Craps AP play
Poll
 | 9 votes (40.9%) | ||
| | 13 votes (59.09%) |
22 members have voted
October 12th, 2014 at 7:58:57 PM
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I thought to make my 11th and final thread at WoV about a neat little Craps AP play I used this last year in many casinos
It belongs under the heading of a loss rebate
but is nothing at all like a normal loss rebate is now, and to me that is why I was successful using it - and luck too, imo
It requires less money, many times only a one time loss rebate during a session of play.
=============================
The session is "double or nothing"
double the buy-in or have fun busting out trying
=============================
It is fun, imo, and variations (there are a few I used depending on the casino allowances)
can really gain a nice advantage over the casino and they really do not think you can do that
Here is the play.
works for pass line and don't pass with 345x odds (or higher odds, not lower odds)
my example here is the pass line with 345x odds
(I used the don't pass method almost all the time)
let us say your buy-in is 20 units
a unit can be any value but we keep it there for now
the goal is to hit 40 units exactly, never go over!, before complete session bankroll ruin
first, just playing this way of "double or nothing" has a chance of success that depends if you go over the target of 40 units
most play and go past the target
I show by simulation the chance of success (with other data)
Avg. No. games played . = 21.51
Avg. No. games won . . = 10.60
Avg. No. games lost . . = 10.91
Avg. No. dice rolls . . = 72.62
Avg. Total amount bet . = 21.51
Avg. amount bet on Odds = 50.65
Bankroll was busted . . = 53.367% of the time ( 5336715)
Win goal was met . . . = 46.633% of the time ( 4663285)
and by calculation in Excel
0.466564401 or
46.656%
sweet
of course we can adjust our final bet to hit 40 units exactly and that calculated = 0.492168218
nice difference.
we get this by betting exactly what is needed to hit the target exactly if using odds would take us over the target
on any point win our bankroll will grow by 7 units, so if we are at 33 units or less, we bet 1 unit on the come out roll and take the odds
having 34 units or more we bet for example 6 units with a 34 unit bankroll trying to hit the 40 unit target
ok
we know we need to have a probability of over 50% to have an edge over the casino
of winning 20 units or losing 20 units exactly
now the betting
bankroll 5 units or less: go all-in. bet what you have. no tipping
bankroll 6 units to 33 units: bet 1 unit on the come out roll and always take max odds (345x)
bankroll 34 units or more: bet only, on the come out roll, the number of units needed to hit exactly 40 units
It should be obvious if your unit is say $10
and you have $390 total, you bet $10 on the come out roll and no odds at all
=====================================================
now you must keep all your chips in the rail in front of you, no tipping with this money
the casino would have agreed to this playing condition to get this far (and most do, even with guys asking)
when all-in for 3 units and you lose, you get 1 unit back and must play it on the next come out roll (all-in again)
when all-in for 4 or 5 units (because any bankroll less than 6 will be an all-in bet)
and you lose, you get 2 units back
and must play it on the next come out roll (all-in again)
If you get back to 4 units from 2 (your loss rebate) and lose again, you are done
this is a 1 time session loss rebate
your (the) advantage comes from getting that 1 or 2 units to go all-in again and build it up to 40 units
or... do you really believe this?
1 or 2 units into 40 gives a player advantage?
hahaha
huh?
trick or treat??
==================================================
btw, most times you will not even use the loss rebate
the first time I tried this
the boxman laughed after 7 sessions I played because I never once used my "get-out-of-jail" card one time
and he said I did not have an advantage over his casino playing this way and
I might win 40 units from 1 or 2
1 in 100 times or so
I said thank you as I cashed out my $1000 win (my unit was $50 and I was 4 wins and 3 lost)
have fun with this
and dream of being special!
see you at the craps table
(remember, my shoes)
Sally
It belongs under the heading of a loss rebate
but is nothing at all like a normal loss rebate is now, and to me that is why I was successful using it - and luck too, imo
It requires less money, many times only a one time loss rebate during a session of play.
=============================
The session is "double or nothing"
double the buy-in or have fun busting out trying
=============================
It is fun, imo, and variations (there are a few I used depending on the casino allowances)
can really gain a nice advantage over the casino and they really do not think you can do that
Here is the play.
works for pass line and don't pass with 345x odds (or higher odds, not lower odds)
my example here is the pass line with 345x odds
(I used the don't pass method almost all the time)
let us say your buy-in is 20 units
a unit can be any value but we keep it there for now
the goal is to hit 40 units exactly, never go over!, before complete session bankroll ruin
first, just playing this way of "double or nothing" has a chance of success that depends if you go over the target of 40 units
most play and go past the target
I show by simulation the chance of success (with other data)
Avg. No. games played . = 21.51
Avg. No. games won . . = 10.60
Avg. No. games lost . . = 10.91
Avg. No. dice rolls . . = 72.62
Avg. Total amount bet . = 21.51
Avg. amount bet on Odds = 50.65
Bankroll was busted . . = 53.367% of the time ( 5336715)
Win goal was met . . . = 46.633% of the time ( 4663285)
and by calculation in Excel
0.466564401 or
46.656%
sweet
of course we can adjust our final bet to hit 40 units exactly and that calculated = 0.492168218
nice difference.
we get this by betting exactly what is needed to hit the target exactly if using odds would take us over the target
on any point win our bankroll will grow by 7 units, so if we are at 33 units or less, we bet 1 unit on the come out roll and take the odds
having 34 units or more we bet for example 6 units with a 34 unit bankroll trying to hit the 40 unit target
ok
we know we need to have a probability of over 50% to have an edge over the casino
of winning 20 units or losing 20 units exactly
now the betting
bankroll 5 units or less: go all-in. bet what you have. no tipping
bankroll 6 units to 33 units: bet 1 unit on the come out roll and always take max odds (345x)
bankroll 34 units or more: bet only, on the come out roll, the number of units needed to hit exactly 40 units
It should be obvious if your unit is say $10
and you have $390 total, you bet $10 on the come out roll and no odds at all
=====================================================
now you must keep all your chips in the rail in front of you, no tipping with this money
the casino would have agreed to this playing condition to get this far (and most do, even with guys asking)
when all-in for 3 units and you lose, you get 1 unit back and must play it on the next come out roll (all-in again)
when all-in for 4 or 5 units (because any bankroll less than 6 will be an all-in bet)
and you lose, you get 2 units back
and must play it on the next come out roll (all-in again)
If you get back to 4 units from 2 (your loss rebate) and lose again, you are done
this is a 1 time session loss rebate
your (the) advantage comes from getting that 1 or 2 units to go all-in again and build it up to 40 units
or... do you really believe this?
