What is the liklihood of increasing your bankroll 10 fold?

Quote: Buzzard

Considering you just did it, I think it's very close to 100%

Quote: mikeabiomed

Just go in with a good attitude

Quote: longtimelancer

OK. So I am curious to learn how lucky I was Friday night at the Mirage.

Quote: longtimelancer

What are the chances of winning 100 units with a 10-unit bankroll on a 1-unit table laying full 3-4-5X odds on the don't?

Also, with 0 odds?

Quote: mustangsally

answer first
what do you think are the chances?
Sally

Quote: longtimelancer

I was betting continuous don't come (and don't pass) with full 345 odds on a $15 dollar table. I won exactly $2055 with a bank roll of $200.

I will guess a 1 in 10 chance.

Why would it make a difference if I was betting don't come or only don't pass? I thought the only difference for my chances was in how long it takes to get there.

Quote: AxelWolf

I want to point out that ATTITUDE really has nothing to do with gambling. Unless a bad attitude causes you to not play your best ( Like make mistakes on VP) or it makes you get foolish(bet more then you can deal with). Live poker others may pick up on emotion and it could affect you.

Sure attitude can affect how much fun you have while playing. Just don't fool yourself into thinking if you have a great attitude the cards will fall your way.

I have made some plays where i had a bad attitude thinking I was probably going to get my ass kicked, or never in a million years hit my target, but then won big. I have also played stuff I thought for sure I would crush it, but lots my ass.

the machines, cards, dice don't care about or feel your attitude. Attitude can't change the outcome of gambling if you play properly everything will somehow work out. In the long run the odds and length of play will usually dictate what the outcome will be. Play -EV and long enough and -EV will come. Play +EV long enough and money will come. Life and gambling all averages out. The better situations you put yourself in, the more chances you have at success and visa versa.

Some people win forever, some people lose forever.

Some people get lucky and are born into a great life and live long. Some are born poor die tragically. Some people hit the lottery and win millions, some people hit hit by a car and are messed up forever. Some people work hard and are more likely to get everything they ever wanted, but life is a gamble and anything can happen.

Quote: longtimelancer

I was betting continuous don't come (and don't pass) with full 345 odds on a $15 dollar table. I won exactly $2055 with a bank roll of $200.

Quote: longtimelancer

I will guess a 1 in 10 chance.

Quote: longtimelancer

What are the chances of winning 100 units with a 10-unit bankroll on a 1-unit table laying full 3-4-5X odds on the don't?

Quote: longtimelancer

Also, with 0 odds?

Quote: Ahigh

Anecdotally I have seen two people simultaneously take $25 (plus vigs) to $8,000 (two final hits with $2,000 fours each -- pass limit was $1,000 and they still took a $2,000 four from two people at once) each with full pressure at the California Casino. They had to fetch more purples they won so much. Those were two happy campers.

Quote: Buzzard

Once upon a time there was this TV western RAWHIDE. Eric Fleming had been beaten as a child and ran away from home as a kid Rough times. Then he was a Seabee and on a dare lifted a 200lb weight that fell on his face. Severe injuries and almost lost an eye.
But after facial reconstruction, he became an actor and had the lead as Gil Favor in Rawhide.

Clint Eastwood rode his bike across a Piedmont High School football field and tore up the turf. So instead he had to enroll in a Technical school, where a teacher interested him in acting. He played Rowdy Yates on Rawhide.

When that series was cancelled, Eric turned down a role in A Fistful of Dollars. MGM had offered him a starring role in High Jungle.
Fistful was to be filmed in a remote part of Spain but an unknown at the time Sergio Leone. Clint Eastwood took that offer.

High Jungle was to be filmed in Peru. During the final stages of shooting, Eric's dugout canoe overturned in the Huallaga River. Fleming was swept away by the current and drowned on September 28, 1966, he was 41 when he died. He had planned to marry and become a teacher when the film was completed. His will left money to his mother, his cousin and a friend. But specifically excluded his father from any bequest. He is buried on the grounds of the University of Peru in Lima, Peru.

I have no idea what became of Clint Eastwood !

