Buy the 4 & 10 while on the don't pass

Okay. Is this a bad idea? I play the don't pass at my casino. I play with 5 or 6x odds usually with a $10 don't pass bet. I have gotten killed so badly on 4's and 10's lately that I have decided to try something new. If I have a $10 or $15 don't pass bet and a 4 or 10 rolls, rather than lay $120 or $100 I put a $25 chip down for odds. If I win I drop down a $1 chip for the vig and get paid $50 but loose my don't pass bet. If the 7 hits though I loose $25 but win my $10 or $15 bet.

Now at the casino where I play, the 10 and 4 is a free buy meaning you only pay the vig if you win. Is this a bad idea? On Saturday I got absolutely demolished on a shooter that 4 times in a row had 4 as the point and made the 4 each time. He then 7's out on the next point, next shooter the point is 4 and he hits it again and I'm cleaned out. Last night, I was up a little bit and then the damn 4 was the point and I had $100 odds on it. I got cold feet after the shooter had been rolling for several minutes and decided to put a $15 hard 10 down as insurance. The very next roll was 6, 4 and I lost $100.

4 & 10 were the points 4 or 5 times more in that session and I won two of them and lost on 3.

Is this a bad approach? Also should I just place it for $10, which pays $17 (either a push or I win $7) or buy it for $25 which pays $50 (minus the vig which is only paid if I win)

The house edge on laying the odds is of course 0% . . . whereas the house edge on buying the 4 or 10, even with the commission paid on win only, is 1.67%. So if you want to simply lose less when a 4 or 10 rolls, lay less odds (or even no odds) when those numbers are the point. No reason to bet against your free bet with a bet that carries a house edge.

Quote: guitarmandp

If I have a $10 or $15 don't pass bet and a 4 or 10 rolls, rather than lay $120 or $100 I put a $25 chip down for odds.

I'm assuming you mean you put a $25 chip to buy the 4 or 10?

I like this idea. It doesn't seem overly hedgy if you ask me. I don't know how the numbers work out with the HE playing like this but it doesn't seem like a bad idea. Placing seems like your safest bet though. A guaranteed push or a win isn't bad.

Depends on why you're at the table. You'll definitely get more table time in if that's your goal. Otherwise the other posters above said it well.

Today I won big at the casino but absolutely got murdered on 4's and 10's again, should have stuck to my original idea of buying the 4 & 10 when it's the point. One shooter made the 4 twice and the 10 but couldn't make a 5

I'm a little fuzzy about your objective. You just want to avoid getting "murdered" when you get unlucky on the 4 and 10, right? I assume you're NOT saying that you think that it's actually LIKELY that the shooter will make their 4 or 10 and that you think every time a 4 or 10 comes you better start betting against your don't pass because of this. That clearly would be a losing proposition.

From a pure numbers perspective, hitting the 4 or 10 on the don't pass is great. Of all the points, these are most likely to pay you the even money on your base bet. You have a 66% chance of doubling your money and a 33% chance of losing it. That's a whopping 33% player edge. I can't conceive of a reason to hedge against this bet once you're on it, especially given that the amount of the bet is really small (you said $10 or $15). Surely your bankroll can withstand an unlucky streak on the base bet.

Of course the odds bet is a different story... It carries "merely" a house edge of 0%. It's a good proposition of course, but that doesn't mean you should unload your bankroll on it. An unlucky streak could set you back hundreds of dollars at the 5x amount you mentioned, thus "murdering" you. I understand wanting to reduce that risk somewhat. But that doesn't mean you need to place another bet to hedge, it just means you should reduce your exposure on the odds, perhaps even to zero if it suits you.

Quote: apsociallife

Of course the odds bet is a different story... It carries "merely" a house edge of 0%. It's a good proposition of course, but that doesn't mean you should unload your bankroll on it.

I'm undecided on this house edge business. Basically its the casino using lovely young ladies, a festive atmosphere and lively music to get us to make bets that are not in our favor. Oh, and did I mention the booze? That is an expected inducement even though its often served only after one has already been gambling for awhile. In addition to all this there is a vague, ill-defined "expectation" of a Comp, which is a sort of rebate where the casino butters you up and tells you they "like your action" when what they really mean is "we don't really care jack *$*$* about you, but we know you are hooked and we hope you come back to us for more smack rather than going elsewhere for your next fix.

So in consideration of the various "lures": painted women, loud music, warm beer ... and product, "un-even" but not necessarily "un-reasonable" bets, it makes sense to focus on the concept of "zero house edge". Now, of course "zero player edge" is the same thing, but somehow "zero house edge" sure sounds better.