1 or 2 units into 40 gives a player advantage?
hahaha
huh?
trick or treat??
==================================================
btw, most times you will not even use the loss rebate
the first time I tried this
the boxman laughed after 7 sessions I played because I never once used my "get-out-of-jail" card one time
and he said I did not have an advantage over his casino playing this way and
I might win 40 units from 1 or 2
1 in 100 times or so
I said thank you as I cashed out my $1000 win (my unit was $50 and I was 4 wins and 3 lost)
have fun with this
and dream of being special!
see you at the craps table
(remember, my shoes)
Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
October 12th, 2014 at 8:05:55 PM
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why is this your final thread?
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed.
I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
October 12th, 2014 at 8:11:31 PM
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11th and FINAL thread?!
you're leaving WoV?!
you're leaving WoV?!
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice).
Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
October 12th, 2014 at 8:13:32 PM
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yes, final threadQuote: GWAEwhy is this your final thread?
I have other adventures to go on
unless Ahigh comes back to play (and he... will)
but this will not be my final post
that may be at 1,111
Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
October 12th, 2014 at 8:15:31 PM
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Quote: GWAEwhy is this your final thread?
I don't know. But I'm not gonna fight it. :)
So the casino has to agree to the "if I bet 5 units and lose I get X back, if I bet 2 or 3 and lose I get Y back"?
October 12th, 2014 at 8:16:58 PM
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Quote: mustangsallyyes, final thread
I have other adventures to go on
unless Ahigh comes back to play (and he... will)
but this will not be my final post
that may be at 1,111
Sally
well I hope that is not true.
I always find your posts entertaining
and the most important part, they are always fun.
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed.
I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
October 12th, 2014 at 8:17:54 PM
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closeQuote: RSSo the casino has to agree to the "if I bet 5 units and lose I get X back, if I bet 2 or 3 and lose I get Y back"?
5 or 4 and all-in I get 2 back and 3 all-in I get 1 back
1 time only per session played
that is this pass345x-1time play
Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
October 12th, 2014 at 8:17:59 PM
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Quote: mustangsallyI thought to make my 11th and final thread at WoV about a neat little Craps AP play I used this last year in many casinos
I have little doubt your math is correct.
However, it would be with much regret if you leave the forum. I think you're the only active female member who has never been either banned or promoted.
If you must leave us, I certainly wish you well and the welcome mat will always be out, should you change your mind.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
October 12th, 2014 at 8:23:13 PM
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Quote: mustangsallyclose
5 or 4 and all-in I get 2 back and 3 all-in I get 1 back
1 time only per session played
that is this pass345x-1time play
Sally
so if you could get the casino to actually give you money back would that be enough to offset the small house edge of the pass line?
I just don't think a casino would be willing to give me anything back when I bust out.
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed.
I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
October 12th, 2014 at 8:23:15 PM
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Sally,
Don't leave, please.
Don't leave, please.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
October 12th, 2014 at 8:26:47 PM
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Quote: beachbumbabsSally,
Don't leave, please.
In honor of Sally always posting songs.
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed.
I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
October 12th, 2014 at 8:31:32 PM
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that is the questionQuote: GWAEso if you could get the casino to actually give you money back would that be enough to offset the small house edge of the pass line?
trick or treat!
if you buy-in for $100 or so, maybe not unless you have a casino host that really can pull the right strings for youQuote: GWAEI just don't think a casino would be willing to give me anything back when I bust out.
I normally buy-in with $1,000 to $2000 when playing this method
my don't pass method with 10x odds requires a minimum $4,000 buy-in
I have a few friends go in together and pool their money and used the pass345-1time play
they had a blast and also mentioned, as i was not there, the boxman there too refused to believe that they (my friends) had the edge over the casino
vote!
Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
October 12th, 2014 at 8:39:14 PM
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how do you do this with a $4000 don't pass strategy?
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice).
Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
October 12th, 2014 at 8:41:37 PM
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I will show my math in Excel later in my online folderQuote: WizardI have little doubt your math is correct.
I have been betting the over for the MLB playoffs
yesterday I was 1-1
tonight
OVER!
yes!!
thank youQuote: WizardI think you're the only active female member who has never been either banned or promoted.
I have been promoted after I was laid off from 2 jobs
now 3 times
wow!
I guess it was in the cards
my Mom says I only married into the money
ok Mom
Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
October 12th, 2014 at 8:45:10 PM
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nice try and thank you for askingQuote: 100xOddshow do you do this with a $4000 don't pass strategy?
that is a different play and one I will never tell unless you watch me play this
(maybe a video later on)
except the unit starts at 40 to try and hit 80 exactly
but if you figure out if the pass345-1x does have an advantage, the same method works for the don't pass
Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
October 12th, 2014 at 9:49:47 PM
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What does the Gus Portocalos (Father in Big Fat Greek Wedding) say to Toula ...
"Why you want to LEAVE me ? "
"Why you want to LEAVE me ? "
Learned Craps in 2013 .... Developed and have a PATENT on Craps "Back On Bet" side bet ...
