Betting it all on the field

I've seen this from time to time, and it always amazes me that players do it:

they walk up to a craps table, throw a large amount of money on the field, and if it hits they roar with delight... and if it doesn't they reach into their pocket and throw another large amount of money on the field.

Usually this happens with "kids." They are not real craps players. They probably have a drink in their hand, and a girl on their arm... which isn't necessarily bad, by the way.

I was at Rincon tonight (won $2,000 of free play in the monthly drawing which I converted to $1800+ playing video poker), plus played a little card craps (net loss $45 on card craps).

While I was at the table a young guy walks up and buys in for $100 and puts the stack of red on the field. It hits and he has $200. Parlays and hits again he has $400. Takes all but $50 off the table and shooter throws a 7 out.

Next shooter: after the come out (a non field number), the field player puts all $350 on the field. Shooter throws a hard six. Player says nothing and walks away.

I've seen variations of this many times. What are they thinking, and what am I missing (except for a way to lose a lot of money quickly)??

deleted

Alan




A number of years ago we were in Atlantic City.

For the most part we had lumps everywhere. That was before i started with
dice control and it had been a real asskicking.

Anyway three of us stood there and the table was empty, and we were talking
about that is the way it should be, no one in their right minds would ever play that
game. Well that lasted about ten minutes and i was digging for my funeral money
to play.

I dont remember how i was doing , all i remember is some shorter old guy with
a harring bone top coat and greasy hair ( looked like some of my professors)
stepped to SR1 and placed $100 on all the hardways.

I hit 4 of the next 5 rolls hardways, he made a ton and walked away.

If he knew how bad i was throwing he would have asked why i was even
at the table, yet knowing nothing he had made the worst bets on the
table and made as much in 5 minutes as it took me 4 days to lose
making what i thought were good bets.


I guess thats why he had been the professor and i was the student.

dicesetter

Quote: AlanMendelson

What are they thinking, and what am I missing (except for a way to lose a lot of money quickly)??

C'mon, now. The field pays at least even money on seven of the eleven possible numbers. And with a little luck you can win double or even triple.

Just don't let that geeky statistics math stuff get in the way of your having a little fun.

;-)

I've seen this happen before, typically, it seems like they are in the hole and just going for a quick way to get back to even par, but they're ready to leave if they lose.

Sometimes, they get back to even par, but then Let It Ride, and BOOM, right back in the hole, just for even more money.

I think they choose Craps (and isn't it almost always when the shooter already has the dice!?) because they don't have to wait as long as Roulette, so have no chance to change their minds.

Quote: AlanMendelson

I've seen this from time to time, and it always amazes me that players do it:

they walk up to a craps table, throw a large amount of money on the field, and if it hits they roar with delight... and if it doesn't they reach into their pocket and throw another large amount of money on the field.

Usually this happens with "kids." They are not real craps players. They probably have a drink in their hand, and a girl on their arm... which isn't necessarily bad, by the way.

I was at Rincon tonight (won $2,000 of free play in the monthly drawing which I converted to $1800+ playing video poker), plus played a little card craps (net loss $45 on card craps).

While I was at the table a young guy walks up and buys in for $100 and puts the stack of red on the field. It hits and he has $200. Parlays and hits again he has $400. Takes all but $50 off the table and shooter throws a 7 out.

Next shooter: after the come out (a non field number), the field player puts all $350 on the field. Shooter throws a hard six. Player says nothing and walks away.

I've seen variations of this many times. What are they thinking, and what am I missing (except for a way to lose a lot of money quickly)??

I like how you say,"They are not real craps players". As if a "real craps player" is better somehow. That's like saying "he's not even a real alcoholic" because you get drunk and order $5 Jack and Coke's all day everyday. And some young kids orders a Mojito for 12 bucks occasionally on the weekends.

Axel... do you consider them to be "real craps players"?? I think a "real craps player" is someone who has some knowledge of the game. Would you consider someone who walks up to a table and throws half of his bankroll on the field a knowledgeable player?

Perhaps this is why we have such graphic disputes over what is dice influencing and what is dice setting? Anyone can set dice, but few influence dice.

And yes, anyone can play craps, but not all are knowledgeable craps players.

Would you consider yourself to be a knowledgeable craps player -- or just a craps player?

I've seen this more on low roller casinos then high roller ones for obvious reasons. It's a classic case of "what's your win goal, what will you risk to do it, and when do you stop playing?" that these field players don't take into account if they get on a tear.

