Wizard's craps challenge
August 11th, 2014 at 11:38:00 AM
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Quote: AhighMichael,
Where are you proposing that the challenge take place? Will you do $10 and $49 and let the shooter try to hit a seven? Will you be present for the rolls if I accept the challenge? Is there a minimum and maximum number of rolls or a minimum and maximum multiple for the offer amount, or are the amounts pre-defined?
Anywhere downtown. I'll take your 10/49 suggestion if I'm laying the 49 on a 7 and getting 10 on the non-sevens. Assuming you'll bet it the other way, I'll address the questions on amounts and number of rolls.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
August 11th, 2014 at 11:42:19 AM
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is exactly $50 bad luck or something? [g]
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
August 11th, 2014 at 12:24:48 PM
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Quote: WizardAnywhere downtown. I'll take your 10/49 suggestion if I'm laying the 49 on a 7 and getting 10 on the non-sevens. Assuming you'll bet it the other way, I'll address the questions on amounts and number of rolls.
Maybe the crapless table at the Plaza would work. Seems appropriate since we're talking about overcoming high edges with attempts at skilled shooting.
A $5 crapless table is probably better than a $15 table to keep onlookers at a distance at the same price anyway.
aahigh.com
August 11th, 2014 at 12:47:16 PM
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if bad = 0 then yesQuote: odiousgambitis exactly $50 bad luck or something? [g]
BTW, nice math work earlier
try this out
((x+1)*p)-1
another house edge formula
x = 10/51 = payout ratio
p = 5/6
I have heard that having $50 bills in a casino is bad luck
I keep my 2 at home for casino trips
seems to work for me
my bankroll keeps going up when I do not have these $50 bills with me
yes I do have other denominations
only 2 $1 bills
but 151 $100 bills close to me
I collect both colors too
funny, I would think that much cash would be much higher
only 2 $1 bills
but 151 $100 bills close to me
I collect both colors too
funny, I would think that much cash would be much higher
Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
August 11th, 2014 at 1:18:48 PM
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Quote: AhighMaybe the crapless table at the Plaza would work. Seems appropriate since we're talking about overcoming high edges with attempts at skilled shooting.
A $5 crapless table is probably better than a $15 table to keep onlookers at a distance at the same price anyway.
I was banned from gambling on everything at the Plaza but doubt they remember.
Hope to see you at the McNugget Challenge (just under four hours to go) and we can discuss the details. Or we can always do it another time.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
August 11th, 2014 at 1:51:20 PM
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A bank envelope with 10k fits nicely into a shirt pocket. The other day, the lady at the cage asked me if I would please take a stack of 50s in payment. No, it wasn't 10k. I almost got the feeling she was begging me to take them although she declined my offer to purchase them for $45 each.
Many people, especially ignorant people, want to punish you for speaking the truth. - Mahatma Ghandi
August 11th, 2014 at 2:00:47 PM
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Quote: 1BBA bank envelope with 10k fits nicely into a shirt pocket..
You can easily carry $200K in a medium purse
if the bills are new. You can roll $5000 up to
fit into the average prescription bottle that's
3" high and 1 1/2" across. I used to carry
it that way. Somebody here doubted it till
they tried it and saw I was correct.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
August 11th, 2014 at 2:02:13 PM
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I know we can be anonymous here, and I suppose you, Sally, have maintained that, but I never mention to anyone how much cash I might have. I imagine gamblers keep a lot around generally; it's a pain to deposit it, then withdraw it.
I have been keeping 50s on me lately, a close local place that sells ethanol-free gas at a reasonable price only takes cash, and it is almost that much now to fill up if near empty.
I have been keeping 50s on me lately, a close local place that sells ethanol-free gas at a reasonable price only takes cash, and it is almost that much now to fill up if near empty.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
August 11th, 2014 at 2:11:35 PM
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Quote: WizardI was banned from gambling on everything at the Plaza but doubt they remember.
Hope to see you at the McNugget Challenge (just under four hours to go) and we can discuss the details. Or we can always do it another time.
