Wizard's craps challenge

Quote: EvenBob

Don't do it, then. Why are you so concerned?
I'm very happy with this, keep using your
front pocket, that's very safe. lol

I'm not worried about it. I have not even came close to having a problem (other then a cop who lectured me). If you travel in an airport with lots of cash just bring a Tax form.

Bob i'm sure you might actually have some tinfoil hat followers, great minds think alike . So I'm more worried for them, someone dumb might take your advice and end up missing 5k or get it confiscated and held up for suspicious activity. Cash in drug bottles is suspicious activity and cause for further investigation, especially for Jury dodgers types.

PS Just get Slot tickets if you need to some give 180 days. I think you can even send them in.

Quote: AxelWolf

I'm not worried about it. I have not even came close to having a problem

Exactly, you have to have more than $500
to have a real problem. Someday..

Every time I go through airport security with cash, it ends up being in my hot little hand when they have taken everything but the cash from me. Visible or not, I'm not letting it get too far away.

Quote: EvenBob

Exactly, you have to have more than $500
to have a real problem. Someday..

Then I'm 100% safe.

Quote: Ahigh

Every time I go through airport security with cash, it ends up being in my hot little hand when they have taken everything but the cash from me. Visible or not, I'm not letting it get too far away.

It's hard to hold large amounts of cash. Pretend there is a craps play were they double the field numbers for the first 5 minutes each hr, at some off the beaten path casino. Not a good idea to be sending money Via the cage. You need Large amounts of cash.

Quote: odiousgambit

Now, it may be true that the impracticality of generating the number of throws is too much to overcome, especially if the DI effect is very small. I used to think that 10,000 rolls of the dice was a sufficient number of trials to show whether this or that was a good idea at the craps table, but after using Wincraps I realize it takes millions of rolls, and 100s of millions is not too far out.

Classical (frequentist) statistical analysis will never "prove" the die throws are "random".

A better approach is Bayesian inference, provided you know something about the bias the DI is supposedly introducing.

Please let us know if some poor schlub trys to beat you in this challenge. I know that no one can win it but it would be fun to see someone try.

Quote: spadeknight

Please let us know if some poor schlub trys to beat you in this challenge. I know that no one can win it but it would be fun to see someone try.

Hey welcome to the forum! Since you are new, I advise you to read the forum rules!

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/info/rules/2-forum-rules/#post37215

Given a sufficiently small number of rolls, the challenge is easily beaten by pure luck. Similarly, I also demonstrated you can get your ass handed to you very quickly with bad luck.

This is a great place to learn stuff, so I'm sure you will enjoy reading more in the future if you choose.

Quote: Ahigh

Hey welcome to the forum! Since you are new, I advise you to read the forum rules!

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/info/rules/2-forum-rules/#post37215

Given a sufficiently small number of rolls, the challenge is easily beaten by pure luck. Similarly, I also demonstrated you can get your ass handed to you very quickly with bad luck.

This is a great place to learn stuff, so I'm sure you will enjoy reading more in the future if you choose.

New?

Quote: AlanMendelson

As far as the Wizard's challenge goes, a random roller who got lucky might bankrupt the Wizard.

Mike is a pretty smart guy. I am guessing if he proposed this wager (a way more accurate term than challenge), with the exact dollar figures at risk, and him knowing his exact advantage, that he has the bankroll to not go bankrupt.... that Kelley criterion thing.... Of course over any defined number of rolls he may well lose.... these will be bets.... just each bet he will be at an advantage...

Quote: SOOPOO

Mike is a pretty smart guy.... just each bet he will be at an advantage...

well, geez, what does his signature line say? you know, if you could make all your bets at 1.67% edge and kept to Kelly, pushing as hard as Kelly and opponents would let you, you would live very well indeed.

Quote: odiousgambit

well, geez, what does his signature line say? you know, if you could make all your bets at 1.67% edge and kept to Kelly, pushing as hard as Kelly and opponents would let you, you would live very well indeed.

and the Wizard of course
did not have that 1.67% advantage as Ahigh did not do the OP challenge

The Wizard looks like he enjoyed a
1/6 * 1/46 = 1/294 edge (0.003401361 or 0.3401361%) he bet 49 to win 10

and a
16 and 2/3 CENT EV per roll

not really much to write home about and I would bet $5 he did not even tell his wife about it right after it happened.
Looks like the challenge was just all for fun!
Sally

The Wizard also tipped more than ten dollars to the dealers (as did I) which was a bigger disadvantage than his advantage (and doubled my disadvantage).