So: Zero House Edge. Good or Bad? Well, whatever adjectives the salesman uses what he is trying to do is get you to dig into your pocket. Yet even if the snake oil salesman is really hyped and smooth tongued, when it comes right down to it, you've already made the choice about the painted women, booze and music... so you might as well get the freebies.

Mathematicians tell us the house edge works ALL the time and the best thing is to walk in and put down ONE BET. So the more we do bet the more it makes the mathematicians happy, but after treking all that way to Vegas, I sure want to make more than one bet rather than blow the whole bankroll in a very short time.

Everyone says make a flat bet high enough to allow you to make an odds bet that (together with the flat bet) equals what you are comfortable plunking down on the felt. So adjusting the odds bet is possible but not really admirable. When the point is FOUR or TEN it is LESS likely to be made, so Basic Strategy would be to make odds bets whenever the Four or Ten are the points.

Quote: apsociallife

I'm a little fuzzy about your objective. You just want to avoid getting "murdered" when you get unlucky on the 4 and 10, right? I assume you're NOT saying that you think that it's actually LIKELY that the shooter will make their 4 or 10 and that you think every time a 4 or 10 comes you better start betting against your don't pass because of this. That clearly would be a losing proposition.

From a pure numbers perspective, hitting the 4 or 10 on the don't pass is great. Of all the points, these are most likely to pay you the even money on your base bet. You have a 66% chance of doubling your money and a 33% chance of losing it. That's a whopping 33% player edge. I can't conceive of a reason to hedge against this bet once you're on it, especially given that the amount of the bet is really small (you said $10 or $15). Surely your bankroll can withstand an unlucky streak on the base bet.

Of course the odds bet is a different story... It carries "merely" a house edge of 0%. It's a good proposition of course, but that doesn't mean you should unload your bankroll on it. An unlucky streak could set you back hundreds of dollars at the 5x amount you mentioned, thus "murdering" you. I understand wanting to reduce that risk somewhat. But that doesn't mean you need to place another bet to hedge, it just means you should reduce your exposure on the odds, perhaps even to zero if it suits you.

When the advantage is on your side, in my opinion, betting against yourself is no longer a hedge, and becomes what I refer to as "liquidation."

If you bet half your life savings on the DC at Caesar's and you have the other half on the rail. Half your life savings travels behind the four and your wife comes up and says "WTF?!?! If you lose that bet you will be murdered tonight."

You're saying you would just ask to have that 33% advantaged bet returned to you?

Because here's what I would do. Let's assume that half your life savings is $50,000 and you have two $25,000 chips behind the four.

Buy the four for $50,000 less that 33% edge less. If the four doesn't hit, you will win your 33% edge in full. If it does hit, you will lose another ( 50,000 * (2/3) * .05 ) = $1666.66 for the vig.

You can even out the pay by engineering a win to the average of these two legs.

EV with seven = 33.33% 2/3 of the time
EV with the number = 30.00% 1/3 of the time

( 30 + 66.66 ) / 3 = 96.66 / 3 = 32.22% average EV returned.

50,000 * .3222 = $16,110

$50,000 - 16,110 = 33890

Round up to 33900 and you will have a $1695 vig and a 66105 - 50000 net win or 16105 if they do and net win of 16100 win if they don't.

This model makes the assumption that you already won on the first roll of the DC. You can extract, reasonably, about 32.22% of the 33.33% edge that you "won" already in my opinion if you can engineer the payment to receive it. Think of it as a ( 1.11 / 33.33 ) % or a 3.33% commission for selling your edge to the house. Better than a 6.00% commission on a $1,059,000 house I sold that cost me $63,540. And CERTAINLY better than just saying "no action" or risking being killed if you are about to get killed for having already had it travel behind the four and risking losing it further.

The rule "thou shalt not hedge" has exceptions.

Quote: apsociallife

I'm a little fuzzy about your objective. You just want to avoid getting "murdered" when you get unlucky on the 4 and 10, right? I assume you're NOT saying that you think that it's actually LIKELY that the shooter will make their 4 or 10 and that you think every time a 4 or 10 comes you better start betting against your don't pass because of this. That clearly would be a losing proposition.

From a pure numbers perspective, hitting the 4 or 10 on the don't pass is great. Of all the points, these are most likely to pay you the even money on your base bet. You have a 66% chance of doubling your money and a 33% chance of losing it. That's a whopping 33% player edge. I can't conceive of a reason to hedge against this bet once you're on it, especially given that the amount of the bet is really small (you said $10 or $15). Surely your bankroll can withstand an unlucky streak on the base bet.