Working on Craps game variations hope to have patents in 2018 - Second Chance Craps and Sub-Crap-tion ...
A completely new dice game idea is next - D.. Dice D......
October 12th, 2014 at 10:46:31 PM
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" I thought to make my 11th and final thread at WoV. " First I lost Babs, and now you, Sally. Death, where is thy sting ?
Shed not for her
the bitter tear
Nor give the heart
to vain regret
Tis but the casket
that lies here,
The gem that filled it
Sparkles yet
October 12th, 2014 at 11:21:13 PM
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Nobody likes a quiter Sally!... Did I ever tell you how awesome your shoes are.
October 13th, 2014 at 12:49:57 AM
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Quote: beachbumbabsSally,
Don't leave, please.
Ditto.
October 13th, 2014 at 3:27:04 AM
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the loss rebate you are presenting is worded in a weird manner ... if this is a real loss rebate, what is the exact wording the casino uses?
btw I take it you are *not* leaving, just not dedicating any more effort at new threads
btw I take it you are *not* leaving, just not dedicating any more effort at new threads
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
October 13th, 2014 at 4:39:01 AM
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Then it is unanimous: Bring back Ahigh!
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
October 13th, 2014 at 7:45:36 AM
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So you have to use a host to try this play? Or do you just buy in for $1K or $2K, as mentioned, and just simply ask the boxman "Hey, if I get down to my last bet and go all in, can I get a rebate to get 2 units back and go all in again with it the next come out?" Do you have to explain the play to them so they know what 1 unit is, so you can get 2 units back? Along those lines I wouldn't make it more confusing and say 2 units for 4-5 all in, 1 unit for ... I would just ask for an "all in" rebate of 2 units if I have 5 units or less =).
While our time has been narrow, I've also enjoyed your posts as I've also read through the craps subsection. I'm not quite sure why people opt to entirely "leave" the forums. Just check it/post far less regularly? At the end of the day of course you should and will do what you want, but it was a pleasure... even if only for a little while.
While our time has been narrow, I've also enjoyed your posts as I've also read through the craps subsection. I'm not quite sure why people opt to entirely "leave" the forums. Just check it/post far less regularly? At the end of the day of course you should and will do what you want, but it was a pleasure... even if only for a little while.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
October 13th, 2014 at 7:53:00 AM
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What incentive has a casino to agree to the loss rebate?
"What, me worry?"
October 13th, 2014 at 8:42:37 AM
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Quote: MrVWhat incentive has a casino to agree to the loss rebate?
The same that they have to give a loss rebate to whales? Sally basically said you probably wouldn't be able to get away with this unless you were playing with decent money (a grand or two) or have a host that can pull some strings.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
October 13th, 2014 at 9:04:06 AM
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Quote: DeMangoThen it is unanimous: Bring back Ahigh!
permanent self suspension?!
what happened this time??
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice).
Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
October 13th, 2014 at 9:39:25 AM
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"Casinos use loss rebates as an incentive to draw high-limit play."Quote: MrVWhat incentive has a casino to agree to the loss rebate?
this article is well written too, imo
http://cdcgamingreports.com/commentaries/title-2-the-failure-of-loss-rebate-programs-for-high-rollers/
By Eliot Jacobson, Ph.D.
this play is basically a freeze-out game
all or nothing
and can be played many times in a day for the time factor casinos like to see, not all
casinos like lots of high minimum bets
and my claim of a players advantage from the 1 or 2 units that are returned after a all-in bet loss (1 time offer per game)
that MUST be all played on the very next round
has those that think about it believing there is no player advantage
hehe
come on, how often can one turn 1 or 2 units into 40?
well i agree, not often
but is it often enough to gain an advantage?
and what kind of an advantage one my ask
to be or not to be?
I be different
for fun
Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
October 13th, 2014 at 10:04:28 AM
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a loss rebateQuote: odiousgambitthe loss rebate you are presenting is worded in a weird manner ... if this is a real loss rebate, what is the exact wording the casino uses?
I use a "one-time loss rebate" and they now want to know what exactly I mean
I agree there should be a different term used
because it is nothing like any loss rebates that I have ever heard of
I find that the condition of having to bet all of
the one time per game loss rebate on the very next round
is funny to most all
they think that losing 18 or 19 units is enough and 1 or 2 units rebate is going home money
another condition I use is that I have to play and win 2x my unit buy-in
and if I quit before doing that, maybe it takes too long, I lose everything as I quit the game
it truly is an all or nothing game
I found it from a copy/paste mistake I made a year ago that I did not see right away
well, I thought it was a mistake
maybe it is a mistake
trick or treat
Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
October 13th, 2014 at 10:30:34 AM
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Quote: mustangsallyanother condition I use is that I have to play and win 2x my unit buy-in and if I quit before doing that, maybe it takes too long, I lose everything as I quit the game
So who do you discuss this with prior? The boxman? A host? If you wouldn't mind sharing how exactly do you get this set up? Because it seems quite specific and unusual to their normal loss rebates. Anything that's unusual or out of the norm I would think the immediate casino reaction to be "No."
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
October 13th, 2014 at 10:47:27 AM
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Quote: mustangsally
another condition I use is that I have to play and win 2x my unit buy-in
and if I quit before doing that, maybe it takes too long, I lose everything as I quit the game
you may tell them this but there is no way legally that they can take 72 units from you just because you quit early. Hell there is no way they can take 2 units from you after they gave them back. Of course if you did that, you wouldn't get them ever again.
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed.
I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
October 13th, 2014 at 11:21:11 AM
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Sally, Sorry to see you leave this forum, I have always enjoyed your posts!
"Mathematical expectation has nothing to do with results." (Sklansky, Theory of Poker).
October 14th, 2014 at 3:48:52 AM
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Quote: mustangsallyI use a "one-time loss rebate" and they now want to know what exactly I mean
Certainly I do.
