TRYING to understand Pass Odds bets a little more

I know that the average number of points hit per shooter (prior to a 7-out) can be calculated, and it helps to explain a bit more about the game...

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/questions-and-answers/gambling/3146-average-number-of-points-hit-per-shooter-in-craps/#post33406

But, does it make sense to take that information and use it to have a better understanding of Pass Odds bet payout possibilities, and is this math correct?

The average number of points hit per shooter (201/294) = 0.683673469
The average of the six different point numbers payout ratios (2/1 X 6/24 + 3/2 X 8/24 + 6/5 X 10/24) = (180/120) = 1.50

0.682672469 X 1.5 = 1.0255102041

So 1.026 is the average return per bet unit for Pass Odds bets. (Is this what you would call it ?)

Good question.

Newtocraps




Not sure what your trying to figure out.

If the house edge on a pass line bet is 1.42% that means out of every $100 you bet your
expected loss is $1.42. so your return on every dollar you bet is .985 cents or .985 of
that dollar.

If you calculate it as you stated, making the point after you have a point established, that
is much different. After (not counting the player advantage on the come out) per centage
changes to .59 of the shooters make a point, and your loss expectation changes depending
on the point you have set and the odds paid.

There is no bet on the table that does not have a house advantage.

dicesetter

Prob of making 0 or more points 1.0000000000000000
Prob of making exactly 0 points 0.5939393939393940
Win from making 0 point(s) -1.0 units
Prob of making 1 or more points 0.4060606060606061
Prob of making exactly 1 points 0.2411753902662994
Win from making 1 point(s) 0.5 units
Prob of making 2 or more points 0.1648852157943067
Prob of making exactly 2 points 0.0979318251384367
Win from making 2 point(s) 2.0 units
Prob of making 3 or more points 0.0669533906558700
Prob of making exactly 3 points 0.0397662562683349
Win from making 3 point(s) 3.5 units
Prob of making 4 or more points 0.0271871343875351
Prob of making exactly 4 points 0.0161475101210814
Win from making 4 point(s) 5.0 units
Prob of making 5 or more points 0.0110396242664536
Prob of making exactly 5 points 0.0065568677461361
Win from making 5 point(s) 6.5 units
Prob of making 6 or more points 0.0044827565203175
Prob of making exactly 6 points 0.0026624856908553
Win from making 6 point(s) 8.0 units
Prob of making 7 or more points 0.0018202708294623
Prob of making exactly 7 points 0.0010811305532564
Win from making 7 point(s) 9.5 units
Prob of making 8 or more points 0.0007391402762059
Prob of making exactly 8 points 0.0004390045276859
Win from making 8 point(s) 11.0 units
Prob of making 9 or more points 0.0003001357485200
Prob of making exactly 9 points 0.0001782624445755
Win from making 9 point(s) 12.5 units
Prob of making 10 or more points 0.0001218733039445
Prob of making exactly 10 points 0.0000723853562822
Win from making 10 point(s) 14.0 units
Prob of making 11 or more points 0.0000494879476623
Prob of making exactly 11 points 0.0000293928416419
Win from making 11 point(s) 15.5 units
Prob of making 12 or more points 0.0000200951060204
Prob of making exactly 12 points 0.0000119352750909
Win from making 12 point(s) 17.0 units
Prob of making 13 or more points 0.0000081598309295
Prob of making exactly 13 points 0.0000048464450369
Win from making 13 point(s) 18.5 units
Prob of making 14 or more points 0.0000033133858926
Prob of making exactly 14 points 0.0000019679504089
Win from making 14 point(s) 20.0 units
Prob of making 15 or more points 0.0000013454354837
Prob of making exactly 15 points 0.0000007991071357
Win from making 15 point(s) 21.5 units
Prob of making 16 or more points 0.0000005463283479
Prob of making exactly 16 points 0.0000003244859278
Win from making 16 point(s) 23.0 units
Prob of making 17 or more points 0.0000002218424201
Prob of making exactly 17 points 0.0000001317609525
Win from making 17 point(s) 24.5 units
Prob of making 18 or more points 0.0000000900814675
Prob of making exactly 18 points 0.0000000535029322