Then the Wizard bought me a drink at the 777 pub afterwards that probably cost almost ten dollars.

Factoring in the drink I got, we both were at the same disadvantage for the evening.

If everything else had remained the same except my talking him into reversing the side of the bet he was on, it would have appeared that I influenced the dice to many people. But not to the Wizard and not to me as we both agreed ahead of time the whole event was just for fun and wasn't going to prove a darn thing.

Quote: Ahigh

If everything else had remained the same except my talking him into reversing the side of the bet he was on, it would have appeared that I influenced the dice to many people. But not to the Wizard and not to me as we both agreed ahead of time the whole event was just for fun and wasn't going to prove a darn thing.

I see in your Blog you documented over 3k rolls and showed about a 6.5 SRR so betting that you would roll more 7s seemed a change of pace

it seems to me you broke Jimmy Page's #2 gambling commandment that reads (from LZ4 newest release)
"Thou shalt be consistent in thy betting selection"

and I think you might have broken #1 too if you gambled with your own money
shhhh

oh well
can't wins them all

fun is spelled
F U N
for a reason
Sally

Thanks for the heads up. just read them.

Quote: Ahigh

The Wizard also tipped more than ten dollars to the dealers (as did I) which was a bigger disadvantage than his advantage (and doubled my disadvantage).

Then the Wizard bought me a drink at the 777 pub afterwards that probably cost almost ten dollars.

Factoring in the drink I got, we both were at the same disadvantage for the evening.

Do you "advantage players" factor in tips and the cost of a drink? Tough business you're in.

Quote: mustangsally

and the Wizard of course
did not have that 1.67% advantage as Ahigh did not do the OP challenge

I really completely missed that the bet was altered not only in amount, but "sides" so to speak.

but that ev= bet * edge equation is sticking with me!

Quote: AlanMendelson

Do you "advantage players" factor in tips and the cost of a drink? Tough business you're in.

I know us regular gamblers look for advantage plays on drinks. A $1 tip for a red bull in a can is still something that can be had.

I actually received this ($0.50 advantage play giving a $1 tip for a $1.50 drink) on one occasion during the evening. Red Bull no ice, no problem.

I also had this no problem at the Flamingo Yesterday. They recently added bonus craps feature bets and went to double on the 12 in the field.

If you like energy drinks $0.50 advantage play per drink is good for 25 minutes on average with $5 pass and odds.

Quote: AlanMendelson

Do you "advantage players" factor in tips and the cost of a drink? Tough business you're in.

I admit it's pretty funny, but there's a certain amount of satisfaction in basically paying for your drinks with your EV. Yep maybe even coming out ahead.

But I think it is calculated more by the recreational players than the APs. If I was an AP, and I'm not, I wouldnt drink [alcohol].

Quote: Ahigh

I also had this no problem at the Flamingo Yesterday. They recently added bonus craps feature bets and went to double on the 12 in the field.

Which bonus bets did they add? They've had the fire bet for ages.

With respect to doubling 12 in the field, Flamingo has been that way for as long as I've been coming to Vegas (back to 2010). All CET casinos in Vegas except Caesars Palace have the stingy field bet.

Quote: AcesAndEights

Which bonus bets did they add? They've had the fire bet for ages.

With respect to doubling 12 in the field, Flamingo has been that way for as long as I've been coming to Vegas (back to 2010). All CET casinos in Vegas except Caesars Palace have the stingy field bet.

"Bonus Craps" is the official name of the Small/Tall/All bets.

Quote: wudged

Quote: AcesAndEights

Which bonus bets did they add? They've had the fire bet for ages.

With respect to doubling 12 in the field, Flamingo has been that way for as long as I've been coming to Vegas (back to 2010). All CET casinos in Vegas except Caesars Palace have the stingy field bet.

"Bonus Craps" is the official name of the Small/Tall/All bets.

Ah, I suspected that given Ahigh used the term "Feature bets" which I've also heard to refer to the all/tall/small.

So, I'm assuming then that Flamingo replaced the fire bet with the all/tall/small? That would be a pretty big change. The fire bet gets pretty heavy action everywhere I've seen it...anecdotally I suppose. Maybe the all/tall/small are winning more for the casinos.

Quote: Ahigh

The Wizard also tipped more than ten dollars to the dealers (as did I) which was a bigger disadvantage than his advantage (and doubled my disadvantage).

Then the Wizard bought me a drink at the 777 pub afterwards that probably cost almost ten dollars.

Factoring in the drink I got, we both were at the same disadvantage for the evening.