I don't know why you can't post the exact rules.
I reread your original post, and it sounds like the player announces that he is going to go all-in and gets an OK that this will qualify for a loss rebate should the bet lose. Evidently you must go all-in; I doubt that it is necessary to have whittled down a larger bankroll, although you make it seem like it. The bet evidently must be 5 chips or less; how the casino words that must be interesting. Perhaps it is the official minimum bet.
Seems to me the rebate at this point must push you over into +EV territory. To attempt to double your original buy-in would not seem to me to be relevant to the AP play, but just a lark to try. I confess this might show that I am really dense, but after all I do have one of those defective Y chromosomes. [g]
Can you tell me if I am close to what the rules state?
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
October 14th, 2014 at 5:57:20 AM
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Quote: odiousgambitCertainly I do.
I don't know why you can't post the exact rules.
I reread your original post, and it sounds like the player announces that he is going to go all-in and gets an OK that this will qualify for a loss rebate should the bet lose. Evidently you must go all-in; I doubt that it is necessary to have whittled down a larger bankroll, although you make it seem like it. The bet evidently must be 5 chips or less; how the casino words that must be interesting. Perhaps it is the official minimum bet.
Seems to me the rebate at this point must push you over into +EV territory. To attempt to double your original buy-in would not seem to me to be relevant to the AP play, but just a lark to try. I confess this might show that I am really dense, but after all I do have one of those defective Y chromosomes. [g]
Can you tell me if I am close to what the rules state?
I think the "double buy in or lose it all" is part of the "rebate contract", might be worded like " I'll buy in for $100 and play until I either win $100 or lose $100. However, if I get down to $25 or less, I must go all in. If that bet loses, I get $x back or $y back (rebate)."
The strength of the play comes from the fact that your all-in bet is a chunky 25% of your buy in. It'd be even stronger, I suspect, if you agreed to having to go "all in" if you were down to 1/2 your bankroll (but obviously got like 4 or 6 units back instead of a measly 2). (Although I don't know if it'd be stronger, because it'd be that much more difficult to grind your way back up to 10 units, since you have to go all in every roll until you're at at least 10 units [or more]).
I don't doubt you have an edge, but, I don't think there is a huge edge,,,,but could be mistaken.
October 14th, 2014 at 6:00:43 AM
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Quote: mustangsally
Bankroll was busted . . = 53.367% of the time
Win goal was met . . . = 46.633% of the time
Is there really any advantage to taking or laying odds if your limits are restricted to either doubling or busting a twenty unit bankroll?
The same odds bets that can double your bankroll in fewer rolls can also help lose your bankroll in even fewer rolls.
Do you have any results using zero odds for these same limits?
October 14th, 2014 at 6:18:10 AM
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Wait, if you win 47% and lose 53%....how would you have an edge? Either win 20 units or lose 20 units, correct?
October 14th, 2014 at 9:49:09 AM
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Quote: RSWait, if you win 47% and lose 53%....how would you have an edge? Either win 20 units or lose 20 units, correct?
but she gets back her $ if she busts :)
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice).
Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
October 14th, 2014 at 11:19:16 AM
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it occurs to me the advice for loss rebates is squarely: either lose a lot or win a lot. Yet why the need to go for double the starting BR once it is down to going all-in?
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
October 14th, 2014 at 12:12:59 PM
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With the structure set up to "rebate" one or two units, you effectively have a 21 or 22 unit bankroll to win 20. It is not a true double up. I think this is where the edge is hidden.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
October 14th, 2014 at 5:21:46 PM
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But how often will the rebate be hit?Quote: AyecarumbaWith the structure set up to "rebate" one or two units, you effectively have a 21 or 22 unit bankroll to win 20. It is not a true double up. I think this is where the edge is hidden.
Ah, the $64,000 question
not that often I say and see
It can be calculated too and I have that
(need to clean my Excel before going online with it. most will not understand it anyways. basic Markov chain method)
now I do show the chance to double 20 to 40 = 0.505842248
that looks like an ev of 0.233689901 per game (double or nothing per 1 unit)
one simple adjustment changes that to
0.507743759
with ev of 0.309750379
of course, yes
if I just start with 15 units and go to 40 units, my ev goes up (also variance) to 0.405091735 per game
game is on!
One MLB over winner already!
here comes another!
see yous after the game
Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
October 14th, 2014 at 5:53:21 PM
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Quote: 100xOddsbut she gets back her $ if she busts :)
She gets back 2 units or w/e it is...but has to go all in with that money.
October 15th, 2014 at 10:44:02 AM
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Quote: 100xOddsbut she gets back her $ if she busts :)
yepQuote: RSShe gets back 2 units or w/e it is...but has to go all in with that money.
once the casino sees this in action, they just think I am a bit crazy and enjoys the games I play
here is a sample of 3 games.
I used a different bankroll but the 20 unit is the same
I lost game 1 and was so close to winning $200
had the loss rebate too and bet it all the next round and lost.
