mustangsally
mustangsally
Joined: Mar 29, 2011
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April 26th, 2014 at 9:29:27 AM permalink
Quote: dicesitter

While i do not agree with Frank about everything, his statement that the five count can get you on more
hot shooters is a fact.

funny
no such thing as a "hot shooter"
for that fact
no such thing as a "cold shooter" either

believing in hot and cold shooters IS believing in the hot-hand fallacy
Just another chapter in the book of the Gambler's Fallacy.

But it is OK to believe in things that we do not understand or think we understand.
as it just might make us feel better.

see your thread
http://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/craps/14166-5-count/

I show two other *shooter select systems* that both have a lower expected loss than the 5-Count.

same $ bets and same type bets
I am impressed as the ideas were not mine, but the math is

The nature of the 5-count is to bet, on average, less rolls per shooter
as only 48.6373314% of all shooters do not qualify for the 5 count.

some say and the math also proves
The 6 roll count is better than the 5-count in finding the *hot shooters"
that should be discussed in your other thread

here we talk about the odds of 2 5pt FBs in 2 hours of play.
I say less than 1 in 4,000
others might say something way different

Sally
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Mission146
Mission146
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April 26th, 2014 at 10:56:01 AM permalink
Quote: mustangsally

what you are suggesting is to arrive at a probability after the fact.
you want all the data first
This is not they way probability is done.

You are now after just a statistic.



I understand what you are saying, but I am after a probability. I want to figure out how many attempts were made to hit the five-point Fire Bet in this time and then to determine the probability of hitting it within that number of attempts. I agree that the probability of hitting it in any individual attempt is unchanged, and I also agree that the probability for average rolls per shooter is unchanged, but I do believe that there is sufficient information to surmise that the average number of rolls per shooter was greater than expected in that two hour period, and if so, there were clearly less attempts made to win on the Fire Bet than there normally would be.

Quote:

The average number of rolls per shooter is always a constant with 2 fair dice
because
it comes from the distribution of the length of a shooters hand. By the rules of the game of Craps.



What I meant by the statement is that the constant doesn't necessarily hold in a limited sample. The mean can be greater within that sample, and given that we know two five-point Fire Bets were hit, just with that information (combined with the size of the sample-i.e.-two hours) I believe there is sufficient information to conclude that the mean rolls-per-shooter in that two hour period was greater than the probabilistic average.

For instance, if I am playing a Video Poker game that returns 98.44%, then yes, that is the long-term return of the game. However, if I say that I played 500 hands and hit a Royal Flush, we have sufficient information to conclude that my sample size of 500 exceeded the Expected Return, because anything else is impossible.

Quote:

added: the monster rolls - the 50, 60 and even the 100 roll hands are included in the 8.5255 value
the average number of shooters over any 2 hour period is a variable. again this is easy to imagine.
I think you want to know the number of shooters and the number of rolls so you can get a probability from the actual session.
The OP asked a different question I think.



Yes, that's exactly what I want to know. Like I said, I don't disagree with your point, I think we just wanted to know two different things.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Ahigh
Ahigh
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April 26th, 2014 at 11:01:02 AM permalink
Quote: mustangsally

funny
no such thing as a "hot shooter"
for that fact
no such thing as a "cold shooter" either



mustangsally is correct.

I suppose in your world, this is what you call a tautology.
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AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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April 26th, 2014 at 11:12:55 AM permalink
Quote: mustangsally

funny
no such thing as a "hot shooter"
for that fact
no such thing as a "cold shooter" either

believing in hot and cold shooters IS believing in the hot-hand fallacy
Just another chapter in the book of the Gambler's Fallacy.

But it is OK to believe in things that we do not understand or think we understand.
as it just might make us feel better.

This is absolutely true.(Until after the fact) I don't understand how people can think anything different. I see guys that are VERY gifted in math yet they still believe in this hogwash.