Alright, it will be fun to see if I can stick you or not with that high of an edge per roll. An any-seven bet that is at a 90% discount almost sounds like a good deal.
aahigh.com
August 11th, 2014 at 4:01:21 PM
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I get that bank tellers might not be aware of the superstition regarding the fifties, but it was my understanding that casino cage critters are trained to never give out fifties, unless a player asks for them.Quote: 1BBThe other day, the lady at the cage asked me if I would please take a stack of 50s in payment.
True. I'm currently building my bankroll. I have $1,900 in a bottle that size. Plenty of room in it. $5K should be no problem.Quote: EvenBobYou can roll $5000 up to
fit into the average prescription bottle that's
3" high and 1 1/2" across.
I invented a few casino games. Info:
http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ —————————————————————————————————————
Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
August 11th, 2014 at 4:08:45 PM
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Apparently people don't know thieves also target prescription durgs. Very bad idea.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
August 11th, 2014 at 5:36:02 PM
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Quote: AxelWolfApparently people don't know thieves also target prescription durgs. Very bad idea.
I was thinking exactly the same thing. The Tylenol bottle may be safe, but my Oxycontin bottle will surely be stolen.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
August 11th, 2014 at 9:04:32 PM
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An update on the challenge. We agreed that I would lose $10 on any non-seven and Wizard lost $49 on sevens.
During the challenge, I rolled 80 non-sevens and 9 sevens (a RSR of 9.88)
$800 - $441 = $359 net profit for the Wizard (and/or losses for me).
I also lost a $50 bet that the cocktail waitress would know what a perfect game of bowling would be. $40 to Wizard and $10 to Axel.
Total losses for the night to WOV members for me were $409.
I came to the table with $1800 and left with $1470. I tipped $10 for the evening.
$1800 - 10 - 409 = $89
$89 profit from casino
$10 tip
$10 lost to Axel
$399 lost to Wizard
==============
$330 loss for the evening
I actually won $25 before I met up with the Wizard at the D. So my total loss for the evening was closer to $300.
Although we were not tracking it specifically, I think I rolled 35 times with no seven at all (while trying to roll a seven). An abysmal failure to control the dice in a way that I wanted. There is no evidence at all of any control, but if there were control, it was in the opposite of the intended direction. This is a point that many people fail to realize that just having control is not helpful if you're doing it wrong. You have have to have a favorable result!
I did have fun and was black-chip betting the lay bets (with Vig up front). There was one point where the Wizard only had $4 from me and I was up $75 from wins on the casino that I could have stopped. But there was no point where the Wizard was losing money to me .. ever. He was up on my over $100 before I got it down to four, then I want on that run that led to massive losses with no seven in sight.
During the challenge, I rolled 80 non-sevens and 9 sevens (a RSR of 9.88)
$800 - $441 = $359 net profit for the Wizard (and/or losses for me).
I also lost a $50 bet that the cocktail waitress would know what a perfect game of bowling would be. $40 to Wizard and $10 to Axel.
Total losses for the night to WOV members for me were $409.
I came to the table with $1800 and left with $1470. I tipped $10 for the evening.
$1800 - 10 - 409 = $89
$89 profit from casino
$10 tip
$10 lost to Axel
$399 lost to Wizard
==============
$330 loss for the evening
I actually won $25 before I met up with the Wizard at the D. So my total loss for the evening was closer to $300.
Although we were not tracking it specifically, I think I rolled 35 times with no seven at all (while trying to roll a seven). An abysmal failure to control the dice in a way that I wanted. There is no evidence at all of any control, but if there were control, it was in the opposite of the intended direction. This is a point that many people fail to realize that just having control is not helpful if you're doing it wrong. You have have to have a favorable result!
I did have fun and was black-chip betting the lay bets (with Vig up front). There was one point where the Wizard only had $4 from me and I was up $75 from wins on the casino that I could have stopped. But there was no point where the Wizard was losing money to me .. ever. He was up on my over $100 before I got it down to four, then I want on that run that led to massive losses with no seven in sight.
aahigh.com
August 11th, 2014 at 10:34:44 PM
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Thanks for the update Ahigh. Did any members bet the rightway during your rolls? A shame if a 35 roll hand didn't make someone some money...