Win from making 18 point(s) 26.0 units
Prob of making 19 or more points 0.0000000365785353
Prob of making exactly 19 points 0.0000000217254331
Win from making 19 point(s) 27.5 units
Prob of making 20 or more points 0.0000000148531022
Prob of making exactly 20 points 0.0000000088218425
Win from making 20 point(s) 29.0 units
Prob of making 21 or more points 0.0000000060312597
Prob of making exactly 21 points 0.0000000035822027
Win from making 21 point(s) 30.5 units
Prob of making 22 or more points 0.0000000024490570
Prob of making exactly 22 points 0.0000000014545914
Win from making 22 point(s) 32.0 units
Prob of making 23 or more points 0.0000000009944656
Prob of making exactly 23 points 0.0000000005906523
Win from making 23 point(s) 33.5 units
Prob of making 24 or more points 0.0000000004038133
Prob of making exactly 24 points 0.0000000002398406
Win from making 24 point(s) 35.0 units
Prob of making 25 or more points 0.0000000001639727
Prob of making exactly 25 points 0.0000000000973898
Win from making 25 point(s) 36.5 units
Prob of making 26 or more points 0.0000000000665828
Prob of making exactly 26 points 0.0000000000395462
Win from making 26 point(s) 38.0 units
Prob of making 27 or more points 0.0000000000270367
Prob of making exactly 27 points 0.0000000000160581
Win from making 27 point(s) 39.5 units
Prob of making 28 or more points 0.0000000000109785
Prob of making exactly 28 points 0.0000000000065206
Win from making 28 point(s) 41.0 units
Prob of making 29 or more points 0.0000000000044579
Prob of making exactly 29 points 0.0000000000026478
Win from making 29 point(s) 42.5 units
Prob of making 30 or more points 0.0000000000018102
Prob of making exactly 30 points 0.0000000000010751
Win from making 30 point(s) 44.0 units
Prob of making 31 or more points 0.0000000000007350
Prob of making exactly 31 points 0.0000000000004366
Win from making 31 point(s) 45.5 units
Prob of making 32 or more points 0.0000000000002985
Prob of making exactly 32 points 0.0000000000001773
Win from making 32 point(s) 47.0 units
Prob of making 33 or more points 0.0000000000001212
Prob of making exactly 33 points 0.0000000000000720
Win from making 33 point(s) 48.5 units
Prob of making 34 or more points 0.0000000000000492
Prob of making exactly 34 points 0.0000000000000292
Win from making 34 point(s) 50.0 units
Prob of making 35 or more points 0.0000000000000200
Prob of making exactly 35 points 0.0000000000000119
Win from making 35 point(s) 51.5 units
Prob of making 36 or more points 0.0000000000000081
Prob of making exactly 36 points 0.0000000000000048
Win from making 36 point(s) 53.0 units
Prob of making 37 or more points 0.0000000000000033
Prob of making exactly 37 points 0.0000000000000020
Win from making 37 point(s) 54.5 units
Prob of making 38 or more points 0.0000000000000013
Prob of making exactly 38 points 0.0000000000000008
Win from making 38 point(s) 56.0 units
Prob of making 39 or more points 0.0000000000000005
Prob of making exactly 39 points 0.0000000000000003
Win from making 39 point(s) 57.5 units
Prob of making 40 or more points 0.0000000000000002
Prob of making exactly 40 points 0.0000000000000001
Win from making 40 point(s) 59.0 units
Prob of making 41 or more points 0.0000000000000001
Prob of making exactly 41 points 0.0000000000000001
Win from making 41 point(s) 60.5 units
Total = 1.0000000000000000
Avg win = 0.0000000000000054

That's the best I could explain along the lines of what I think you were thinking. Not sure where your calculations went wrong, but I expect that if you can understand the steps I'm going through to find that the total chance of hitting each of the possible number of points is 100% and the total win is 0 (except some roundoff error) you can probably figure out where you went wrong.

Looking at the math, when you make the average number of points, it does appear you win. But since it's the weighted average of wins at integral numbers of points made that matters and the win amount starts at -1 and goes up by 1.5 for each point made, there is just a situation where the average number of points does not equal to zero when modulated with the win per point formula.