I won the next two games and game 3 went fast as they can
New game started
Beginning bankroll: $200
$10 bet on Pass Line
Roll #1: 6 (2.4)
Point established
$50 bet on Pass Line Odds
Roll #2: 10 (6.4)
Roll #3: 4 (1.3)
Roll #4: 8 (4.4)
Roll #5: 8 (3.5)
Roll #6: 2 (1.1)
Roll #7: 6 (2.4)
Pass (point rolled)
Pass Line bet won $10
Pass Line Odds bet won $60
Bankroll increased to $270 ($70 gain)
Pass Line Odds bet removed
Roll #8: 6 (3.3)
Point established
$50 bet on Pass Line Odds
Roll #9: 9 (5.4)
Roll #10: 4 (3.1)
Roll #11: 9 (3.6)
Roll #12: 6 (1.5)
Pass (point rolled)
Pass Line bet won $10
Pass Line Odds bet won $60
Bankroll increased to $340 ($70 gain)
Pass Line bet increased to $60
Pass Line Odds bet removed
Roll #13: 10 (4.6)
Point established
Roll #14: 9 (4.5)
Roll #15: 8 (4.4)
Roll #16: 7 (5.2)
Miss (seven-out)
Pass Line bet lost $60
Bankroll decreased to $280 ($60 loss)
------New shooter coming out----------
Pass Line bet decreased to $10
Roll #17: 5 (3.2)
Point established
$40 bet on Pass Line Odds
Roll #18: 6 (5.1)
Roll #19: 6 (5.1)
Roll #20: 7 (5.2)
Miss (seven-out)
Pass Line bet lost $10
Pass Line Odds bet lost $40
Bankroll decreased to $230 ($50 loss)
------New shooter coming out----------
Roll #21: 5 (1.4)
Point established
$40 bet on Pass Line Odds
Roll #22: 8 (4.4)
Roll #23: 7 (3.4)
Miss (seven-out)
Pass Line bet lost $10
Pass Line Odds bet lost $40
Bankroll decreased to $180 ($50 loss)
------New shooter coming out----------
Roll #24: 12 (6.6)
Miss (craps natural)
Pass Line bet lost $10
Bankroll decreased to $170 ($10 loss)
Roll #25: 7 (1.6)
Pass (natural)
Pass Line bet won $10
Bankroll increased to $180 ($10 gain)
Roll #26: 12 (6.6)
Miss (craps natural)
Pass Line bet lost $10
Bankroll decreased to $170 ($10 loss)
Roll #27: 3 (1.2)
Miss (craps natural)
Pass Line bet lost $10
Bankroll decreased to $160 ($10 loss)
Roll #28: 8 (4.4)
Point established
$50 bet on Pass Line Odds
Roll #29: 7 (4.3)
Miss (seven-out)
Pass Line bet lost $10
Pass Line Odds bet lost $50
Bankroll decreased to $100 ($60 loss)
------New shooter coming out----------
Roll #30: 7 (4.3)
Pass (natural)
Pass Line bet won $10
Bankroll increased to $110 ($10 gain)
Roll #31: 6 (2.4)
Point established
$50 bet on Pass Line Odds
Roll #32: 7 (4.3)
Miss (seven-out)
Pass Line bet lost $10
Pass Line Odds bet lost $50
Bankroll decreased to $50 ($60 loss)
------New shooter coming out----------
Pass Line bet increased to $50 <<<<< 1st all-in bet
Roll #33: 7 (5.2)
Pass (natural)
Pass Line bet won $50
Bankroll increased to $100 ($50 gain)
Pass Line bet decreased to $10
Roll #34: 6 (1.5)
Point established
$50 bet on Pass Line Odds
Roll #35: 12 (6.6)
Roll #36: 7 (1.6)
Miss (seven-out)
Pass Line bet lost $10
Pass Line Odds bet lost $50
Bankroll decreased to $40 ($60 loss)
------New shooter coming out----------
Pass Line bet increased to $40 <<<<< 2nd all-in bet
Roll #37: 4 (1.3)
Point established
Roll #38: 7 (3.4)
Miss (seven-out)
Pass Line bet lost $40
Bankroll decreased to $0 ($40 loss)
------New shooter coming out----------
Bankroll increased to $20 ($20 one-time loss rebate) <<<<< 3rd all-in bet
$20 bet on Pass Line
Roll #39: 4 (1.3)
Point established
Roll #40: 7 (1.6)
Miss (seven-out)
Pass Line bet lost $20
Bankroll decreased to $0 ($20 loss)
End Game #1
New game started
Beginning bankroll: $200
------New shooter coming out----------
$10 bet on Pass Line
Roll #1: 7 (4.3)
Pass (natural)
Pass Line bet won $10
Bankroll increased to $210 ($10 gain)
Roll #2: 7 (6.1)
Pass (natural)
Pass Line bet won $10
Bankroll increased to $220 ($10 gain)
Roll #3: 7 (5.2)
Pass (natural)
Pass Line bet won $10
Bankroll increased to $230 ($10 gain)
Roll #4: 6 (3.3)
Point established
$50 bet on Pass Line Odds
Roll #5: 10 (6.4)
Roll #6: 5 (2.3)
Roll #7: 8 (2.6)
Roll #8: 7 (1.6)
Miss (seven-out)
Pass Line bet lost $10
Pass Line Odds bet lost $50
Bankroll decreased to $170 ($60 loss)
------New shooter coming out----------
Roll #9: 7 (4.3)
Pass (natural)
Pass Line bet won $10
Bankroll increased to $180 ($10 gain)
Roll #10: 8 (4.4)
Point established
$50 bet on Pass Line Odds
Roll #11: 8 (4.4)
Pass (point rolled)
Pass Line bet won $10
Pass Line Odds bet won $60
Bankroll increased to $250 ($70 gain)
Pass Line Odds bet removed
Roll #12: 7 (5.2)
Pass (natural)
Pass Line bet won $10
Bankroll increased to $260 ($10 gain)
Roll #13: 5 (1.4)
Point established
$40 bet on Pass Line Odds
Roll #14: 10 (4.6)
Roll #15: 10 (5.5)
Roll #16: 3 (1.2)
Roll #17: 8 (2.6)
Roll #18: 7 (1.6)
Miss (seven-out)
Pass Line bet lost $10
Pass Line Odds bet lost $40
Bankroll decreased to $210 ($50 loss)
------New shooter coming out----------
Roll #19: 4 (1.3)
Point established
$30 bet on Pass Line Odds
Roll #20: 3 (2.1)
Roll #21: 10 (5.5)
Roll #22: 9 (3.6)
Roll #23: 4 (2.2)
Pass (point rolled)
Pass Line bet won $10
Pass Line Odds bet won $60
Bankroll increased to $280 ($70 gain)
