Betting Pass and Don't Pass for Free Drinks
We typically drink 4 drinks each (8 total) while losing only $10; a phenomenal deal in Vegas. Also, the standard deviation is very low so its unlikely that you will lose a lot with this strategy.
More importantly, the dealer will often make a mistake with the Don't Pass bet if the table is really busy forgetting to take the money when the Pass bets win. Therefore, you will often be paid to drink!!! Three times we have walked away with $210 and a nice buzz.
Enjoy!
I hope you mean 202 because you tipped for drinks.Quote: longtimelancerOne trick a friend and I use for getting free drinks is to go to a busy craps table with $200, split the money between us and I bet the Don't Pass and he bets the Pass. The only time we lose is when we get a 12 on the come out roll which happens once every 122 rolls and we only lose half of our total bet. This strategy results in a house edge of 0.82 (according to my calculations) and at a busy table will result in 1 loss/45 minutes.
We typically drink 4 drinks each (8 total) while losing only $10; a phenomenal deal in Vegas. Also, the standard deviation is very low so its unlikely that you will lose a lot with this strategy.
More importantly, the dealer will often make a mistake with the Don't Pass bet if the table is really busy forgetting to take the money when the Pass bets win. Therefore, you will often be paid to drink!!! Three times we have walked away with $210 and a nice buzz.
Enjoy!
Quote: longtimelancerOne trick a friend and I use for getting free drinks is to go to a busy craps table with $200, split the money between us and I bet the Don't Pass and he bets the Pass.
Something tells me the casino can pretty much count on a tipsy player making some other bets about, I dunno, 99.99% of the time? [g]
They really need players to make those other bets.
One of the stick man's primary duties is to see that the shooter has a line bet down, but I've never heard the Stick droning on and on about 'get your line bets here'.Quote: odiousgambitOf course the casino really makes no money on people who play the Line only, rightside or darkside either one.
They really need players to make those other bets.
Partners? Doey Don't? No need.
Sure you can sit at an Out of Service slot machine and still have a waitress pouring booze down your gullet, but if you enjoy craps you can still get plenty of free drinks without any of this fancy stuff. A little sensible betting and direct attention to the waitresses tips and you will do very well in the "buzz" department. Most casinos know that "happy" bettors will get bored with a routine and will eventually adopt the stick man's babbling about other bets.
Quite an achievement to be able have boxcars appear so much more infrequently than the standard one in 36.Quote: longtimelancerThe only time we lose is when we get a 12 on the come out roll which happens once every 122 rolls and we only lose half of our total bet. This strategy results in a house edge of 0.82 (according to my calculations) and at a busy table will result in 1 loss/45 minutes.
Quote: SanchoPanzaQuite an achievement to be able have boxcars appear so much more infrequently than the standard one in 36.
On the -come out roll- he said. A twelve on a non-come out doesn't take down either bet.
Gee, boxcars on the come-out roll now isn't one in 36 come-out rolls, either.Quote: thecesspitOn the -come out roll- he said. A twelve on a non-come out doesn't take down either bet.
A roll of midnight only matters on the come-out, and according to this Ask the Wizard page:
https://wizardofodds.com/ask-the-wizard/craps/probability/
There is a decision, on average, once every 3.7 rolls. With that in mind, we determine that 1 in 3.7 rolls is a Come-Out roll while 2.7 out of 3.7 rolls are not a Come Out roll, thus:
1/36/3.7 = 0.0075075075
Which is: 1/0.0075075075 or 1 in 133.2 physical rolls, approximately.
***EDIT*** He (LongTimeLancer) is wrong in stating it reduces the House Edge, though, it has no affect on the House Edge of either bet, because they are separate bets. It's true that you only lose 5 * 1/36 = .13889 cents per bet when you are actually betting $10, in total, but each bet still retains its House Edge. This is demonstrated by .13889/10 = .013889 on a $10 bet which is a House Edge of 1.3889%. If you combine the House Edge of an unresolved Don't Pass Bet (i.e. including pushes) of 1.36 and the Pass Line of 1.41, that is 1.385% HE, which is obviously an approximation.
1/36 * 10 = .27777 ------> .27778/20 = .013889 or a House Edge of 1.3889%
It is very satisfying to make money off the casino in this manner. My friend and I do this before going out clubbing where the drinks are ridiculously expensive.