I think that's it. Yeah. So maybe your math is right, just some counter-intuitive stuff on the amount you win with an average number of points made.

This is a really good question, though, I think.

-----

Actually, I wanted to understand if the "weighted average of Pass Odds bet winning ratio after the Point is eatablished" (still not sure if that is what this is) could be used as a number that means something.

If you take No Crap Craps and do the same computation you get:

For the average number of point hit per shooter (prior to a seven-out) ...
(12/30) * (3/9) + (8/30) * (4/10) + (10/30) * (5/11) = 0.3915
0.3915/(1-0.3915) = 0.6434
In comparision to Casino Craps value of 0.6837,

Crapless craps hits a slight bit fewer points per shooter, BUT

The average of the eight different point numbers payout ratios ...
(2/1 * 12/30) + (3/2 * 8/30) + (6/5 * 10/30) = 1.60
In comparison to Casion Craps value of 1.50.

Crapless Craps has a slightly larger ratio, AND

Multiplying them and No Craps Craps is slightly better from this perspective (?)

0.6837 * 1.5 = 1.0255
0.6434 * 1.6 = 1.0295

Quote: NewToCraps

Actually, I wanted to understand if the "weighted average of Pass Odds bet winning ratio after the Point is eatablished" (still not sure if that is what this is) could be used as a number that means something.

I've never heard anyone look into this nook or cranny. I would venture to guess that this is a red herring. You can't make a partial point and players don't care at all what happens from the average result in terms of number of points made because it's always above or below the average. On average, you lose! IE: 59% of the time players lose their odds AFTER losing EV on the pass line. The don't pass is a better bet in every way. Until people start preferring the don't pass instead of the pass, I think you're fighting an uphill battle making improvements on the game when people are already afraid to take (and especially lay) odds and readily accept crap-check bets to insure their pass line.

You play a lot of craps Ahigh, IF you were willing to look at a Craps variant, what would be the most important thing to sell you on .. to get you to try it ?
A particular ratio,
Speed of play,
?????

Quote: NewToCraps

You play a lot of craps Ahigh, IF you were willing to look at a Craps variant, what would be the most important thing to sell you on .. to get you to try it ?
A particular ratio,
Speed of play,
?????

I try all of these variants, but casinos are not interested in lower edge per roll than what's currently available in my opinion. They even still complain about exposure from bets that have 1% edge per roll and up like the fire bet and bonus craps all bets. The Palms was telling me that they ditched the all-tall all-small bets because "they were getting killed."

LOL.

Put something in with an edge per roll of what I'd be interested in (0.33% or lower) and the casinos are all too much of wusses to try it.

Quote: Ahigh

Put something in with an edge per roll of what I'd be interested in (0.33% or lower) and the casinos are all too much of wusses to try it.

How about a Place to Win number that the bet pays 6:5 (rather than that unusul 7:6 like the 6 or 8 of Craps) and the -ev is around 1% rather than 1.52% ?

Or a Place to Lose number that the bet pays 4:5 with th -ev around 1% ?

I think I can get the -ev under your 0.33% with a Place to Lose number that the bet pays around 5:28 (sorry that it cost you so much, but a LOW -ev).

I'll put those ideas in my objectives for my THIRD game attempt that I put a preliminay post out there.

For me personally, I don't think my interest in the game could intensify as I'm pretty nuts about the game the way that it is.

I would rather have a whole new game than a variation on a game that I like just the way that it is.

If I have a passline bet of $10 and take max odds of $50, when the point is six, what is the overall house advantage on the combined bet?

thanks

Quote: allinriverking

If I have a passline bet of $10

should be easy to do

Quote: allinriverking

and take max odds of $50,

another easy task

Quote: allinriverking

when the point is six,

ONLY when the point is 6 or ???