Of course the odds bet is a different story... It carries "merely" a house edge of 0%. It's a good proposition of course, but that doesn't mean you should unload your bankroll on it. An unlucky streak could set you back hundreds of dollars at the 5x amount you mentioned, thus "murdering" you. I understand wanting to reduce that risk somewhat. But that doesn't mean you need to place another bet to hedge, it just means you should reduce your exposure on the odds, perhaps even to zero if it suits you.

My problem is that I have to put down nearly twice as much money to win the same amount of money on a 6 or 8. Get a shooter that makes the 4 or 10 multiple times and its lights out

Easiest way to make a $25 table into a $1 table is put $25 on the Pass Line and $26 on the Don't Pass and then play your regular game with your odds.

Quote: guitarmandp

My problem is that I have to put down nearly twice as much money to win the same amount of money on a 6 or 8. Get a shooter that makes the 4 or 10 multiple times and its lights out

On don't pass, I usually play only one (maybe/sometimes 2) point(s) per shooter. If he hits the point, I wait to the next shooter before betting again. That way, if a guy gets a hot roll, it doesn't kill me. It work's much better than hedging. Also, you could vary the odds that you lay behind your bet. If you are nervous about a shooter's luck, reduce your lay odds to minimize your exposure and reduce the variance. Regardless of the math, some guys just seem to be lucky. Being on the wrong side of luck is not fun at all. If you want to stay in the game, consider a small place/buy bet (place 6 or 8 or buy 4 or 10) on a hot roller, but not at the same time or in direct opposition to your dp bet.

Quote: Bohemian

Easiest way to make a $25 table into a $1 table is put $25 on the Pass Line and $26 on the Don't Pass and then play your regular game with your odds.

But midnight on the come out is a push on the DP and wipes out the PL.

Bad plan.

Quote: MrV

But midnight on the come out is a push on the DP and wipes out the PL.

Bad plan.

I disagree, as in life, you can buy your normal insurance on the 12 or take the 1/36 risk only on the 1 initial Come-out toss and self-insure with your winnings

Quote: MrV

But midnight on the come out is a push on the DP and wipes out the PL.

Bad plan.

If you want to limit your risk to $25 or LESS at a $25 table, it's not a bad plan at all. The house edge is horrible, but there's nothing wrong with gambling against the 12 so you can bet in whatever increments you want on the odds.

You are circumventing the entire table limits to play at whatever bet denominations that you want, and casinos HATE it when you do this!

HOWEVER, the long term cost is higher, while the short term risk is packed into one roll, usually you can move on from that roll and you can bet $1 odds on the four, $2 odds, on the 5/9 and anything else for zero cost once you get past that comeout roll.

Here's a bad plan. I have $100 and there's a $25 table. $25 on the pass line. Okay, I rolled a four. I better bet $75 odds because that's the best bet.

SEVEN OUT! DONE DONE AND DONE!

Bankroll management is what most folks fail at. People on this forum usually get the thing about betting odds to reduce the combined house edge. But then they fail at bankroll management on $10, $15, and $25 tables with even 345x odds trying to get the best deal and losing their whole BR in four or five rolls of the dice.

Quote: Bohemian

Easiest way to make a $25 table into a $1 table is put $25 on the Pass Line and $26 on the Don't Pass and then play your regular game with your odds.

Good point. Remember, the OP is looking for a post come out roll solution for his 4 and 10 situation.

Quote: skrbornevrymin

On don't pass, I usually play only one (maybe/sometimes 2) point(s) per shooter. If he hits the point, you wait to the next shooter before betting again. That way if a guy gets a hot roll it doesn't kill me. It work's much better than hedging. Also, you can vary the odds that you lay behind your bet. If you are nervous about a shooter's luck, reduce your lay odds to minimize your exposure and reduce the variance. Regardless of the math, some guys just seem to be lucky. Being on the wrong side of luck is not fun at all. If you want to stay in the game, consider a small place/buy bet (place 6 or 8 or buy 4 or 10) on a hot roller, but not at the same time or in direct opposition to your dp bet.

I've been putting a $50 don't pass bet down and placing the other inside numbers. Sometimes you can win big but I've also lost big. I made $700 tonight but lost $600 yesterday including losing $500 on one shooter. What happened was this shooter made 8 or 9 passes in about 15 minutes. He must have rolled the 5 12 times in a row because it was on the come out roll he'd hit it and then he'd hit it right back and the same thing happened 5 or 6 times and meanwhile I was losing $50 everytime this happened.