Pass Line Odds bet removed
Roll #24: 6 (5.1)
Point established
$50 bet on Pass Line Odds
Roll #25: 12 (6.6)
Roll #26: 6 (2.4)
Pass (point rolled)
Pass Line bet won $10
Pass Line Odds bet won $60
Bankroll increased to $350 ($70 gain)
Pass Line bet increased to $50
Pass Line Odds bet removed
Roll #27: 8 (5.3)
Point established
Roll #28: 5 (1.4)
Roll #29: 7 (4.3)
Miss (seven-out)
Pass Line bet lost $50
Bankroll decreased to $300 ($50 loss)
------New shooter coming out----------
Pass Line bet decreased to $10
Roll #30: 8 (5.3)
Point established
$50 bet on Pass Line Odds
Roll #31: 12 (6.6)
Roll #32: 8 (5.3)
Pass (point rolled)
Pass Line bet won $10
Pass Line Odds bet won $60
Bankroll increased to $370 ($70 gain)
Pass Line bet increased to $30
Pass Line Odds bet removed
Roll #33: 5 (3.2)
Point established
Roll #34: 12 (6.6)
Roll #35: 4 (2.2)
Roll #36: 11 (5.6)
Roll #37: 10 (6.4)
Roll #38: 8 (3.5)
Roll #39: 4 (2.2)
Roll #40: 9 (5.4)
Roll #41: 7 (5.2)
Miss (seven-out)
Pass Line bet lost $30
Bankroll decreased to $340 ($30 loss)
------New shooter coming out----------
Pass Line bet increased to $60
Roll #42: 7 (1.6)
Pass (natural)
Pass Line bet won $60
Bankroll increased to $400 ($60 gain)
End Game #2
New game started
Beginning bankroll: $200
------New shooter coming out----------
$10 bet on Pass Line
Roll #1: 2 (1.1)
Miss (craps natural)
Pass Line bet lost $10
Bankroll decreased to $190 ($10 loss)
Roll #2: 8 (3.5)
Point established
$50 bet on Pass Line Odds
Roll #3: 2 (1.1)
Roll #4: 8 (6.2)
Pass (point rolled)
Pass Line bet won $10
Pass Line Odds bet won $60
Bankroll increased to $260 ($70 gain)
Pass Line Odds bet removed
Roll #5: 4 (3.1)
Point established
$30 bet on Pass Line Odds
Roll #6: 4 (1.3)
Pass (point rolled)
Pass Line bet won $10
Pass Line Odds bet won $60
Bankroll increased to $330 ($70 gain)
Pass Line Odds bet removed
Roll #7: 7 (2.5)
Pass (natural)
Pass Line bet won $10
Bankroll increased to $340 ($10 gain)
Pass Line bet increased to $60
Roll #8: 5 (1.4)
Point established
Roll #9: 8 (6.2)
Roll #10: 4 (1.3)
Roll #11: 4 (2.2)
Roll #12: 7 (3.4)
Miss (seven-out)
Pass Line bet lost $60
Bankroll decreased to $280 ($60 loss)
------New shooter coming out----------
Pass Line bet decreased to $10
Roll #13: 8 (4.4)
Point established
$50 bet on Pass Line Odds
Roll #14: 8 (2.6)
Pass (point rolled)
Pass Line bet won $10
Pass Line Odds bet won $60
Bankroll increased to $350 ($70 gain)
Pass Line bet increased to $50
Pass Line Odds bet removed
Roll #15: 10 (5.5)
Point established
Roll #16: 10 (5.5)
Pass (point rolled)
Pass Line bet won $50
Bankroll increased to $400 ($50 gain)
End Game #3
Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
October 15th, 2014 at 12:33:15 PM
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345x pass line odds
Bankroll was busted . . = 53.367% of the time
Win goal was met . . . = 46.633% of the time
adds variance
If we bet all 20 units right on the first bet and lose and get back 2 units to bet all again using no odds
we should have a higher success rate to double, but that is because our unit bet on the come out roll is way higher.
$2000 vs $100 (the 345x method)
maybe the casino would want a much higher bet to rebate something
reminds me of he who bet $700,000+ at Roulette at the Plaza on Red, double or nothing without any loss rebate
he won
back to bet all 20 units
prob of success = 244/495 = a
if fail we need to start at 2
then 4
then 8
then 16
now we are at 32 and only need to bet 8 to hit our double target
(this is my game "double or nothing")
the probability of success = 0.046781475 = b
the total success probability = a+b = 0.539710768
nice, a player edge
how about the rules state I only get back 1 unit after my 20 unit all-in bet
b=0.023059959
the total success probability = a+b = 0.515989252
nice, a player edge
but the casino has to agree and I think few would, but some might
the pass345x is just one example of many
just think of the possibilities
Sally
Bankroll was busted . . = 53.367% of the time
Win goal was met . . . = 46.633% of the time
yes, depends on your unit bet. the example I have uses 20 unit bankroll so a buy-in of 2000 = 20 $100 units and the first bet = $100 on the pass lineQuote: TankoIs there really any advantage to taking or laying odds if your limits are restricted to either doubling or busting a twenty unit bankroll?
yes, it canQuote: TankoThe same odds bets that can double your bankroll in fewer rolls can also help lose your bankroll in even fewer rolls.
adds variance
let us do that right hereQuote: TankoDo you have any results using zero odds for these same limits?
If we bet all 20 units right on the first bet and lose and get back 2 units to bet all again using no odds
we should have a higher success rate to double, but that is because our unit bet on the come out roll is way higher.