Quote: allinriverking

what is the overall house advantage on the combined bet?

huh huh??
ONLY when the point is six?
per bet resolved or per roll (as the pass line bet can not be decreased)

I would think it would be the same as a pass line bet of $1 and $5 odds.
or 1 unit with 5 unit odds

ands
the EV for a $5 pass line bet with NO odds = the EV of a pass line bet with $5/$50 odds
so what gives?
opinions?

my opinion on this

Sally

Quote: NewToCraps

I know that the average number of points hit per shooter (prior to a 7-out) can be calculated, and it helps to explain a bit more about the game...

but no one believes that 0.68 average or
about 60% of all shooters hands have not ONE point winner. Zero
The public perception = the skill of the shooter determines the average number of points hit

you must be after something else...
something

Quote: NewToCraps

But, does it make sense to take that information

no

Quote: NewToCraps

and use it to have a better understanding of Pass Odds bet payout possibilities,

no

Quote: NewToCraps

and is this math correct?

correct for? (what?)

the return to the player
$10 odds bet ALWAYS

$0 returned with prob = 784/1320
$22 returned with prob = 250/1320
$25 returned with prob = 176/1320
$30 returned with prob = 110/1320
multiply across and sum down to see the return
0
4 1/6
3 1/3
2 1/2
total = 10

10 returned for every 10 bet

I would start here
Sally

Mustangsally



Are you suggesting more than 59% of shooters make atleast 1 pass winner each time they
get the dice.



dicesetter

Quote: dicesitter

Mustangsally

yes

Quote: dicesitter

Are you suggesting more than 59% of shooters make atleast 1 pass winner each time they
get the dice.
dicesetter

no, the discussion so far is about point winners.
buts you are close

for no pass winners per shooter (come out roll or point winners) = 882/1980
at least 1 pass winner per shooter = 1098/1980 = 61/110 = abouts 55.45%
abouts the same chances of not rolling a Field on the next roll

example
The chances that the next 10 shooters will NOT hit one pass line winner (say all DIs and Grandma Pat)
or 0 winners = 10C0 * (61/110)^0 * (49/110)^10 = abouts 1 in 3251

has happened and will continue to happen

Sally

mustangsally




I played with both DI's and saw Grandma Pat, however in this question i did not
count a winner ... 7 or 11 on the come out, just points made after the
point is set.

I am not much concerned with the next 10 shooters. However, if i were going to play
a lay against the point ( for me it would be 5,6,8,9 only) i would damn sure want to know
what the table has been showing in terms of that ratio as well as had any of the players
been making a second point.

Dicesetter

Quote: dicesitter

i would damn sure want to know what the table has been showing in terms of that ratio as well as had any of the players
been making a second point.

Why would that matter, when ever roll is independent of the preceding ones?

Mrv




I am sure that it appears that way to you....


dicesetter

Dont get too caught up in the math. It is very important but the most important thing is that you understand what the best bets on the table are. If you want to play the passline then make sure you start out with a bankroll large enough to sustain five or six cold shooters. bet the minimum on the passline and then bet whatever you are comfortable with on the odds. youll never know if someone will shoot six times or 30 and even more. since you dont know that information start out with small bets and then as you increase your wins then bet more on the odds. If you want to gamble and bet max odds at the beginning you can do that as well but the more you bet in relation to your bankroll size the more volatile your game will be. if you can accept losing your bankroll in a few rolls then go for the max odds. but if you dont feel ready to bet maximum yet then bet only small amounts on the odds. it all depends on how you want to play the game. the house edge is something that plays out over millions of rolls so focus more on the volatility side of your game and focus on bankroll size, bet size, and how you wish to play. If you want to play with 300 or even more bring the whole amount to the table so you can ride out the swings. If you lose it or half of it then stop and dont worry about the math at this point. leave that to the professionals and just make the best bets. If you dont want to play max odds at first then just bet single odds. you control your game. no one else does. so have fun and good luck at the tables.

Quote: spadeknight

Dont get too caught up in the math. It is very important but the most important thing is that you understand what the best bets on the table are. If you want to play the passline then make sure you start out with a bankroll large enough to sustain five or six cold shooters. bet the minimum on the passline and then bet whatever you are comfortable with on the odds. youll never know if someone will shoot six times or 30 and even more. since you dont know that information start out with small bets and then as you increase your wins then bet more on the odds. If you want to gamble and bet max odds at the beginning you can do that as well but the more you bet in relation to your bankroll size the more volatile your game will be. if you can accept losing your bankroll in a few rolls then go for the max odds. but if you dont feel ready to bet maximum yet then bet only small amounts on the odds. it all depends on how you want to play the game. the house edge is something that plays out over millions of rolls so focus more on the volatility side of your game and focus on bankroll size, bet size, and how you wish to play. If you want to play with 300 or even more bring the whole amount to the table so you can ride out the swings. If you lose it or half of it then stop and dont worry about the math at this point. leave that to the professionals and just make the best bets. If you dont want to play max odds at first then just bet single odds. you control your game. no one else does. so have fun and good luck at the tables.

