Fire Bet Win: Video
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uRc-BE6AzqE
Quote: Knuckleball3Must have had no fire bets up for the dealers, they look miserable...
I can say this - dealer bets or no, I am usually thrilled to see a six-point fire hit simply because of the rarity of it, but given how heavy the action gets on a hot table, by the time it gets to that point, I'm usually gassed and can only express so much enthusiasm. Seven outs may suck, but from a dealer's standpoint, that's kind of our reset button.
Quote: hwccdealerI can say this - dealer bets or no, I am usually thrilled to see a six-point fire hit simply because of the rarity of it, but given how heavy the action gets on a hot table, by the time it gets to that point, I'm usually gassed and can only express so much enthusiasm. Seven outs may suck, but from a dealer's standpoint, that's kind of our reset button.
Definitely understand the gassed part, but yes would like to have seen some type of reaction even if there weren't dealer bets and smile or cheer with the table might get them some tips. These guys looked like robots.
Quote: Knuckleball3Definitely understand the gassed part, but yes would like to have seen some type of reaction even if there weren't dealer bets and smile or cheer with the table might get them some tips. These guys looked like robots.
Hey, I heard they get paid from bonuses and percentages of the wins, maybe it could be true for these dealers.
Quote: CrapsGeniousHey, I heard they get paid from bonuses and percentages of the wins, maybe it could be true for these dealers.
Is that like an employee-owned casino where the dealers get a take of the profits, except, well, the other way around?
Quote: michael99000Wow a .00016 prob win (according to wizards fire bet page) caught on video.
I truly believe they forgot to do the math on hedging that bet because it can be very profitable on a daily basis. even though 4 Points pays 25 to one, you can hedge against that 4th number $120/lay from a $5.00 firebet (3 firebet points + 4th established number) and win much more because of the fact that 7 is easier to roll. Same with 5th and 6th numbers.
I wish I can do the mathematics on hedging.
Quote: CrapsGeniousI truly believe they forgot to do the math on hedging that bet because it can be very profitable on a daily basis. even though 4 Points pays 25 to one, you can hedge against that 4th number $120/lay from a $5.00 firebet (3 firebet points + 4th established number) and win much more because of the fact that 7 is easier to roll. Same with 5th and 6th numbers.
I wish I can do the mathematics on hedging.
we all wish that you could then you would see how bad of a bet it is.
Quote: GWAEwe all wish that you could then you would see how bad of a bet it is.
It's not as bad as you may think it is. I don't get the opportunity to witness all of them, but on weekends when I drive down to the casino I do notice at least 3 to 5 per day (4th number established but no fire made)
Yes I agree with you that they are hard to make 5 and 6 number fires, but there are many chances to hedge against the 4th and sometimes 5th to make it quite profitable as a side bet.
3x 4th number firebet hedge @ $120 = $360 per day and Risk is $0 with Profit of $300/day. Many people that don't pay attention to this bet don't really see it's potential to make extra winnings to your chip tray with little effort or risk.
Dark side players even though have an advantage still put their chips at risk.
Quote: CrapsGeniousIt's not as bad as you may think it is. I don't get the opportunity to witness all of them, but on weekends when I drive down to the casino I do notice at least 3 to 5 per day (4th number established but no fire made)
Yes I agree with you that they are hard to make 5 and 6 number fires, but there are many chances to hedge against the 4th and sometimes 5th to make it quite profitable as a side bet.
3x 4th number firebet hedge @ $120 = $360 per day and Risk is $0 with Profit of $300/day. Many people that don't pay attention to this bet don't really see it's potential to make extra winnings to your chip tray with little effort or risk.
Dark side players even though have an advantage still put their chips at risk.
I am no where near smart enough to do the math but.. The firebet has a high HE. The HE is based off of full pays. By hedging you are not receiving the full pay therefor you are increasing the HE.
ETA: I guess the HE stays the same for the fire and you now have a new HE for the hedge but either way you are now expecting to lose more money because you have more in play. amirite?
Quote: GWAEI am no where near smart enough to do the math but.. The firebet has a high HE. The HE is based off of full pays. By hedging you are not receiving the full pay therefor you are increasing the HE.