$2000 vs $100 (the 345x method)
maybe the casino would want a much higher bet to rebate something
reminds me of he who bet $700,000+ at Roulette at the Plaza on Red, double or nothing without any loss rebate
he won
back to bet all 20 units
prob of success = 244/495 = a
if fail we need to start at 2
then 4
then 8
then 16
now we are at 32 and only need to bet 8 to hit our double target
(this is my game "double or nothing")
the probability of success = 0.046781475 = b
the total success probability = a+b = 0.539710768
nice, a player edge
how about the rules state I only get back 1 unit after my 20 unit all-in bet
b=0.023059959
the total success probability = a+b = 0.515989252
nice, a player edge
but the casino has to agree and I think few would, but some might
the pass345x is just one example of many
just think of the possibilities
Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
October 15th, 2014 at 12:42:14 PM
permalink
it is my game I offer to the casinoQuote: odiousgambitit occurs to me the advice for loss rebates is squarely: either lose a lot or win a lot. Yet why the need to go for double the starting BR once it is down to going all-in?
"double or nothing"
they understand it
as to the exact rules I offer, well, they do and have changed
casinos are different as are the casino managers too
some want a lot of money deposited first and strict number of games to play and high minimum bets
most already have an idea of how loss rebates are currently offered at craps
they have all found it an interesting proposition that I offer
and still have been turned down for one reason or another (not enough money is common)
it has not been at all difficult to do
so I share a fun and easy one as there are many others
still, many believe there is no players advantage in this at all
maybe just a free meal
Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
October 15th, 2014 at 6:12:23 PM
permalink
I'm 9w 8l on wincraps
started 3-0 got to 3-4 and bounced around since
didnt see a bet file on your onedrive ;x
started 3-0 got to 3-4 and bounced around since
didnt see a bet file on your onedrive ;x
October 15th, 2014 at 11:52:29 PM
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I have no bet file for WinCraps for thisQuote: bahdbwoyI'm 9w 8l on wincraps
started 3-0 got to 3-4 and bounced around since
didnt see a bet file on your onedrive ;x
I played it manually using the auto roll dice
I have more fun with the don't pass loss rebate actually
In CA we even have a few craps games with +EV for the don't pass, if that matters
Sally
another over in MLB
one more to go
I Heart Vi Hart
October 16th, 2014 at 3:03:08 AM
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Quote: mustangsallyz
Bankroll was busted . . = 53.367% of the time
Win goal was met . . . = 46.633% of the time
If I'm understanding this correctly, you're saying you win (20 units) 46.xx% of the time, and you lose (20 units) 53.xx% of the time.
How is this +EV if you're losing more than you're winning?
October 16th, 2014 at 3:45:39 AM
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Quote: RSIf I'm understanding this correctly, you're saying you win (20 units) 46.xx% of the time, and you lose (20 units) 53.xx% of the time.
How is this +EV if you're losing more than you're winning?
she is saying (correct me if im wrong)... that is the normal success/ruin probabilities of passline with 345 odds..
she also saying that increases to .49xxx if you adjust last bet when within range to get to the exact double bankroll (20 units to 40)...
the +ev she is saying comes from when you bust on an all in you get back 1 or 2 units to attempt to go from that back up to 40 units.. the slight probability to turn the 1/2 into 40 combined with the initial .49xx makes it +ev..
so can you play at high enough stakes that they will comp you 1 or 2 units basically (only 1 time per bankroll and must go all in with it)
that about it?
October 17th, 2014 at 2:25:40 PM
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$200 buy-in
$10 passline/max odds on 3/4/5x table?
only 4x buy-in?
Why not do Bold Play: 4/9 of bankroll, 4/9, 1/9?
$10 passline/max odds on 3/4/5x table?
only 4x buy-in?
Why not do Bold Play: 4/9 of bankroll, 4/9, 1/9?
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice).
Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
October 20th, 2014 at 8:00:47 AM
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Sally, Sally, Sally
$200 bank roll and starting position after point is set.......$60
That is over 30% of bank roll... this is not gambling this is disaster.
Now I understand you have a larger bank roll but many players do not,
so when they go to the table they start with it all, what ever they intend to
gamble with. 30% is way, way, to high.
Now if you go to the casino once a month with $200 and you intend to lose it
who cares. but if you play a lot and you start with more than 2% of your total
gambling bank roll, you have a real good chance of losing it all.
Dicesetter
here is another example of something like your doing, but I cant tell you it does not
work unless you regress.
$300 start.
$5 pass
point is 6 $5 pass with triple odds
start $10 4 10$ 10 $10- 5
Total starting bet $41 or 13.6% of bank roll
10- 6-4 take $8 press 10 to $20
5 4-1 take $14
2 1-1
10 6-4 take $38
11 5-6
10 4/6 take $38
9 5-4
4 2-2 take $8 press 4 to $20
9 5-4
7 6-1
made $106 left $71 on table
hand 2
3 1-2
9 3-6 (pass number)
Start $10 4 & 10 $18 8 $5 pass with triple odds
starting bet $59 or 19.66% of bank roll
8 6-2 take $21
4 2-2 take $8 press 4 to $20
6 3-3
3 2-1
8 4-4 Tale $21
6 5-1
8 5-3 take $3 press 8 to $36
9 6-3 pass winner take $26
5 3-2 new point . triple odds
4 2=2 take $38
9 6-3
7 4-3 out
take $117 left $87 on table
Now both of these rolls were longer than average and both made money
ending up in the plus at 74.3% of starting bank roll, but.......... I left $158 on
the table for a total of 52.6% of start. When you consider the number of
shorter rolls a person has, you cant leave 52% of starting position on the
table and survive and that is the result of starting out so high.
For me to make money I need to limit my start to outside numbers and repeat
them. Most people bet the 6 & 8 , but your return is narrow so to make any money
they start at $18 or $24 6 & 8, and when added to pass line bet, your way to high
in terms of starting position. I would rather bet outside numbers when I throw.