I was on a roll tonight where the point was 9 and the shooter rolled a ton of 6 and 8's but couldn't make a 9 so I made $50 on my don't pass bet and collected another $200 on the inside numbers as after it hits the first time and I collect my initial money I press very aggressively.

But yesterday there was very few numbers, very few 7 outs, basically points only. A pass line player that doesn't bet any numbers dream table.

Quote: guitarmandp

I've been putting a $50 don't pass bet down and placing the other inside numbers. Sometimes you can win big but I've also lost big. I made $700 tonight but lost $600 yesterday including losing $500 on one shooter. What happened was this shooter made 8 or 9 passes in about 15 minutes. He must have rolled the 5 12 times in a row because it was on the come out roll he'd hit it and then he'd hit it right back and the same thing happened 5 or 6 times and meanwhile I was losing $50 everytime this happened.

I was on a roll tonight where the point was 9 and the shooter rolled a ton of 6 and 8's but couldn't make a 9 so I made $50 on my don't pass bet and collected another $200 on the inside numbers as after it hits the first time and I collect my initial money I press very aggressively.

But yesterday there was very few numbers, very few 7 outs, basically points only. A pass line player that doesn't bet any numbers dream table.

Nothing works all the time, but the fun part of playing craps is that there are many different strategies with fairly low HEs. I can vary my strategy at any time depending upon my mood and/or the situation at the table. (Its not like bj that has one Basic Strategy that only varies slightly from table to table or play to play.) Nothing beats the rush of being in on a roll that seems to be specifically catered to my bets, especially if I am pressing and winning repeatedly.

Quote: skrbornevrymin

Nothing works all the time.

Except hardways. Unless you call them off of course.

Quote: skrbornevrymin

Nothing works all the time.

nothing wins all the time.

Quote: Ahigh

Except hardways. Unless you call them off of course.

Hardways do not work all the time on every come out roll
on every Craps table on the planet Earth.

I saw a $50 Hard 8 NOT paid on the come out roll at the Bogata casino this year in beautiful Atlantic City.
NO WHERE were the rules stated that hardways were *off* on the come out roll.

The player was not happy at all and the Dealers said "too bad. they are always off here on the come out roll"

This also happened with a $50 Hard 4 at Harrahs Rincon here in CA, the cards turned over with 2,2 and the player did not get paid on the come out roll.
Neither bet was mine so I did not care but I was disappointed that it (off on the come out roll) was not posted.

I have played at about 10 casinos in Nevada and every hardway bet I saw were, on the come out roll *working unless called off*
seems to be a standard stick call in Nevada,
but I would guess there might be one or two Nevada casinos where the bets are off on the come out roll.

Sally

Quote: guitarmandp

Okay. Is this a bad idea? I play the don't pass at my casino.

yes. The don't pass is a major sucker bet.
there are no lifetime winners that bet the don't pass.
The only lifetime winners at Craps in my expert opinion are the teams that lay against the established point.
very simple

The house edge is easily overcome by increasing the winning probabilities against each point and each shooter.
Not that one has to bet against every point that is. Some points, like the 4 and 10 get shot down with a very high rate
Big money to be won there, if you know how
If you do not know how to do this and want to be a lifetime Craps winner, better get started in figuring this out.

I mean, if a stupid and ugly (so I have been told) girl like myself can do it.

But if you are male, the odds are stacked against you.

as a matter of fact, women are the best craps players ever as I have pointed out before
that should hold true for the future too

Sally

Quote: mustangsally

nothing wins all the time.
Hardways do not work all the time on every come out roll
on every Craps table on the planet Earth.

I saw a $50 Hard 8 NOT paid on the come out roll at the Bogata casino this year in beautiful Atlantic City.
NO WHERE were the rules stated that hardways were *off* on the come out roll.

The player was not happy at all and the Dealers said "too bad. they are always off here on the come out roll"

This also happened with a $50 Hard 4 at Harrahs Rincon here in CA, the cards turned over with 2,2 and the player did not get paid on the come out roll.
Neither bet was mine so I did not care but I was disappointed that it (off on the come out roll) was not posted.

I have played at about 10 casinos in Nevada and every hardway bet I saw were, on the come out roll *working unless called off*
seems to be a standard stick call in Nevada,
but I would guess there might be one or two Nevada casinos where the bets are off on the come out roll.