The other key is that the standard deviation is very low as every outcome (except one) is a push. It is impossible to win money on any bet and almost impossible to lose.
How did you arrive at a 0.82 house edge? Interesting value.(show your work please)Quote: longtimelancerThis strategy results in a house edge of 0.82 (according to my calculations)
here is how I would do that
36 come out rolls times 2 units = 72 units wagered
1 time lose 1 unit
house edge = 1/72
* 100 = about 1.389%
I would think at a busy table it could be 1 loss per hour or even every hour and a half when the dice take forever to roll.Quote: longtimelancerand at a busy table will result in 1 loss/45 minutes. Enjoy!
oh yes "almost impossible to lose"
you have better than a 1 in 4 shot of losing at least 2 times in that "cycle of 36 bets" too
Please plan for that eventuality.
the chance of NOT losing 1 time in 36 bets = (35/36)^36 = about 0.362710
the chance of losing exactly 1 time in 36 bets = C(36,1)*(1/36)*(35/36)^35 = about 0.373073
that leaves the chance of losing 2 times or more to be 1 - 0.362710 - 0.373073 = about 0.2642168
so 1 in 4 "cycle of 36 bets" on average, your drinks will be more expensive.
I guess you could both just gamble and bet the same side and win to cut down the price of drinking and entertainment.
Of course, it could also increase the cost too.
have fun drinking!
Sally
Quote: mustangsallyit could also increase the cost too.
The volatility changes indeed.
The cost remains the same. Theoretical cost anyway.
Quote: odiousgambitThe volatility changes indeed.
The cost remains the same. Theoretical cost anyway.
Yes, the key is the low volatility. You are assured nearly free drinks and possibly will be paid to drink due to dealer error.
This is the first positive expectation game ever discovered!!!
Quote: mcallister3200Far from the first positive expectation ever, I think you may have a misperception about how often the dealer error is happening. It takes a dealer error as well as the stickperson not watching their end. Does it happen? Of course, but without a large sample size to look I doubt it happens at the frequency you think.
I am heading to Vegas in early May and will report back on how much money I make. And how drunk I get ; )
Quote: longtimelancerOne trick a friend and I use for getting free drinks is to go to a busy craps table with $200, split the money between us and I bet the Don't Pass and he bets the Pass.
This is not a trick. It's the equivalent of you each taking $100 and each betting the pass. Your expected loss is exactly the same and you're entitled to exactly the same comps and freebies you'd get by both playing the same side.
ok. Just saying, if it was that easy, people would be making a living betting the don't on busy tables.Quote: longtimelancerI am heading to Vegas in early May and will report back on how much money I make. And how drunk I get ; )
Quote: sodawaterThis is not a trick. It's the equivalent of you each taking $100 and each betting the pass. Your expected loss is exactly the same and you're entitled to exactly the same comps and freebies you'd get by both playing the same side.
But the variance is extremely low. In a 1 hour gambling session, the chance of losing more money than we can drink is almost zero. Also, dealer error often puts us in the situation of being paid to drink.
Quote: longtimelancerAs pointed out above, you only lose on a 12 on the come out roll. Most rolls are not come out rolls.
It is said the dice have no memory.
In your scenario does the passline have memory in order that the expectation of 1/36 outcome is altered? How do it know?
Just wondering if maybe the "free booze" might have something to do with memory?
If this style of play is going to be considered an AP [playing for dealer mistakes trying to take advantge], I would like to be the first to coin the phrase "doing the Phil Ivey on "em".
Quote: SanchoPanzaGee, boxcars on the come-out roll now isn't one in 36 come-out rolls, either.
He was expressing it as 1 out of 122 total rolls, counting come-out and point-cycle rolls both.
Quote: djatcOp I'm going to round up some DI's that can throw 12s to follow you around.
Please let me know when you do. I'll follow around the guys throwing 12's all day.
Quote: longtimelancerMore importantly, the dealer will often make a mistake with the Don't Pass bet if the table is really busy forgetting to take the money when the Pass bets win. Therefore, you will often be paid to drink!!! Three times we have walked away with $210 and a nice buzz.
Seems the dealer is enjoying free drinks too.
Stick with it.
