TerribleTom
TerribleTom
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March 21st, 2014 at 5:31:37 PM permalink
Our resident Genious posted something a while back about a plan for winning big by rolling a seven 1:5 rolls. He was looking for suggestions and I offered the suggestion of playing all three hop bets (6-1, 5-2, 4-3). With a $10 bet, that's $30/roll and if you hit a seven within five rolls ($150 total bet) you win $150 + your original $10. If you could manage a higher rate of sevens, well...

My basic play at the craps table is to play table minimum with 3/4/3 odds. At a $5 table, I'll lay DP odds of $18 on the 6 & 8, $30 (max odds) on 4/5/9/10. It's not a spectacularly busy play - I can sometimes sit there for more than a few rolls while a point resolves itself - but it works for me. Like any other plan for the craps table, it's a proven loser. I still have a good time and win a bit once in a while.

I'm considering combining the two as a sort of doey/don't strategy - bet a minimum bet on the hop-sevens but only on the come-out roll.

I've never placed a hop bet in my life. At a $5 table, can you place a $1 hop bet with a $5 pass/don't bet, or does each hop bet need to be $5?
MathExtremist
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March 21st, 2014 at 5:46:32 PM permalink
Every table I've ever played (granted, up to only $25 minimums) the hop bets were $1. I'd assume there's a point where that changes, but I don't play many hop bets and I don't play bigger tables. For any dice dealers: what's the hop minimum on a $100 or $500 table?

Edit: I suppose I've played at tables where the minimum was actually lower than $1, e.g. the quarters table at Binions, but no, the line bet limit is not the same as the hop bet limit.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
TerribleTom
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March 21st, 2014 at 5:58:14 PM permalink
Good to know. Thanks.

I haven't been able to find any Craps software that has all of the hop bets available.

Any suggestions there?

I'll work on my own Excel simulator some more and play with $1 bets on the hop-sevens.
AcesAndEights
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March 21st, 2014 at 8:50:47 PM permalink
Quote: MathExtremist

Every table I've ever played (granted, up to only $25 minimums) the hop bets were $1. I'd assume there's a point where that changes, but I don't play many hop bets and I don't play bigger tables. For any dice dealers: what's the hop minimum on a $100 or $500 table?

Edit: I suppose I've played at tables where the minimum was actually lower than $1, e.g. the quarters table at Binions, but no, the line bet limit is not the same as the hop bet limit.


Yeah, I've had the same experiences. While at a $25 table once, I think I actually asked a dealer if at the $100 minimum table, the minimum on the center bets went up to $5. I believe he said no, even at the $100 min. table, you could book any inside prop bet (including hops) for just $1.

So if that recollection and dealer are both correct, it might go up at a $500 or $1000 table, but not a $100.
"So drink gamble eat f***, because one day you will be dust." -ontariodealer
DJTeddyBear
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March 21st, 2014 at 9:08:57 PM permalink
Generally, table games with high house edge side bets allow the side bets to be placed at a price lower than the table minimum.

On a craps table, all the stuff in the middle (which I have on more than one occasion heard a stickman refer to as "The junk in the middle") can be considered side bets.

Yeah, you can make Hop bets (and everything else in the middle) for less than the table minimum.


Note: As I've mentioned more than once, (and have been quotes as saying): Whenever a casino allows you to make a bet for less than the table minimum, ask yourself "Why?"
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ ————————————————————————————————————— Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
TerribleTom
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March 21st, 2014 at 10:31:06 PM permalink
Quote: DJTeddyBear

Generally, table games with high house edge side bets allow the side bets to be placed at a price lower than the table minimum.

On a craps table, all the stuff in the middle (which I have on more than one occasion heard a stickman refer to as "The junk in the middle") can be considered side bets.

Yeah, you can make Hop bets (and everything else in the middle) for less than the table minimum.


Note: As I've mentioned more than once, (and have been quotes as saying): Whenever a casino allows you to make a bet for less than the table minimum, ask yourself "Why?"



Oh, there's no doubt it's a bad bet on its own. As a hedge vs. a DP wager, though...