Sally

But even in Las Vegas it is not a real standard. Maybe some of the long timers can weigh in, but I am quite certain hardways did not work on the come out roll in the late 90's and early 2000. Vegas was the only place I played when I first started, and I am positive they were off on the Come Out.
I see more people with the Come Outs OFF on the come out roll that I am surprised they just don't have them off by default. But then again, having them ON just means one more bet in action for the casino, so I chalk it up to casino greed.

Quote: mustangsally

yes. The don't pass is a major sucker bet.
there are no lifetime winners that bet the don't pass.
The only lifetime winners at Craps in my expert opinion are the teams that lay against the established point.
very simple

The house edge is easily overcome by increasing the winning probabilities against each point and each shooter.
Not that one has to bet against every point that is. Some points, like the 4 and 10 get shot down with a very high rate
Big money to be won there, if you know how
If you do not know how to do this and want to be a lifetime Craps winner, better get started in figuring this out.

I mean, if a stupid and ugly (so I have been told) girl like myself can do it.

But if you are male, the odds are stacked against you.

as a matter of fact, women are the best craps players ever as I have pointed out before
that should hold true for the future too

Sally

Why would you only lay against the established point when you could lay against any point of your choosing? Do you like to p**s people off by betting against them?

Quote: skrbornevrymin

Quote: mustangsally

yes. The don't pass is a major sucker bet.
there are no lifetime winners that bet the don't pass.
The only lifetime winners at Craps in my expert opinion are the teams that lay against the established point.
very simple

The house edge is easily overcome by increasing the winning probabilities against each point and each shooter.
Not that one has to bet against every point that is. Some points, like the 4 and 10 get shot down with a very high rate
Big money to be won there, if you know how
If you do not know how to do this and want to be a lifetime Craps winner, better get started in figuring this out.

I mean, if a stupid and ugly (so I have been told) girl like myself can do it.

But if you are male, the odds are stacked against you.

as a matter of fact, women are the best craps players ever as I have pointed out before
that should hold true for the future too

Sally

Why would you only lay against the established point when you could lay against any point of your choosing? Do you like to p**s people off by betting against them?

I smell just a hint of sarcasm; you might have missed it

Quote: Daddydoc

I smell just a hint of sarcasm; you might have missed it

Undetectable sarcasm has a name, too.

Lie.

Quote: skrbornevrymin

Why would you only lay against the established point when you could lay against any point of your choosing?

I actually do both but because a shooter betting on the pass line (they are everywhere) has an interest in the established point
it is so easy to get "under their skin" and increase the chances of them missing their point or in other words
7 out line away!

Quote: skrbornevrymin

Do you like to p**s people off by betting against them?

Yes!
When my team is on a roll, happens over 67.4% of every hour we play, I ask the shooter right after a point is established
especially a male shooter

"Hey, shooter!, you going to 7out right away before you roll some 6s and 8s?"

They normally mumble something and are not at all confident in their answer,
and when the point is a 6 or 8
I throw to my Dealer 8 - $25 chips and say I wants to bet against the point because the 7 rules here and our shooter is too wishy washy,
so $200 should cover my vig too.
It really slows the game down (the Dealers have to figure out what I want and when I tells them a $192 Lay 6, hehe)
and the shooter gets pissed...
I do not know if it is on or off (pissed on - guys do this easily in the bathroom I hear or pissed off)

but my team requires wins and to bet against a shooter when the trend - yes the trend - is no shooter point winners
is what I seek out and take advantage of
I thank the arcsine law for that too (other than about 60% of all shooters can not even roll one point winner and they are done)

Happy Crappy!
see you at the Craps tables soon I hope
Sally

Quote: mustangsally

yes. The don't pass is a major sucker bet.
there are no lifetime winners that bet the don't pass.
The only lifetime winners at Craps in my expert opinion are the teams that lay against the established point.
very simple

The house edge is easily overcome by increasing the winning probabilities against each point and each shooter.
Not that one has to bet against every point that is. Some points, like the 4 and 10 get shot down with a very high rate
Big money to be won there, if you know how
If you do not know how to do this and want to be a lifetime Craps winner, better get started in figuring this out.

I mean, if a stupid and ugly (so I have been told) girl like myself can do it.

But if you are male, the odds are stacked against you.

as a matter of fact, women are the best craps players ever as I have pointed out before
that should hold true for the future too

Sally

Stupid and ugly? I've never seen a picture, but far, far from stupid. The rest of your post is probably sarcasm, but I'm not accepting anything less than beautiful as a self-descriptor. Amazing mind, great sense of humor. We'd be the poorer without you.

