but that is OK
as I am a lifetime craps winner at age 24 (over $3 million, btw, already invested too)
enjoy your stay!
Sally says
Yaaaawn. Don't try so hard.
Quote: mustangsallyincrease your winning percentages and you beat the house edge
it is that simple
Lol no.
Martingale players win most of the time. They definitely increase their winning percentages.
But did they beat the house edge? The answer is NO. Eventually they will LOSE, and you will too. If you're ahead, now is a good time to call it good.
what is so funny? the answer is yesQuote: hitthat16Lol no.
thank you for sharing your opinion
well, I said nothing about a Marty approachQuote: hitthat16Martingale players win most of the time.
I mean, exactly increase your one trial winning probability
it is that simple and easy
but not on just one trialQuote: hitthat16They definitely increase their winning percentages.
any Marty adds fun and excitement to any form of gambling, I say
you do not like to have fun when you gamble?
too bad, my opinion, if that is true
and when exactly is this Eventually? and how much will they lose?Quote: hitthat16But did they beat the house edge?
The answer is NO. Eventually they will LOSE,
not at all. I know how to win at any casino game I play atQuote: hitthat16and you will too.
It takes a winner to be a winner (and gals are better than guys at this too)
most that gamble are just losers
all can not be winners
house edge is how the casino makes money from all players, not just one
yes I am ahead in real US moneyQuote: hitthat16If you're ahead, now is a good time to call it good.
But at times I do play with an advantage at Craps, not dice control, no-no
an actual advantage
I made a thread about it last year
but there are way better ways to make way more real money than gambling and have way more fun doing it.
ask Dr. Thorp
He is still alive and doing well in Newport Beach, Ca
Sally
YaaaawnQuote: Dutch1976Yaaaawn. Don't try so hard.
Ah, you like Ahigh, no answer any questions, no no
too good for all 6X odds player but so funny
thank you
have fun!
Sally
Quote: mustangsallywhat is so funny? the answer is yes
thank you for sharing your opinion
The answer is still no, and that's not an opinion. If you could beat the casinos by making lay bets at the craps table, then casinos wouldn't exist cause the "secret" would have been up decades ago.
Quote: mustangsallywell, I said nothing about a Marty approach
I mean, exactly increase your one trial winning probability
it is that simple and easy
Yes, you are twice as likely to win a lay 4 or 10 bet than lose it. But you get paid 1:2, and then the house takes a commission. The commision is where they grind you down.
Quote: mustangsallybut not on just one trial
any Marty adds fun and excitement to any form of gambling, I say
you do not like to have fun when you gamble?
too bad, my opinion, if that is true
Oh goodness no. Of course I like having fun at the tables, but betting potentially hundreds or thousands of dollars in order to win a $5 bill is not my idea of fun. (That one is an opinion.)
Quote: mustangsallyand when exactly is this Eventually?
Depends on how long you spend at the tables.
Quote: mustangsallyand how much will they lose?
House edge * money bet * number of trials.
Quote: mustangsallynot at all. I know how to win at any casino game I play at
It takes a winner to be a winner (and gals are better than guys at this too)
most that gamble are just losers
all can not be winners
Don't think you're the exception to the rule.
Quote: mustangsallyhouse edge is how the casino makes money from all players, not just one
yes I am ahead in real US money
But at times I do play with an advantage at Craps, not dice control, no-no
an actual advantage
I made a thread about it last year
House edge also best predicts an individual players eventual result. I've also played craps with an advantage, but the money didn't come from the house.
Quote: mustangsallybut there are way better ways to make way more real money than gambling and have way more fun doing it.
ask Dr. Thorp
He is still alive and doing well in Newport Beach, Ca
Sally
Sweet. That's where I live. I'll stop by and say hi!
Any game can be beaten with a rebate (well perhaps there is some esoteric game that is SO BAD it cannot beat a rebate).
As for the actual OP: Bet however you want to bet, to have fun, assuming you're not playing at a disadvantage (99% of players).
I haven't played craps (for fun) in a while, and don't intend to. But when I did, I'd play on the PL and DP. Really just played either out of feel, or neither. But I'd just about always lay odds against the point if I was on the DP. What I like about the DP is once the point is set, you are more likely to win, even if the point is 6 or 8.
If your bankroll isn't big enough or you don't feel comfortable laying odds, don't lay odds. But nothing better than setting up a bunch of DCs with odds and hearing that fantastic "7 OUT line down" call from the stickman.
