What are the odds...

...of hitting TWO 5 point fire bets within two hours??? Happened at Green Valley Ranch tonight... just sick 😁

Quote: SGIT

...of hitting TWO 5 point fire bets within two hours??? Happened at Green Valley Ranch tonight... just sick 😁

Have to figure out how many, "First rolls," into the Fire Bet there were, I don't suppose you kept track, did you?

Quote: Mission146

Have to figure out how many, "First rolls," into the Fire Bet there were, I don't suppose you kept track, did you?

The first one I made 3 points (5, 6 & 8) before repeating the 6 & 8 and finally making the 4 & 10 before seven out. Pretty sure the second shooter made two points (6 & 8), then repeated them before making the 4, 5 and 9. IIRC, the shooter hit every point (except ten) at least twice before the seven out came.

The probability of hitting a 5 point FB = about .001639933139 or 1 in 610 shooters

How about 1 roll per minute = 60 rolls an hour or 120 rolls per 2 hours
The average number of rolls per shooter is about 8.5255
or about 14 shooters
The Binomial distribution will work here as well as the Poisson

1.5 rolls per minute = 90 rolls per hour or 180 rolls per 2 hours
or about 21 shooters

2 rolls per minute = 120 rolls per hour or 240 rolls per 2 hours
or about 28 shooters

exactly 2 in 2 hours
14: 1 in 4,167.3 2 hour sessions
21: 1 in 1,826.7
28: 1 in 1,026.6

Not at all astronomical against
sure more fun to win both times!
Sally

if this was just by the first 2 shooters try about 1 in 371,832.8

Sally,

That's actually why I was a bit curious about the number of, "First rolls," into it if he counted. If we assume that two five-pointers were hit in that two hours, which they were, then the number of average rolls per shooter should go up, by necessity, thus, the five-point Fire Bets would have been hit in less than the number of attempts that would normally be assumed based on # of shooters...because there should have been fewer shooters.

Quote: Mission146

Sally,

That's actually why I was a bit curious about the number of, "First rolls," into it if he counted. If we assume that two five-pointers were hit in that two hours, which they were, then the number of average rolls per shooter should go up,

by necessity, thus, the five-point Fire Bets would have been hit in less than the number of attempts that would normally be assumed based on # of shooters...because there should have been fewer shooters.

I do not agree.
The average rolls per shooter is a constant.

The only variable is the number of shooters per 2 hours and that comes from the number of rolls per hour as asked and that is also a variable.

The probability of hitting a 5 point FB is a constant and
is not determined at all by the number of rolls needed or an average number of rolls needed.
Just the 64 possible states the FB can be in.

I think the OP may think, as many do, this event is about a million to 1 shot
I hear this in casinos all the time.
and it is not of course
but also is not an every 2 hour event also

Sally

Quote: mustangsally

I do not agree.
The average rolls per shooter is a constant.

It is a constant, except for when it's not. If we are looking at 8.5xxxx average rolls per shooter, but we can assume that two shooters in two hours shot the dice at least ten times, (that's the bare minimum, and they almost certainly shot more) then that's going to pull the average number of rolls per shooter up for that two-hour sample. I'm not saying it changes the average, overall, but one has to believe that the average rolls per shooter is significantly higher for that two hour sample.

For example, if we are discussing 180-240 rolls every two hours, and two shooters can account for 40-60 (more?) of them, then we have to figure that the number of shooters in that sample size is fewer and that the rolls per shooter is greater. Let's just call it 180 rolls per two hours and say that these two shooters account for forty of the rolls, argument's sake. That leaves 140 rolls that were unaccounted for, so other shooters would have to average 140/19 only 7.368 rolls per shooter for that overall average to hold in that small sample size.

Quote:

The only variable is the number of shooters per 2 hours and that comes from the number of rolls per hour as asked and that is also a variable.

The probability of hitting a 5 point FB is a constant and
is not determined at all by the number of rolls needed or an average number of rolls needed.
Just the 64 possible states the FB can be in.

That's not what I am suggesting, I'm merely suggesting that, if the number of rolls/shooter was greater than average in this two hour sample, then one can assume that the number of shooters was fewer, thus there were fewer opportunities to make a five-point FB (first rolls) and as a result, it would be less likely.

For the record, since we don't know the number of, "First rolls," I agree with your process 100%. I'm just stating that if we had that information, we could give an exact probability of occurrence within that number of attempts.

Quote:

I think the OP may think, as many do, this event is about a million to 1 shot
You hear this in casinos all the time.
and it is not of course
but also is not a every 2 hour event also

Sally

Agreed, 100%.

Quote: Mission146

It is a constant, except for when it's not. If we are looking at 8.5xxxx average rolls per shooter, but we can assume that two shooters in two hours shot the dice at least ten times, (that's the bare minimum, and they almost certainly shot more) then that's going to pull the average number of rolls per shooter up for that two-hour sample. I'm not saying it changes the average, overall, but one has to believe that the average rolls per shooter is significantly higher for that two hour sample.

what you are suggesting is to arrive at a probability after the fact.
you want all the data first
This is not they way probability is done.

You are now after just a statistic.