Good summation of a proper approach to have fun.

Quote: dicesitter

Mrv




I am sure that it appears that way to you....


dicesetter

Lol... are you claiming you can tell the difference in a few rolls whether the dice are random or now?

-----

thecesspit




Not at all, what i am saying is if you pay attention, there are things you can learn about the
the table you are playing on.

If you read these pages you see day in and day out..... you cant set the dice and make any
difference. so dont try . you cant read a table so dont try, it is a waste of time to record the rolls on
a table because what happened on the last 4 shooters has no bearing on the next four.. and on and on,
what ever a person suggests,.,..... it cant be done.

So my question is..... if you go to a table and watch 180 rolls in an evening, do you really think there is
going to be 5 2 & 12, 10 3 and 11, 15 4 & 10, 20 5 & 9, 25 6 & 8 and 30 7's every night, and the next night you go
back and have the same outcome, night after night.

That is not how the real world works and it is not how the game of craps works. In craps you make money when
the table does something that should not happen.... you have 7 pso in a row and Mustangsally makes alot of money,
you have an hour roll, you have 4 decent rolls in a row, you have three hard 4's during one roll. None of these could
happen if you just assumed the math is always the math. The guy that makes money is the one smart enough
to adjust his game to what is happening, not the one that sits back is blind to all around him except that he needs
bet the 6 & 8.

I understand you and others dont want the player to have any imput to the game of craps because it would burst the bubble
of most gamblers that want to blame their bad results on bad luck.



dicesetter

Quote: dicesitter

thecesspit

So my question is..... if you go to a table and watch 180 rolls in an evening, do you really think there is
going to be 5 2 & 12, 10 3 and 11, 15 4 & 10, 20 5 & 9, 25 6 & 8 and 30 7's every night, and the next night you go
back and have the same outcome, night after night.

That is not how the real world works and it is not how the game of craps works.

That's not even how mathematical models of randomness work, but never mind.

Quote:

None of these could happen if you just assumed the math is always the math.

Nonsense. I suggest you understand what the math is before you tell me that. Absolute nonsense. It shows you are arguing from a position of weakness when you don't understand what you are arguing against.

Quote:

I understand you and others dont want the player to have any imput to the game of craps because it would burst the bubble
of most gamblers that want to blame their bad results on bad luck.

dicesetter

Erm, it's because most gamblers have bad results as the game is set up for them to overall, on average... lose.

What you are claiming is that when something 'unusual' happens, it will continue to happen. But that's just the randomness, unusual things happen, but are no gurantor that they will continue. By saying that these things are destined and that charting is useful you ARE saying you can read patterns in short term results. I don't buy it, I've done enough study to not want to buy it, and it's nothing to do with my 'world imploding' or 'bubbles bursting'.

Maybe what you've found is different, but I'll stick with what I've seen, until someone shows proof, rather than hearsay and supposition.

After I drop a hammer on my foot three times, I figure gravity works. I don't need to keep dropping it to check. No matter how many times I am told I am not seeing the 'real' reality.

thecesspit




You welcome to question my math anyday, also welcome to think i speak from a position of
weakness, also welcome to believe the crap you have filled your head with.

The casino's love players that walk up to the table knowing they are going to lose, pay no
attention to anything. Actually i love it also, people like that pay for the very nice places
we get to play in. In terms of the hammer hitting your foot, may i suggest it hit some where
enough times to get you to beleive the game of craps 100% luck.


dicesetter

Quote: spadeknight

Dont get too caught up in the math.

I disagree. get caught up in the math. why? because it is fun!

Quote: spadeknight

It is very important but the most important thing is that you understand what the best bets on the table are.