I don't play much craps anymore but I used to go heavy on the "no 4" for $200-$400. I like the suspense of looking at one die to see if it's higher then 4.

deleted

Quote: Ibeatyouraces

A "knowledgeable player" does NOT play craps!

There is a lot of truth in that. Thank you!

deleted

Quote: Ibeatyouraces

Now just because I said what I said, does not mean you craps players are stupid, :-)

Of course not. Playing craps is a lot like skydiving. Why would anyone willingly jump out of a plane that is flying perfectly well?

Quote: Ibeatyouraces

A "knowledgeable player" does NOT play craps!

Disagree. While BJ is more of a cerebral game, changes in the rules and casino heat have ruined what would be an otherwise beatable game for a knowledgeable gambler. Without that in the mix, craps is then the choice of an intelligent gambler for its extremely low house advantage.

That is silly statement


300 is a perfect game in bowling. not many get one, yet there are a good number of players
that make a good living bowling.

1000 is a perfect batting average, yet no one get one many people make a very good living
with a batting average of less than 300

I dont have to be a perfect dice controller to have some affect on the outcome.

As i indicated the other day, if you play twice a week with only a starting bet of $66 your expected
loss in a year is about $22,000.

If i play twice a week and break even, that is $22,000 ahead of the normal guy......

I will take that any day of the week, if i can break even until i am 75 playing as much
as i play i am one happy camper.....with one happy campers wife....

And all the guys on here can go on saying, if you cant show a huge profit you certainly are
not a person that can have any influence on the dice.

dicesetter

Quote: AlanMendelson

I've seen variations of this many times. What are they thinking, and what am I missing (except for a way to lose a lot of money quickly)??

The Field is an easy bet to understand and make. And despite how bad it is, it is an easy bet to win several times in a row. I have had "students" at the Monte Carlo Nights take to the Field Bet fast and win several times in a row. Soon the whole table was betting it at table max. They almost broke my bank. Almost. 10 minutes later I had it all back!

But they like how easy it is, that is my guess.

deleted

there are plenty of AP opportunities at craps. Sleeper bets and encouraging dealer mistakes being the major two.

deleted

ha i guess it depends on how much you "encourage" it.

i wouldn't know, though, i only play craps for fun.

deleted

Quote: Ibeatyouraces

I watch for fun. Spent a good hour or so watching a couple of jammed tables today.

Are you serious? To me, watching craps is like watching an hr.-long soap opera w/ all the ads. Maybe you're learning something. What do you learn?

Quote: AlanMendelson

Axel... do you consider them to be "real craps players"?? I think a "real craps player" is someone who has some knowledge of the game. Would you consider someone who walks up to a table and throws half of his bankroll on the field a knowledgeable player?

Perhaps this is why we have such graphic disputes over what is dice influencing and what is dice setting? Anyone can set dice, but few influence dice.

And yes, anyone can play craps, but not all are knowledgeable craps players.

Would you consider yourself to be a knowledgeable craps player -- or just a craps player?

No......I Don't distinguish real craps players from novice craps players because. its normally a losing game. Its like a guy with his fly down, laughing at the guy with the toilet paper on his shoe. The "best craps player" is just a bigger loser, because he probably plays more. The kid tossing down one big bet win or lose, is better off doing that, then a guy maximizing his bets all day long.

I'm excluding entertainment value and comps.

I don't know much but I will say this, and I think it makes sense. By no means is a solely craps player an ap...you are gambling at the craps table ALWAYS. But there are bets than can be made and ways of playing that are more advantageous that just walking up and throwing money in the field... Maybe I'm wrong though.

Wow Alan,

I'm a little surprised by the negativity regarding craps in this thread. I can only assume those comments are being made by the blackjack players? I pretty much gave up on bj when most of the casinos went to shoes and automatic shufflers. I realize there are some single deck casinos around, but they are few and far between now. And for me, trying to count cards with a shoe involved basically makes my head explode (just not very enjoyable). I've always felt that craps offers an opportunity for a win for the occasional players (which is what I am, compared to most on this board). Blackjack aside, I don't know of any other games that allow the player to drop the casino advantage to less than one percent on a wager with max odds. I'm not looking to joust with anyone, but would love to know why you guys are so low on the game in comparison to all the other casino games.

As for an answer to your original question, I often see the same thing you see and I think it's just because the "field" bet is just a simple one to understand and most people see the amount of numbers and don't do the math on the possible combinations. I shake my head on many things like that and actually find myself getting annoyed, especially when the one making the bet is bragging to a novice about what a good bet it is. Had a woman at work recently tell me her friend had just taught her how to play craps and how much fun it was. Then she said that she was still trying to figure out why he instructed her to play the horn on every come out roll (aye!). The other thing that blows me away is when people come up and place a pass line wager when the point has already been established (if that's not bad enough, they don't even put odds with it).

