Debating based on previous trips to the casino

Quote: jml24

Also the larger lay bets require a bigger bankroll.

This is somewhat of a misconception. Although the don't player has to lay the long end of the odds, this is balanced by the fact that these bets have a positive won-loss expectation. Because of that, it more unlikely that you will lose several points in a row on the dark side than the right side. Yes, there's a slight chance that you could get hammered early by losing several points in a row, but you're much more likely to lose several points in a row on the right side.

Also, someone mentioned that you're less likely to have losing streaks on the right side; since the probability of winning a DP bet is almost exactly the same as for a passline bet, there's no reason to expect that.

As I mentioned in another post (maybe on the other forum, 69 tomorrow and I can't remember), the opposite skews of rightside and darkside odds bets get diluted quickly after a few bets.
Cheers,
Alan Shank

Quote: uwf9990

Sally, I'm actually doing all of these trials to try and "disprove" the strategy. because obviously I don't think it will work all the time. There has to be some sort of flaw in it, as I am not a genius, and I'm sure someone else has thought of this before me.

I'm just curious as to what would make it not work.

because you only say you play for fun
it then should not even matter how you play because playing craps is fun.

you say nothing about how much you start playing with and how long to play and how many bets to make or how much winnings will cause you to stop playing
all this can be simulated and is very easy to do, in my opinion

what chance do you think you have turning $200 into $1000 with your system?

==================================================
I looked into my data and see with $200 bankroll, $5 flat bets and only 1X lay odds ($10 pt 4,10; $9 pt 5,9; $6 pt 6 or 8)
the chance is about 1 in 8

so nothing at all spectacular against it happening
(the total $$$ lost between all 20,000 that tried was over $1.3 million)

of course time is also a factor and not once did it happen before 378 rolls and you did it in one hour,

sounds to me the on-line game you played may not be perfectly fair in free play mode
but no surprise there

I only had 20,000 others playing this system trying to hit $1000 and stopping
here are some pics and some of those that watched










have fun winning or losing
I always do
see you in Vegas this weekend!
Sally

Hey sally, what would happen if you changed it to 2x odds? Did it make the players lose more or less? This could be a good bit of info to have.

And I think if I start with a $200 bankroll. My goal would be to get to $600 and then stop and go play something else.

Quote: uwf9990

Hey sally, what would happen if you changed it to 2x odds? Did it make the players lose more or less?

what do you think would happen and why?
I have an answer

Quote: uwf9990

This could be a good bit of info to have.

yes, people collect almost anything these days

Quote: uwf9990

And I think if I start with a $200 bankroll. My goal would be to get to $600 and then stop and go play something else.

sounds fun
well, I have simulation data for turning $200 into $400 with 1x and 2x lay odds with dpass and dcome every roll
and
$200 into $600 with 1x and 2x lay odds with dpass and dcome every roll

and
just making one dpass bet (both calculated and simulation data)
with 1x and 2x lay odds on every come out roll too
(2x lay odds are these: $20 to win $10 for the 4 and 10; $15 to win $10 for the 5 and 9; $12 to win $10 for the 6 and 8)

The things I collect
just ask my hubby

time to travel to Las Vegas for now
Sally

Quote: mustangsally

haha
wait until you play more times,
oh and not on a free-play online casino unless you can see all the code that runs that game

Seeing all the code might not help either. :)

See "Reflections on Trusting Trust" by Ken Thompson, the co-inventor of the UNIX operating system, who described how he put a backdoor into UNIXt which code inspection would not find.

https://www.ece.cmu.edu/~ganger/712.fall02/papers/p761-thompson.pdf

Not for the fainthearted.

Quote: mustangsally

what do you think would happen and why?
I have an answer

My guess is that it would make the swings bigger. If you were able to get a decent amount of points on the board and have them not get picked off, and then have a 7, you'd be able to make a lot of money at once.

When you place 2x odds compared to 1x odds-

When they roll a point, you'd lose 1.5 times as much every time that it happens. But for every point that you have left standing when they roll a 7, you'd get 1.4 times as much.

So on paper in the long run, it might be better to take the 1x odds. But in the short term, it may be better to take the 2x odds and hope that it goes your way.

Thanks for running the simulations and everything. I'm finding all of this to be very interesting.

Another thing that i noticed... Is that when i was doing these trial runs on a computer based casino instead of in person... You don't have to go 1x odds or 2x odds etc. You can just pick how much you want to bet.

I was putting $5 on dont pass and then $10 on odds. and then $5 on dont come and $10 on odds.


You're supposed to put down

12 to win 10 on 6/8
15 to win 10 on 5/9
20 to win 10 on 4/10

I'm putting down

10 to win 8.33 on 6/8
10 to win 6.66 on 5/9
10 to win 5.00 on 4/10

I think this would change the simulation as well.

