guitarmandp
• Posts: 187
Joined: Mar 17, 2014
October 12th, 2014 at 4:06:19 PM permalink
Okay there is a regular at the casino I go to that really his only big bet is a \$25 firebet and he might have \$50 worth of action on the table during a roll. Even during a hot roll he usually says "same bet".

Anyways he claims that he's made over 200 grand playing the fire and that he's been on over 80 fire bets so far this year.

I find the 200K profit to be hard to believe. I think he might have grossed 200K, but might have spent more than 200K chasing the fire.

Anyways the probability of hitting a 6 point fire is 1 in 6,100 and something. Recently the idea popped into my head. Wouldn't he better off just putting a \$25 chip on the hard 6 on every shooter and parlaying it twice to get it up to \$2,500 and then collecting the \$25,000 payout? It seems to me like you see the hard 6 or the hard 8 come 3 times before an easy 6 or 7 far more often than a 6 point fire bet.

FYI: The casino I play with allows up to a \$25 firebet and has a \$10,000 table max but on prop bets the limit is \$3,000.
mustangsally
• Posts: 2463
Joined: Mar 29, 2011
October 12th, 2014 at 6:58:58 PM permalink
Quote: guitarmandp

Anyways he claims that he's made over 200 grand playing the fire and that he's been on over 80 fire bets so far this year.

sure, why not
some can get lucky for extended periods of time
especially with payoffs of 250 and 1000 for 1
Quote: guitarmandp

I find the 200K profit to be hard to believe.

I find the \$200K profit to be easy to believe
and he also wins \$600 or \$6,225 too (more often than the 6Fire, imo)
Quote: guitarmandp

I think he might have grossed 200K, but might have spent more than 200K chasing the fire.

that could be true too
Quote: guitarmandp

Anyways the probability of hitting a 6 point fire is 1 in 6,100 and something.

yes
Quote: guitarmandp

Recently the idea popped into my head.
Wouldn't he better off just putting a \$25 chip on the hard 6 on every shooter and parlaying it twice to get it up to \$2,500 and then collecting the \$25,000 payout?

better off in what way?

Firebet, imo, would be more fun
Quote: guitarmandp

It seems to me like you see the hard 6 or the hard 8 come 3 times before an easy 6 or 7 far more often than a 6 point fire bet.

like I see that too, but not many of the tables I play at even have the Firebet
and I did mention he wins on 4 and 5 points too
and the parlay to \$25k either does or does not pay

Sally
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dicesitter
• Posts: 1157
Joined: Jan 17, 2013
October 12th, 2014 at 9:58:52 PM permalink
hey

I don't have any trouble believing he made over \$200,000 or the fire bet, but the trouble is
he lost over 2 million doing it

dicesetter
guitarmandp
• Posts: 187
Joined: Mar 17, 2014
October 13th, 2014 at 3:58:30 AM permalink
Sally, I see him spend entire days at the casino betting \$25 on a firebet. Every 40 shooters that's \$1,000. The firebet is the worst bet in craps odds wise

Here's another problem. He doesn't make 25K on a 6 point fire. He's left with 17K after taxes and he lays the 4tth point for hundreds of dollars and the 5th and 6th point for thousands so I would guess on a 6 pointer he collects only 12K and 3 or 4K on a 5 pointer.

He was on a 4 point fire bet tonight he told me but he only collected like \$400 because he laid the 4th point for a little over \$200
Zer0
• Posts: 137
Joined: Jan 30, 2014
October 19th, 2014 at 7:11:45 PM permalink
Personally I prefer the fire bet over any other side bet at the craps table, though I'd never put more than a buck on it, maybe press it up to 10 if I hit it once but that's about it. Hardways and prop bets aren't only sucker bets because of the high house edge, they're also boring as #%€&. At least the fire bet gives the shooter somewhat of a sense of achievement.
Zer0
• Posts: 137
Joined: Jan 30, 2014
October 19th, 2014 at 7:11:45 PM permalink
EDIT:accidental double post I can't delete so I'll add this point as well: fire bets don't resolve as fast as props and usually hardways, it may have a higher house edge but it takes so long to resolve the house isn't going to get much out of you if you just do dollars and press on wins, plus if you keep most of your money on pass line/odds it's not going to make a big difference to your bankroll anyway.
MrLeft
• Posts: 43
Joined: Oct 23, 2014
October 26th, 2014 at 5:20:38 AM permalink
Quote: guitarmandp

I think he might have grossed 200K, but might have spent more than 200K chasing the fire.

That's pretty much what it is for 99% gamblers who claim big wins ... lol

The only 1% is just dumb luck ... with special emphasis on the *dumb*! ;)
MrLeft