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
August 11th, 2014 at 10:52:34 PM
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Quote: AyecarumbaThanks for the update Ahigh. Did any members bet the rightway during your rolls? A shame if a 35 roll hand didn't make someone some money...
My last roll was a winner on the pass line and I had already told Michael congrats and I'm done. I won $5 pass and $25 odds on a six point on that roll just decompressing a bit. Then I passed the dice and some guy freaked out. So a few minutes later the guy physically taps me on the shoulder and asks if I am going to shoot again. I thought he wanted my spot, actually, and I said, "probably" in a way that indicated that I did not appreciate the way that he approached and tapped on me and that I wasn't moving for him (it was rude how he did it).
The dealers were all shocked how he approached me and appeared to want to apologize for the whole thing. I didn't try to figure out at the time what his deal was, but I think he made some money on that long ass roll and was hoping I would keep shooting. When I rolled another winner and passed the dice I think he freaked out wanting more and more and more.
The Wizard also lost overall as he was betting the don't pass to sort of hedge against having to pay me for sevens. In other words, he lost more money betting $5 and $30 lay odds on continuous come bets than he won $10 per roll for non-sevens.
So there were no session winners for ANYONE.
I won a $150 lay on the point of five. And I won $100 lay on the four and $100 lay on the ten, and I think I won several lay bets that were in the range of $30 to $90 as well. But I lost a few lays bets (none over $100 though). I came out ahead on my bets, just not on the challenge. Multiple times I pressed up the lay bets after not rolling a seven and finally rolled the seven out to win $100 or more.
$300 loss is not a huge loss for me, and it was fun. I regret making a $50 bet about the cocktail waitress knowing what a perfect game of bowling is, but I bet a $100 DC after that on the next shooter and got lucky on that. So I feel like my "random bets" which those were the only two wild-ass random bets I made, I came out ahead.
But it was a miserable crash and burn on attempting to roll a bunch of sevens.
aahigh.com
August 11th, 2014 at 11:02:35 PM
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FYI not that it matters but before wiz got there I believe I had counted 33 non sevens and seven sevens, no pun intended.
August 11th, 2014 at 11:08:02 PM
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Yeah, that's about average. If any control was present (and I doubt there was) I should have used a hardway set instead of a seven set. I never changed my set or made adjustments of any kind during the session. I was setting 3641 for every roll and trying to roll a seven on each and every roll. The first 45 rolls were average. IE: after 45 rolls, the Wizard was only winning $4. As soon as Axel showed up, that's when I could not win a single thing. During this same time, Axel was talking the Wizard's ear off and the Wizard was not even paying attention to the rolls at all.
Axel also asked in the middle of the competition if he could get action. I said no. He also asked what the results were and wanted to know all sorts of information in the middle asking both me and the Wizard a bunch of questions.
I don't expect Axel to know anything about craps (he had his hand down in the bowl when another shooter got the dice). But there was some synchronicity with him showing up and me going from being up $100 overall to being down $300 overall in 30 rolls (IE: going on a super long losing streak that wouldn't quit).
Craps is a game where the shooter finds someone or something else to blame. And if I were a superstitious player, I definitely would be blaming Axel.
Of course I am not superstitious. So Axel was merely a distraction and not a cause. But I did get a little miffed at one point throwing $50 for the cocktail waitress bet at which point I got chastised by the Wizard saying "you always do that..."
Often $300 is a single bet for me though, so hopefully this was just a bump in the road.
Axel also asked in the middle of the competition if he could get action. I said no. He also asked what the results were and wanted to know all sorts of information in the middle asking both me and the Wizard a bunch of questions.
I don't expect Axel to know anything about craps (he had his hand down in the bowl when another shooter got the dice). But there was some synchronicity with him showing up and me going from being up $100 overall to being down $300 overall in 30 rolls (IE: going on a super long losing streak that wouldn't quit).