Quote: AlanMendelson

What are they thinking, and what am I missing ?

I have no idea what they are thinking but I doubt that you are missing anything. My only restraint is that I know nothing about "card craps" as a way of avoiding California's "never solely dice" law. These fairly high house edge field bets are common. Some say they are very popular amongst blacks but that is probably only because blacks happen to already be in the casino and simply get noticed more often.

Its often good to pause in life and consider What Would The Wizard Do? Anyone with Bowolf Cluster and the ability to carry calculations out to umpteen zillion decimal points knows that The Wizard will always take the best bet available. So if it ain't the Field then the bettors are not motivated by mathematical logic.

Booze, Broads....whatever... but not math!

As you said: A drink in one hand and a broad hanging onto your arm ain't a bad thing. (Just be sure she ain't hanging onto your gun arm).

Quote: FleaStiff

Just be sure she ain't hanging onto your gun arm

you created an image for me there. A famous move with Mob murder was to shake hands with a guy, then hang on tight while simultaneously pulling a gun [or the accomplice does the shooting]. I can see this as a variation!

Quote: bodyforlife

Wow Alan,

I'm a little surprised by the negativity regarding craps in this thread. I can only assume those comments are being made by the blackjack players? I pretty much gave up on bj when most of the casinos went to shoes and automatic shufflers. I realize there are some single deck casinos around, but they are few and far between now. And for me, trying to count cards with a shoe involved basically makes my head explode (just not very enjoyable). I've always felt that craps offers an opportunity for a win for the occasional players (which is what I am, compared to most on this board). Blackjack aside, I don't know of any other games that allow the player to drop the casino advantage to less than one percent on a wager with max odds. I'm not looking to joust with anyone, but would love to know why you guys are so low on the game in comparison to all the other casino games.

As for an answer to your original question, I often see the same thing you see and I think it's just because the "field" bet is just a simple one to understand and most people see the amount of numbers and don't do the math on the possible combinations. I shake my head on many things like that and actually find myself getting annoyed, especially when the one making the bet is bragging to a novice about what a good bet it is. Had a woman at work recently tell me her friend had just taught her how to play craps and how much fun it was. Then she said that she was still trying to figure out why he instructed her to play the horn on every come out roll (aye!). The other thing that blows me away is when people come up and place a pass line wager when the point has already been established (if that's not bad enough, they don't even put odds with it).

In my experience craps players and dealer tend to have a big ego, they think craps is king and that they must be smarter then the average gambler since they know the best bets to make ON CRAPS. It is all negative EV. I don't dislike craps or craps players. I just don't understand why anyone cares if some youngster want's a fast score. In and out something to talk about.

If i have a craps match play, I often try to just bet it on the field if they will let me.

That didn't completely address my question but thanks anyway.

Quote: bodyforlife

That didn't completely address my question but thanks anyway.

I'm sorry, what was your question?

I'm not low on the game, it just happens to be the game we are talking about. Craps is more popular with seasoned gamblers, so its brought up more often then something like, let it ride. I would have said the same thing about blackjack, if counting is not involved.

2nd part of the 1st paragraph...

"I've always felt that craps offers an opportunity for a win for the occasional players (which is what I am, compared to most on this board). Blackjack aside, I don't know of any other games that allow the player to drop the casino advantage to less than one percent on a wager with max odds. I'm not looking to joust with anyone, but would love to know why you guys are so low on the game in comparison to all the other casino games."

I can't comment on your "ego" remark because I simply don't stereotype. I've met players from all types of games, some cocky, some mellow. I personally don't think the game matters in regards to someone's behavior. I've also seen dealers give players very bad advice so don't put a lot into many of the comments they make. As far as EV, with the exception of BJ when played correctly (and I've commented on that already), and I imagine VP (don't find machines much fun though), I would imagine all the table games have a negative EV, do they not? Most people realize the odds are against them when they enter a casino. With that said, it seems logical to do everything in your power to reduce the casino advantage as much as possible to give yourself a shot in the short run (which is why I play craps over the other table games). If nothing else, making that type of wager would at least extend your play. I would imagine most people want to play a bit when they go gambling, and not win or lose in a roll or two. In addition, it could result in a comp of some sort (not saying I'm playing for a comp which is clearly dumb).

