Craps Newbie Letter to Wizard of Odds: Question on the Don't, please advise

I wrote this letter to Wizard of Odds before I discovered the Ask the Wizard Column had been taken down:

Wizard of Odds,

First of all, thank you. I am new to craps and luckily your website and youtube tutorials were among the first I stumbled upon while trying to understand the game. I like that you don't endorse or sell betting strategies, rely solely upon the odds and state an overall house edge in the long run. I play at a casino with a min. bet of $5 until noon and $10 afterwards with 10x odds. In the beginning, I did place some hardways and proposition bets but that area of the table no longer interests me after thoroughly reading through your site. I now bet consistently on don't pass/don't come and sometimes lay the 4 and/or 10 before the come out roll then take it down. My question is in regards to the amount I am betting and number of bets. I typically lay $10 on don't come, then take full odds on 4 or 10 ($100) and $30 odds on any other number. If I get a 4 or 10 on don't come (with $100 behind either/both) then I will place up to three $10 don't come bets with $30 odds behind each bet. If there is a hot roller, I might do just two don't come bets and lean towards come bets for anyone who makes two points or knocks me down several times. Would it be better if I just placed one don't come bet, even if it is a 6 or 8 with full odds ($100) instead of having so many working? As I'm playing don't come, it is great to see a 7 and get paid on up to four bets at the same time. My bankroll going into the game is $500 so I am worried that a hot roller could wipe me out with full odds whereas I can stand to lose my total $40 bet on a couple numbers on and still keep going then get paid on other numbers when the shooter eventually sevens out. Thanks for you time and this great site!

Well, I am not the Wizard, but know a bit about the dark side. I would be happy to share my thoughts.

* Absolutely study the wizard's material. There is none more objective, nor better.

* Congratulations on gravitating to the dark side right away. It has its pros/cons, depending on your bent as a player, but IMO, if played correctly, it offers one of the best chances in the casino to fairly consistently walk away a winner.

* If your casino offers 10X odds, on the don't, this refers to the amount you can win, not the amount you can lay. That is, on a $10 DC/DP you can win up to $100 on the odds. Thus, for the 4/10, you could lay up to $200.

* As a dark side player, you have the option to play
- DP only
- DC only
- DP + DC
I personally play only the DC. Playing the DP will often result in mean stares and comments from the right side players. It isn't right, but who needs the abuse? The DC is nicer in two ways. First of all, many players don't understand it, so it is easier to stay under the radar. Moreover, often you find yourself rooting with the shooter to either hit his 4/5/9/10 (to establish your point) or a come out 7 (to win your DC bet).

* As far as how many DC bets to do, the choice is one of personal preference. I totally agree that winning 3 or more bets on a single 7 out is a great feeling. But financing 3 or more bets requires a much bigger bankroll. Myself, I only do 1 DC with odds. Having multiple DC bets means that the shooter is not rolling a fairly quick 7 out, which is what you don't want on the dark side.

* If you wish to survive on the dark, my best advice is to limit your losses on any given shooter to one bet. The house has to take a beating from a hot roller, but you don't. Better yet, if the shooter is ultra hot, switch to the light side.

Welcome to the forum. Best of luck at the tables.

Darth

Welcome to the forum! I have no skill at craps, but I'm also a fan of the Wizard and his work, so wanted to say hi.

Thanks for the kind words.

You're in great shape betting the don't and laying the odds. I would cut out making lay bets (as in paying a commission). As far as betting strategy, it doesn't matter, just do whatever you want.

* Congratulations on gravitating to the dark side right away. It has its pros/cons, depending on your bent as a player, but IMO, if played correctly, it offers one of the best chances in the casino to fairly consistently walk away a winner.
The Right Side offers a good chance too.
The House Edge applies to LINE bets, be it a PASS LINE bet or a DONTPASS LINE bet.
The difference in the house edge is but a wee smidgen that evaporates about as fast as the alcohol in three free drinks.
The ODDS BETS are optional and have NO EDGE.
Proper mathematical theory is to bet what you can afford to bet. Bet only enough on the LINE so that your ODDS bet will bring your bets to the total that you are comfortable with.
A smidgen of a more favorable Wrong Way LINE bet is countered by the Dark Side requiring you to LAY ODDS rather than TAKE ODDS thus requiring more of your bankroll to do it properly.

* If your casino offers 10X odds, on the don't, this refers to the amount you can win, not the amount you can lay. That is, on a $10 DC/DP you can win up to $100 on the odds. Thus, for the 4/10, you could lay up to $200.
...Correct. But this does place more of your limited bankroll at risk.
... With a ten thousand bankroll, I'd be on the Dark Side. With a 500.00 bank roll, I'd be either a right side player with odds, or I'd be a Wrong Side player with minimal or no odds.

Quote: FleaStiff

With a 500.00 bank roll, I'd be either a right side player with odds, or I'd be a Wrong Side player with minimal or no odds.

I agree with this. You can play with your bankroll if you are careful, but it is pretty small. It will in fact be soon gone, you can expect, unless you can replace losses. In the meantime, darkside is not a bad choice. For one thing, if you follow Wizard commandments, you won't be hedging and thus won't make middle-table bets, which are all rightside bets.

Quote: advantage4plyr

I play at a casino with a min. bet of $5 until noon and $10 afterwards with 10x odds.

Your bankroll will not stand a chance with 10x odds when it goes to $10. 2x odds might be about all you'd want to try.

If your goal is to make your money last a long time, stop making odds bets (or at least greatly reduce their amount). The odds are 0EV but obviously they add to your variance.

If your goal is to have a shot of winning a lot of money (at least in the short term) keep going with full odds, but in exchange for this you might lose your $500 very quickly.

There are no "hot rollers". However, betting less (or not betting at all) after a roller has made a few points WILL make your money last longer. Not because the next point is any more likely to be made (they are all independent) but because any time you bet less, it makes your money last longer.

Some interesting ideas when playing the Don't. I tend to agree that having one DC bet has the advantage you only have one number to miss and once it's gone behind just sits there (with your odds) so few people realise it's there. You have action and can just watch hoping that you'll get your seven on a come-out roll.

As you've gathered the side-bets, such as hard ways, C&E etc. are best avoided.

One advantage of playing Pass is that you are (usually) with the table and so will keep your money if things are going well (and probably a more fun table to be with). Playing one DC has a lower negative correlation so you can still win while the table, hopefully gathering chips as numbers except yours are thrown, survive and stay.

The average random roller makes less than two passes/naturals before the inevitable seven-out, and that's all ya need to know, hey hey.

I play one(1) DC bet and wait, boring, probably for most, but my bankroll lasts a while and I may even make some money and get free drinks too.

Quote: Alan

but my bankroll lasts a while and I may even make some money and get free drinks too.

That can be important especially for those for whom its a bit of a trek to get to a casino at all much less a casino with a decent craps game going.