Craps is a game where the shooter finds someone or something else to blame. And if I were a superstitious player, I definitely would be blaming Axel.
Of course I am not superstitious. So Axel was merely a distraction and not a cause. But I did get a little miffed at one point throwing $50 for the cocktail waitress bet at which point I got chastised by the Wizard saying "you always do that..."
Often $300 is a single bet for me though, so hopefully this was just a bump in the road.
aahigh.com
August 12th, 2014 at 12:29:58 AM
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It's pretty funny that anyone would think how he sets the dice would have any effect whatsoever on the numbers rolled on legal craps throws.
It's amazing the power of confirmation bias. You could just as easily believe you throw more sevens when wearing your white sneakers.
The human mind is simply not equipped to evaluate randomness, that much is certain. But it's still shocking how someone could know the math behind dice and still accept a wager that pays 4.9 to 1 on rolling a seven.
It's amazing the power of confirmation bias. You could just as easily believe you throw more sevens when wearing your white sneakers.
The human mind is simply not equipped to evaluate randomness, that much is certain. But it's still shocking how someone could know the math behind dice and still accept a wager that pays 4.9 to 1 on rolling a seven.
August 12th, 2014 at 3:15:12 AM
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We need confirmation, from the horse's mouth, that the Wizard actually violated one of his 10 Commandments!
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
August 12th, 2014 at 3:24:38 AM
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Ah, it's not just my imagination :-)Quote: odiousgambit
*your comments often puzzle me
August 12th, 2014 at 5:50:29 AM
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#7 of the 10 Commandments
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
August 12th, 2014 at 6:15:05 AM
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Quote: sodawaterBut it's still shocking how someone could know the math behind dice and still accept a wager that pays 4.9 to 1 on rolling a seven.
What's shocking to me is how disrespectful and arrogant some individuals can be when they think that they know more than they actually do about something.
aahigh.com
August 12th, 2014 at 6:34:28 AM
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Quote: odiousgambitWe need confirmation, from the horse's mouth, that the Wizard actually violated one of his 10 Commandments!
It is true I was betting the don't pass and usually two don't come bets, all with full odds. They were negatively correlated to the ahigh bets, but not a perfect hedge. I usually bet the don't side anyway for the lower house edge.
When I say "don't hedge your bets" I mean don't take out high house edge bets to protect yourself, like taking even money on a blackjack. The way I view this is I was minimizing the house edge on the table and controlling, but not eliminating variance overall.
So, as ahigh said, he rolled 9 sevens in 89 rolls. Keep in mind he was trying to roll sevens. The odds of 9 or less in 89 rolls is 5.83%.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
August 12th, 2014 at 6:36:16 AM
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Quote: odiousgambit#7 of the 10 Commandments
I can confirm that he was TRYING to hedge. He failed to do so because the roll was so good he lost more in lay odds than he made from non-sevens. He had several rolls with net $25 losses with +$10 from me and -$35 from the house.
The Wizard told me that he lost for the evening as well on the craps table taking into consideration the money he won from me, he lost more on the don't pass.
I absolutely got the highest rating from the house (I took very few free bets) and I won against the house with my bets. I don't know what the Wizard's net loss was for the evening, but I believe mine was slightly larger, but possibly not by much. He had a lot on his mind at the time, and I don't think he has the exact dollar figure for his wins/losses.
aahigh.com
August 12th, 2014 at 6:45:54 AM
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that's what you get for hedging, BUT
It does occur to me that the Wizard had the edge, thus it is not the same as hedging in negative expectation. Maybe it should have another name besides hedging in the circumstances.
If Michael had hedged a negative expectation bet, I would have given him as much grief as I *dared*. The guy does have that nuclear option [g]
It does occur to me that the Wizard had the edge, thus it is not the same as hedging in negative expectation. Maybe it should have another name besides hedging in the circumstances.