As for getting bothered by what another player does, ultimately I don't care (hey, it's their money). But when I see people being setup for a possibility of tremendous future losses, I will occasionally make a comment if the people seem friendly enough. I thought I was just being a nice guy when I mentioned to someone that the "hop" bet he keeps placing is probably not the best wager. Or not to get too crazy on the "any 7".

Quote: bodyforlife

2nd part of the 1st paragraph...

"I've always felt that craps offers an opportunity for a win for the occasional players (which is what I am, compared to most on this board). Blackjack aside, I don't know of any other games that allow the player to drop the casino advantage to less than one percent on a wager with max odds. I'm not looking to joust with anyone, but would love to know why you guys are so low on the game in comparison to all the other casino games."

I can't comment on your "ego" remark because I simply don't stereotype. I've met players from all types of games, some cocky, some mellow. I personally don't think the game matters in regards to someone's behavior. I've also seen dealers give players very bad advice so don't put a lot into many of the comments they make. As far as EV, with the exception of BJ when played correctly (and I've commented on that already), and I imagine VP (don't find machines much fun though), I would imagine all the table games have a negative EV, do they not? Most people realize the odds are against them when they enter a casino. With that said, it seems logical to do everything in your power to reduce the casino advantage as much as possible to give yourself a shot in the short run (which is why I play craps over the other table games). If nothing else, making that type of wager would at least extend your play. I would imagine most people want to play a bit when they go gambling, and not win or lose in a roll or two. In addition, it could result in a comp of some sort (not saying I'm playing for a comp which is clearly dumb).

As for getting bothered by what another player does, ultimately I don't care (hey, it's their money). But when I see people being setup for a possibility of tremendous future losses, I will occasionally make a comment if the people seem friendly enough. I thought I was just being a nice guy when I mentioned to someone that the "hop" bet he keeps placing is probably not the best wager. Or not to get too crazy on the "any 7".

I don't feel bad about stereotyping, It has brought much enjoyment to my life. Obviously they are not always true.

I was getting the felling that, guys who do this big bet scenarios, are doing it as a last ditch effort to recoup ground down losses. They were probably playing exactly the way most people do. Some guys do it just to have a fun story win or lose. Some guys make a big bet right when they get to Vegas just for fun. If they win they have some extra cash to play with, if not they try to grind back the loss.

Quote: Ibeatyouraces

I watch for fun. Spent a good hour or so watching a couple of jammed tables today.

Quote: Sonny44

Are you serious? To me, watching craps is like watching an hr.-long soap opera w/ all the ads. Maybe you're learning something. What do you learn?

Here in Vegas being a Looky Loo is like a national sport, you become everybody's cheap entrainment when you are shooting.

Getting back on track, the field can be a good bet at times when everybody is throwing nothing but field numbers or you are. But with that said, there are times like Alan said; some guy will walk up to the table and throw down a $1000 in the field, when nobody has been throwing any field numbers the shooters has been making nothing but 5's, 6's, and 8's. The casinos need players like that to keep the doors open!

If you look at the field from a pure math a logical view point, if the field pay three to one on the 12 or if you are playing in Reno on the 2; it's not a bad bet with a 2.56% house advantage. The problem of course is the math of the game doesn't always work out. If nobody is throwing field numbers, it's just one more stupid bet to make, that is why it takes up so much room on the craps lay-out. It's an easy sell to players that don't have a clue, they look at all the ways they can win, but never think about all the ways they can lose.


...

deleted

Quote: superrick

Here in Vegas being a Looky Loo is like a national sport, you become everybody's cheap entrainment when you are shooting.

Getting back on track, the field can be a good bet at times when everybody is throwing nothing but field numbers or you are. But with that said, there are time like Alan said some guy will walk up to the table and throw down a $1000 in the field, when nobody has been throwing any field numbers the shooters has been making nothing but 5's, 6's, and 8's. .....
...

How do previous field number rolls make the next field number roll a 'good bet' when each outcome is independent and random? Please tell me you were joking!

Quote: MidwestAP

Quote: superrick

Here in Vegas being a Looky Loo is like a national sport, you become everybody's cheap entrainment when you are shooting.

Getting back on track, the field can be a good bet at times when everybody is throwing nothing but field numbers or you are. But with that said, there are time like Alan said some guy will walk up to the table and throw down a $1000 in the field, when nobody has been throwing any field numbers the shooters has been making nothing but 5's, 6's, and 8's. .....
...

How do previous field number rolls make the next field number roll a 'good bet' when each outcome is independent and random? Please tell me you were joking!

YOU BEAT ME TO IT

Its simply amazing how this is one of my points about craps players.