I say it is fun.
best bets?
they are simply the ones that will win on the next roll

Quote: spadeknight

If you want to play the passline then make sure you start out with a bankroll large enough to sustain five or six cold shooters.

really?
I disagree because time (or number of bets to make is important too, yes???)

I say say have at least a bankroll to cover 5,000-6,000 cold shooters as they are the majority,
even ALL the DIs are cold most times (over 50%)

or just bet against these cold shooters, They are easy to pick out in a crowd around the craps table in my opinion.
less bankroll required and it grows much faster.
stay away from dont pass or don't come bets. major sucker bets in my opinions

Quote: spadeknight

bet the minimum on the passline <snip> <snip>

thank you for all these opinions
how many IFs did you have there?

you must be a computer programmer...


Buts
YOUR statement below is 100% WRONG and I will show why.
It also proves to me you are NOT a Craps expert, in my opinion (or maybe you are and are faking it - like the Big O)

Quote: spadeknight

the house edge is something that plays out over millions of rolls <snip> <snip>
<snip> <snip> <snip> <snip> <snip> <snip>

WRONG!!
ugh!
in other words, you are not correct

The house edge is there on every bet you make, every roll evens!

example and proof

Bet $100 on the 11
a one roll bet

chances to win = 2 (5,6 or 6,5 - even if you can't tell the difference)
chances to lose = 34
true odds against = 34 to 2 or 17 to 1

casinos pay 15 to 1 and some even 14 to 1 (in the US)

so you win and get paid $1500 ($1600 and down) and you think you are great!

sorry charlie... the house edge just got you on that one roll

you should have won $1700 ($1800 and down)
you were shorted on the payout by $200

you should see the house edge there.

ah, might still be just my opinion too
and that makes all craps players, even beginners - craps experts, maybe, exactly opposite of what Ahigh says
he also posted a photo of his wife, so he claims it is his wife
show us a vid with you and her as proof!

Sally heart Ahigh math
Sally no heart spadeknight many IFs
(do not take that personally)

Quote: NowTheSerpent

math math

However...

math math
math math
math math math math math math math math math math

thanks!
best sex I have had all month.

my husband says the month is not over yet!

YES!!
Sally Oh Sally

Quote: dicesitter

mustangsally

yes

Quote: dicesitter

<snip> <snip>However, if i were going to play
a lay against the point ( for me it would be 5,6,8,9 only)
i would damn sure want to know
what the table has been showing in terms of that ratio as well as had any of the players
been making a second point.

damn right.
buts seconds points do not scare me.
only those 12 points do, but by then I have switched sides and won big going with the trend.

"The trend is your friend"
should be the only way to beat the house edge in the long run
increase your damn winning percentages, I say
Oh Sally

SEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE.......


Some one gets it.....


Now i am not sure that is better than sex, but at my age i play craps more often than ....
come to think about it, i cant remember the last time i did anything other than craps.

Lets see, how long has Nixon been out of office, no cant be that long , what about Carter????


dicesetter

Are you delusional, dicesetter? Surely you don't believe in that nonsense about "charting a table", do you?

Quote: dicesitter

thecesspit

You welcome to question my math anyday, also welcome to think i speak from a position of
weakness, also welcome to believe the crap you have filled your head with.

What crap? That craps is a game of random results.

Quote:

The casino's love players that walk up to the table knowing they are going to lose, pay no
attention to anything.

I think they prefer folks who think they are going to win, and will keep chasing. Actually, they just want people to make bets... the rest will take care of itself. Most people don't know they will lose. They hope to win. Some, like me, may expect to lose more often than they win. But so there's no certainties here. Those who think there are (like exactly 30 7's in 180 rolls, which is still one of the biggest piles of nonsense you have come up with and claiming it to be the 'math') are going to be sadly disappointed.

Quote:

Actually i love it also, people like that pay for the very nice places
we get to play in. In terms of the hammer hitting your foot, may i suggest it hit some where
enough times to get you to beleive the game of craps 100% luck.

dicesetter

I don't need to apply blunt force trauma to my skull, cheers. I already believe the game of craps to be 100% luck. Or as near as dammit that for all intents that it is a random game. Someone one day may show that dice influence is possible, but until someone makes that mistake of showing proof, I'll stick with every roll being independent.