If everything else had remained the same except my talking him into reversing the side of the bet he was on, it would have appeared that I influenced the dice to many people. But not to the Wizard and not to me as we both agreed ahead of time the whole event was just for fun and wasn't going to prove a darn thing.

Not sure what you are saying here. I's like you are trying to take away the fact Mike had an advantage over you because he bought you a drink. Buying someone a drink as NOTING to do with the advantage one has. What you do with your earn from an advantage is a personal choice what e did is no different then treating a friend to a movie.

You don't even have to play to get free drinks. So I don't think you can add it in as value if you can get it for free. I will play something at the bar that's -EV to get drinks but i don't count it as +EV. Me and AX ad a few drinks the other night, had we paid for it, it would ave been over $150 probably lost $20 in EV at the bar. I cant go around slaying we made $130.

My experience has been that the Fire bet gets very little action everywhere. At Caesars the veteran dealers don't even promote it.

Quote: AxelWolf

Not sure what you are saying here. I's like you are trying to take away the fact Mike had an advantage over you because he bought you a drink. Buying someone a drink as NOTING to do with the advantage one has. What you do with your earn from an advantage is a personal choice what e did is no different then treating a friend to a movie.

You don't even have to play to get free drinks. So I don't think you can add it in as value if you can get it for free. I will play something at the bar that's -EV to get drinks but i don't count it as +EV. Me and AX ad a few drinks the other night, had we paid for it, it would ave been over $150 probably lost $20 in EV at the bar. I cant go around slaying we made $130.

You seem to be inferring too much from the word "disadvantage." I think you are the one who is confused.

Giving money away is a monetary disadvantage to the person giving it away.

I know because I do it a lot.

Trust me.

Quote: AlanMendelson

My experience has been that the Fire bet gets very little action everywhere. At Caesars the veteran dealers don't even promote it.

Alan, SuperRick can make some pointed arguments, but you have to realize that Caesar's is not a typical craps pit at all. Making broad generalizations about the game of craps based on your experience at Caesar's doesn't really help give credibility to your other arguments.

Some unusual facts about Caesar's craps pits:

* There are no fewer than FOUR different types of back walls (next in line is two, and those that have two rarely operate more than one [EG: Main Street Station]).
* There is not a single craps table in operation in the state of Nevada that has the same physical geometry of Caesar's craps tables (it's not squared off)
* The limit is $50,000 on bets there ($5,000 is the next highest, and there are many more at $300, $500, $1,000 $2,000 and $3,000). Even the Cromwell is $3,000
* The dealers wear GOLD CHAINS for Christs' sake

I could go on. But pointing out facts about Caesar's and expecting other casinos to be similar to Caesar's is just getting old.

For a local, it takes about 30 minutes of WALKING just to get to that pit unless you Valet. It's not a place for someone in a car. It is engineered to create a tourist BUBBLE REALITY for high rollers in the pit and not to attract repeat players driving up with $100 to $500 bankrolls.

In general, fire bets and "feature bets" get more action the lower the table limit.

At Jerry's Nugget, there's a dealer named Sam who gave me a long story about how they ruined the game because all they play is the all-tall all-small on that table.

And they do.

I dare you to go to Jerry's Nugget on a Friday night or Saturday night and compare it to Caesar's Palace.

Quote: AlanMendelson

My experience has been that the Fire bet gets very little action everywhere. At Caesars the veteran dealers don't even promote it.

I've been really giving my Harrah's dealers and pit personnel a hard time because they have a side bet (Fire Bet) that blows. Some of them even join me in keeping imaginary score on the ATS that is not there. No 2 or 12 goes by unremarked. My observation on my 2nd 12 in a series is that I'm just showing off!

Quote: AcesAndEights

Maybe the all/tall/small are winning more for the casinos.

About 1/3 the vig of the Fire Bet. 100x more fun.

Quote: DeMango

About 1/3 the vig of the Fire Bet. 100x more fun.

It's more fair to look at the edge per roll. Fire bets last longer. But they are still higher, just not three times as high.

The random event you're betting on is the roll of the dice. Judging one bet from another bet only as "per resolved" is a limited way to dissect the game in my opinion and is an unfair comparison assuming you are betting more than one bet at a time.

Quote: Ahigh

I know us regular gamblers look for ...

Sure glad you weren't one of the Founding Fathers.
We could've ended up with our Constitution beginning "Us the People..."

Does this sound right? "I know us regular gamblers look for ..."
Does this sound right? "I know we regular gamblers look for ..."

Does this sound right? "I know us look for ..."
Does this sound right? "I know we look for ..."