He thinks, or well, it seems as if he thinks, he knows better when to bet the field and when not to. And he is calling other people suckers.

Quote: MidwestAP

How do previous field number rolls make the next field number roll a 'good bet' when each outcome is independent and random? Please tell me you were joking!

Some times you guys amaze me, lets see I bet that you play craps maybe three times a year, and when you play you go strictly by what you have read is some book that says the same thing as every crap book that has been written over the years.

I see your type of players at the tables all the time, you will tell everybody that the guy that is betting the field doesn’t know how to play craps, and when he walks away a winner, you then tell everybody that that jerk just got lucky, as your walking away a loser!

Quote: AxelWolf

He thinks, or well, it seems as if he thinks, he knows better when to bet the field and when not to. And he is calling other people suckers.

Lets see, the field has a house edge of 2.56% if it pays triple on the Twelve. The house edge on the 6 and 8 is only 1.52%! But then you look at the 5 and the 9 and the house edge is 4.0%. Lets not forget the 4 and the10 with a house edge of 6.67%. I don't know how you learned your math, but for some odd reason I think 2.56% is just a little bit lower then the edge on the 5, 9, 4, and 10! And I'm not a math guy!

The word trend can't be in your vocabulary, and you think that every roll of the dice has to conform to the math of the game. You also think that you are playing craps in the long run, and I know that you must have the bankroll to do so, for the 10,000 or more rolls that it will take for the math of the game to work its self out.

Everybody loves to say that the field bet is a bad bet, and I will to, if nobody is rolling field number. But if everybody is rolling field numbers, and that it's the trend of the table, then what do you do, stand there and tell everybody how bad of bets they are; while the stupid guy that doesn't know a thing about the game is killing the table, betting the field?

There is a big difference between knowing something is a bad bet when no one is rolling the numbers you need to win the bet, and knowing that when everybody is rolling nothing but field numbers, that you can make money on them!

Most players of craps never understand, that they are playing a negative game, and you need to see numbers like the 6's and 8's to be rolled before they become the good bets that all the books say they are! I've seen way to many days when no one is rolling 6's and 8's and they guys that are only betting them go home losers!

Trend make it possible to beat a negative game and without them you are going to get beat down with the house edge. If you don't have any common sense, and your betting the field when there are no field numbers being roll, your a loser its just that simple! Can I tell everybody on this board that I can say with 100% certainty that the next roll of the dice will be a field number no! But the same thing goes for the 6 and the 8

Quote: AxelWolf

Its simply amazing how this is one of my points about craps players.

Evidently you don't play craps, but your the expert, on the game, I know you read one book on craps, and it said the field was a bad bet, and it also told you that every number is totally random, field numbers never repeat in clumps

Can you please tell everybody what book that was so they don't make the same mistake of buying it! One more question for the both of you guys, how many hours a week do you play craps?



...

Quote: superrick

Some times you guys amaze me, lets see I bet that you play craps maybe three times a year, and when you play you go strictly by what you have read is some book that says the same thing as every crap book that has been written over the years.

I see your type of players at the tables all the time, you will tell everybody that the guy that is betting the field doesn’t know how to play craps, and when he walks away a winner, you then tell everybody that that jerk just got lucky, as your walking away a loser!

Lets see, the field has a house edge of 2.56% if it pays triple on the Twelve. The house edge on the 6 and 8 is only 1.52%! But then you look at the 5 and the 9 and the house edge is 4.0%. Lets not forget the 4 and the10 with a house edge of 6.67%. I don't know how you learned your math, but for some odd reason I think 2.56% is just a little bit lower then the edge on the 5, 9, 4, and 10! And I'm not a math guy!

The word trend can't be in your vocabulary, and you think that every roll of the dice has to conform to the math of the game. You also think that you are playing craps in the long run, and I know that you must have the bankroll to do so, for the 10,000 or more rolls that it will take for the math of the game to work its self out.

Everybody loves to say that the field bet is a bad bet, and I will to, if nobody is rolling field number. But if everybody is rolling field numbers, and that it's the trend of the table, then what do you do, stand there and tell everybody how bad of bets they are; while the stupid guy that doesn't know a thing about the game is killing the table, betting the field?

There is a big difference between knowing something is a bad bet when no one is rolling the numbers you need to win the bet, and knowing that when everybody is rolling nothing but field numbers, that you can make money on them!

Most players of craps never understand, that they are playing a negative game, and you need to see numbers like the 6's and 8's to be rolled before they become the good bets that all the books say they are! I've seen way to many days when no one is rolling 6's and 8's and they guys that are only betting them go home losers!