Quote: uwf9990

Another thing that i noticed... Is that when i was doing these trial runs on a computer based casino instead of in person... You don't have to go 1x odds or 2x odds etc. You can just pick how much you want to bet.

I was putting $5 on dont pass and then $10 on odds. and then $5 on dont come and $10 on odds.


You're supposed to put down

12 to win 10 on 6/8
15 to win 10 on 5/9
20 to win 10 on 4/10

I'm putting down

10 to win 8.33 on 6/8
10 to win 6.66 on 5/9
10 to win 5.00 on 4/10

I think this would change the simulation as well.

If the program pays in pennies, it wouldn't matter; in a casino, you would get only $8 and $6 and you would be cheating yourself, although the dealer would probably prompt you for the correct amounts.
Cheers,
Alan Shank

Alan, There's a computerized machine at Harrah's in Mississippi. I'm pretty sure it will allow you to place these types of bets.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yPNES5DHcos

Here's a video of a random guy playing on that type of machine. They're a lot of fun.

Quote: uwf9990

Alan, There's a computerized machine at Harrah's in Mississippi. I'm pretty sure it will allow you to place these types of bets.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yPNES5DHcos

Here's a video of a random guy playing on that type of machine. They're a lot of fun.

But, does it pay off in fractions of a dollar? If not, you are cheating yourself, because you're not getting the correct payouts.
Cheers,
Alan Shank

I'll have to check on that when I get there on Sunday. I'll let you know!

Quote: goatcabin

But, does it pay off in fractions of a dollar? If not, you are cheating yourself, because you're not getting the correct payouts.
Cheers,
Alan Shank

Alan,

What are(were) you doing on here on your birthday? Hope it was a good one!

Quote: beachbumbabs

Alan,

What are(were) you doing on here on your birthday? Hope it was a good one!

I am sick, so I didn't go anywhere or do anything on my birthday except eat, read, nap and sit at this computer. I did, however, get several phone calls and birthday wishes on Facebook.

Who are you, beachbumbabs? Do I "know" you from Usenet or s.t.?
Thanks for the inquiry, anyway.
Cheers,
Alan Shank

Happy Birthday Alan!

Quote: uwf9990

I'll have to check on that when I get there on Sunday. I'll let you know!

OK
I had some time to setup a new laptop (little dell i7) for some video work I be starting on
Nothing Xrated but I still get those requests

ok

here is a simple version of your bets using the 35,097 Zumma actual dice rolls collection
the loss rate is abouts the same using computer generated dice rolls too

this is using WinCraps Classic

no sound as I do not have that setup either (I am in Vegas)

auto betting is nice as is the hyper-drive
this program does have some sound files in it
hehe, some are funny too

the frame rate recorded is only 10/sec using a free screen capture program (the paid goes to 60)
so it is not that great quality, yet

Have fun with it, I did
can view a larger size at YouTube


now dinner and dancing and drinking and lots of sex and football this weekend in Vegas!

Sally says "Go Angels!"
yes!

Good news. The Biloxi trip has been moved up to tomorrow! (Friday). So I'll let you all know how I do.

Quote: mustangsally

OK

now dinner and dancing and drinking and lots of sex and football this weekend in Vegas!
Sally says "Go Angels!"
yes!

What? No craps?
Alan says, "Go, A's!!"

Quote: uwf9990

Good news. The Biloxi trip has been moved up to tomorrow! (Friday). So I'll let you all know how I do.

Wow I've missed a lot in this thread since I posted in it originally =p.

uwf... What you're doing... Playing the DP, then DC's non stop, isn't a new thought. As I stated in my other post the Wizard has a video where he says that's the best way to play craps (though with more odds).

Let me explain a little something about "odds." They are "fair" bets, meaning 50% chance of winning and losing (no house edge). The way they affect your line (or DC) bet is they dilute the action. Thus, the more odds you take, the more you dilute the house edge. If possible, take bigger odds, with smaller line bets... With enough odds (I want to say something like 3x4x5 at least) you can get the House Edge down to about .08%. If you're just taking 2x odds, then you might slim it down from 1.36% to something like 1%.

Lastly, what you're describing is primarily the way I play =). And I can tell you from experience, when a "hot" shooter comes around, then can decimate you in one roll. Imagine getting all the numbers covered one after another... Then imagine the shooter re-rolls all those numbers again. You lose everything and still have money up, what if he keeps rolling??? One thing you might want to look up is some basic stats on craps. Like how the average roll is 8.5. If you think about that, there's bound to be repeat numbers in there, which will be "picking off" your DC bets. Another thing to remember is there's times when neither side wins... Say you bet $5, and a 6 is rolled... you lay odds, bet $5 on DC... then the 7 comes next throw. You "push" essentially your line bet, and just win your odds (because you lose the DC). This cuts down on your win, and when you play like I do (where you keep playing DC until a 7 is rolled), you're guaranteeing that eventually you're going to lose that DC bet. Check out that and other FAQ's on the Wizards Craps Probability page: http://www.wizardofodds.com/ask-the-wizard/craps/probability/

This is why sometimes I switch it up and only do like 3 DC's... So I can try to win the "full" amount and not lose the DC come out on the 7.

