If all bets paid true odds, which would you choose?
July 13th, 2014 at 10:28:04 PM
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This question is purely for fun. Assuming all bets on the craps table paid true odds, which would be your go to bet? Say you have $100 that you can only make on a single bet, which would you choose?
July 13th, 2014 at 10:35:34 PM
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Big Red
I like to go for the bet that is most likely to hit.
I like to go for the bet that is most likely to hit.
July 13th, 2014 at 11:11:21 PM
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Quote: PBguyBig Red
I like to go for the bet that is most likely to hit.
So you'd choose a bet that has only a 1/6 chance to win?
July 14th, 2014 at 12:11:29 AM
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Quote: sodawaterSo you'd choose a bet that has only a 1/6 chance to win?
Most of my bets with an edge are six, eight, pass, come. I would bet $5 units instead of $6 units on the six and eight, and I would expect to only lose half my money on the twelve. But I would still play the game the same way if instead of 0.42% edge per roll and 0.46% edge per roll it was 0.00%.
I would probably do more lay bets, though. I will usually only do a lay if I'm winning $24 or $25 right now. Sometimes I will lay to win $15-$20. I like to lay the 5, 6, 8, and 9 sometimes, and I would do that more often with no vig especially at smaller amounts (laying 9 to win 6) that have too high of an edge to do more routinely with the vig and/or requiring a traveled DC first.
aahigh.com
July 14th, 2014 at 2:13:32 AM
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Pretty much what I always played... what I liked at the time. With a neutral EV there's still plenty of characters that will fill the wagering slots. The House's new friend... wagering bias (Force/DarkSide for example).
Some people need to reimagine their thinking.
July 14th, 2014 at 4:10:14 AM
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Quote: PBguyBig Red
I like to go for the bet that is most likely to hit.
the "problem" with Big Red is that it's a one roll bet.
If all of the bets paid true odds then I'd maximize the passline bet to benefit from the come-out rolls and not have to worry about "odds" and the shooter hitting the same number a second time.
July 14th, 2014 at 7:04:19 AM
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Quote: AlanMendelsonthe "problem" with Big Red is that it's a one roll bet.
If all of the bets paid true odds then I'd maximize the passline bet to benefit from the come-out rolls and not have to worry about "odds" and the shooter hitting the same number a second time.
Just so we know you get the OP's question, how would you modify the pass line to pay "true odds?" I'm not convinced you understand the question given your response.
As a matter of fact, I'm started to wonder in general about you, buddy.
aahigh.com
July 14th, 2014 at 7:11:28 AM
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I would place six and eight in increments of $5, with payoffs on a hit yielding 6-5.
"What, me worry?"
July 14th, 2014 at 7:14:11 AM
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deleted
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
July 14th, 2014 at 7:21:02 AM
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I get what you're thinking.Quote: PBguyBig Red
I like to go for the bet that is most likely to hit.
But based on that thinking, with a single bet, I'd bet either the Field with 16 chances to win or World with 12 chances to win. The decision will be based upon how the field pays.
I invented a few casino games. Info:
http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ —————————————————————————————————————
Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
July 14th, 2014 at 7:40:30 AM
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$1 pass line minimums and 10x odds isn't really that far off.
Some people like the challenge of not losing by betting as stupidly as possible! Most of them fail in more than one way. But knowing how to bet is the more obvious way to notice someone not making sufficient efforts to have a decent chance to win.
But if you are doing it on purpose, and you can afford it, why not?
It's just a game.
I have yet to see someone try $1 each of the easy hops.
It pays 16 for 15. Wins a lot!
Hard to come out ahead, but easy to get paid.
Some people like the challenge of not losing by betting as stupidly as possible! Most of them fail in more than one way. But knowing how to bet is the more obvious way to notice someone not making sufficient efforts to have a decent chance to win.
But if you are doing it on purpose, and you can afford it, why not?
It's just a game.
I have yet to see someone try $1 each of the easy hops.
It pays 16 for 15. Wins a lot!
Hard to come out ahead, but easy to get paid.
aahigh.com
July 14th, 2014 at 7:46:07 AM
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Quote: AhighJust so we know you get the OP's question, how would you modify the pass line to pay "true odds?" I'm not convinced you understand the question given your response.
As a matter of fact, I'm started to wonder in general about you, buddy.
I understand the question. The passline doesnt have to pay true odds -- it already is favored. But now there is no need to bet "odds" and so you can take what normally would be odds and put them on the passline from the start to take advantage of the come out rolls.
Most strategies call for a minimal passline bet and to load up on the odds. But the question says all bets are now paid at true odds -- so that frees up the money that would have been bet on the odds.
It's a little convoluted thinking, but hopefully you understand my position.
July 14th, 2014 at 7:50:51 AM
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Quote: AlanMendelsonI understand the question. The passline doesnt have to pay true odds -- it already is favored. But now there is no need to bet "odds" and so you can take what normally would be odds and put them on the passline from the start to take advantage of the come out rolls.
Most strategies call for a minimal passline bet and to load up on the odds. But the question says all bets are now paid at true odds -- so that frees up the money that would have been bet on the odds.
It's a little convoluted thinking, but hopefully you understand my position.