On a $5 table:
On the come out roll, bet $5 DP + $3 on the hop-sevens (maybe throw a fourth $1 at the hop 11?).
Point established? Lost $3 (maybe 4), make odds wager (even money bet).
7(11) rolled? Win $15 + original bet for a gain of $7 $6 if you played the eleven, too).
2 or 3 win you $1 or $2(lose hops, win on the DP), 12 pushes on the DP so you'd lose $3-4 on the hops.

I think I'll have to simulate this in Excel, as WinCraps does not seem to support hops bets.
AlanMendelson
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March 22nd, 2014 at 12:55:56 AM permalink
there used to be a time (about ten years ago) when Caesars had $25 tables and the MINIMUM bet for middle of the table was $5, including hop bets. They would not book $1 bets with the exception of a $5 horn-high-something.

That is no longer the practice. Even at $25 tables $1 bets are okay for middle of the table and hop bets.
wudged
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March 22nd, 2014 at 5:06:30 AM permalink
My experience has been that at $5, $10, or $15 tables, they will allow $1 prop bets, as long as you have a table minimum non-prop bet elsewhere. If you have no non-prop bets, then either you may not make a prop bet at all, or the prop bet must be table minimum.

For $25 tables, each prop bet follows the same rules as above, but must be a $5 minimum. I haven't played higher denominations, but I would guess at a $100 minimum the prop would go up to $25.

As AlanMendelson pointed out, Caesar's is apparently allowing $1 props on $25 tables, so I guess YMMV. I know Vegas properties are for the most part a lot more relaxed on a lot of rules than where I generally play. For example, most places I've played will not allow a $10 place 6/8, while Vegas just doesn't seem to care.

Also, in reference to Genious's proposition, depending on the distribution of the rest of the rolls in his supposed 5:1 sevens ratio, it would probably be best to stick with lay bets (whichever one would give the best HE after factoring in the new distributions) as they would have much less volatility than hopping the 7s and also have a much lower HE to have to overcome.
DJTeddyBear
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March 22nd, 2014 at 8:11:05 AM permalink
Quote: TerribleTom

Oh, there's no doubt it's a bad bet on its own. As a hedge vs. a DP wager, though...

Hedge?
I'll just refer you to the Wizard's "The Ten Commandments of Gambling"
Quote: Commandment Seven

Thou shalt not hedge thy bets.
Hedge bets usually carry a high house edge. For example, never take insurance in blackjack and never bet the any craps or any seven in craps. Exceptions can be made for insuring life changing amounts of money.





Quote: wudged

My experience has been that at $5, $10, or $15 tables, they will allow $1 prop bets, as long as you have a table minimum non-prop bet elsewhere. If you have no non-prop bets, then either you may not make a prop bet at all, or the prop bet must be table minimum.

Good point.

Of course, they'll often let you get away with it with the expectation that you'll be betting after a point is established, etc.

Also, another notable exception, they'll always let you put $1 on the FireBet, with no other bet. But that too is with the expectation that you'll start betting after a point is established.
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ ————————————————————————————————————— Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
Doc
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March 22nd, 2014 at 8:42:39 AM permalink
Quote: DJTeddyBear

Also, another notable exception, they'll always let you put $1 on the FireBet, with no other bet. But that too is with the expectation that you'll start betting after a point is established.


Just over a week ago, I was in Tunica, MS. Dealers at the Harrah's there (and maybe some of the other casinos I visited) would not allow Fire bets to be placed at all unless the player had a line bet down at the same time. Of course, once the fire bet is in play, I don't suppose they could require you to keep betting on future come out rolls.
DJTeddyBear
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March 22nd, 2014 at 9:07:11 AM permalink
Quote: Doc

Just over a week ago, I was in Tunica, MS. Dealers at the Harrah's there (and maybe some of the other casinos I visited) would not allow Fire bets to be placed at all unless the player had a line bet down at the same time.