#!/usr/bin/perl

$maxhits = 13;
print <<'EOF';

Each stage, once arrived, lasts on average 36/9 or 4 rolls.
Each roll there is a 1/3 chance of going to the next stage
Each roll there is a 2/3 chance of going back to stage 1
EOF

sub epb
{
	my( $amt ) = @_;
	my( $mod ) = $amt % 100;
	my( $frac ) = $mod == $amt ? 1 : $mod / ( $amt - $mod );
	my( $norm ) = (5/300) * ( 1 - $frac );
	if( $mod == 25 || $mod == 50 )
	{
		return ( $norm + (1/75) * $frac );
	}
	elsif( $mod == 75 )
	{
		return ( $norm + (4/225) * $frac );
	}
}

for( $i=1; $i<$maxhits; $i++ )
{
	my( $amt ) = 25;
	my( $frac ) = (2/3);
	for( $j=1; $j<$i; $j++ )
	{
		$amt *= 3;
		$frac *= (1/3);
	}
	$frac[$i] = $frac;
	$amt[$i] = $amt;
	$edge[$i] = (&epb($amt))/4;
	$cost[$i] = (&epb($amt)*$amt)/4;
	$cost2hit[$i] = (($i>1)?$cost2hit[$i-1]:0)+int(&epb($amt[$j]) * $amt[$j] * 3);
	printf( "Stage%d: %d four %.6f%% * %d = \$%.4f per roll - frac %.4f\n",
	   	$i, $amt, 100*$edge[$i], $amt, $cost[$i], $frac[$i] );
}

for( $i=2; $i<$maxhits; $i++ )
{
	printf( "Cost of pressing \$25 to \$%d: ", $amt[$i] );
	my( $cpr ) = 0;
	my( $bet ) = 0;
	for( $j=1; $j<$i; $j++ )
	{
		$cpr += $cost[$j] * $frac[$j];
		$bet += $amt[$j] * $frac[$j];
	}
	$cpr += $cost[$i-1] * $frac[$i-1] * (1/3)*(3/2);
	$bet += $amt[$i-1] * $frac[$i-1] * (1/3)*(3/2);

	printf( "\$%.4f, ", $cpr );
	printf( "bet \$%.4f, ", $bet );
	printf( "edge %0.4f%%\n", 100*$cpr/$bet );

	my( $coststr ) = "";
	my( $nroll2hit ) = 1/(3**($i-1));

	for( $j=1; $j<$i; $j++ )
	{
		$coststr .= " + " if( $coststr ne "" );
		$coststr .= sprintf( "%.0f", &epb($amt[$j]) * $amt[$j] * 3 );
	}

	my $winrun = eval $coststr;
	printf( "Total vig for winning run (minimum cost):\n   *** $coststr = %s\n", $winrun );
	printf( "Chance to hit is 1/%d\n", (3**($i-1)) );
	printf( "Average cost to hit is \$%.4f over %d rolls = \$%.0f\n", $cpr, 4*(3**($i-1)), $cpr * 4*(3**($i-1)));

	my $totalcost = $cpr * 4*(3**($i-1));
	printf( "Compound edge is %d / %d = %0.4f%%\n", $totalcost, $amt[$i], 100 * $totalcost / $amt[$i] );
	print "\n";
}

Quote: Output

Each stage, once arrived, lasts on average 36/9 or 4 rolls.
Each roll there is a 1/3 chance of going to the next stage
Each roll there is a 2/3 chance of going back to stage 1
Stage1: 25 four 0.333333% * 25 = $0.0833 per roll - frac 0.6667
Stage2: 75 four 0.444444% * 75 = $0.3333 per roll - frac 0.2222
Stage3: 225 four 0.406250% * 225 = $0.9141 per roll - frac 0.0741
Stage4: 675 four 0.420139% * 675 = $2.8359 per roll - frac 0.0247
Stage5: 2025 four 0.415625% * 2025 = $8.4164 per roll - frac 0.0082
Stage6: 6075 four 0.417014% * 6075 = $25.3336 per roll - frac 0.0027
Stage7: 18225 four 0.416552% * 18225 = $75.9166 per roll - frac 0.0009
Stage8: 54675 four 0.416705% * 54675 = $227.8334 per roll - frac 0.0003
Stage9: 164025 four 0.416654% * 164025 = $683.4167 per roll - frac 0.0001
Stage10: 492075 four 0.416671% * 492075 = $2050.3333 per roll - frac 0.0000
Stage11: 1476225 four 0.416665% * 1476225 = $6150.9167 per roll - frac 0.0000
Stage12: 4428675 four 0.416667% * 4428675 = $18452.8333 per roll - frac 0.0000
Cost of pressing $25 to $75: $0.0833, bet $25.0000, edge 0.3333%
Total vig for winning run (minimum cost):
*** 1 = 1
Chance to hit is 1/3
Average cost to hit is $0.0833 over 12 rolls = $1
Compound edge is 1 / 75 = 1.3333%