I went over this for 10 straight days in my stats and probability class until it dawned on me the difference between the two.

"It is a constant, except for when it's not."

This is so funny!


The average number of rolls per shooter is always a constant with 2 fair dice
because
it comes from the distribution of the length of a shooters hand. By the rules of the game of Craps.

added: the monster rolls - the 50, 60 and even the 100 roll hands are included in the 8.5255 value
the average number of shooters over any 2 hour period is a variable. again this is easy to imagine.
I think you want to know the number of shooters and the number of rolls so you can get a probability from the actual session.
The OP asked a different question I think.

hehe
Next you will be agreeing with Frank Scoblete that the 5-Count actually gets you on the "hot shooters".

Clearly the "hot-hand fallacy" under the heading of the Gambler's Fallacy

Sally

added: I see to OP in a different thread said this was over 4 shooters
so now are we cherry picking the number of shooters the OP saw total

final answer is all we need to know is the number of shooters and the probability of hitting a 5 point FB
the formula is that easy as you know

If I bet $50 I can roll a four or a ten before a seven, what is the chance that I will succeed?

If I wish to double my money from success, how close to that goal can I get in the casino?

What is the house edge for such a gamble once I have succeeded or failed to accomplish my goal?

Is my goal considered one bet or two bets?

Mustangsally




While i do not agree with Frank about everything, his statement that the five count can get you on more
hot shooters is a fact.

Now notice that i did not say the 5 count helps you make more money on every roller, or that it will make you
a winner over-all....... it wont, if the roll ends up being a 10 ROLL, and there were 4 9's hit and three were before
you bet it will cost you some money, it will save you money if you are one of those immediate across betters, and
if you use it, it will give you more time at the table and a better chance of being there during a hot roll. Now you
can say well that does not place you on more hot rollers, well that is just a word game, if the hot roller is rolling
i want to be there no matter how that happened.



dicesetter

Quote: dicesitter

While i do not agree with Frank about everything, his statement that the five count can get you on more
hot shooters is a fact.

funny
no such thing as a "hot shooter"
for that fact
no such thing as a "cold shooter" either

believing in hot and cold shooters IS believing in the hot-hand fallacy
Just another chapter in the book of the Gambler's Fallacy.

But it is OK to believe in things that we do not understand or think we understand.
as it just might make us feel better.

see your thread
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/craps/14166-5-count/

I show two other *shooter select systems* that both have a lower expected loss than the 5-Count.

same $ bets and same type bets
I am impressed as the ideas were not mine, but the math is

The nature of the 5-count is to bet, on average, less rolls per shooter
as only 48.6373314% of all shooters do not qualify for the 5 count.

some say and the math also proves
The 6 roll count is better than the 5-count in finding the *hot shooters"
that should be discussed in your other thread

here we talk about the odds of 2 5pt FBs in 2 hours of play.
I say less than 1 in 4,000
others might say something way different

Sally

Quote: mustangsally

what you are suggesting is to arrive at a probability after the fact.
you want all the data first
This is not they way probability is done.

You are now after just a statistic.

I understand what you are saying, but I am after a probability. I want to figure out how many attempts were made to hit the five-point Fire Bet in this time and then to determine the probability of hitting it within that number of attempts. I agree that the probability of hitting it in any individual attempt is unchanged, and I also agree that the probability for average rolls per shooter is unchanged, but I do believe that there is sufficient information to surmise that the average number of rolls per shooter was greater than expected in that two hour period, and if so, there were clearly less attempts made to win on the Fire Bet than there normally would be.

Quote:

The average number of rolls per shooter is always a constant with 2 fair dice
because
it comes from the distribution of the length of a shooters hand. By the rules of the game of Craps.

What I meant by the statement is that the constant doesn't necessarily hold in a limited sample. The mean can be greater within that sample, and given that we know two five-point Fire Bets were hit, just with that information (combined with the size of the sample-i.e.-two hours) I believe there is sufficient information to conclude that the mean rolls-per-shooter in that two hour period was greater than the probabilistic average.

For instance, if I am playing a Video Poker game that returns 98.44%, then yes, that is the long-term return of the game. However, if I say that I played 500 hands and hit a Royal Flush, we have sufficient information to conclude that my sample size of 500 exceeded the Expected Return, because anything else is impossible.

Quote:

added: the monster rolls - the 50, 60 and even the 100 roll hands are included in the 8.5255 value
the average number of shooters over any 2 hour period is a variable. again this is easy to imagine.
I think you want to know the number of shooters and the number of rolls so you can get a probability from the actual session.
The OP asked a different question I think.

Yes, that's exactly what I want to know. Like I said, I don't disagree with your point, I think we just wanted to know two different things.

Quote: mustangsally

funny
no such thing as a "hot shooter"
for that fact
no such thing as a "cold shooter" either

mustangsally is correct.

I suppose in your world, this is what you call a tautology.

Quote: mustangsally

funny
no such thing as a "hot shooter"
for that fact
no such thing as a "cold shooter" either

believing in hot and cold shooters IS believing in the hot-hand fallacy
Just another chapter in the book of the Gambler's Fallacy.

But it is OK to believe in things that we do not understand or think we understand.
as it just might make us feel better.