If Michael had hedged a negative expectation bet, I would have given him as much grief as I *dared*. The guy does have that nuclear option [g]
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
August 12th, 2014 at 6:53:58 AM
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Quote: odiousgambitthat's what you get for hedging, BUT
It does occur to me that the Wizard had the edge, thus it is not the same as hedging in negative expectation. Maybe it should have another name besides hedging in the circumstances.
If Michael had hedged a negative expectation bet, I would have given him as much grief as I dared. The guy does have that nuclear option [g]
He made a lot more money getting lucky than he did from the edge. The focus on hedging and the 1.6% edge per roll that he had is absolutely comical for me. It was also comical to me how few people at the table knew much about how the game of craps worked while we were holding this event.
I've been at the Gold Coast for Rodeos where there were tables full of cowboys who knew more about the game.
I enjoyed the game. The side bets with cocktail waitresses and the focus on trivia I did not enjoy at all. Nor did I enjoy the discussion at the triple seven brew pub.
People are different. I don't like trivia. I don't like alcohol (my step kids' real father has a few issues with alcohol). I did enjoy the game of craps. I was more than happy to have the Wizard win and I told him up front it would be fun if I went down in flames and that I wanted him to have fun.
I didn't see the Wizard having as much fun as me during the actual game (from the game of craps anyway).
I told him I wanted him to have fun. I honestly don't think he had as much fun as I did with the game of craps and seemed very distracted by playing trivia when I thought it would have been more entertaining for me if he was focusing on the game of craps instead of trivia questions with Axel.
The entire time I was losing on the final downward streak from -$4 to -$360, the Wizard was interacting with Axel instead of with me. Axel came up and got directly between me and the Wizard at the beginning of my losing streak with the Wizard's challenge.
Everyone else may have been focusing on the 1.67% house edge and whether the Wizard's betting patterns were a hedge. I was focusing on trying to have fun. It was hard for me to have fun once Axel showed up.
37 rolls where one of them was a seven while listening to the stuff I was listening to (unrelated to craps) just wasn't as much fun as if people were rooting for numbers and jabbing at me for being unable to roll a seven.
That fact (that I illustrate above) is FAR more important to me than $9.
People are different.
aahigh.com
August 12th, 2014 at 7:16:04 AM
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Quote: odiousgambitIt does occur to me that the Wizard had the edge
The Wizard tipped more than his edge to the crew. Big picture, guys. We were there to have fun.
It always makes me laugh to see people making sure to take maximum odds and then tip 100x their savings on the odds bets before they leave.
I tip more when I win, and although I get harassed for my tip levels, that crew that dealt to me last night has received a $140-$190 dealer hand-in from me in the past (I forgot how much it was, but somewhere in that range).
That's enough money for a heck of a lot of rolls and lots of play. And I got lucky and won all but $25 back after I gave them the hand-in (I had just got there when I gave them the hand-in).
How many people on this forum that are talking about $0.16 edge per roll for 89 total rolls being too high have handed in more than $100 to a craps crew before? I'm talking straight off the rail, to the dealers. My entire rail of chips went to the crew.
aahigh.com
August 12th, 2014 at 7:27:47 AM
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Quote: AhighThe Wizard tipped more than his edge to the crew. Big picture, guys. We were there to have fun.
Agreed.
I hadn't played craps in a long time and twice had to be rebuked for letting my bottle of beer touch the rail. So I promised to tip a $5 fine each time I did it again.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
August 12th, 2014 at 7:43:22 AM
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I was called in as a cooler (If anyone is hiring)Quote: AhighThe first 45 rolls were average. IE: after 45 rolls, the Wizard was only winning $4. As soon as Axel showed up, that's when I could not win a single thing. .
I have no clue how much Mike was up or down overall when I got there but as far as the prop bet was concerned you were already down a bundle seemingly to the point of no return. The section where you were keeping tally with was rich in chips. I remember thinking how is that even possible. You had not yet to roll a 7 on a long roll I think everyone said.
To be clear we were discussing how close you could keep the dice to the back wall and I pointed to a spot(hand in the bowl) on the table before the shooter started shooting.