ETA: I guess the HE stays the same for the fire and you now have a new HE for the hedge but either way you are now expecting to lose more money because you have more in play. amirite?
You need to play it to understand it Gwae.
I play the firebet every chance I get when i visit the casino.
I risk $100.00 (20 x $5.00 firebets) and that's all the risk I take. all the rest is hedging guaranteeing me a win profit on both sides of the table.
4 points fire pays $125.00 (Hedging 4th point for $120 pays $100 keeping in mind 7 is easier to roll) so I risk nothing to guarantee profit.
5 points fire pays $1250.00 (Hedging 5th point for $750) guarantees me an easy $500.00 Profit win or lose.
6 points fire pays $5000.00 (Hedging 6th point for up to $2000.00) guarantees me an easy $1000.00 to $3000 Profit win or lose.
try it sometime and you will understand what I mean.
Quote: CrapsGeniousYou need to play it to understand it Gwae.
I play the firebet every chance I get when i visit the casino.
I risk $100.00 (20 x $5.00 firebets) and that's all the risk I take. all the rest is hedging guaranteeing me a win profit on both sides of the table.
4 points fire pays $125.00 (Hedging 4th point for $120 pays $100 keeping in mind 7 is easier to roll) so I risk nothing to guarantee profit.
5 points fire pays $1250.00 (Hedging 5th point for $750) guarantees me an easy $500.00 Profit win or lose.
6 points fire pays $5000.00 (Hedging 6th point for up to $2000.00) guarantees me an easy $1000.00 to $3000 Profit win or lose.
try it sometime and you will understand what I mean.
I understand it and I never said that I wouldn't do it. In fact if I had $5 on it and was 1 point away from $5000 or going back to 1250 I would also hedge. 3k for me is a huge amount so I would be happy with the hedge. All that I was saying is that it is not a good bet and hedging it makes it worse.
Quote: CrapsGeniousIt's not as bad as you may think it is. I don't get the opportunity to witness all of them, but on weekends when I drive down to the casino I do notice at least 3 to 5 per day (4th number established but no fire made)
Wow, good point. When I go to the casino I hear the slot machines making noise as people win. I guess slots are a good bet too!
This lead to a video about Seductive Girls Sexually Kissing ... while not exactly disappointed I do think the craps game would be hotter.Quote: Rivahttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uRc-BE6AzqE
Quote: FleaStiffThis lead to a video about Seductive Girls Sexually Kissing ... while not exactly disappointed I do think the craps game would be hotter.
No idea what OTHER windows you had open at the time, Flea....XD....but I looked at this link both before and after your post and both times watched 45 seconds of a craps table with about 6 people on it hit the 6 for a completed firebet and have a crazy happy celebration.
Quote: odiousgambitThe mistake is in making the fire bet in the first place. If the player then wants to lock in a win, that seems more like arbitrage than hedging.
No, it's hedging, because it reduces your EV even further.
I'm not saying that you should never hedge. In fact, there are situations where you absolutely should hedge.
It is hard to analyze this rationally because, as you say, the main mistake was making this terrible bet. It makes no sense to start out making -EV bets and then start applying Kelly Criterion part-way through.
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceNo, it's hedging, because it reduces your EV even further.
I'm not saying that you should never hedge. In fact, there are situations where you absolutely should hedge.
It is hard to analyze this rationally because, as you say, the main mistake was making this terrible bet. It makes no sense to start out making -EV bets and then start applying Kelly Criterion part-way through.
It sounds like a bad bet but my wallet doesn't lie. The bet makes money but only on the hedge side and not the actual firebet side.
Quote: CrapsGeniousIt sounds like a bad bet but my wallet doesn't lie. The bet makes money but only on the hedge side and not the actual firebet side.
This makes absolutely no sense whatsoever.
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceThis makes absolutely no sense whatsoever.
that is because you are not a genious
Quote: FleaStiffThis lead to a video about Seductive Girls Sexually Kissing ... while not exactly disappointed I do think the craps game would be hotter.
Maybe YouTube fell asleep at the wheel when you clicked it, but when I clicked it, it was a 6-point fire win.