Based upon the following quote, I believe the House Edge for your combined bets is 2.77%.
"The House Edge is defined as the ratio of the average loss to the initial bet. The House Edge is not the ratio of money lost to total money wagered." -The Wizard
You and your friend may be betting a combined $20, but you are only risking $10 on every Come Out.
Expected loss is one in every thirty-six bets.
Total Amount Risked = $360
Expected Loss = $10
HE = 10/ 360 = 2.777%
Check this out:
Average Bet of Zero
Still, same expected value per bet (between the 2 players) as a house edge of -1/72 with an average bet of $20Quote: TankoBased upon the following quote, I believe the House Edge for your combined bets is 2.77%.
"The House Edge is defined as the ratio of the average loss to the initial bet. The House Edge is not the ratio of money lost to total money wagered." -The Wizard
You and your friend may be betting a combined $20, but you are only risking $10 on every Come Out.
Expected loss is one in every thirty-six bets.
Total Amount Risked = $360
Expected Loss = $10
HE = 10/ 360 = 2.777%
ev = -1/72 * $20 = -$20/72 = -$1/3.6
Both methods arrive at the same ev and that is the bottom line IMO
ev = -1/36 *$10 = -$10/36 = -$1/3.6
The OP's claim to a 0.82 house edge is plain old Sally Wrong
My name is
Sally Oh
Quote: longtimelancerIn a 1 hour gambling session, the chance of losing more money than we can drink is almost zero. Also, dealer error often puts us in the situation of being paid to drink.
There are a few professional gamblers on this Forum.
You're the first professional drinker.
Cool.
Quote: longtimelancerBut the variance is extremely low. In a 1 hour gambling session, the chance of losing more money than we can drink is almost zero. Also, dealer error often puts us in the situation of being paid to drink.
How much does a sixer cost where you're from?
I put a 60oz bottle of sailor jerry costing $25. That's $0.5/oz.
A bottle of sailor jerry cost $0.5/oz.
Playing in the casino, it costs $1.66/oz.
Quote: RSOne 12 per hour on the come out (low balling it here), gives -$10/hour. You can each get a free drink, eh, every 20 minutes (higher than normal). That's 4 drinks per hour (total), each drink has approximately 1.5oz, which means 6oz of alcohol (liquor) per hour.
I put a 60oz bottle of sailor jerry costing $25. That's $0.5/oz.
A bottle of sailor jerry cost $0.5/oz.
Playing in the casino, it costs $1.66/oz.
OK. You make a good point. I think I will take some vodka on the plane this time.
Nevertheless, I consider gambling to be legalized stealing from the poor and stupid, so scamming the casino is extremely appealing to me even if it is only $10 and some booze.
Quote: Tanko
Expected loss is one in every thirty-six bets.
Average Bet of Zero
No, as I and others have pointed out already, you only lose on the 12 on the come out roll. Most rolls are after the point is established.
Quote: longtimelancerOK. You make a good point. I think I will take some vodka on the plane this time.
Nevertheless, I consider gambling to be legalized stealing from the poor and stupid, so scamming the casino is extremely appealing to me even if it is only $10 and some booze.
That's weird, you're paying more for alcohol by playing craps than if you were to just buy the alcohol yourself. That's not scamming the casino....that's you getting scammed at your own game & never having a chance to recoup losses (unless dealer errors were up the ass).
Be careful about bringing alcohol on a plane. Yes, it's legal to bring it on a plane but it is illegal to consume it on a plane. Kind of like how you can't bring a bottle of vodka to a restaurant and drink it there. (I think you *could* have the stewardess open and pour your vodka for you, which would make it legal, in theory.)
Quote: longtimelancerQuote: Tanko
Expected loss is one in every thirty-six bets.
Average Bet of Zero
No, as I and others have pointed out already, you only lose on the 12 on the come out roll. Most rolls are after the point is established.
He's correct... 1 in 36 -BETS- not rolls.
At 50 to 60 decisions per hour, that comes out at more than the advertised one loss per hour.Quote: thecesspitHe's correct... 1 in 36 -BETS- not rolls.
Quote: SanchoPanzaAt 50 to 60 decisions per hour, that comes out at more than the advertised one loss per hour.
that has to be right, as about 30 come-outs per hour is expected at a full table, more with less crowded. Two people with doey-don't, about 60 decisions I think.