DI, If at all possible it's certainly not going to happen with the dice bouncing off the back wall and rolling 18" or whatever.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
August 12th, 2014 at 9:12:26 AM
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Are you sure you didn't mean this : I thought it would have been more entertaining for me if he was focusing on ME and my craps abilities.Quote: Ahigh
I enjoyed the game. The side bets with cocktail waitresses and the focus on trivia I did not enjoy at all. Nor did I enjoy the discussion at the triple seven brew pub.
I didn't see the Wizard having as much fun as me during the actual game (from the game of craps anyway).
I told him I wanted him to have fun. I honestly don't think he had as much fun as I did with the game of craps and seemed very distracted by playing trivia when I thought it would have been more entertaining for me if he was focusing on the game of craps instead of trivia questions with Axel.
This was a light day for prop bets, everyone else really seemed to enjoy that part.
I don't think Mike enjoys craps all that much.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
August 12th, 2014 at 9:37:08 AM
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Quote: AxelWolfI don't think Mike enjoys craps all that much.
I don't. Never liked the game much. I prefer games of strategy and I'm a little uncomfortable with the excessive exuberance many players display. Usually when I gamble I just want to concentrate and mostly be left alone.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
August 12th, 2014 at 5:52:25 PM
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Quote: DJTeddyBear
True. I'm currently building my bankroll. I have $1,900 in a bottle that size. Plenty of room in it. $5K should be no problem.
When you have $5K in the bottle, 10 out
of 10 people you show it to will say no
way. It doesn't look possible.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
August 12th, 2014 at 6:07:44 PM
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they are really thinking no way, why would anyone in their right mind do that.Quote: EvenBobWhen you have $5K in the bottle, 10 out
of 10 people you show it to will say no
way. It doesn't look possible.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
August 12th, 2014 at 9:37:43 PM
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Okay, maybe not an Rx bottle, especially not one that says something like "Oxycodone." So how many rolled-up Benjamins could I stuff into a couple of these? Would a 10k brick fit?
They're only $12.95 for a pack of four. But I might need a story for going through airports, since I don't have the anatomical plumbing usually associated with these, and I wouldn't want to leave them in checked baggage after stuffing them.
They're only $12.95 for a pack of four. But I might need a story for going through airports, since I don't have the anatomical plumbing usually associated with these, and I wouldn't want to leave them in checked baggage after stuffing them.
Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.
August 12th, 2014 at 9:47:44 PM
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it always amazes me what people come up with. including members.Quote: DrawingDeadOkay, maybe not an Rx bottle, especially not one that says "Oxycodone." So how many rolled-up Benjamins could I stuff into a couple of these? Would a 10k brick fit?
They're only $12.95 for a pack of four. But I might need a story for going through airports, since I don't have the anatomical plumbing usually associated with these, and I wouldn't want to leave them in checked baggage after stuffing them.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
August 13th, 2014 at 3:47:39 AM
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Quote: NareedI wish I could get $100 k together, or someone to sponsor for such an amount, and conduct a real, controlled test of DI. But no one else seems to care about it. With $100,000 awarded to anyone who can prove they can influence the dice well past what random chance says the results should be (if I may grossly oversimplify).
Suppose I were to put up the $100,000... how would you determine what was an influenced roll and what was just random luck that a seven wasn't rolled? I see random shooters all the time in casinos with monster seven to rolls ratios. But they aren't influencing the dice -- they're just lucky.
Sorry, but to test or challenge the claims of DI you will have to determine what is DI and the end result of the dice wouldn't be it.
As far as the Wizard's challenge goes, a random roller who got lucky might bankrupt the Wizard.
August 13th, 2014 at 4:53:32 AM
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Quote: AlanMendelsonto test or challenge the claims of DI you will have to determine what is DI and the end result of the dice wouldn't be it.
I think you have made some good points in this regard, but fact is there is a certain point at which the law of large numbers will take charge.