Trend make it possible to beat a negative game and without them you are going to get beat down with the house edge. If you don't have any common sense, and your betting the field when there are no field numbers being roll, your a loser its just that simple! Can I tell everybody on this board that I can say with 100% certainty that the next roll of the dice will be a field number no! But the same thing goes for the 6 and the 8

Evidently you don't play craps, but your the expert, on the game, I know you read one book on craps, and it said the field was a bad bet, and it also told you that every number is totally random, field numbers never repeat in clumps

Can you please tell everybody what book that was so they don't make the same mistake of buying it! One more question for the both of you guys, how many hours a week do you play craps?



...

FYI I was defending the field bet. Not because I think its a good bet, I just realize there are times and reasons one may want to use it. I don't look down on a field better because under normal circumstances a field bettor is not playing craps all day long.

I rarely play craps unless I have an edge, IE a free bet, match play, free play or some promotion. I played with Ahigh and won, but that was out of interest and entertainment. I have no doubt you know more about craps then I do. However, I don't have to smoke crack to know its bad for me, same goes for craps.

The point I was trying to make is if a guy wants to bet the field one time vs someone who plays all day long. The guy betting a one time shot, will probably have less theoretical loss then the other guy. Hell he may win big and walk away. That's the best case scenario for him, other then not playing at all.

I never read a craps book.

Your theory dealing with trends is the only problem I have with what you are saying. WE ALL KNOW TRENDS ARE COMPLETE BULLSHIT. You don't know someone is rolling field numbers until after the fact. Its like saying the numbers 13 ,7 ,5 8, 10 keeps coming up on keno, so you should go play a horrible game to take advantage of the number trends. If you can spot TRENDS before the fact you should be extremely rich, with an unlimited 24/7 fun money making opportunity, I would stop wasting time here.

My question to you is. Do you think you can spot trends during game play and take advantage of it and then make a profit?

Field, props, ties, roullette, what a fun to watch people playing' em when their numbers hit. Some of these bets pay 30 times plus, how stupid of me to bet bank and get paid 1:1. Wait a minute, that homeless man, I remember he bet hi-lo and he did so well a year ago.

Quote: superrick

Trend make it possible to beat a negative game and without them you are going to get beat down with the house edge. If you don't have any common sense, and your betting the field when there are no field numbers being roll, your a loser its just that simple! Can I tell everybody on this board that I can say with 100% certainty that the next roll of the dice will be a field number no! But the same thing goes for the 6 and the 8

Evidently you don't play craps, but your the expert, on the game, I know you read one book on craps, and it said the field was a bad bet, and it also told you that every number is totally random, field numbers never repeat in clumps

Can you please tell everybody what book that was so they don't make the same mistake of buying it! One more question for the both of you guys, how many hours a week do you play craps?

1) I never tell people they are "making a bad bet", or "don't know how to play craps" when they bet the field or any other bet for that matter. How they want to spend their money is their business and I couldn't give a rip.

2) The field bet has a higher HE compared to other bets on the layout, therefore in comparison it is a 'bad bet' if one use the HE as a comparison. If someone finds it easier to bet the field, or has other entertainment reasons to do so, then it may not be a 'bad bet' for those reasons , but it is still unarguably a higher house edge than a pass line or don't pass bet.

3) I've well aware that the game has a negative expectation.

4) You are correct about one thing, trend isn't in my vocabulary and the dice do have to conform to the math in the long run. Field bet numbers can appear in clumps, as can non-field numbers, but that's a result in the random nature of the roll, not because the dice have some trend seeking magic in them.

Quote: superrick

Lets see, the field has a house edge of 2.56% if it pays triple on the Twelve. The house edge on the 6 and 8 is only 1.52%! But then you look at the 5 and the 9 and the house edge is 4.0%. Lets not forget the 4 and the10 with a house edge of 6.67%. I don't know how you learned your math, but for some odd reason I think 2.56% is just a little bit lower then the edge on the 5, 9, 4, and 10! And I'm not a math guy!

this isnt a good argument. the field bet is a one-roll wager so it would make more sense to compare the field bet to the place bets on a per roll basis. and on a per roll basis, the house edge is lower on all of them than the field bet.

6 and 8: 0.46%
5 and 9: 1.11%
4 and T: 1.67%

Quote: superrick

The word trend can't be in your vocabulary, and you think that every roll of the dice has to conform to the math of the game.

... more similar remarks deleted ...