Whatever you do, always take action. Never do the "no action" even against 6 or 8.
If you are the type to take "no action" and you're in LV (and you bet enough), send me a PM and we could work something out. :)
If only that were true.Quote: RS
Any game can be beaten with a rebate
Quote: mustangsally
increase your winning percentages and you beat the house edge
it is that simple
but I can understand why many will never get it and just follow others around and around and around too
Well, with all due respect, a tautology like the above doesn't tell me a damned thing. You might as well write, "Increase the amount you win compared to the amount you lose and you beat the house edge." Or, because you like math, you might as well write "1 = 1."
Would you mind explaining? Using plain English without tautologies, if you don't mind: I don't consider myself all that bright, so explaining things for a dummy like me would definitely help. Thanks in advance!
Quote: AvincowYou are playing a negative expectation game, so yes, the more you bet the higher risk of killing the bankroll
That's not actually true when it comes to craps and odds... Odds bets are truly even money bets. When you put enough odds on your pass/don't pass bet it dampens the house edge on your original bets. Because the majority of your bet has no house edge, it makes your original line wager affect your long run outcome less. So say you take 100x odds on a don't pass bet. You can actually get the house edge down from something like 1.36% to .16%. It's been noted by many mathematicians and in craps books that with 100x odds I want to say I recall seeing you can get it down to about .08%.
It should also be noted that this is an asymptotic at 0. The more odds you play the closer you get to 0, but you will never actually get a house edge of 0. Although something like .00008% could be considered close enough by some =p.
"increase your winning percentages and you beat the house edge"Quote: ConcinnityWould you mind explaining? Using plain English without tautologies, if you don't mind: I don't consider myself all that bright, so explaining things for a dummy like me would definitely help. Thanks in advance!
house edge calculation for a $40 Lay bet on the 4 with $1 vig paid up front
(2/3) * 19 + (1/3) * -41 = -1/41 or about -2.439%
(2/3) = the probability from the dice to win (6 ways to win and only 3 ways to lose)
now replace 2/3 with 7/10 and you should get 1/41
of course this does not come from the dice
my current lifetime winning probability on the lay 4 and 10 sits at 72& for a house edge at 2.2/41
I just know when the shooter will roll a 7 before a 4 or 10 better than the average bear, that is.
I have mentioned a few ways to get this done in past posts
ask odiousgambit if you want to find out more
Lay bets rule because they win on any 7
in every casino in the world
even on crapless craps where the don't pass bet can not be made
Sally
Can I assume safely that this example is enhanced at least partially do to the rules in your state?Quote: mustangsallyI just know when the shooter will roll a 7 before a 4 or 10 better than the average bear, that is.
TIA, nice shoes
you could be safeQuote: petroglyphCan I assume safely that this example is enhanced at least partially do to the rules in your state?
you mean card craps in CA dealt from a shoe
it also works in any casino with fair dice but one has to know the secret to success
and I never kiss and tell
I only kiss
Sally
what again?Quote: RomesThat's not actually true when it comes to craps and odds... Odds bets are truly even money bets.
even money bets
I would think a fair bet
what again?Quote: RomesWhen you put enough odds on your pass/don't pass bet it dampens the house edge on your original bets.
enough?
how about just something?
and it only dampens?
I say the combined house edge goes lower but most (over 99.99%) do not know the average bet that is applied to
Oh, you mean the combined betQuote: RomesBecause the majority of your bet has no house edge,
I see now better
Alan Shank does not like combined house edge, he has said before
to me the EV is what this gambling is about
still don't pass...
beware of laying the odds
Sally
"It should also be noted that this is an asymptotic at 0. The more odds you play the closer you get to 0, but you will never actually get a house edge of 0. Although something like .00008% could be considered close enough by some =p."
All other things being equal (not counting loss rebates, etc, etc... Just the math of the game itself): The best EV bet in the house for craps (the one that loses the least, in the long run) is a min pass/don't pass bet, with max odds.