Why in the world would i think that paying attention with your money would make any difference
at all. Could it be 40 years of playing. or maybe seeing countless people walk up to a table with
a couple of thousand dollars, bet it all , not kn owing if anyone has made a point for an hour, losing it , then
walks away saying, when am i going to find a shooter.

Nah cant be that.


dicesetter

Quote: dicesitter

Why in the world would i think that paying attention with your money would make any difference
at all. Could it be 40 years of playing. or maybe seeing countless people walk up to a table with
a couple of thousand dollars, bet it all , not kn owing if anyone has made a point for an hour, losing it , then
walks away saying, when am i going to find a shooter.

Nah cant be that.


dicesetter

What ever helps you get through the night, mate.

What constitutes a win at craps? Double your initial bankroll? 10 times of that amount? What every craps player had to deal with is a question when should I walk away? Craps is addictive and as experience has shown players tend to quit when they win a substantial amount. How can you win big? You do it by betting props. Forget about the math for a moment, think of a psychology. Will you quit if $50 bet placed on12 wins? Probably, yes. Will you quit if $50 bet placed on 6 wins? Probably, no!

Quote: Dicenor33

What constitutes a win at craps? Double your initial bankroll? 10 times of that amount? What every craps player had to deal with is a question when should I walk away? Craps is addictive and as experience has shown players tend to quit when they win a substantial amount. How can you win big? You do it by betting props. Forget about the math for a moment, think of a psychology. Will you quit if $50 bet placed on12 wins? Probably, yes. Will you quit if $50 bet placed on 6 wins? Probably, no!

$0.25 at a table with $0.25 chips.

What bring people to three card poker? $50 win? Nope. It's a chance to hit straight flush. Why? It's the point which makes sense to stop playing, so do the jackpots, dragon, lucky ladies etc.

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Quote: dicesitter

SEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE.......


Some one gets it.....


Now i am not sure that is better than sex, but at my age i play craps more often than ....
come to think about it, i cant remember the last time i did anything other than craps.

Lets see, how long has Nixon been out of office, no cant be that long , what about Carter????


dicesetter

Mickeycrimm moment?

Unfortunately for Dice players, some counters can show a real edge in practice and on pepper. Card counting works in theory, mathematically and in practice.

DI, DS,DC, has no merit. Never will BC all craps is crap -EV no trends, no hot, no cold, just blind luck.

If your so confident in your skill or whatever, why care? Nike says, Just Do It.

Make it rain brother, Make it rain. Show us pic's of a cat rolling in cash.

thecesspit






I was not talking about dice influence or dice setting i was simply indicating that you should pay attention
when you play. That can be as simple as watching the table for a few minutes before you play. If you
are a dont better , are most shooters making a point or are they pso. It there alot of 6 & 8 being thrown
or 5 & 9's.

Now none of this means they will continiue to hit a number or PSO or throw 6 & 8.... craps is a random
game over-all, but even in a random game there can be and are periods of patterns. there are times ( not every night)
where the patterns can help you win some or avoid losing more.

Now patterns is a 100% certainty in craps, they happen and to sit there and suggest they dont exist is silly.

Now in this post i did not indicate anything about dice control or dice influence, just using your head.

If you want to discuss dice control or dice influence you will have to talk to someone else.

dicesetter

Quote:

i was simply indicating that you should pay attention when you play. ..... craps is a random game over-all, but even in a random game there can be and are periods of patterns. patterns is a 100% certainty in craps, they happen and to sit there and suggest they dont exist is silly.

"Patterns" and dice.

By George, I think he's got it.

Been hiding there in plain sight all along.



Patterns + The New Math = winnings!

Who knew?

Quote: dicesitter

thecesspit

I was not talking about dice influence or dice setting i was simply indicating that you should pay attention
when you play. That can be as simple as watching the table for a few minutes before you play. If you
are a dont better , are most shooters making a point or are they pso. It there alot of 6 & 8 being thrown
or 5 & 9's.

The patterns are in your head. Post-hoc patterns are meaningless if you believe the game to be random.