Quote: mustangsally

I actually do both but because a shooter betting on the pass line (they are everywhere) has an interest in the established point
it is so easy to get "under their skin" and increase the chances of them missing their point or in other words
7 out line away!
Yes!
When my team is on a roll, happens over 67.4% of every hour we play, I ask the shooter right after a point is established
especially a male shooter

"Hey, shooter!, you going to 7out right away before you roll some 6s and 8s?"

They normally mumble something and are not at all confident in their answer,
and when the point is a 6 or 8
I throw to my Dealer 8 - $25 chips and say I wants to bet against the point because the 7 rules here and our shooter is too wishy washy,
so $200 should cover my vig too.
It really slows the game down (the Dealers have to figure out what I want and when I tells them a $192 Lay 6, hehe)
and the shooter gets pissed...
I do not know if it is on or off (pissed on - guys do this easily in the bathroom I hear or pissed off)

but my team requires wins and to bet against a shooter when the trend - yes the trend - is no shooter point winners
is what I seek out and take advantage of
I thank the arcsine law for that too (other than about 60% of all shooters can not even roll one point winner and they are done)

Happy Crappy!
see you at the Craps tables soon I hope
Sally

I bet you are hugely popular at the tables!!!

Mustangsally



I dont really like to do this, but then again I do alot i dont like to do.


If you are playing on a table when the "male" shooters are all random, and therefore
every shot they throw is random without any direction at all , why in the world would it
do you any good to get under their skin.

I have played some on the dont side, but i do it quietly in the corner of the table. I give each
shooter the respect he or she deseves. IN my humble opinion, what your doing is no better than
buying in the middle of a good roll, which is something i wont do .

Respect for other players is a good rule to follow.

Dicesetter


And


Just laying the point is not that good if you look at the numbers, once the point is established
you have a 31% advantage over the guy not hitting the point as compared to hitting it. (41/59)
but then you look at your lay...... 5 & 9 you are betting 128.6% of what you hope to win, the 4 & 10
is even worse at 144.5% , the 6 & 8 are only 108.33%

Now i grant you there appears to be an advantage on the 5 & 9 and more on the 6 & 8, but is that
enough to make you a life time winner? That is a question since i confess to not working the
dont side of the table enough to see all the angles.

Quote: mustangsally

Yes!
When my team is on a roll, happens over 67.4% of every hour we play, I ask the shooter right after a point is established
especially a male shooter

"Hey, shooter!, you going to 7out right away before you roll some 6s and 8s?"

Well at least you're enjoying yourself while you're grinding out all those winnings. Go get 'em Sally!

I was playing at Hollywood in Harrisburg, PA last weekend when the following happened;

Table was choppy at best, but more like cold, with only a few shooters able to make one point. Four older guys step up to the table, all friends, and proceed to bet the DP.
Bettor to my right pulls about 10,000 in $100s out of his pocket, and peels off a single $100.
Waits of the dice to go out, and then puts the $100 bill on the DP, saying "$100 on the Don't plays".
Shooter sets the point as 8.
Bettor reaches in his pocket, and peels off 6 - $100 bills.
Waits for the dice to go out, and then throws the 6 $100s on the DP and says, "$600 Odds plays on the Don't).
Definitely playing on the late bets and money on the table superstitions.
Shooter throws a few numbers, but 7s out.

So now the bettor goes $200 DP, and the dice pass by his 2 friends and him, and come to me.
I set the point of 9, and the bettor takes $1200 in DP odds.
I throw a few numbers and then as the dice come out I hear him say to his buddy, "They say the 7 comes on the 6th or 7th throw."
As if on command, I 7 out, and I hear him chuckle and say to his buddy, "works every time."

Dice pass to other end of the table, and bettor now goes to $300 DP, and takes $1,800 in odds.
Now as the shooter is throwing, he starts making a smooching sound as the shooter is letting go of the dice. It was pretty loud, so I have to believe the shooter could hear it. At this point, the shooter throws one of the dice into the rack. A 6 is showing on the felt, so this guy grabs the dice from the rail, and makes a great effort to make sure the 1 is on top as he sets it down to show the 7. Two rolls later die goes into rail again, and once again, he sets the dice to show a 7 as the stick pulls it back.

He was being such an ass that it was almost funny. Nobody seemed to be minding, but I was starting to get uncomfortable. Two more 7 outs and now he is betting $500 DP, and $3000 odds. Now his antics are going full bore. Rooting for the 7, smooching on each throw, making late bets for $10, you name it. At this point, I decided to go play BJ, figuring a fight was eminent.