Now, it may be true that the impracticality of generating the number of throws is too much to overcome, especially if the DI effect is very small. I used to think that 10,000 rolls of the dice was a sufficient number of trials to show whether this or that was a good idea at the craps table, but after using Wincraps I realize it takes millions of rolls, and 100s of millions is not too far out.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
August 13th, 2014 at 8:06:40 AM
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Alan
I have been asking this for a long time, what is the standard... and the answer is none, nothing would be good enough
so that is why i say there is no such thing as dice control...period
An additional item is a thing i am pretty sure you understand, dice influence has little to do with winning, because it
can be positive or negative.
A casino that wants to make money should have a large sign in front of the casino... craps , 10x odds and all dice
setters are welcome.
dicesetter
I have been asking this for a long time, what is the standard... and the answer is none, nothing would be good enough
so that is why i say there is no such thing as dice control...period
An additional item is a thing i am pretty sure you understand, dice influence has little to do with winning, because it
can be positive or negative.
A casino that wants to make money should have a large sign in front of the casino... craps , 10x odds and all dice
setters are welcome.
dicesetter
August 13th, 2014 at 8:11:27 AM
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The end result of the dice is the only factor that matters with dice influence. The arc, the lob and all that doesn't matter. If you can show some correlation between throws, you are making the game non-random. Worrying about the throw itself is important only in it seems to be a method to reach the goal. But like wearing decent running shoes to run faster, wearing them doesn't make you an Olympic marathon runner. It's just (probably) a necessary step.
The difficult part is that proving you are influencing the dice is incredibly hard unless the influence is major. Long sequences have nothing to do with it. Just proof that you are making non-random rolls...
The difficult part is that proving you are influencing the dice is incredibly hard unless the influence is major. Long sequences have nothing to do with it. Just proof that you are making non-random rolls...
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
August 13th, 2014 at 8:41:31 AM
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Quote: odiousgambitI think you have made some good points in this regard, but fact is there is a certain point at which the law of large numbers will take charge.
Now, it may be true that the impracticality of generating the number of throws is too much to overcome, especially if the DI effect is very small. I used to think that 10,000 rolls of the dice was a sufficient number of trials to show whether this or that was a good idea at the craps table, but after using Wincraps I realize it takes millions of rolls, and 100s of millions is not too far out.
What if you were to remove the "human factor"? Could you build a rig that that could toss dice with a very high degree of consistency? If you do this, would you expect the outcomes to also be consistent? If you believe that the table's "randomizers" work, no matter the set and toss, you would expect a nice bell curve, with the peak being the seven (1/6th of the time). However, if you set the dice consistently in the rig and toss them consistently, aiming for the back wall, but avoiding the "pyramids", would it be reasonable to expect skewed results?
I believe they would be skewed. For $100k, it may be possible to build this rig and and test it. I think 10,000 trials would be enough to demonstrate a clear trend in the outcomes.
The question of whether a human could replicate the performance of the rig is another issue. If you agree that the rig could produce non-random results, then is it unresonable to think that a human could perform similarly in the short term (see: the "Tiger Woods in his prime" argument)?
This is why I consider D.I., "Possible".
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
August 13th, 2014 at 9:36:47 AM
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Quote: AyecarumbaI think 10,000 trials would be enough
it's enough sometimes, like to demonstrate that 'any 7' in Craps is very bad [g].
So it depends, and yes, maybe a machine could do it. Actually I think a machine throwing one die to show some consistency in hitting the same [any] face would be better than 2 dice, to start things off. [edits]
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
August 13th, 2014 at 11:20:50 AM
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Quote: AyecarumbaWhat if you were to remove the "human factor"? Could you build a rig that that could toss dice with a very high degree of consistency? If you do this, would you expect the outcomes to also be consistent? If you believe that the table's "randomizers" work, no matter the set and toss, you would expect a nice bell curve, with the peak being the seven (1/6th of the time). However, if you set the dice consistently in the rig and toss them consistently, aiming for the back wall, but avoiding the "pyramids", would it be reasonable to expect skewed results?