I have seen way to many people come to the table with big money and end up with
no money .
dicesetter
$200 bank roll and starting position after point is set.......$60
That is over 30% of bank roll... this is not gambling this is disaster.
Now I understand you have a larger bank roll but many players do not,
so when they go to the table they start with it all, what ever they intend to
gamble with. 30% is way, way, to high.
Now if you go to the casino once a month with $200 and you intend to lose it
who cares. but if you play a lot and you start with more than 2% of your total
gambling bank roll, you have a real good chance of losing it all.
Dicesetter
here is another example of something like your doing, but I cant tell you it does not
work unless you regress.
$300 start.
$5 pass
point is 6 $5 pass with triple odds
start $10 4 10$ 10 $10- 5
Total starting bet $41 or 13.6% of bank roll
10- 6-4 take $8 press 10 to $20
5 4-1 take $14
2 1-1
10 6-4 take $38
11 5-6
10 4/6 take $38
9 5-4
4 2-2 take $8 press 4 to $20
9 5-4
7 6-1
made $106 left $71 on table
hand 2
3 1-2
9 3-6 (pass number)
Start $10 4 & 10 $18 8 $5 pass with triple odds
starting bet $59 or 19.66% of bank roll
8 6-2 take $21
4 2-2 take $8 press 4 to $20
6 3-3
3 2-1
8 4-4 Tale $21
6 5-1
8 5-3 take $3 press 8 to $36
9 6-3 pass winner take $26
5 3-2 new point . triple odds
4 2=2 take $38
9 6-3
7 4-3 out
take $117 left $87 on table
Now both of these rolls were longer than average and both made money
ending up in the plus at 74.3% of starting bank roll, but.......... I left $158 on
the table for a total of 52.6% of start. When you consider the number of
shorter rolls a person has, you cant leave 52% of starting position on the
table and survive and that is the result of starting out so high.
For me to make money I need to limit my start to outside numbers and repeat
them. Most people bet the 6 & 8 , but your return is narrow so to make any money
they start at $18 or $24 6 & 8, and when added to pass line bet, your way to high
in terms of starting position. I would rather bet outside numbers when I throw.
I have seen way to many people come to the table with big money and end up with
no money .
dicesetter
October 20th, 2014 at 12:24:46 PM
permalink
Quote: dicesitterSally, Sally, Sally
$200 bank roll and starting position after point is set.......$60
That is over 30% of bank roll... this is not gambling this is disaster.
Now I understand you have a larger bank roll but many players do not,
so when they go to the table they start with it all, what ever they intend to
gamble with. 30% is way, way, to high.
Now if you go to the casino once a month with $200 and you intend to lose it
who cares. but if you play a lot and you start with more than 2% of your total
gambling bank roll, you have a real good chance of losing it all.
Dicesetter
here is another example of something like your doing, but I cant tell you it does not
work unless you regress.
$300 start.
$5 pass
point is 6 $5 pass with triple odds
start $10 4 10$ 10 $10- 5
Total starting bet $41 or 13.6% of bank roll
10- 6-4 take $8 press 10 to $20
5 4-1 take $14
2 1-1
10 6-4 take $38
11 5-6
10 4/6 take $38
9 5-4
4 2-2 take $8 press 4 to $20
9 5-4
7 6-1
made $106 left $71 on table
hand 2
3 1-2
9 3-6 (pass number)
Start $10 4 & 10 $18 8 $5 pass with triple odds
starting bet $59 or 19.66% of bank roll
Be careful you don't piss her off, she can probably whip both of us.
8 6-2 take $21
4 2-2 take $8 press 4 to $20
6 3-3
3 2-1
8 4-4 Tale $21
6 5-1
8 5-3 take $3 press 8 to $36
9 6-3 pass winner take $26
5 3-2 new point . triple odds
4 2=2 take $38
9 6-3
7 4-3 out
take $117 left $87 on table
Now both of these rolls were longer than average and both made money
ending up in the plus at 74.3% of starting bank roll, but.......... I left $158 on
the table for a total of 52.6% of start. When you consider the number of
shorter rolls a person has, you cant leave 52% of starting position on the
table and survive and that is the result of starting out so high.
For me to make money I need to limit my start to outside numbers and repeat
them. Most people bet the 6 & 8 , but your return is narrow so to make any money
they start at $18 or $24 6 & 8, and when added to pass line bet, your way to high
in terms of starting position. I would rather bet outside numbers when I throw.
I have seen way to many people come to the table with big money and end up with
no money .
dicesetter
Be careful you don't piss her off, I think she can whip both of us?
October 20th, 2014 at 12:38:54 PM
permalink
Dicesetter,
$200 buy in players have a $10K bankroll? Pretty sure gamblers don't have a bankroll, they just scrounge up extra cash they have.
It sounds like you have no idea what a loss rebate is or how to go about attacking one. On a loss rebate, you typically want to bet as much as you can, so you either win or lose in one shot (or a couple shots). If it's something you can do every day or multiple times a day (sounds like that's possible with this) for small amounts, then you want to bet a large chunk of the BR at a time. That maximizes your EV but will also increase variance (but if you can do it every day forever for a small amount....). If it's something that you can't do too often for a large amount, you want to bet smaller chunks of the BR at a time, to increase your probability of success (but decreases your EV).
$200 buy in players have a $10K bankroll? Pretty sure gamblers don't have a bankroll, they just scrounge up extra cash they have.
It sounds like you have no idea what a loss rebate is or how to go about attacking one. On a loss rebate, you typically want to bet as much as you can, so you either win or lose in one shot (or a couple shots). If it's something you can do every day or multiple times a day (sounds like that's possible with this) for small amounts, then you want to bet a large chunk of the BR at a time. That maximizes your EV but will also increase variance (but if you can do it every day forever for a small amount....). If it's something that you can't do too often for a large amount, you want to bet smaller chunks of the BR at a time, to increase your probability of success (but decreases your EV).