I have noticed even people who understand all of this and don't believe in hot or cold tables/shooters, tend to give into it while playing craps. The longer they have been playing craps the more they start believing in Hot and Cold shooters, next thing we know they are convinced its true.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
Ahigh
Ahigh
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April 26th, 2014 at 11:22:56 AM permalink
There is also no such thing as a hot poster. At least on this forum. Again, as AxelWolf mentions, that is true, until "after the fact."
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AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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April 26th, 2014 at 11:26:20 AM permalink
Quote: Ahigh

There is also no such thing as a hot poster. At least on this forum. Again, as AxelWolf mentions, that is true, until "after the fact."

Are you still playing craps? I now look occasionally to see if you are shooting Downtown while passing by the tables.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
dicesitter
dicesitter
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April 26th, 2014 at 12:56:49 PM permalink
mustangsally



Your playing word games again........ To the majority of craps player a guy that had just had a very good
roll is was hot , on fire etc., and during the roll others players will say this guy is hot or what ever term you want to use.

That does not mean he was hot the time before or will ever be again, but he has going or has just
had a very good roll.

The 5-count for most people will allow them to stay at the table longer, which allows more time to
be there during a good roll. You can use any term you want, but i would rather be at the table for a
40 roll than seven rolls of 3.

Now as far as the number of rolls , whether it is 3 or 4 or 5 or 6 ..it matters not. The people that would deride
anyone for coming up with any idea would complain whether he called it the 4 count or 5 count or 6 count.

The point is simple is it not, the longer you are at the table the better chance you have a seeing a good roll.

There are a hell of a lot of worse ideas floating around these forums.


dicesetter
mustangsally
mustangsally
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April 26th, 2014 at 1:21:25 PM permalink
Quote: dicesitter

Your playing word games again........ To the majority of craps player a guy that had just had a very good
roll is was hot , on fire etc., and during the roll others players will say this guy is hot or what ever term you want to use.

That does not mean he was hot the time before or will ever be again, but he has going or has just
had a very good roll.

what is Hot or cold or choppy or a *good roll* to one is not hot or COLD or choppy or a *good roll* to another.

so it is you that is playing word games.
It is fun.

I would LOVE to know that the next 7 shooters will 7 out on their 3rd roll.
I (my syndicate) would take a lot of the casinos money and be a proven Craps winner for that session.
The right way bettors would just run and hide with their eyes closed.

Quote: dicesitter

The 5-count for most people will allow them to stay at the table longer, which allows more time to
be there during a good roll.

The 6 Roll Count does that and more
and loses less than the 5-Count during any shooter's hand. Just wait 6 rolls and start betting on that shooter.
many will not qualify to bet on.
Recall those 100 million blind squirrels I have spoken about. over 1 million of them passed the Smart Craps Pro test
and many with less than just 500 rolls.
WOW!
yes, I agree
and many had *good rolls* ... a few over 100 rolls in ONE hand.
Damn!

I am still on the fence over them squirrels too.
Quote: dicesitter

The point is simple is it not, the longer you are at the table the better chance you have a seeing a good roll.

There are a hell of a lot of worse ideas floating around these forums.dicesetter

still funny stuff!
no such thing as a *good roll* either

you say words but show absolutely nothing to quantify your words.
Maybe you are really using the wrong English words here.

any roll can win any player real money if the player just bets what rolls on the very next roll.
and this is not a Venus and Mars thing.
7,11,3,2,12,7,7,7,2,12,11,7,7,11,6,7
Hot Shooter!
Rolling what are called naturals and one should win big bucks on this good roll

still funny stuff

Just bet to win and have fun doing it
a Hand by any shooter is just that.
A hand.

not good or bad or hots or trots

Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
Ahigh
Ahigh
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April 26th, 2014 at 2:53:40 PM permalink
I would like to see a live video of Sally meeting DiceSitter in the casino talking about these subjects. I wonder if they met they would continue these exchanges online.
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AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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April 26th, 2014 at 3:07:48 PM permalink
Can somebody tell me the edge in craps is if you know what one die will be in advance of betting? Like if they had a promotion that came up randomy through out the HR. toss dice one at a time.... make a bet after you seen first die rolled. So at times you would already have bets going. So koading up on pass or dont pass wouldn't be viable all the time
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪

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