Yes, I wondered if it was feasible to improve a players expected outcome by a possibility of being able to "count the cards remaining" in the shoe. I once played with an old guy [over 50] who claimed he always won when he played in Cali, due to knowing which numbers remained in the deck?Quote: mustangsallyyou mean card craps in CA dealt from a shoe
Sounds great, :) Remember I'm like a 102 or something. Make sure there is a defib unit around first, will ya?Quote:I only kiss
Quote: RomesThat's not actually true when it comes to craps and odds... Odds bets are truly even money bets. When you put enough odds on your pass/don't pass bet it dampens the house edge on your original bets. Because the majority of your bet has no house edge, it makes your original line wager affect your long run outcome less. So say you take 100x odds on a don't pass bet. You can actually get the house edge down from something like 1.36% to .16%. It's been noted by many mathematicians and in craps books that with 100x odds I want to say I recall seeing you can get it down to about .08%.
It should also be noted that this is an asymptotic at 0. The more odds you play the closer you get to 0, but you will never actually get a house edge of 0. Although something like .00008% could be considered close enough by someneit
Odds increases the variance. Even though it's a true-odds bet, you still increase the risk of killing your bankroll. Let's say you have a $10k bankroll. If you bet $1 on an even money coin flip (0 house edge), you have a very little chance of killing your BR. If you bet all $10k, you have a huge risk of killing your bankroll, especially if you continue to place that bet.
The same is true with odds bet in craps....even if you were able to only play odds without a PL or DP bet.
Odds on PL or DP don't decrease the HE. It's just a different bet. You still have the 1.41% HE on the line, and 0% HE on odds. That's all it is.
To actually decrease the HE, you'd have to either pull your PL (or part of it) after a point is established, or increase your DP flat bet. But you can do neither. This isn't to say you can't do other things to decrease the HE. Theoretically, IF you could control/influence the dice, that'd also change the HE. (Not that I believe in DI.) Taking shots or cheating (I guess that's covered by decreasing PL or increasing DP) would also decrease the HE....neither of which I condone.
I say you increase the chance of hitting any target win goal the more money bet on the odds andQuote: RSOdds increases the variance. Even though it's a true-odds bet, you still increase the risk of killing your bankroll.
It really depends on the size of the bankroll and the size of the bets made.
yes I do have one of those.Quote: RSLet's say you have a $10k bankroll.
not a good example in my opinion.Quote: RSIf you bet $1 on an even money coin flip (0 house edge), you have a very little chance of killing your BR. If you bet all $10k, you have a huge risk of killing your bankroll, especially if you continue to place that bet.
and has nothing to do with odds
and
the probability of doubling a $10k bankroll (or any bankroll size) = 50% for both methods, timid or bold.
10,000 / 20,000
I no agree, in other words,Quote: RSThe same is true with odds bet in craps....even if you were able to only play odds without a PL or DP bet.
I disagree with you,
it still comes down to bankroll and bet size.
an example is in order but so is an early dinner and dancing date
I am so lucky!
not really
I am just a winner
Sally
added:
this would be a good place to tie in the op system of play
his odds system
vs
just full odds (6X is what was said)
and who would double a bankroll with a higher probability
this will be fun I say
later!
Quote: rudeboyoiDiscountgambling.net guy has the strategy for card craps.
None of the cards craps systems I have seen up here in NorCal are vulnerable like that. I don't understand why a casino would offer such a game, unless maybe to attract people who think they can profit from the slightly altered odds, can't, but still over-bet.
The simplest method I have seen is to just have six cards, ace through six, face down in numbered slots, and the shooter rolls regular dice that "point" to the numbers slots. They turn the "pointed-to" cards over, and that is the result. If both dice point to the same slot, it's a double. After each decision, they shuffle the cards around, so any "DI" would not know which number holds which card.
Some casinos use two sets of cards in two sets of slots of different colors and dice of those colors.
At my local casino, they use two decks of 36 cards, one being shuffled while the other is in use, so there's always full replacement and no change in probabilities. However, this is slow and requires extra equipment.
Also, yes, as Sally says, I think ev is more meaningful than a combined HE. The ev on pass is always -1.41% of the bet; the ev on the odds is always zero. You don't change the ev by taking or laying odds. You only change the ev by betting less on the line (and, presumably, more on the odds).
Quote: RSOdds increases the variance. Even though it's a true-odds bet, you still increase the risk of killing your bankroll. Let's say you have a $10k bankroll. If you bet $1 on an even money coin flip (0 house edge), you have a very little chance of killing your BR. If you bet all $10k, you have a huge risk of killing your bankroll, especially if you continue to place that bet.
The same is true with odds bet in craps....even if you were able to only play odds without a PL or DP bet.
Odds on PL or DP don't decrease the HE. It's just a different bet. You still have the 1.41% HE on the line, and 0% HE on odds. That's all it is.