Cost of pressing $25 to $225: $0.1667, bet $41.6667, edge 0.4000%
Total vig for winning run (minimum cost):
*** 1 + 4 = 5
Chance to hit is 1/9
Average cost to hit is $0.1667 over 36 rolls = $6
Compound edge is 6 / 225 = 2.6667%

Cost of pressing $25 to $675: $0.2312, bet $58.3333, edge 0.3963%
Total vig for winning run (minimum cost):
*** 1 + 4 + 11 = 16
Chance to hit is 1/27
Average cost to hit is $0.2312 over 108 rolls = $25
Compound edge is 24 / 675 = 3.6991%

Cost of pressing $25 to $2025: $0.3024, bet $75.0000, edge 0.4032%
Total vig for winning run (minimum cost):
*** 1 + 4 + 11 + 34 = 50
Chance to hit is 1/81
Average cost to hit is $0.3024 over 324 rolls = $98
Compound edge is 97 / 2025 = 4.8380%

Cost of pressing $25 to $6075: $0.3713, bet $91.6667, edge 0.4050%
Total vig for winning run (minimum cost):
*** 1 + 4 + 11 + 34 + 101 = 151
Chance to hit is 1/243
Average cost to hit is $0.3713 over 972 rolls = $361
Compound edge is 360 / 6075 = 5.9403%

Cost of pressing $25 to $18225: $0.4409, bet $108.3333, edge 0.4070%
Total vig for winning run (minimum cost):
*** 1 + 4 + 11 + 34 + 101 + 304 = 455
Chance to hit is 1/729
Average cost to hit is $0.4409 over 2916 rolls = $1286
Compound edge is 1285 / 18225 = 7.0542%

Cost of pressing $25 to $54675: $0.5103, bet $125.0000, edge 0.4082%
Total vig for winning run (minimum cost):
*** 1 + 4 + 11 + 34 + 101 + 304 + 911 = 1366
Chance to hit is 1/2187
Average cost to hit is $0.5103 over 8748 rolls = $4464
Compound edge is 4463 / 54675 = 8.1644%

Cost of pressing $25 to $164025: $0.5797, bet $141.6667, edge 0.4092%
Total vig for winning run (minimum cost):
*** 1 + 4 + 11 + 34 + 101 + 304 + 911 + 2734 = 4100
Chance to hit is 1/6561
Average cost to hit is $0.5797 over 26244 rolls = $15215
Compound edge is 15214 / 164025 = 9.2758%

Cost of pressing $25 to $492075: $0.6492, bet $158.3333, edge 0.4100%
Total vig for winning run (minimum cost):
*** 1 + 4 + 11 + 34 + 101 + 304 + 911 + 2734 + 8201 = 12301
Chance to hit is 1/19683
Average cost to hit is $0.6492 over 78732 rolls = $51111
Compound edge is 51110 / 492075 = 10.3868%

Cost of pressing $25 to $1476225: $0.7186, bet $175.0000, edge 0.4106%
Total vig for winning run (minimum cost):
*** 1 + 4 + 11 + 34 + 101 + 304 + 911 + 2734 + 8201 + 24604 = 36905
Chance to hit is 1/59049
Average cost to hit is $0.7186 over 236196 rolls = $169735
Compound edge is 169735 / 1476225 = 11.4979%

Cost of pressing $25 to $4428675: $0.7881, bet $191.6667, edge 0.4112%
Total vig for winning run (minimum cost):
*** 1 + 4 + 11 + 34 + 101 + 304 + 911 + 2734 + 8201 + 24604 + 73811 = 110716
Chance to hit is 1/177147
Average cost to hit is $0.7881 over 708588 rolls = $558413
Compound edge is 558412 / 4428675 = 12.6090%

Quote: mikeabiomed

Axel,

That was my point exactly. No one can predict the how the cards fall, how your health will be, or how one's career will evolve, or anything short of making it through the day, but I will relate to your first two paragraphs and try to separate gambling from a typical day in the life. Overall, optimistic people have better attitudes and cope with disappointment much easier knowing they can't change the world or the outcome. In no way was I trying to say that "a good attitude" would bring feeling into the cards, dice, etc. After 40+ years of gambling and seeing the highs and lows, I try to just choose the good attitude route win, lose or draw. After all, if your attitude is poor, why do it at all? Thanks for the post.

Mike