Quote: odiousgambitthat has to be right, as about 30 come-outs per hour is expected at a full table, more with less crowded. Two people with doey-don't, about 60 decisions I think.
But they're not additive. It's still just 30 per hour - I normally use 35, but it's close enough. The fact that you have two bets on each come-out that usually cancel each other out doesn't change things. If you go with 100 rolls/hour, there are about 35 come-outs. That translates into about 1/2 bet per hour for both pass and don't, so you should expect a total of $20 on the lines to lose $10/hour, and in the doey-don't case, with very little variance.
I wouldn't call a theoretical loss of $10/hour "free drinks" -- but for two people ordering decent stuff, even with $1 tip/drink and 3 drinks/hour, it's an inexpensive way to go. Not nearly the most inexpensive, but relatively so. When I'm playing dice, I normally order Johnnie Walker Black (it's available almost everywhere) and I'd assume the retail cost of 2 to 3 of those at normal bar markup is on par with my expected hourly loss. So it's not free, but I'm basically paying for them with the theo of a 90-minute session.
Speaking of "free" drinks, is there a list anywhere of what drinks are typically available on the main floor of which casinos? I'm not expecting to be able to order a shot of Johnnie Walker Blue or Macallan 25 at a $5 table (and get it gratis, anyway) but it'd be nice to know what's available where. I suppose I could corner a CW on the way out of the back room and just ask...
Quote: MathExtremistNot nearly the most inexpensive, but relatively so.
What is the cheapest way to get comps? Nickel slots maybe?
Quote: MathExtremistSpeaking of "free" drinks, is there a list anywhere of what drinks are typically available on the main floor of which casinos? I'm not expecting to be able to order a shot of Johnnie Walker Blue or Macallan 25 at a $5 table (and get it gratis, anyway) but it'd be nice to know what's available where. I suppose I could corner a CW on the way out of the back room and just ask...
Yes! The Wizard should have that along with his Blackjack/Craps surveys!
I like for the drink order to go smoothly. Recently I've settled on Jim Beam on the rocks.
At the Meadows, the drinks weren't free but instead they were going for what passes for reasonable these days... they must have decided not to gouge.
Quote: MathExtremistSpeaking of "free" drinks, is there a list anywhere of what drinks are typically available on the main floor of which casinos? I'm not expecting to be able to order a shot of Johnnie Walker Blue or Macallan 25 at a $5 table (and get it gratis, anyway) but it'd be nice to know what's available where. I suppose I could corner a CW on the way out of the back room and just ask...
Yes this would be a great article to have!
I admire the OP's spirit, but I'd rather just play with the chance to win, and enjoy my $1 drinks all the same.
Quote: MathExtremistSpeaking of "free" drinks, is there a list anywhere of what drinks are typically available on the main floor of which casinos? I'm not expecting to be able to order a shot of Johnnie Walker Blue or Macallan 25 at a $5 table (and get it gratis, anyway) but it'd be nice to know what's available where. I suppose I could corner a CW on the way out of the back room and just ask...
They will bring you good booze at Aria and Bellagio, even on the main floor. Maybe not Macallan 25, but Macallan 18.
"In craps 29.6% of total rolls are come out rolls, on average." - https://wizardofodds.com/ask-the-wizard/craps/general
(29.6/100)*(1/36) = (1/121.62162162)
At a $5 table, that's a nickel every hour and a quarter depending on table speed. Double the cost (on average of course) of the line only.
K?
The thing that amazes me is how
1) The Venetian
2) The Palms
3) The Palazzo
Has just as much of a hard time understanding what Frank explains. Every bet that has an edge should be allowable NO MATTER WHAT OTHER BETS YOU HAVE.
Some casinos are REALLY stupid when it comes to allowing players to bet more bets.
Quote: Ahigh
The thing that amazes me is how
1) The Venetian
2) The Palms
3) The Palazzo
Has just as much of a hard time understanding what Frank explains. Every bet that has an edge should be allowable NO MATTER WHAT OTHER BETS YOU HAVE.
Some casinos are REALLY stupid when it comes to allowing players to bet more bets.
Do they not allow you to bet on both sides at those stores, or what?
