Lay the 4 to cover your place bets

Saw something incredible yesterday. This guy shows up at the casino with a $10,000 sleeve and buys in for $10,000. He then had a $1,000 no 4 lay bet and to protect it had a $150 hard 4 and then he had about $540 worth of action on the table. When the table was cold he seemed to break even because whenever they 7'd out he would get most of his money back. He also placed a $15 come bet on every bet and convert his place bet to an odds bet. At one point they rolled 3 4's in a row and it didn't phase him at all, he stuck to his strategy.

Anyways once the table got hot he started pressing like crazy and he had 4 racks full of chips. It was crazy because they'd roll a bunch of numbers and if somebody 7'd out he got initial money back. It didn't always work but most of the time it did.

He colored up for $29,208. There were 4 or 5 guys in a suits that I'd never seen before that were looking over as the boxman counted his chips. He didn't leave a tip for the dealers which was odd.

Perhaps not odd or unusual, but it was ignorant.

ouch on the 11% vig for hard 4.

so $540 across except on the 4?

if a 1+3 rolls, he loses $1150. that's a lot of $ to make up if he's only doing $540 across.

Quote: 100xOdds

ouch on the 11% vig for hard 4.

so $540 across except on the 4?

if a 1+3 rolls, he loses $1150. that's a lot of $ to make up if he's only doing $540 across.

Yeah but if they seven out he gets his money back.

I'd observe these guys over 3-4 sessions before drawing any conclusions. You don't know how much he's up or down over his time of play. Recently, I was told a player at my table had won about $7k the other night. I assume he bet like he did before, but didn't last long. I wouldn't put too much stock in your player's method of play in only one session.

Quote: guitarmandp

Yeah but if they seven out he gets his money back.

not really.
if a 7 comes, you get ~$500 from the Lay 4 but lose $540 across and the $150 on the hard 4.

500 - 540 - 150 = -190

risking $1150 to only lose $190 instead of 540?? so basically you only get 350 (540-190) back for risking 1150.
horrible system

Quote: guitarmandp

He didn't leave a tip for the dealers which was odd.

How much should he have tipped on this?

A 29k cash out is not much for a 10k buy in. Let's assume this guy plays craps often and he normally buys in for 10k. I'm sure he has lost the 10k many times as well.

Tipping an amount that would make dealers happy would eat him up. They look at how much you won, they expect to get a % of your money. If I buy in for $50 and turn it into $500, then I tip $50, I look like a good tipper. If this guy tosses them $60 bucks, he looks cheap, the employees will still scoff at him and his tip anyways. He is better off not tipping in this situation.

Quote: AxelWolf

Tipping an amount that would make dealers happy would eat him up. They look at how much you won, they expect to get a % of your money. If I buy in for $50 and turn it into $500, then I tip $50, I look like a good tipper. If this guy tosses them $60 bucks, he looks cheap, the employees will still scoff at him and his tip anyways. He is better off not tipping in this situation.

Good dealers appreciate all tips and understand the tips are an exchange between the player and the dealer for good service.

Bad dealers who can't make tips are often not making tips because they suck. Just like gamblers who want to blame others, bad dealers want to blame everyone but themselves for their inability to perform a service that is tip-worthy.

Quote: Ahigh

Good dealers appreciate all tips and understand the tips are an exchange between the player and the dealer for good service.

Bad dealers who can't make tips are often not making tips because they suck. Just like gamblers who want to blame others, bad dealers want to blame everyone but themselves for their inability to perform a service that is tip-worthy.

You may just have a special way of putting them in a good mood for the rest of us?

If you want the weighted edge per resolve bet to do this:

0.417% edge per roll for $1000 ($4.17 per roll cost)
2.78% edge per roll for $150 ($4.17 per roll cost)

$8.34 / $1150 = 0.7252% edge per roll

Bet lasts for four rolls so it's a 2.9% edge per resolved bet. That sounds better than placing the five or nine.

Focusing on the 12.5% per resolved bet of the hardways neglects to realize that multiple bets combined together create a new resolved bet.

It seems to be a weakness of analysis for some folks on the forum how resolution of a bet can include things that are not explicitly labeled as bets on the felt.

Weighted edge per roll for all the action on the felt is often the best way to compare what are normally apples and oranges.

You bet on the roll as the most frequent resolution that one can imagine in the game. All else is merely a mental construct and/or a system of multiple bets (each resolved roll is an independent event and can in fact be considered an independent bet). Whether marked on the felt or not.