About 30 minutes later, my wife points out that security is all around the craps table, but there does not seem to be a ruckus. Nothing materializes, and after making money at BJ, I head back to craps. The friends are all gone, but the guy next to me tells me I left before it got exciting. I mention I saw the security and wondered if the DP bettor had caused a problem. NOPE. Turns out he won a few more of the max bet DP's and then started betting MAX on the hardways, AND WAS WINNING on them too. Supposedly the bettor cashed out over $30,000, and one of the friends was over $20,000. All off his original $700 buy in.

Personally, I think he was being an ass. Had he lost a couple of those bets, and had a shooter say something, I am quite certain he would not have taken kindly to it. Definitely appeared the type to dish it out, but probably could not take it. But, since he won every bet while I was there, I don't know for certain. Takes all kinds.

Quote: dicesitter

If you are playing on a table when the "male" shooters are all random, and therefore
every shot they throw is random without any direction at all , why in the world would it
do you any good to get under their skin.

I say half of those male shooters set the dice before they throw and I never ask if they consider themselves a DI
they might just be packing

Quote: dicesitter

IN my humble opinion, what your doing is no better than
buying in the middle of a good roll, which is something i wont do .

Laying the first point against any shooter is NEVER
"buying in the middle of a good roll"
never

Quote: dicesitter

Just laying the point is not that good if you look at the numbers, ...

Now i grant you there appears to be an advantage on the 5 & 9 and more on the 6 & 8, but is that
enough to make you a life time winner? That is a question since i confess to not working the
dont side of the table enough to see all the angles.

There is only one angle to laying against the point - winning

shoot to win Craps one can place to lose too
I hear this is popular bets in England and Australia

I be at both places next month!
12 days and counting. have to practice on my English!

I know of only two lifetime winners at Craps
Me and Patricia Demauro

(Rick Parris passed away almost 2 years ago and claims to never have made one (casino) bet in his life. I count that as not a lifetime winner)
this will all be verified when we are all dead BTW

winning is all that matters when playing Craps
it is where 99.198% of all the fun comes from
Sally

mustangsally



i was referring to this

I actually do both but because a shooter betting on the pass line (they are everywhere) has an interest in the established point
it is so easy to get "under their skin" and increase the chances of them missing their point or in other words
7 out line away!

dicesetter

Quote: dicesitter

i was referring to this

so was I too

I also mentioned, and understand most males over 30 miss the points of my writings,
that one does not have to bet on every established point.

The best point to Lay against in my opinion is the first one by the shooter just because
about 60% or 6 out of 10 NEVER make their first point.
NEVER
Random or DI
NEVER

Just this one strategy increases your win rate if you play the game properly
(there is more to it, but secrets are secrets for a reason)

The don't pass and the don't come compared to Lay bets or place bets to lose are really just sucker bets.
Why?
because they still lose on a 7 or an 11

a place to lose or a Lay always wins on a 7
will never lose on a 7 or an 11
(this excludes crapless craps of course)
and has a higher winning rate than any dpass or dc bet

advantage
Sally

Quote: mustangsally

so was I too

I also mentioned, and understand most males over 30 miss the points of my writings,
that one does not have to bet on every established point.

The best point to Lay against in my opinion is the first one by the shooter just because
about 60% or 6 out of 10 NEVER make their first point.
NEVER
Random or DI
NEVER

Just this one strategy increases your win rate if you play the game properly
(there is more to it, but secrets are secrets for a reason)

The don't pass and the don't come compared to Lay bets or place bets to lose are really just sucker bets.
Why?
because they still lose on a 7 or an 11

a place to lose or a Lay always wins on a 7
will never lose on a 7 or an 11
(this excludes crapless craps of course)
and has a higher winning rate than any dpass or dc bet

advantage
Sally

If you bet on a per roll basis, the first roll of the don't pass or don't come is more likely to win some positive EV on a roll than laying against the four or laying against the ten.

If you only consider bets as the variety that cause the dealer to make an immediate payment, however, that is another view.

On the first roll of a don't, you win positive EV for anything but a seven, eleven, or twelve. That's 27/36 or 75% chance of winning. Better than 66.66%

Quote: Ahigh

When the advantage is on your side, in my opinion, betting against yourself is no longer a hedge, and becomes what I refer to as "liquidation."

If you bet half your life savings on the DC at Caesar's and you have the other half on the rail. Half your life savings travels behind the four and your wife comes up and says "WTF?!?! If you lose that bet you will be murdered tonight."

You're saying you would just ask to have that 33% advantaged bet returned to you?

Because here's what I would do. Let's assume that half your life savings is $50,000 and you have two $25,000 chips behind the four.