There is a big difference between knowing something is a bad bet when no one is rolling the numbers you need to win the bet, and knowing that when everybody is rolling nothing but field numbers, that you can make money on them!

OK, I admit I am only an occasional craps player but it sounds like your argument is that when there is a "trend" of field numbers coming up that the next roll of the dice is not actually random? At that time if I am a "good craps player" I can somehow detect this trend and start betting the field and make money?

I would also argue that the interesting question is not how many hours a week you play craps but what is your win/loss rate. I am a casual gambler at craps and do not track my play but am definitely a lifetime loser. If you have documented a consistent win rate over time due to your trend spotting abilities then you really have defied the odds. I suggest you spend as much time at the casino as possible getting rich until they kick you out. Otherwise playing more hours just means you lose more.

Quote: AxelWolf

Your theory dealing with trends is the only problem I have with what you are saying. WE ALL KNOW TRENDS ARE COMPLETE BULLSHIT. You don't know someone is rolling field numbers until after the fact. Its like saying the numbers 13 ,7 ,5 8, 10 keeps coming up on keno, so you should go play a horrible game to take advantage of the number trends. If you can spot TRENDS before the fact you should be extremely rich, with an unlimited 24/7 fun money making opportunity, I would stop wasting time here.

My question to you is. Do you think you can spot trends during game play and take advantage of it and then make a profit?

I love your statement “ WE ALL KNOW TRENDS ARE COMPLETE BULLSHIT” it goes against the only reason players can win at craps, you are after all playing a negative game! It's a fact of life that trends happen all the time, and they go against things like the math of the game!

Some of the things that would effect some of the guys on this board that are trends, you wouldn't bet on the Denver Broncos to win the Superbowl if they lost every game last year, and nothing changed on their team. The trend last year for them was they were losers, you have a record of what happened in the pass. So your not betting them because the had a losing record, but what happens if they just won five games in a row, would you still say they were losers and not bet on them to win the next game?

When your buying stock, you are always looking at the trend in the market, but you have no way of predicting if the stock you are buying is going to go up, or down. Do you sit back and say I'm not going to buy, because you can't guarantee the trend?

http://money.howstuffworks.com/personal-finance/financial-planning/stock-market-trends.htm

Quote:

The truth is there is no magical way to predict the stock market. Many issues affect rises and falls in share prices, whether gradual changes or sharp spikes. The best way to understand how the market fluctuates is to study trends.

You wouldn't go out a buy something to wear if it wasn't in a fashion trend, if you were a young hip guy or girl, but when you do buy something that is in fashion today, and you have no way on knowing that it will be out of the trend tomorrow.

Trends are tracked everyday in everything we do, and they do effect what is happening on the craps tables. Just like everything else they can be tracked, will they continue, you have no way of knowing. But if I'm seeing nobody while I'm tracking a table making the 6's and 8's I will not bet them. Yes I know that it's a trend, and it can change on the next roll of the dice, but until it doesn't I'm not going to have my money at risk betting on a point that nobody is rolling!

Quote: AxelWolf

If you can spot TRENDS before the fact you should be extremely rich, with an unlimited 24/7 fun money making opportunity, I would stop wasting time here.

Yea,.. I hear your kind of reasoning all the time, it's a way of saying you don't know what you are talking about, I could used the same type of reasoning and ask you why you are hanging out here any why you are not a millionaire?

We call players stupid when they make bets like the field bet, because that $1000 they just threw down in the field didn't win, but what do we call them when it does win? If they want to bet it let them, we all need losers in any game the casinos have! When I see these guys hit the tables and they just walk up and think they have a 50/50 shot at winning, sometimes I think they may win their bet because of the trend of the table when they did it,.. at other times I think they might lose it. Most of the time I'm right one way or the other. Would I throw in a $1000 on a field bet, .. hell no! Even if I thought is was a good bet at the time, but that is because of the way I play!

deleted

rudeboyoi,

I'm glad you made that comment and it's one that I never quite understood. When the Wizard judges rolls, he has three criteria:


Per bet made (counting pushes).
Per bet resolved (not counting pushes).
Per roll (house edge per bet resolved divided by average number of rolls).

I certainly understand the bet resolved, which is the camp I'm typically in as I usually play "pass" with max odds and wait until an outcome. But I have never understood the "per roll" comment. Can one of you guys explain it to me in layman's terms?

Quote: superrick

I love your statement “ WE ALL KNOW TRENDS ARE COMPLETE BULLSHIT” it goes against the only reason players can win at craps, you are after all playing a negative game! It's a fact of life that trends happen all the time, and they go against things like the math of the game!