@guitarmandp


Just call it a good night…. I've seen a guys come in and lay against a 4 or 10 and get Wiped quickly…

There's a guy that plays frequently that does the same thing. He'll lay the 4 or 10 for $800 to cover his place bets. If one of the place bets hits then he'll drop them down quite a bit and take the lay down. So he starts with something like $405 across with the $800 lay then if one of the place bets hit he takes the lay down and reduces his bets to something like $110 inside.

Sometimes it works great but when it doesn't it gets expensive quickly.

I cost him $2700 on a single roll one time when he bet $500 on the DP and I had a point of 4. He layed $2000 and then bet a $200 hard 4. I hit it soft. He's a great example of win big or lose big.

Quote: PBguy

There's a guy that plays frequently that does the same thing. He'll lay the 4 or 10 for $800 to cover his place bets. If one of the place bets hits then he'll drop them down quite a bit and take the lay down. So he starts with something like $405 across with the $800 lay then if one of the place bets hit he takes the lay down and reduces his bets to something like $110 inside.

Sometimes it works great but when it doesn't it gets expensive quickly.

I cost him $2700 on a single roll one time when he bet $500 on the DP and I had a point of 4. He layed $2000 and then bet a $200 hard 4. I hit it soft. He's a great example of win big or lose big.

its more win small or lose BIG

"Yeah but if they seven out he gets his money back."

Hedges don't work. Every bet carries a house advantage, except for odds. A Lay bet behind the 4 carries a 2.44% edge (per bet resolved, vig paid up front). When they roll that 4 he's losing a bunch of money.

I think people who hedge their bets are rather uncomfortable gambling, either at all or at the amounts they're betting.

Just the same, when playing a long roll in bubble craps I keep expecting the 7 to wipe me out (pass line and 2 come bets plus perhaps the 6 and 8 placed). When this happens, I keep wanting to place some money on the Any 7 bet as a hedge. That's when I tell myself "If you're so afraid of the seven, Self, then take down what action you can take down."

Of course I know the most likely result is I'll lose a bunch of Any 7 bets before one hits and the hedge will have cost me more money than it saves. Therefore I don't place any money on it. But the temptation seems justified. I also haven't taken down any odds bets or place bets. In a long roll you know after winning a great deal you'll lose a small bunch of bets when the roll comes to an end. It's just the nature of the beast.

Quote: AcesAndEights

"Yeah but if they seven out he gets his money back."

Hedges don't work. Every bet carries a house advantage, except for odds. A Lay bet behind the 4 carries a 2.44% edge (per bet resolved, vig paid up front). When they roll that 4 he's losing a bunch of money.

About the false claim, "Hedges don't work."

They do work, or they wouldn't exist at all. But I think I know what you are thinking, and what I think you are thinking is in the Wizard's Ten Commandments, "Thou shalt not hedge."

But that's a different statement entirely.

Hedges do work.

And house edges work too.

Combine a hedge with an edge and at the far extreme you end up with zero chance to win and only paying the edge. Such is the case when betting red and black for equal amounts on roulette.

But, as I outlined above, betting a combined bet to push on a hard four to effectively lay the easy four is still better than some place bets (for example, a $5 place bet on any number is a worse bet than this bet by the percentages).

Hedging does in fact work in craps. And as a matter of fact, hedging with a bet that carries a 2.78% edge per roll can still be quite effective and lower percentage bet than other bets marked on the felt.

You are always gambling on each toss of the dice. And if you like to play the game where you are guessing what the outcome might be on the toss of the dice instead of the game where you try to minimize the house edge percentage and never tip the dealers a dime to save yourself every penny like a stingy little penny pinching internet-learned gambling nerd, you might not be able to have that much fun playing and maybe should just play online gambling where you don't have to tip and maybe you can use your computer to help you accomplish your tiny-edge zero tipping policy.

But if you go up to a craps table and you know your math really well, and you never bet the place bet on the five or the place bet on the nine, and you pull one of these combined bets to lay the four, someone else who is watching isn't necessarily going to say "ONLY AN IDIOT BETS THE HARDWAY" when the guy is more than likely just following up on a hunch that there won't be an easy four and want to play the game accordingly.

Nothing wrong with having fun by gambling based on what you think is going to happen in the future.

That is the game. Guess the future and bet accordingly.

Not ridicule people who put a chip on a bet that has a 2.78% edge per roll without regard for the total action on the table that are also affected by the same outcome.

You might as well ridicule people for tipping. By the numbers, tipping is generally much less intelligent than the guy smart enough to never tip ever.