To actually decrease the HE, you'd have to either pull your PL (or part of it) after a point is established, or increase your DP flat bet. But you can do neither. This isn't to say you can't do other things to decrease the HE. Theoretically, IF you could control/influence the dice, that'd also change the HE. (Not that I believe in DI.) Taking shots or cheating (I guess that's covered by decreasing PL or increasing DP) would also decrease the HE....neither of which I condone.
Eh, we're kind of saying the same thing and splitting hairs... Technically if you want to know the EV of any given roll, it's an additive summation of the EV's of all of your bets. Hence while you're correct the original pass line bet stays at 1.41% HE, the overall House Edge against all of your money on the table can be greatly reduced by overshadowing your PL bet with odds... again bringing the 'overall' House Edge down to near .08% in some cases. Thus, while you're not incorrect about the PL bet, I'm not incorrect in saying "I can play craps with a House Edge of .08%."
I agree that if you have a $10k bankroll and stuff $10k on the odds you're going to up your variance. I suppose I could have specified (I assumed) that one would still be playing the odds within a bankroll... $10 PL, $100 odds, but a few K bankroll to take a couple losses for example. Given the ambiguity I guess I left the door open for you to say "increase odds increase variance" but if you play with a bankroll in proportion to your odds bets you can absolutely still play a .08% HE craps game without 'jumping' your variance to the point where you'll undoubtedly go broke. With the right bankroll variance won't ever bust you, time and the minimal house edge will =P.
Quote: mustangsally"increase your winning percentages and you beat the house edge"
house edge calculation for a $40 Lay bet on the 4 with $1 vig paid up front
(2/3) * 19 + (1/3) * -41 = -1/41 or about -2.439%
(2/3) = the probability from the dice to win (6 ways to win and only 3 ways to lose)
now replace 2/3 with 7/10 and you should get 1/41
of course this does not come from the dice
my current lifetime winning probability on the lay 4 and 10 sits at 72& for a house edge at 2.2/41
I just know when the shooter will roll a 7 before a 4 or 10 better than the average bear, that is.
I have mentioned a few ways to get this done in past posts
ask odiousgambit if you want to find out more
Lay bets rule because they win on any 7
in every casino in the world
even on crapless craps where the don't pass bet can not be made
Sally
Yawn.
Now, replace "yawn" with "you have my rapt attention" and you should get the attention from me that your post deserves.
Which, equivalently, you can do at Sta. Ana Star Casino in Bernalillo, NM. Ther is no house percentage whatever on their 'free buy and lay 4 and 10 bets and on their field bet.
Quote: APEppinkI can't see where 'bankroll' has any meaning at all in the context in which it's used in craps discussions. Bankroll in a gambling environment is the entire amount of money put at risk over one's entire lifetime, from his first game thru to his last, likely a period of many decades. While practically it's obviously true that 'bankrolls' must be replenished during periods of net loss (the probable outcome of a lifetime of crapshooting), in theory the bankroll is continuous as the intervening non gambling periods have no mathematical meaning. Whether one waits a few seconds between trials in a hot game or experiences years between games is mathematically irrelevant. It's mathematically one lifetime craps game punctuated by idle intervals of hugely varying lengths, having no mathematical significance.
I can explain the meaning of "bankroll" as far as most casual gamblers are concerned - and I'm confident it's safe to say most gamblers are casual gamblers. I know I am.
Hypothetical scenario:
Casual Gambler takes a 3-day trip to Vegas with a $3000 (or $300, or $30K) gambling budget.
To limit losses and maximize enjoyment of the trip, they limit themselves to 1/3 of their budget per day.
In their mind, their bankroll for the trip is $3K and their bankroll for the day is $1K.
Let's say they plop down at a roulette wheel and buy in for $200. They play table minimum on the inside. The win a few, the lose a few, they walk away with zero.
For that session they had a $200 bankroll and the lost it all.
After lunch, they saunter up to a busy craps table and buy in for $300. They play a conservative Pass + Max Odds with an occasional Fire Bet. They win a bit and walk away with $500.
For the day, they're at $0 - the $200 they lost at roulette has been won at craps.
After dinner they buy in to a $20 BJ table for the whole nut - $1K - and sit there all night. Whether or not they win or lose, they've stuck to their budget for the day and had a good time.
Tomorrow is another day.
---
People don't think of personal income or grocery expenses in terms of their entire lives, why should they think of gambling that way?
