Martin1024
Martin1024
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May 20th, 2014 at 1:44:27 PM permalink
Hello I'm new to this forum this is my first post.

I know that the best bet are the pass come don't pass don't come with free odds, and that place bets have a higher house edge.
But one of the things I have noticed is that the place bets pay on one hit and come needs two.

So let's say I bet $5 on the DP, after the come out the point is now 4 so I lay Max odds.
Now I place the 5 6 8 & 9 for $5 and $6 respectably and other $5 on the DC.

Now lets say next roll is a 9 and it pays me $7 and the DC now is the 9. So now I take down the place 9 and with those $7 I got I can use them as free odds without having to use my original bankroll. I repeat until I have two come bets wit Max odds and take down the remaining place bets and wait for the seven out.

The only drawback would be sevening out before the 2 come bets are up, but the DP wit odds can lesser the blow.

I don't believe in systems but I want to at least have a strategy. What do you think, should I stick with only the DP DC or would this also work?
RS
RS
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May 20th, 2014 at 2:32:35 PM permalink
It wouldn't be bad. Seen some people do it before.

What would you do if the shooter hits repeaters?
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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May 20th, 2014 at 3:26:22 PM permalink
sounds like you like hedging. That lowers the variance alright, and that seems like your friend, but it is not your friend. It's negative expectation and your only chance is variance. If you want to tone down the variance, just play 2x on the free odds or something. Betting less. Players betting more to reduce variance is a wet dream for the House.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
Martin1024
Martin1024
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May 22nd, 2014 at 11:36:07 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

sounds like you like hedging. That lowers the variance alright, and that seems like your friend, but it is not your friend. It's negative expectation and your only chance is variance. If you want to tone down the variance, just play 2x on the free odds or something. Betting less. Players betting more to reduce variance is a wet dream for the House.



Not exactly hedging, I'm more interested on getting the most money on every roll. Let's look at it with come bets instead of DC.

I play $5 on the pass line and roll a 10 on the come out and take Max odds ( on my local casino is 2X). Now to win a come bet I have to place $5 come bet roll a six take $10 Max odds, then roll a second six to win a total of $17.
Now if after the point has been established I place $5 and $6 bets on the 5 6 8 9 and another $5 on the come, If I roll a six now I'll be payed $7, I take down the place bet and use it to take the $10 odds. If I roll another six I'll get the $17 for the come bet and odds plus another $7 for the place bet and a total of $24. I know Im exposed to an early seven out but I'm also exposed with only the come bets any way.

As for repeaters I think once I have 2 comes up I'll take down the other place bets and won't set them up again until I have made those 3 points or seven out. I'm also thinking of just placing 6&8 because of the high HE on the 5&9.

I know I suffer from a higher combined house edge but wouldn't help me increase my bank roll on the short term? Every opinion is appreciated.
GWAE
GWAE
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May 22nd, 2014 at 12:40:19 PM permalink
Well it could help you increase your bankroll quickly or you could blow through $200 in 15 min.
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
Martin1024
Martin1024
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May 22nd, 2014 at 1:00:53 PM permalink
Quote: GWAE

Well it could help you increase your bankroll quickly or you could blow through $200 in 15 min.



So better stick with only come bets?
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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May 22nd, 2014 at 1:09:25 PM permalink
Quote: Martin1024

I know I suffer from a higher combined house edge



It's not just that, but that each bet has a negative expectation. Thus a player needs to realize that when some combination of bets seems attractive, he is still up against that. Look at all the myriad combinations of bets the House is up against, Holy Mackeral! Yet those folks seem to come out alright.

Sometimes a poster reveals he has come up with a combination that would be unbeatable, except rarely. This can twist your mind. Generally, when you start pondering "OK this combination wins this amount, loses that amount, I put up this and win that blah blah" just realize you automatically are on the wrong track. Don't try to figure out whether your own, or somebody else's combination of bets could be worthwhile is my advice.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
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