Long rolls: How to prevent lots of $ from sitting on the table when the 7 comes?

Quote: Concinnity

Oh my!

Well . . . good luck to you!

What do you think the "Z table" is?

Quote: goatcabin

What do you think the "Z table" is?

they are popular in small motor homes when out camping
they fold away too to give more space
the value in the Z

get well by Sunday!

Sally

Quote: mustangsally

they are popular in small motor homes when out camping
they fold away too to give more space
the value in the Z

>:-)

Quote: mustangsally

get well by Sunday!

Sally

What's Sunday? (just kidding)

"How to prevent lots of $ from sitting on the table when the 7 comes?"

I switched from Passline/2 Come bets to a single larger Don't Pass. (all max odds)
ie: $5pass/Come on 3/4/5x table using 3point Betty strategy = $70 on table

$10 Dont pass/$60 odds = $70 on table
that way when I hit my win goal, I can walk away.

but with 3point Betty, I have to wait till my points resolve.
and it sucks seeing #s keep hitting when you're waiting to leave the table -> no fun.

but I just thought of something:
Why not use my Don't Pass strategy for Pass?
ie: single larger pass bet

$15passline/$60odds = $75 (if point=5)

Press as you win.
walk away when the last win meets your win goal

The best advice I can give is that 'hit and run' is best way to be a winner in the long run. Greed kills and pigs get slaughtered. If you are lucky enough to have made a profit on the tables, whether small or large, it is best to walk and start over another day. The casinos want players to put time in on the tables and stick around for a reason... over time, it is inevitable that you will lose.

Most people are not happy with a 20%, 50% even 100% gain on their money in the casinos. Many people cannot stop. Ask yourself this... how many times have you been in the casinos playing and were up at least 30% on you money? Think about if you you had left every time you were up , instead of sticking around and eventually losing that profit along with your bankroll. It adds up over time.

Be realistic and dont go for the home run every time. Especially in craps. If you are looking for that 30 minute roll every time, you will be highly disappointed over and over. Be happy if the shooter has a 5 minute roll and run. And even that is not a given.

The only time I stick around for a shot at the long roll is if I am 'free rolling' it. Meaning, I have already won money and then I take a portion of my winnings and let it ride....hoping for the best but expecting the worst. No fear and no great expectations.

I do hedge as well to protect box bets.

Good luck and stay smart!

Simple. If you're up $2K, walk.

Ok math gurus; question...

Lets say we have the same type of scenario; I walk up with $1500 and I am up 2k, and there is a lot of money still on the table. If I were to call my bets "off" every other roll, what does that do to my percentage of losing all of my bets after 20-30 some odd rolls?

Quote: mikes0805

Ok math gurus; question...

Lets say we have the same type of scenario; I walk up with $1500 and I am up 2k, and there is a lot of money still on the table. If I were to call my bets "off" every other roll, what does that do to my percentage of losing all of my bets after 20-30 some odd rolls?

1. Does the 2k include the money on the table?
2. What bets do you have on the table?
3. If you call your bets "off" every other roll, you will be very unpopular with the dealers.

No lets say I am up 2k (in my rail) and I have 540+ across plus hard ways. I'm sure they (dealers) won't like it but for the purpose of this equation they don't care lol. The shooter has rolled approx. 20-30 times, with an occasional seven in between points.

Quote: 100xOdds

How to minimize the $ on the table when the 7 eventually comes?

You hear about the stock investor who asked how to buy at the exact bottom and sell at the exact top of the market?

I once saw a guy lose well over 10 grand when the 7 roll. But he had gone from about 2 grand to over 50 grand in the last two shooters. He continuously pressed and never pulled his bets down.

If you are up 2K in your rail then why not leave that $540 across (or whatever it is) up and hope for even bigger profit? The worst that happens is the next roll is a 7 and you walk away up 2 grand.

It's not like a good long roll doesn't necessarily have any 7s rolled. It's all about when they're rolled that counts.

Quote: mikes0805

Lets say we have the same type of scenario; I walk up with $1500 and I am up 2k, and there is a lot of money still on the table. If I were to call my bets "off" every other roll, what does that do to my percentage of losing all of my bets after 20-30 some odd rolls?

No lets say I am up 2k (in my rail) and I have 540+ across plus hard ways. I'm sure they (dealers) won't like it but for the purpose of this equation they don't care lol. The shooter has rolled approx. 20-30 times, with an occasional seven in between points.

It doesn't matter how many times he's rolled, or how many sevens have occurred on comeout rolls. It sounds like you have 24 ways to win a bet (losing the hardway if a number rolls soft) and 6 ways to lose it all. So, for every roll, you have a .67 probability of winning some bet, a .167 probability of losing it all, and a .167 probability of a non-resolving roll; ignoring the non-resolving rolls, you have a .8 probability of a win and a .2 probability of losing the $540+.

By calling your bets off every other roll, you avoid the risk on those rolls, but you also waste one of the 24 if it rolls. You might as well just guess. OTOH, presumably the reason you haven't taken all your bets down is that you want to win some more money. Let's say you have these bets (ignoring the hardways):

80+4 90 +4 96 96 90 +4 80 +4 (buy on 5/9, 4/10)
Your wins will be 156, 131, 112, the weighted average of which is 129.3, so 4 wins before a loss will almost break even, assuming you replace each win rather than pressing further.

Here are the probabilities of different numbers of hits before the seven:
0 .2 lose it all
1 .16 (cum .36) win one, average amount $129, then lose $540 ~= -411
2 .128 (cum .488) etc.
3 .1024 (cum .5904)
4 .08192 (cum .67232)
5 .065536 (cum .737856)

So, 59% of the time you won't get 4 hits before the seven. The average number of hits is four. (BTW, notice all the powers of two in there?)
NOTE: those numbers only apply before the first decision. IOW, if you hit a number, the .16 probability is now for two hits, since you've already hit one. (The underlying probabilities are always .8 and .2.)

Here's another approach: each number that hits, take that bet down, so you reduce the amount lost when the seven comes. So, let's say you hit a 4, win $156 and take that bet down; now you only have $456 out there to lose.

Another approach would be to take everything down if you win one, or two.

It's all a matter of how much is the money out there worth to you, compared to what you might win if you keep betting.

However, skipping rolls has no effect whatsoever on your chances, unless you are clairvoyant.

Thank you for the math my man!!