SGIT
Joined: Apr 1, 2014
• Posts: 50
April 26th, 2014 at 1:06:32 AM permalink
...of hitting TWO 5 point fire bets within two hours??? Happened at Green Valley Ranch tonight... just sick 😁
Mission146
Joined: May 15, 2012
• Posts: 15308
April 26th, 2014 at 6:47:50 AM permalink
Quote: SGIT

...of hitting TWO 5 point fire bets within two hours??? Happened at Green Valley Ranch tonight... just sick 😁

Have to figure out how many, "First rolls," into the Fire Bet there were, I don't suppose you kept track, did you?
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
SGIT
Joined: Apr 1, 2014
• Posts: 50
April 26th, 2014 at 7:10:10 AM permalink
Quote: Mission146

Have to figure out how many, "First rolls," into the Fire Bet there were, I don't suppose you kept track, did you?

The first one I made 3 points (5, 6 & 8) before repeating the 6 & 8 and finally making the 4 & 10 before seven out. Pretty sure the second shooter made two points (6 & 8), then repeated them before making the 4, 5 and 9. IIRC, the shooter hit every point (except ten) at least twice before the seven out came.
mustangsally
Joined: Mar 29, 2011
• Posts: 2463
April 26th, 2014 at 7:15:21 AM permalink
The probability of hitting a 5 point FB = about .001639933139 or 1 in 610 shooters

How about 1 roll per minute = 60 rolls an hour or 120 rolls per 2 hours
The average number of rolls per shooter is about 8.5255
The Binomial distribution will work here as well as the Poisson

1.5 rolls per minute = 90 rolls per hour or 180 rolls per 2 hours

2 rolls per minute = 120 rolls per hour or 240 rolls per 2 hours

exactly 2 in 2 hours
14: 1 in 4,167.3 2 hour sessions
21: 1 in 1,826.7
28: 1 in 1,026.6

Not at all astronomical against
sure more fun to win both times!
Sally

if this was just by the first 2 shooters try about 1 in 371,832.8
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Mission146
Joined: May 15, 2012
• Posts: 15308
April 26th, 2014 at 7:25:42 AM permalink
Sally,

That's actually why I was a bit curious about the number of, "First rolls," into it if he counted. If we assume that two five-pointers were hit in that two hours, which they were, then the number of average rolls per shooter should go up, by necessity, thus, the five-point Fire Bets would have been hit in less than the number of attempts that would normally be assumed based on # of shooters...because there should have been fewer shooters.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
mustangsally
Joined: Mar 29, 2011
• Posts: 2463
April 26th, 2014 at 7:35:09 AM permalink
Quote: Mission146

Sally,

That's actually why I was a bit curious about the number of, "First rolls," into it if he counted. If we assume that two five-pointers were hit in that two hours, which they were, then the number of average rolls per shooter should go up,

by necessity, thus, the five-point Fire Bets would have been hit in less than the number of attempts that would normally be assumed based on # of shooters...because there should have been fewer shooters.

I do not agree.
The average rolls per shooter is a constant.

The only variable is the number of shooters per 2 hours and that comes from the number of rolls per hour as asked and that is also a variable.

The probability of hitting a 5 point FB is a constant and
is not determined at all by the number of rolls needed or an average number of rolls needed.
Just the 64 possible states the FB can be in.

I think the OP may think, as many do, this event is about a million to 1 shot
I hear this in casinos all the time.
and it is not of course
but also is not an every 2 hour event also

Sally
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Mission146
Joined: May 15, 2012
• Posts: 15308
April 26th, 2014 at 7:44:31 AM permalink
Quote: mustangsally

I do not agree.
The average rolls per shooter is a constant.

It is a constant, except for when it's not. If we are looking at 8.5xxxx average rolls per shooter, but we can assume that two shooters in two hours shot the dice at least ten times, (that's the bare minimum, and they almost certainly shot more) then that's going to pull the average number of rolls per shooter up for that two-hour sample. I'm not saying it changes the average, overall, but one has to believe that the average rolls per shooter is significantly higher for that two hour sample.