Buy the four for $50,000 less that 33% edge less. If the four doesn't hit, you will win your 33% edge in full. If it does hit, you will lose another ( 50,000 * (2/3) * .05 ) = $1666.66 for the vig.

You can even out the pay by engineering a win to the average of these two legs.

EV with seven = 33.33% 2/3 of the time
EV with the number = 30.00% 1/3 of the time

( 30 + 66.66 ) / 3 = 96.66 / 3 = 32.22% average EV returned.

50,000 * .3222 = $16,110

$50,000 - 16,110 = 33890

Round up to 33900 and you will have a $1695 vig and a 66105 - 50000 net win or 16105 if they do and net win of 16100 win if they don't.

This model makes the assumption that you already won on the first roll of the DC. You can extract, reasonably, about 32.22% of the 33.33% edge that you "won" already in my opinion if you can engineer the payment to receive it. Think of it as a ( 1.11 / 33.33 ) % or a 3.33% commission for selling your edge to the house. Better than a 6.00% commission on a $1,059,000 house I sold that cost me $63,540. And CERTAINLY better than just saying "no action" or risking being killed if you are about to get killed for having already had it travel behind the four and risking losing it further.

The rule "thou shalt not hedge" has exceptions.

I don't think OP is putting half his life savings on the DC.

But if he for some reason decides to do that, at least he now knows what to do!

The last time I visited Jerry's Nugget, I was told that the hold percentage before the all-tall-small (aka feature bets) were on the table was 23-24%. This is a $3 double odds table. The explanation was that before the feature bets, there were more hop bets being made.

The hold percentage was reported to have gone down to 18% at this location after the feature bets went into place, but the drop went up by a greater percentage than the hold went down.

The reason the hold percentage is so high on a $3 table is that there is a lot of rounding down that happens on payments of $3 place bets. There is also a higher percentage of prop bets, typically, made on $3 tables by players who are not as averse to the high house edges of those bets.

A typical craps table in Nevada holds 12% to 14%.

http://gaming.unlv.edu/reports/longterm_nvgaming.pdf

When you are seriously trying to make some money, a betting system is not what is called for. Betting on a single event (IE: a single roll) is not a bad approach.

The reason people deal with these higher house edges is because of the larger pay multiples.

But if you're more focused on the actual winning part, one bet is always better than two bets. And in my book, the bet is the random event (IE: the roll) not what's marked on the felt (the sell to keep playing and playing and playing). And if you want a better than 50/50 chance to win on the craps table, the best way to get it done is one roll and bring it all down after you are in the profit zone. For a one-roll win, multiple place bets are cheaper by the roll than the DC if you can manage to bring them down.

there is a saying, " talk sh*t, get hit." although women usually get away with a lot more because most guys won't hit them.

Quote: djatc

there is a saying,

scuse me while I kiss the sky

Quote: djatc

" talk sh*t, get hit." although women usually get away with a lot more because most guys won't hit them.

most boys hit on girls all the time

I hear many complaints cuz the male (boy) is just a complainer (the Venus and Mars thing again - and there are many of those unfortunately)
and in my opinion that is OK too, really sweet
like her

I love ass

Pretty amusing dark side player on the cruise I was on last month.

He walked up to a pretty full table that we were all doing pretty well on - and just as important to me - all getting along and having a lot of fun.

He was at the end of the table and for the next 3 shooters on his side - about every other throw he would as soon as the dice were being passed - loudly announce "shooter I hate to do this but any 7 "- and throw 25 $ on the any 7. 2 of the 3 it worked on pretty quickly and they were not pleased.

But when the dice got to the other side of the table he really upped the ante.

He started rooted for the 7 loudly - and telling the rest of us how he could "talk to the dice" and you didnt want to throw towards him.

I found the whole thing pretty interesting but most of the table did not.

Finally the dice got to a guy at the opposite end from the obnoxious dark sider (this guy looked and was built a lot like the Rock!) - he went on a nice long 30/35 roll and hit 6 points - and trash talked the dont player off the table.

If the Rock had 7 out right away tho - I am pretty sure we would have seen an ass kicking cuz he was not happy with the dude.

Sally




I get that... this is not rocket science.... my point was you indicated you try to distract
the shooter in some manner or another.

that may have been a play on words, if not i just indicated i dont think that shows
much respect for other shooters.

I dont take issue with how you bet, that is your business, and if it works for you,
more power to you. I sure as hell am not a lifetime winner

Dicesetter

Quote: dicesitter

I get that... this is not rocket science....

Ahigh




Thats how i felt last Tuesday night, Now Saturday night was much better

Dicesetter