This is absolutely true.(Until after the fact) I don't understand how people can think anything different. I see guys that are VERY gifted in math yet they still believe in this hogwash.

I have noticed even people who understand all of this and don't believe in hot or cold tables/shooters, tend to give into it while playing craps. The longer they have been playing craps the more they start believing in Hot and Cold shooters, next thing we know they are convinced its true.

There is also no such thing as a hot poster. At least on this forum. Again, as AxelWolf mentions, that is true, until "after the fact."

Quote: Ahigh

There is also no such thing as a hot poster. At least on this forum. Again, as AxelWolf mentions, that is true, until "after the fact."

Are you still playing craps? I now look occasionally to see if you are shooting Downtown while passing by the tables.

mustangsally



Your playing word games again........ To the majority of craps player a guy that had just had a very good
roll is was hot , on fire etc., and during the roll others players will say this guy is hot or what ever term you want to use.

That does not mean he was hot the time before or will ever be again, but he has going or has just
had a very good roll.

The 5-count for most people will allow them to stay at the table longer, which allows more time to
be there during a good roll. You can use any term you want, but i would rather be at the table for a
40 roll than seven rolls of 3.

Now as far as the number of rolls , whether it is 3 or 4 or 5 or 6 ..it matters not. The people that would deride
anyone for coming up with any idea would complain whether he called it the 4 count or 5 count or 6 count.

The point is simple is it not, the longer you are at the table the better chance you have a seeing a good roll.

There are a hell of a lot of worse ideas floating around these forums.


dicesetter

Quote: dicesitter

Your playing word games again........ To the majority of craps player a guy that had just had a very good
roll is was hot , on fire etc., and during the roll others players will say this guy is hot or what ever term you want to use.

That does not mean he was hot the time before or will ever be again, but he has going or has just
had a very good roll.

what is Hot or cold or choppy or a *good roll* to one is not hot or COLD or choppy or a *good roll* to another.

so it is you that is playing word games.
It is fun.

I would LOVE to know that the next 7 shooters will 7 out on their 3rd roll.
I (my syndicate) would take a lot of the casinos money and be a proven Craps winner for that session.
The right way bettors would just run and hide with their eyes closed.

Quote: dicesitter

The 5-count for most people will allow them to stay at the table longer, which allows more time to
be there during a good roll.

The 6 Roll Count does that and more
and loses less than the 5-Count during any shooter's hand. Just wait 6 rolls and start betting on that shooter.
many will not qualify to bet on.
Recall those 100 million blind squirrels I have spoken about. over 1 million of them passed the Smart Craps Pro test
and many with less than just 500 rolls.
WOW!
yes, I agree
and many had *good rolls* ... a few over 100 rolls in ONE hand.
Damn!

I am still on the fence over them squirrels too.

Quote: dicesitter

The point is simple is it not, the longer you are at the table the better chance you have a seeing a good roll.

There are a hell of a lot of worse ideas floating around these forums.dicesetter

still funny stuff!
no such thing as a *good roll* either

you say words but show absolutely nothing to quantify your words.
Maybe you are really using the wrong English words here.

any roll can win any player real money if the player just bets what rolls on the very next roll.
and this is not a Venus and Mars thing.
7,11,3,2,12,7,7,7,2,12,11,7,7,11,6,7
Hot Shooter!
Rolling what are called naturals and one should win big bucks on this good roll

still funny stuff

Just bet to win and have fun doing it
a Hand by any shooter is just that.
A hand.

not good or bad or hots or trots

Sally

I would like to see a live video of Sally meeting DiceSitter in the casino talking about these subjects. I wonder if they met they would continue these exchanges online.

Can somebody tell me the edge in craps is if you know what one die will be in advance of betting? Like if they had a promotion that came up randomy through out the HR. toss dice one at a time.... make a bet after you seen first die rolled. So at times you would already have bets going. So koading up on pass or dont pass wouldn't be viable all the time

The best bets would always be the hop bets. Just hop everything that has the resolved die in there every time you know something. The other bets are nowhere as advantageous and would just be wasted until you got to the max allowed bet.

No casino would do this, IMO. They would sooner just give away free money.

On average a hop bet would win 1 in 6 tries on average instead of 1 in 18 or 1 in 36.

The edge normally is 1/9 for easy hops that pay 16-for-1 which is 11.11% and 5/36 for hard hops which is 13.89%

The player edge would be to have 16x the bet 1/6th of the time for hops (266.66% EV or 166.66% player edge) on easy hops and 31x the bet 1/6th of the time for hard hops (516.67% EV or 416.67% player edge).

Each bet would have a different player edge, though. The hardways hopping is the biggest positive EV on the felt if you know the outcome of the first die.

Placing the eight nine and ten are also decent player edge bets if you know one die is the six in advance, you have a 50/50 chance to win bets that pay 13-for-6, 12-for-5, and 74-for-25 to maximize player edge.

The following are player edges when you know one die is a six:
8.03% player edge for placing a 8
20% player edge for placing the 9
48% player edge for buying the 10 for $25 (47.5% player edge once you get to $100 buys with $5 vig on the win)