Quote:

Now none of this means they will continiue to hit a number or PSO or throw 6 & 8.... craps is a random
game over-all, but even in a random game there can be and are periods of patterns. there are times ( not every night)
where the patterns can help you win some or avoid losing more.

Now patterns is a 100% certainty in craps, they happen and to sit there and suggest they dont exist is silly.

I can imagine patterns in random data. Sure. Course I've seen them (a shooter roll's a 5 then a hardway four times in a row, for example). But they tell you nothing about the next roll of the dice. To pretend they have any meaning is still just nonsense. You might REALLY want it to mean something, to give yourself some power or control over the fickleness of the dice. You might decide to follow the patterns. Your EV is still the same. Nothing changes in your expectations, and your results.

You cannot however claim the game is random and then in the next sentence say there is meaning in the patterns to help your next bet. It's a fallacy. Random has a specific meaning, and the independence of events is part of that. There is no short term effect that disappears in the long term 'overall' in random data.

Quote:

Now in this post i did not indicate anything about dice control or dice influence, just using your head.

If I squint real hard at clouds, I can see images in them. Doesn't mean the images are there or have been put there by someone. It just means the mind is working hard to make sense of what it sees. It's super easy to trick the brain. Pareidolia is one name for this effect.

Quote:

If you want to discuss dice control or dice influence you will have to talk to someone else.

Sure thing. I don't really, cos it's a waste of time. Those who can aren't talking, and those who can't but think they can are deluding themselves or others. On that we agree.

Quote: thecesspit

if you believe the game to be random.

I believe wearing these sorts of socks pulled up high with shorts on is an enabler to disbelieve in random dice.

It worked for me!

Cuts off the blood supply, I suspect.

I don't mind people saying the game is not random... but if you say it's random, but then make a bunch of statements that break the axiom that the game is random, then, well... it don't make no sense.

Pure hogwash...........................



Here is an example....

Several weeks ago i was in upper Wisconsin playing on a 12 footer that is very bouncy...at any rate no was winning
anything including me, no decent rolls at all. 1 point next one a 7 next 1 number then pso... next one point and
then 7.

I noticed there were 8's as the number most often the point for a time and some 8 hard eights.

There is an old gentleman in a wheel chair that plays every weekend, he cant play very long, maybe
half hour, then he just watches. I have played with him a while and we spoke about the game often.

At any rate, at one point he was watching as well as he can from a stool next to his wheel chair. he nudged me,
and said you paying attention, i said i thought i was, he said your not on your game tonight, i said what am
i doing wrong.. he said hop the 8's soft and hard... i said i dont do that.. he said do it. Next come out i did and
i won.. Next was an out i guess and next shooter threw an 8 and he said did you win, i said no i was not on it. He was
not happy with me.... he said you should have been hopping the 8's on every roll now for 30 minutes, dont stop
until the trend stops.... i made over $200 on this over the next 30 minutes or so, i was even on a very bad table
and i quit. Not a single person on the table came close to being even..... i had seen the eights, but had not stopped
and thought what i could do..... this guy saw it much earlier that it did.

Now thecesspit, i could have been like you said to him, that is nonesense and forgot about it and went home
$200 in the hole.

Every night on almost every table things happen that are out of the ordinary, you can benefit from some of them from
time to time, or you can do as you say..... ignor them.

Its a choice.

Its not predicting any, it is meerly using the best information you have at the time.

It is silly your even questioning this.

Dicesetter

Quote: NewToCraps

How about a Place to Win number that the bet pays 6:5 (rather than that unusul 7:6 like the 6 or 8 of Craps) and the -ev is around 1% rather than 1.52% ?

That House Edge would be 0. The player's edge is likewise 0.

Quote: NewToCraps

Or a Place to Lose number that the bet pays 4:5 with th -ev around 1% ?

That's actually the standard payout (ev -1.818) for Place-to-Lose 6/8.

Quote: NewToCraps

I think I can get the -ev under your 0.33% with a Place to Lose number that the bet pays around 5:28 (sorry that it cost you so much, but a LOW -ev).

You're going the wrong way, bud. The two numbers need to be getting closer to equal, rather than getting further away from equal. Further, in my fantasy land, you could have the Payout exceed the Wager :)