I believe they would be skewed. For $100k, it may be possible to build this rig and and test it. I think 10,000 trials would be enough to demonstrate a clear trend in the outcomes.
The question of whether a human could replicate the performance of the rig is another issue. If you agree that the rig could produce non-random results, then is it unresonable to think that a human could perform similarly in the short term (see: the "Tiger Woods in his prime" argument)?
This is why I consider D.I., "Possible".
Very well said.
And while I am not an engineer, I don't think a device to consistently deliver the dice to the same spot on a table would cost $100K.
August 13th, 2014 at 11:52:48 AM
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Quote: AxelWolfthey are really thinking no way, why would anyone in their right mind do that.
Quite the opposite. Two people I showed it to
carried their money to Vegas that way, in their
carry on luggage. Mix it in with a bunch of other
bottles that have pills in them and nobody gives
it a second look. That was rather the point, duh.
Not everybody flashes all the money they have
in the world in a money clip, like you do.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
August 13th, 2014 at 1:01:17 PM
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aahigh.com
August 13th, 2014 at 1:03:14 PM
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Umm why not just carry 5k in your wallet on the plane in your front pocket?Quote: EvenBobQuite the opposite. Two people I showed it to
carried their money to Vegas that way, in their
carry on luggage. Mix it in with a bunch of other
bottles that have pills in them and nobody gives
it a second look. That was rather the point, duh.
Not everybody flashes all the money they have
in the world in a money clip, like you do.
In a Book called, Keep It Together a chapter about tips about cleverly Hiding things: it's the #2 place to NOT hide things.
From NY times T.S.A. itself has had some trouble over the years from a handful of screeners who have been charged with stealing prescription medicine from passengers' checked and even carry-on bags. In the most recent incident, two former T.S.A. screeners at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport pleaded guilty in June to stealing medication from passengers' carry-on bags at checkpoints. The two screeners surreptitiously swiped pills.
http://www.fox16.com/mostpopular/story/TSA-screener-arrested-for-drug-theft-at-Little/d/story/oMbCSazQZkOUkvmyCKn03Q
http://www.spokesman.com/stories/2004/jul/14/airport-baggage-screener-charged-with-stealing/
Transportation Security Administration employee Wendy Susan Swanson was caught stealing prescription drugs from two bags while under surveillance, court documents state.
Inside Swanson’s purse, police also found three prescription bottles containing various prescription pills.
http://diytravelexpert.com/beware-of-airport-theft/
Favourite things to steal, in decreasing order: “fine jewellery”, digital cameras, laptops, DVD players. They also gladly steal prescription drugs,
http://www.aviationpros.com/news/10404035/security-screeners-busted-for-stealing-prescription-drugs
The screener, who worked for the Transportation Security Administration, later confessed to stealing meds at least 20 times over a six-month period, the feds say. Another screener allegedly confessed to stealing prescription drugs from passenger >>>>CARRY-ON BAGS <<<<on five occasions.
Normal people might not think about taking a second look, they are not the ones you need to worry about. If a thief sees you have pills they will take them. your better off keeping the money in a empty drink cup.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
August 13th, 2014 at 1:49:59 PM
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I don't understand why all you rich dudes don't have a credit line with the casino? I usually drive to Vegas with about $40 cash in my wallet... enough for tips and a soda and snack in Baker.
August 13th, 2014 at 2:57:06 PM
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Quote: AlanMendelsonI don't understand why all you rich dudes don't have a credit line with the casino? I usually drive to Vegas with about $40 cash in my wallet... enough for tips and a soda and snack in Baker.
Rich dudes with bad credit!
actually, I'm a little leery of a credit app with a casino.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
August 13th, 2014 at 3:03:29 PM
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Quote: AxelWolfNormal people might not think about taking a second look, they are not the ones you need to worry about. .
Don't do it, then. Why are you so concerned?
I'm very happy with this, keep using your
front pocket, that's very safe. lol
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
August 13th, 2014 at 3:18:37 PM
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I'm glad you are all telling me what to take next time I'm rolling drunk American tourists in town.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