For example, if we are discussing 180-240 rolls every two hours, and two shooters can account for 40-60 (more?) of them, then we have to figure that the number of shooters in that sample size is fewer and that the rolls per shooter is greater. Let's just call it 180 rolls per two hours and say that these two shooters account for forty of the rolls, argument's sake. That leaves 140 rolls that were unaccounted for, so other shooters would have to average 140/19 only 7.368 rolls per shooter for that overall average to hold in that small sample size.

Quote:

The only variable is the number of shooters per 2 hours and that comes from the number of rolls per hour as asked and that is also a variable.

The probability of hitting a 5 point FB is a constant and
is not determined at all by the number of rolls needed or an average number of rolls needed.
Just the 64 possible states the FB can be in.

That's not what I am suggesting, I'm merely suggesting that, if the number of rolls/shooter was greater than average in this two hour sample, then one can assume that the number of shooters was fewer, thus there were fewer opportunities to make a five-point FB (first rolls) and as a result, it would be less likely.

For the record, since we don't know the number of, "First rolls," I agree with your process 100%. I'm just stating that if we had that information, we could give an exact probability of occurrence within that number of attempts.

Quote:

I think the OP may think, as many do, this event is about a million to 1 shot
You hear this in casinos all the time.
and it is not of course
but also is not a every 2 hour event also

Sally

Agreed, 100%.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
mustangsally
Joined: Mar 29, 2011
• Posts: 2463
April 26th, 2014 at 8:11:34 AM permalink
Quote: Mission146

It is a constant, except for when it's not. If we are looking at 8.5xxxx average rolls per shooter, but we can assume that two shooters in two hours shot the dice at least ten times, (that's the bare minimum, and they almost certainly shot more) then that's going to pull the average number of rolls per shooter up for that two-hour sample. I'm not saying it changes the average, overall, but one has to believe that the average rolls per shooter is significantly higher for that two hour sample.

what you are suggesting is to arrive at a probability after the fact.
you want all the data first
This is not they way probability is done.

You are now after just a statistic.

I went over this for 10 straight days in my stats and probability class until it dawned on me the difference between the two.

"It is a constant, except for when it's not."

This is so funny!

The average number of rolls per shooter is always a constant with 2 fair dice
because
it comes from the distribution of the length of a shooters hand. By the rules of the game of Craps.

added: the monster rolls - the 50, 60 and even the 100 roll hands are included in the 8.5255 value
the average number of shooters over any 2 hour period is a variable. again this is easy to imagine.
I think you want to know the number of shooters and the number of rolls so you can get a probability from the actual session.
The OP asked a different question I think.

hehe
Next you will be agreeing with Frank Scoblete that the 5-Count actually gets you on the "hot shooters".

Clearly the "hot-hand fallacy" under the heading of the Gambler's Fallacy

Sally

added: I see to OP in a different thread said this was over 4 shooters
so now are we cherry picking the number of shooters the OP saw total

final answer is all we need to know is the number of shooters and the probability of hitting a 5 point FB
the formula is that easy as you know
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Ahigh
Joined: May 19, 2010
• Posts: 5169
April 26th, 2014 at 8:42:16 AM permalink
If I bet \$50 I can roll a four or a ten before a seven, what is the chance that I will succeed?

If I wish to double my money from success, how close to that goal can I get in the casino?

What is the house edge for such a gamble once I have succeeded or failed to accomplish my goal?

Is my goal considered one bet or two bets?
http://dumbass.website
dicesitter
Joined: Jan 17, 2013
• Posts: 1157
April 26th, 2014 at 9:08:30 AM permalink
Mustangsally

While i do not agree with Frank about everything, his statement that the five count can get you on more
hot shooters is a fact.

Now notice that i did not say the 5 count helps you make more money on every roller, or that it will make you
a winner over-all....... it wont, if the roll ends up being a 10 ROLL, and there were 4 9's hit and three were before
you bet it will cost you some money, it will save you money if you are one of those immediate across betters, and
if you use it, it will give you more time at the table and a better chance of being there during a hot roll. Now you
can say well that does not place you on more hot rollers, well that is just a word game, if the hot roller is rolling
i want to be there no matter how that happened.

dicesetter