What is the EV of this craps promotion?

I have no idea how to calculate this promotion in EV. I am not even sure it is possible. If any of you care to calculate it I would appreciate it. Maybe I should be asking what the odds of winning this promo are?

Lets assume a few things.
$5.00 min table
you only bet when you are shooting
You play $5.00 pass line and nothing else
You play for 8 hours a day

The places are calculated based on how many throws you have on 1 turn. Every throw counts as one until you 7 out.

Every day, the top five Hot Shooters win prizes and a delicious meal on us!
First Place: $100 match play and two free buffets
Second Place: $50 match play and two free buffets
Third Place: $25 match play and one free buffet
Fourth Place: $10 match play and one free buffet
Fifth Place: $10 match play and one free buffet
Plus, we also have a new Hot Shooters Progressive Bounty!
The bounty starts at $500 and adds $100 each day until it hits. Sixty or more rolls wins the bounty! Each time it is hit, the bounty resets to $500. Current bounty is $1500.

We can calculate this stuff but knowing how many competitors you have is critical. Do you have any estimate of how many people will be competing for the "top five Hot Shooters" prizes (and how long they will be playing)?

hmm that is a tough one. Anyone who plays on the casino floor with a card is eligible. I would forgot about a friday or saturday night so if we calculate using a Tuesday or Wednesday.

I am not sure we can even estimate how many players there are. There would be 4 tables running from about 11am till midnight. I would also say the average players per table at one time is 8. There is no math behind this number, it is just me gestimating based on what I saw throughout the last 2 days.

Seems like it would require a lot of time for a small reward. What would your expected hourly rate be? Very little id think.

Quote: Aussie

Seems like it would require a lot of time for a small reward. What would your expected hourly rate be? Very little id think.

I would assume it would be. I was just curious. There were at least 3 people there today doing this.

My maths suck but I am working to figure this out. So far I am figuring out how many turns you would get in a day.
8 people at a table for 8 hours.
129 rolls per hour (taken from the Wizards, ask a question)
Average rolls per shooter 8.525510

In 8 hours there would be 1032 rolls. 121.05 (round to 122/8 people= 15.25 per person)
In 13 hours (11am-12am) there would be 197 total shooters per table

Quote: GWAE

I have no idea how to calculate this promotion in EV. I am not even sure it is possible. If any of you care to calculate it I would appreciate it. Maybe I should be asking what the odds of winning this promo are?

Lets assume a few things.
$5.00 min table
you only bet when you are shooting
You play $5.00 pass line and nothing else
You play for 8 hours a day

The places are calculated based on how many throws you have on 1 turn. Every throw counts as one until you 7 out.

Every day, the top five Hot Shooters win prizes and a delicious meal on us!
First Place: $100 match play and two free buffets
Second Place: $50 match play and two free buffets
Third Place: $25 match play and one free buffet
Fourth Place: $10 match play and one free buffet
Fifth Place: $10 match play and one free buffet
Plus, we also have a new Hot Shooters Progressive Bounty!
The bounty starts at $500 and adds $100 each day until it hits. Sixty or more rolls wins the bounty! Each time it is hit, the bounty resets to $500. Current bounty is $1500.

We should calculate the expected value of one attempt.

First the day prizes

you have a 1 in N chance of beating N competing entries.

If i use say N=5,000 first place prize per attempt is on average is worth $0.01.. the sum of prizes 1st through 5th is about $0.02.

So now let's do the bounty. This will only depend on the current bounty. It's $1500 now and per attempt you have a 0.01961% chance of exceeding 59.

So this is worth $1,500*.00019=$0.29 per attempt.

So the total EV per attempt is about $0.31 minus the cost of an attempt.. which is...the average number of $5 bets you place in an attempt *-0.07.. i'm going to say 2.5..

that leaves us with about +14 cents per attempt

assuming you can roll fast on a solo table.. it might be on average $20/hour up until the bonus hits... of course you'd be risking that my math is correct. =D

It seems the reward for 1st through 5th place are almost negligible compared to the $1,500 bounty.. so the results don't really depend too much on the number of players.. just that the bounty is high enough.