One way would be to only take half the pass line on a 12-craps loss. There would still be a tiny miniscule edge here if you did it this way, but that's what I was fishing for.
aahigh.com
July 14th, 2014 at 7:52:24 AM
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Many people lose more from tipping than from the house edge. I'm one of those people.
Free bets wouldn't help me save my money.
Not tipping would help tremendously more.
Free bets wouldn't help me save my money.
Not tipping would help tremendously more.
aahigh.com
July 14th, 2014 at 7:53:51 AM
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Quote: befamous7This question is purely for fun. Assuming all bets on the craps table paid true odds, which would be your go to bet? Say you have $100 that you can only make on a single bet, which would you choose?
THAT was the OP's question.
It wasn't limited to pass line.
So, place six and eight, fifty each, hope for the best.
"What, me worry?"
July 14th, 2014 at 8:02:11 AM
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again, SINGLE BET. I'm sticking with the passline. By having all bets pay true odds, the advantage of betting the odds disappears making the passline bet the best bet on the table -- and not the odds bet.
July 14th, 2014 at 8:06:39 AM
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deleted
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
July 14th, 2014 at 8:08:25 AM
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Ah, but if ALL bets paid true odds, no one bet would be better than the other.
So it would simply be a matter of personal preference.
A world bet would be no worse than a pass line bet under this scenario.
So it would simply be a matter of personal preference.
A world bet would be no worse than a pass line bet under this scenario.
"What, me worry?"
July 14th, 2014 at 8:48:52 AM
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Lay the point.
July 14th, 2014 at 8:51:19 AM
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Quote: IbeatyouracesIf all bets pay true odds, there are no best bets. Some will just have higher variance.
that's why I'm sticking with the passline -- more ways to win.
July 14th, 2014 at 8:54:53 AM
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How would a passline pay true odds? I'm thinking either:
1) Pays 1:2 if 7/11 is rolled on the come out roll...then pay 2:1 for 4/10, 3:2 for 5/9, and 6:5 for 6/8 after point is established [and point is made].
or
2) Any win on the passline pays $101.41 (or something like that....although I don't think it'd be that....I just figured if you add in the house edge it'd work out? idk).
1) Pays 1:2 if 7/11 is rolled on the come out roll...then pay 2:1 for 4/10, 3:2 for 5/9, and 6:5 for 6/8 after point is established [and point is made].
or
2) Any win on the passline pays $101.41 (or something like that....although I don't think it'd be that....I just figured if you add in the house edge it'd work out? idk).
July 14th, 2014 at 8:58:20 AM
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the passline doesnt pay true odds.
My point is that because the odds bets on the passline are now no better than any other box bet or horn bet or field bet (because they all pay true odds) the passline bet becomes a "better bet" because it has more ways to win.
I think everyone agrees that the odds bets are the "best bets" because they are the only bets that pay true odds. When you take away that advantage, the passline bet in and of itself becomes more favorable because it has more ways to win.
but I like your math!! and given the OP's original question, some adjustment to the pass line bet payoffs would be in order.
My point is that because the odds bets on the passline are now no better than any other box bet or horn bet or field bet (because they all pay true odds) the passline bet becomes a "better bet" because it has more ways to win.
I think everyone agrees that the odds bets are the "best bets" because they are the only bets that pay true odds. When you take away that advantage, the passline bet in and of itself becomes more favorable because it has more ways to win.
but I like your math!! and given the OP's original question, some adjustment to the pass line bet payoffs would be in order.
July 14th, 2014 at 3:16:05 PM
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In some ways, I don't think it matters whether or not there's a HE. HE is overhyped, I think. What matters is whether or not the dice hit my numbers before 7 out. Oh. Over the long term, we lose. Isn't it true that over the long term we're all dead? Just stick to the low HE bets. Even that doesn't help if my number(s) don't hit before 7 out.
July 14th, 2014 at 3:49:55 PM
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$100! That's chump change. I'm on the yo for 18 to one, baby!
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You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!
July 14th, 2014 at 3:57:11 PM
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To make Passline true, you make the 12 only a .5 unit loss. (HA House -.025%)
To make don't pass true, you pay the 12 .5 unit (HA Player 0.025%)
To make don't pass true, you pay the 12 .5 unit (HA Player 0.025%)
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You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!
July 14th, 2014 at 3:58:53 PM
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Quote: AlanMendelsonagain, SINGLE BET. I'm sticking with the passline. By having all bets pay true odds, the advantage of betting the odds disappears making the passline bet the best bet on the table -- and not the odds bet.
BORING. Give me the Hard 8 at 10:1.
That's what she said.
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You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!
July 14th, 2014 at 4:59:44 PM
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Quote: sodawaterSo you'd choose a bet that has only a 1/6 chance to win?
Sure. A bet that pays 6 to 1. Nice win or walk away with nothing.
July 15th, 2014 at 1:17:33 PM
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Quote: PBguySure. A bet that pays 6 to 1. Nice win or walk away with nothing.
Would the 12 pay 36:1 ? Why not bet midnight?
July 15th, 2014 at 3:13:39 PM
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Quote: AlanMendelsonWould the 12 pay 36:1 ? Why not bet midnight?
It'd pay 35:1. High variance.
