Yet another pressing strategy

Thx to MathExtremist's post about the Golden Ratio press (~62%), I increased my pressing strategy from 25% to doing Fibonacci #s.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/craps/9431-craps-optimum-pressing-strategy/#post138892

At $10min with 3/4/5x odds, I have $300 on the table if I have all the #s (4,5,6,8,9,10).

originally, I start to press 60% (50% of winnings) when I have won $300. that way, I don't risk more till I won back my outlay.
the problem is that if a 7 comes shortly I start pressing. I don't win that much.

my new pressing strategy:
after I win $580, I power press by pressing 100% of my winnings.
so I don't press till I won back my outlay PLUS $280 in profit. then I full press.


Analysis:
when I hit a #, I win $70.
In my old strategy, I press $35 and keep $35 in profit. to win $280, I need to hit 8 #s.
In my new strategy, I keep all $70 till I have $280 in profit then press all $70. I just need to hit 4 #s to reach $280.

the amount of $ I have on the table when 8 #s hit after I start pressing is the same as my old strategy.
I just lock in profits earlier w/my new strategy. and if less than 8 #s hit I come out ahead.


What do you think?

I like to keep it simple and just press when clearly I am ahead, but I routinely only have about $50 on the table - in other words, I don't automatically pile on the come bets but consider that pressing in itself.

Let me ask you this. You mention having all the #s covered at some point; I think you mean you get them all without place betting, and it sounds like right-side betting. When I go this route, which is pressing for me to begin with, I seldom build up all the numbers. In fact, and this is the question I have for you, I find that when I am raking in the chips it's because the same numbers are hitting and I am having to keep replacing the same number several times rather than finding I built up all the numbers that haven't hit [a situation the 7-out loves to come in on]. Don't you experience this as well?

again, it all depends on what your goals are.

If you go to Vegas once a year and take $10,000 along and care if you bring any of it home,
you can start big and press big, and more than likely go home broke.

Now and then you can hit the big roll, light the cigar and act like a high roller.

For most good players, they wont press until they have their starting position back
and then some, and only then they will press the numbers they hit.

I know a number of so called high rollers that press onthe first hit on every number, or press
the 6 & 8 on every hit of another number. Their yearly losses are staggering, but they dont care,
that one large win a year is all that counts.

Not smart, but, people have a right to play how ever they want with their money.

Gman

again, it all depends on what your goals are.

If you go to Vegas once a year and take $10,000 along and care if you bring any of it home,
you can start big and press big, and more than likely go home broke.

Now and then you can hit the big roll, light the cigar and act like a high roller.

For most good players, they wont press until they have their starting position back
and then some, and only then they will press the numbers they hit.

I know a number of so called high rollers that press onthe first hit on every number, or press
the 6 & 8 on every hit of another number. Their yearly losses are staggering, but they dont care,
that one large win a year is all that counts.

Not smart, but, people have a right to play how ever they want with their money.

Gman

I'm one of those who starts pressing only after the original outlay on each shooter is won back and in my rail. I am a place bettor so if I am at a $10 table I could have $54 across plus full odds, and at a $25 table it could be $135 across plus full odds.

Someone who is a come bettor with odds might be more aggressive with their pressing and actually have a lot less money at risk than I do and I couldn't fault them for pressing aggressively with having less at risk than me.

I also can't criticize those who do believe in dice influencing or signature numbers and tend to press the numbers that are hit. After all, that is the only way to win at craps: to bet the numbers that hit (and avoid those that don't) and press the numbers that keep hitting. If only we could see the future!

Remember the Twilight Zone about the magical camera that can see the future and they take it to the race track and get the final results before the race even starts? Well wouldn't we all want a cell phone camera that we can point at the layout to see the next roll?

Quote: odiousgambit

I like to keep it simple and just press when clearly I am ahead, but I routinely only have about $50 on the table - in other words, I don't automatically pile on the come bets but consider that pressing in itself.

Let me ask you this. You mention having all the #s covered at some point; I think you mean you get them all without place betting, and it sounds like right-side betting. When I go this route, which is pressing for me to begin with, I seldom build up all the numbers. In fact, and this is the question I have for you, I find that when I am raking in the chips it's because the same numbers are hitting and I am having to keep replacing the same number several times rather than finding I built up all the numbers that haven't hit [a situation the 7-out loves to come in on]. Don't you experience this as well?

of course having the same # hitting over and over again is better, especially for my pressing.

ie: $50 on the 4. press to $100, 200, 400

that's 4 hits. much better than hitting 4 different #s at $50 one time.
ie: hitting the 5,6,8,9 once at $50 each.

as for continuous come vs non-continuous:
-I view the come bet as a hedge against the 7.
-#s rolled are random. if you do Passline + 2 Come bets, there's a chance the 4th # might hit over and over again.
hm.. I guess mathematically it makes no difference. you can also have all the #s (4,5,6,8,9,10) and not hit a repeater when the 7 comes.

but my bankroll is large enough for a Continuous Come strategy

so I tried my new strategy last nite and I like it better.

I've had a few rolls where I won back my original outlay but then 7 out shortly thereafter. I won more $ by taking profits and not pressing immediately after my outlay was covered.

the trade off is if the same # is hit over and over again after my outlay is covered then I don't make as much $.
but I think I prefer taking some profits before trying for that homerun.

it feels better for me to see more $ after a moderate run than look down and see around the same # of chips as when the run first began.

I like pressing the number rolled AND its sister on each press after collecting 3 hits. So if the 6 rolls, then press the 6 and 8, 4 rolls so press the 4 and 10, etc. This works better for me than individual number pressing.

Quote: AlanMendelson

... I am a place bettor so if I am at a $10 table I could have $54 across plus full odds, and at a $25 table it could be $135 across plus full odds.

Remember the Twilight Zone about the magical camera that can see the future and they take it to the race track and get the final results before the race even starts? Well wouldn't we all want a cell phone camera that we can point at the layout to see the next roll?

Alan how do you have place bets with full odds?

I have that episode of The Twilight Zone recorded..."A Most Unusual Camera." It's one of my faves. Along a similar line is "What You Need," remember that one? An old guy who sells things out of a suitcase, probably the original street vendor, knows what people need before they need them. Classic.

Quote: dwm

I like pressing the number rolled AND its sister on each press after collecting 3 hits. So if the 6 rolls, then press the 6 and 8, 4 rolls so press the 4 and 10, etc. This works better for me than individual number pressing.

I agree with you dwm, start with 60 outside ($15 each on 4,5,9,10) when 4 or 10 comes, Buy both for $25 w/nickel change. When 5 or 9 comes press both to $25 and just sit back and collect profits after next number comes.