Overall, have fun! It's a system where you'll win more often, but when you lose you'll lose big... Keep that in mind. Neither way is particularly "better" than the other, but since there's 2 options you just need to find the one that you have the most fun doing. If a shooter is really hot, I might switch to pass and bet them. Just note that there is NO system and NO bet on the craps table that will consistently "win" over the long run. Every throw is independent (including your example of "well let's look out of 5 rolls in a row"). That's statistical white noise to the long run, and while you can run the probabilities of 6 coming five times in a row, it means nothing considering your sampling size... and it most definitely will still happen to you one day =P.

Win some money and report back! Good luck!

Quote: Romes

Let me explain a little something about "odds." They are "fair" bets, meaning 50% chance of winning and losing (no house edge).

I believe "fair" indicates a payout equal to the mathematical probability for a specific point #.
The 1:1 payout on line bets (and DC) is where the "unfair" part comes from.

So the trip was a bust. 3 people made both the all tall and all small within 1 hour... It was absolutely ridiculous. They had me believing in dice setting for sure! Haha. But it was still a great trip!

UWF - did you stick to your betting strategy (DP line and multiple DC bets with odds)? Would be curious to get more details about what happened.

As for my two cents - I plan on playing a 2-3 DC bet strategy when I'm in Vegas (in March). If 2 of my numbers get knocked off (or my DC bet does not travel due to a DC come out roll of 7 or 11), I will stop placing DC bets to avoid the rare but ever lurking "monster roll". Sure, I may not be making any bets for 10-15 minutes (or longer), but it is a way to potentially limit the damage while playing the Dark side.

By playing only DC's (not DPL) and limiting my losses per shooter to 2 units, I can accomplish two things (1. I can avoid SOME dirty looks from the right side players since I'm technically never betting against the established point number. The ideal situation is when my DC bets are behind 2-3 numbers and the right-side shooter rolls their point number. Now we can all cheer for a 7 because the right-side players will get paid on the come-out winner, and my DC bets will win! The second thing I accomplish - I avoid losing to multiple 7'a/11's in a row by not playing DPL).

I'll provide a trip report to give everyone the details of how it went, but that is my strategy! Like a lot of other players, I may switch to the right side while shooting (PL bet with some hardway bets) but we'll see how it goes!

I was playing the DP and DC and betting 2x odds each time. And yeah, it was killed by multiple people rolling every number possible.... over and over before a 7. It was ridiculous.

I don't know if this has relevance, but I think so.

The various strategies I've read in this thread remind me of something I read on a dice influencing forum by an infamous writer/instructor on that subject (no, I do not believe in it). The "5 count" which I will not detail and hope no one bothers to explain.

The "5 count" method has one quite interesting psychological effect, near as I can tell: it slows down the pace of betting for the player.

Now, I hate to sound cynical here, and I don't want to discuss the merits of dice influencing, etc. (I know: against the rules and did I mention: I don't believe in it? and if you do: good luck to you -- or "good skill" to you I suppose). But a naive player with a fixed bankroll who adopts a strategy that significantly slows down his betting might very well think that such strategies have more value (in terms of expected value per roll) than some other strategy.

Oddly enough, depending on how the player values his time at the tables, it *might* have more value. But then, an optimum strategy for such a player would consist of something like, "Wait until n rolls have happened and then make your bet. Keep doing this until you reach an exit condition (e.g., exhaust your bankroll, spend enough time at the table, win enough, convince that hot cocktail waitress to come back to your room after her shift ends)." Choose the largest value of n you can choose, of course (optimally: you show up to the table with your bankroll and never bet -- at least, we can use that as one boundary condition -- but I have noticed that most people don't view craps as a spectator sport).

I have no problem with slowing down the pace of betting. Whatever floats your boat and it probably makes a lot of sense for some people. But that doesn't mean you win more than otherwise even though losing less over the same amount of time might *feel* like improvement (and, I suppose, does indicate improvement for certain people).

Really, considering that the dice have no memory: it doesn't matter in terms of win/loss per resolved bet if you wait. It does matter in terms of how long you actually spend at the table. Which, given the betting methods I see here, often translates as "I'll probably lose more slowly." And I have no problem with that. But I wonder if people realize it?