Some of the things that would effect some of the guys on this board that are trends, you wouldn't bet on the Denver Broncos to win the Superbowl if they lost every game last year, and nothing changed on their team. The trend last year for them was they were losers, you have a record of what happened in the pass. So your not betting them because the had a losing record, but what happens if they just won five games in a row, would you still say they were losers and not bet on them to win the next game?

When your buying stock, you are always looking at the trend in the market, but you have no way of predicting if the stock you are buying is going to go up, or down. Do you sit back and say I'm not going to buy, because you can't guarantee the trend?

http://money.howstuffworks.com/personal-finance/financial-planning/stock-market-trends.htm

You wouldn't go out a buy something to wear if it wasn't in a fashion trend, if you were a young hip guy or girl, but when you do buy something that is in fashion today, and you have no way on knowing that it will be out of the trend tomorrow.

Trends are tracked everyday in everything we do, and they do effect what is happening on the craps tables. Just like everything else they can be tracked, will they continue, you have no way of knowing. But if I'm seeing nobody while I'm tracking a table making the 6's and 8's I will not bet them. Yes I know that it's a trend, and it can change on the next roll of the dice, but until it doesn't I'm not going to have my money at risk betting on a point that nobody is rolling!

Yea,.. I hear your kind of reasoning all the time, it's a way of saying you don't know what you are talking about, I could used the same type of reasoning and ask you why you are hanging out here any why you are not a millionaire?

We call players stupid when they make bets like the field bet, because that $1000 they just threw down in the field didn't win, but what do we call them when it does win? If they want to bet it let them, we all need losers in any game the casinos have! When I see these guys hit the tables and they just walk up and think they have a 50/50 shot at winning, sometimes I think they may win their bet because of the trend of the table when they did it,.. at other times I think they might lose it. Most of the time I'm right one way or the other. Would I throw in a $1000 on a field bet, .. hell no! Even if I thought is was a good bet at the time, but that is because of the way I play!

Football is not a random event , you are comparing apples to oranges and that's a horrible analogy. You may bet them based on the money line or points.

I don't claim to have a yearly million dollar system 24/7 especially something that deals with trends. What I do has limited possibilities with various risks and is always changing. I really dislike grinding anymore. When something comes along that has huge potential I hammer it until its gone. If I could predict trends I would not leave the casino

Quote: superrick

I love your statement “ WE ALL KNOW TRENDS ARE COMPLETE BULLSHIT” it goes against the only reason players can win at craps, you are after all playing a negative game! It's a fact of life that trends happen all the time, and they go against things like the math of the game! .....

Streaks happen all the time but what has happened in the recent past, has no influence on what is about to happen in a game with random outcomes. These streaks/trends don't go against math of the game, to the contrary, they over the long run contribute to the math of the game.

Your football and fashion analogies don't work IMO.

A football outcome isn't made up or random events, the players, coaches, game plan, weather, home field, and many other things contribute to a win or a loss. A more skilled team in more likely to win, not based on a win streak, but based on talent.

Fashion trends come and go, what the heck that has to do with dice and random events, I have no idea.

Quote: bodyforlife

rudeboyoi,

I'm glad you made that comment and it's one that I never quite understood. When the Wizard judges rolls, he has three criteria:


Per bet made (counting pushes).
Per bet resolved (not counting pushes).
Per roll (house edge per bet resolved divided by average number of rolls).

I certainly understand the bet resolved, which is the camp I'm typically in as I usually play "pass" with max odds and wait until an outcome. But I have never understood the "per roll" comment. Can one of you guys explain it to me in layman's terms?

https://wizardofodds.com/games/craps/appendix/2/

take the place 6 for example. expected number of rolls means the avg number of rolls for a 6 or 7 to be rolled. then take the house edge per bet made and divide it by the expected number of rolls to get the per roll number.

Wonderful, I appreciate that. OK, so I got the math on that and it makes sense. Last question...expected rolls? How does he come up with the 3.27 on the place 6?

Quote: bodyforlife

Wonderful, I appreciate that. OK, so I got the math on that and it makes sense. Last question...expected rolls? How does he come up with the 3.27 on the place 6?

For rolling a 6 or 7, there's 11 combinations out of a possible 36 combinations. Take 36/11 and you get 3.27.

rudeboyoi,

Thank you so much! I visit this forum periodically because of people like you. Helpful and informative as opposed to the animosity that is often present on the internet. Perhaps 2014 will be the year where ridicule will take a back seat to civil, reasoned conversation. But then again, I am the eternal optimist. Thanks again for your help.