Well, if there're gonna do that, I'd bet a doey/don't with $1 on 12. Yeah, it violates Commandment Seven, but it's for a noble purpose, so I think the Wiz would let it slide.
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ ————————————————————————————————————— Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
wudged
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March 23rd, 2014 at 2:28:46 PM permalink
A lot of places in AC frown upon making a fire bet without any line bet as well. It seems to depend on the crew, though. The supposed reason is because they have "shot takers" who come in and hope for a $1000 payout only betting $1 at a time and taking up valuable table space.
mustangsally
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March 23rd, 2014 at 2:31:56 PM permalink
Quote: TerribleTom

My basic play at the craps table is to play table minimum with 3/4/3 odds. At a $5 table, I'll lay DP odds of $18 on the 6 & 8, $30 (max odds) on 4/5/9/10
Oh, there's no doubt it's a bad bet on its own.

not that bad.
there must be other systems of play where it dominates.
maybe against a 10 step Marty placing the 4

Quote: TerribleTom

As a hedge vs. a DP wager, though...

On a $5 table:
On the come out roll, bet $5 DP + $3 on the hop-sevens (maybe throw a fourth $1 at the hop 11?).
Point established? Lost $3 (maybe 4), make odds wager (even money bet).
7(11) rolled? Win $15 + original bet for a gain of $7 $6 if you played the eleven, too).
2 or 3 win you $1 or $2(lose hops, win on the DP), 12 pushes on the DP so you'd lose $3-4 on the hops.

I think I'll have to simulate this in Excel, as WinCraps does not seem to support hops bets.

Simulate it in WinCraps. It is so easy.
WinCraps has all the Hop bets. I also see they are all supported in auto-betting too.
Just look below the center bets at the bottom. It says prop bets. click away!
one can even set the payoffs to what ever one wishes. There are many different hop payouts in the world.

How about a quick compare.
Your no frills don't pass 343 system
add the hedge 3way7 and Yo
add only the 3way7

let us see who makes more money over 1 million dice rolls
(or loses less) I stopped at 100,00 rolls for a look. the Don't Pass was winning, but the hedge turned a winner into a big time loser!
yes!
casinos LOVE these players!
don't pass with odds only and UP $4,568! Nice!

the player at the same table - same dice rolls- full 7-11 hedge is down only 8,156

the Classic code used

'set odds to 3,4,3
While . . .
Initializing Auto-Bet
then . . .
Select RNG # 1
Seed RNG with # 123456
Set Auto-Lay Full Odds to True
Bet $ 5 on Don't Pass
Bet $ 1 on Eleven <<< this can be removed to only hedge with a 3way7 bet
Bet $ 1 on Hop 1-6
Bet $ 1 on Hop 2-5
Bet $ 1 on Hop 3-4
While . . .
Next roll is a come-out roll
then . . .
Bet $ 5 on Don't Pass
Bet $ 1 on Eleven <<< this can be removed to only hedge with a 3way7 bet
Bet $ 1 on Hop 1-6
Bet $ 1 on Hop 2-5
Bet $ 1 on Hop 3-4

'just plain old don't pass
While . . .
Initializing Auto-Bet
then . . .
Set Auto-Lay Full Odds to True
Select RNG # 1
Seed RNG with # 123456
Bet $ 5 on Don't Pass
While . . .
Next roll is a come-out roll
then . . .
Bet $ 5 on Don't Pass

no hedge. avg loss per roll?

full 7-11 hedge lost some 7 times more than no-hedge sucker player

only the 3way7 hedge. got to protect that don't pass bet on the come out roll. Money to burn! Nice too!


one can do some math if so interested to see how much per roll these hedges cost on average.

Now,
I am just guessing here and may be way off too
that by hedging bets the player wants (enjoys) to lose more money the longer they play and bet
(because that is the over-whelming average result from hedging)
and it must be more fun while losing more money by hedging

It must be a "feels good" type of betting system
only until (if ever) one realizes that the longer one plays this hedging way the more they lose verses not hedging.
That must be so much fun too.


hedge to "feel good" over a few "saved" losing bets = priceless
not = win more or lose less real money

Sally

OMG!
Wildcats! (UK)
I just won $1 million dollars!
or close enough
I Heart Vi Hart
TerribleTom
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March 23rd, 2014 at 2:41:24 PM permalink
Thanks, Sally.

That's a lot of insight.
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