I see some folks who are complete new players that bet continuous come with odds and don't work their odds on the comeout, too. Better to work odds on comeout or otherwise bet the don'ts. The difference in average edge per roll from not working odds on the comeout is probably larger than the difference we are talking about here if you think about it. But similarly, that's an error where you focus on a percentage number (0.4% per roll compared to something 0.2% or lower with odds). If you look at percentage alone without regards to the total action, you can be misled into thinking something is stupid that really isn't all that bad. My personal opinion is that once your combined action gets above 1% per roll, you are sort of making it too hard to win. But that's just my opinion. And similarly, when you're worrying about 0.5% to 0.1% and putting ten times as much money out there to get to 0.1% and you might not really want to gamble that much, that's just as big of a potential problem as betting 1/6th of your action on hardways. Maybe even BIGGER(??)

The specific case we're talking about here one bet is 0.4% per roll and one bet is 2.78% per roll. But the cost for the two legs is identical. So with the hedge, the cost doubles, but as a fraction of the action, it's still lower then 1% per roll.

Hedging


Hedging is a bet like any other, and i imagine a math genius could get good enough
to find a window for winning some. I am not nearly smart enough to do that.

But then there are other hedges based on the flow of the game. When there are lots of 7's on the come
out i have seen people win by laying the 4 or 10 . I have not done that, but i have seen others win
for a short time.

Still there are other hedges that insure some profit. Hedge the last number of a 6 point fire bet if
the number is 5,6,8,9, no matter what happens you will win. Last number for the all/tall/small
in a similar situation if you have a high bet on the all.

There are people that make things work on a craps table that others think are not what we would
do, but it is their money.

dicesetter

Hedging is one way to collect a win after you have already won that you might not otherwise be able to accomplish if the winnings are locked up into a contract bet.

Such is the case with a don't come, a fire bet, an all-tall, all-small, all-or-nothing-at-all bet.

If you goal is to win a smaller amount than the payoff on a bet that is less likely to pay, hedging can help you collect the winnings.

And yeah. It works.

Quote: dicesitter

But then there are other hedges based on the flow of the game. When there are lots of 7's on the come
out i have seen people win by laying the 4 or 10 . I have not done that, but i have seen others win
for a short time.

Now, that's interesting and something I'd never considered doing.

I have to make a note to try it next time I play bubble craps. After trying it on WIncraps first.

Quote:

There are people that make things work on a craps table that others think are not what we would
do, but it is their money.

Yes indeed. Still, when I see people at bubble craps playing to place all numbers and maybe a field bet, I kind of wish they'd play smarter. Not only do they carry a higher house edge than if they were playing pass and come with odds, but even when they win they get paid less. I wonder is they higher hit rate makes them feel better, at least.

Here's a hedge that I know nobody will agree with but it's worked twice, and the money I made from the two times it worked has far exceeded the money I lost when it did not work and I got cleaned out.

A couple of times I was losing my ass playing the don't pass, so I decided to switch things up a little because they were rolling lots of numbers. I hopped the 7's on the come out roll for $15, and I bet $100 on the don't pass and laid $100 to $200 worth of odds. I then bought either the 5 or 9 for $30 and I placed a six and 8 for $30 each. I made money if they rolled a couple of numbers and 7'd out, I made money if they 7'd out without rolling a number. After I broke even on my place and buy bets, I would take my odds down. I know people will laugh at the idea of taking down a bet without a house edge, but I wanted to minimize the amount of money I had invested in the roll.

Anyways I made $2,500 a couple of days ago doing this. One shooter made 3 points, which would have normally cost me hundreds of dollars, however this was an extremely hot roll where they rolled tons of numbers so I had my 6 pressed up to $120, My 8 was pressed up to $480, which it hit once, and I had a $150 buy bet on the 9, which also hit. On the last point the point was 5 so I decided to lay $300 worth of odds on top of my $100 flat bet thinking if they continued rolling I would make it back easily as my bets were pressed up significantly.

Also on rolls where somebody went straight out quickly I would win my $100 flat bet and my odds would cover the 3 place and buy bets I had.

There were two times I got killed using this strategy. I was on a table twice where they rolling nothing but points, and hardly any numbers. But the $2,500 profit I made a few days ago is more than the losses I had the other days.

The other time I used this strategy was at a $10 table and I was down to my last $100 so I had a $30 don't pass bet and a $12 6 and a $12 8 and my chips just kept growing where I got up to $900.

The other two times I got killed because the shooters were rolling very few 6's and 8's and all kinds of points.

I'm not saying this is a great strategy, just that this has worked for me very well a couple of sessions. I only plan to use it if I'm getting crushed playing the don't pass