Epiphany: Buying 4/10 > Placing 6/8 because of the PSO
Placing 6/8 = 1.52% House edge
Buying 4/10 = 1.67% HE (Vig paid after the win)
I do Passline and continuous Come.
After the passline roll, I place the 6&8 for $24 each because I like action.
If I hit, it pays for the odds.
but if a point seven out (pso) comes, that's $48 lost. And that KILLED me today. :(
On my way home, I thought of ways of lessening the pain of a PSO while maintaining the increased action.
Then it hit me:
Buying the 4&10 for $10 each. if I hit, it also pays for the odds.
The difference is a slightly higher HE but I have less than 1/2 the $ at risk.
After 6 pso's in today's 2hr session, it would have saved me $168.
Eureka?
Quote: 100xOddsEureka?
No. Not Eureka. A different -EV bet that will pay you differently but still lose slightly more of your money over the long run, due to the larger house edge.
I know you probably get tired of hearing this on this board, but craps is a negative game. In the long run you will lose, it makes little difference what bets you pick.
If I were you, I'd stick to the continuous come with odds, and just skip the place/buy. That should be enough "action" for you.
Above all, have fun. Enjoy the wins. Budget for your bankroll. Cheers.
Quote: 100xOdds3/4/5x odds, $10 min
Placing 6/8 = 1.52% House edge
Buying 4/10 = 1.67% HE (Vig paid after the win)
I do Passline and continuous Come.
After the passline roll, I place the 6&8 for $24 each because I like action.
If I hit, it pays for the odds.
but if a point seven out (pso) comes, that's $48 lost. And that KILLED me today. :(
On my way home, I thought of ways of lessening the pain of a PSO while maintaining the increased action.
Then it hit me:
Buying the 4&10 for $10 each. if I hit, it also pays for the odds.
The difference is a slightly higher HE but I have $28 less at risk.
After 6 pso's in today's 2hr session, it would have saved me $168.
Eureka?
You might not Like this idea but this has worked for me....
I have literally eliminated betting the roll after the come out.. Basically ensuring I will never go out to a PSO ever again. This alone will save you 10%-30% of your bankroll over your entire career. Do the math, you'll thank me later. or just try it on your next run
Quote: TheWolf713You might not Like this idea but this has worked for me....
I have literally eliminated betting the roll after the come out.. Basically ensuring I will never go out to a PSO ever again. This alone will save you 10%-30% of your bankroll over your entire career. Do the math, you'll thank me later. or just try it on your next run
You must be using gr8player's math. lol
Quote: Beethoven9thQuote: TheWolf713You might not Like this idea but this has worked for me....
I have literally eliminated betting the roll after the come out.. Basically ensuring I will never go out to a PSO ever again. This alone will save you 10%-30% of your bankroll over your entire career. Do the math, you'll thank me later. or just try it on your next run
You must be using gr8player's math. lol
Pretty quick to condemn there B.
Your comparing a tambourine to a Shigeru Kawai or a Steinway.
I thought it was a simple statement that reflected quick back of envelope math.
Every roll has the one in six chance of a 7, agreed? His statement didn't even say he bet the passline, just skip the first one after and said it would be money saved over a career. Mustangsally posted a great explanation about the difference between average and mean. I think 8.5 or 3.8 rolls respectively. So by not betting until one has passed or around 16.67%, at one in six, I think that was a fair statement.
Where's the proof or disproof for the comparison to the great one. Different game also, by the way.
Quote: petroglyphI thought it was a simple statement that reflected quick back of envelope math.
Where's the proof or disproof for the comparison to the great one.
Sorry, but the burden of proof is on you guys, not me. You are the ones claiming that sitting out one roll on each pass "will save you 10%-30% of your bankroll over your entire career". Please show me the "quick back of envelope math" that proves the 10-30% figure.
Quote: Beethoven9thQuote: petroglyphI thought it was a simple statement that reflected quick back of envelope math.
Where's the proof or disproof for the comparison to the great one.
Sorry, but the burden of proof is on you guys, not me. You are the ones claiming that sitting out one roll on each pass "will save you 10%-30% of your bankroll over your entire career". Please show me the "quick back of envelope math" that proves the 10-30% figure.
How many rolls are the roll after the point is set? If you follow this strategy, you'll wager less over your career by whatever that percentage of rolls is. Of course, you'll really only save the HE on those avoided rolls - if you'd made the bets, you'd have won almost half and lost only slightly more than half. And, there's not a chance in hell that that product is 10-30% of your bankroll. Maybe somebody's napkin was smudged or something...
Quote: Beethoven9thQuote: petroglyphI thought it was a simple statement that reflected quick back of envelope math.
Where's the proof or disproof for the comparison to the great one.
Sorry, but the burden of proof is on you guys, not me. You are the ones claiming that sitting out one roll on each pass "will save you 10%-30% of your bankroll over your entire career". Please show me the "quick back of envelope math" that proves the 10-30% figure.
I thought my explanation would be evidence enough. If saying that if you don't bet it you can't lose it isn't good enough I'm sol.
Was there some disagreement on one in six rolls being a seven?
Quote: petroglyphQuote: Beethoven9thQuote: petroglyphI thought it was a simple statement that reflected quick back of envelope math.
Where's the proof or disproof for the comparison to the great one.
Sorry, but the burden of proof is on you guys, not me. You are the ones claiming that sitting out one roll on each pass "will save you 10%-30% of your bankroll over your entire career". Please show me the "quick back of envelope math" that proves the 10-30% figure.
I thought my explanation would be evidence enough. If saying that if you don't bet it you can't lose it isn't good enough I'm sol.
Was there some disagreement on one in six rolls being a seven?
There's some compounding to consider, isn't there? 1 in 6 is a 7, but not all 7s happen at the right time to matter for the "skip the roll after a point is set" bit. also, while you can't lose money that you don't bet, you can't win wagers that you don't place, either. And the 10-30% number only holds if we make the horrible assumption that (nearly) all wagered money is lost.
Quote: rdw4potusQuote: petroglyphQuote: Beethoven9thQuote: petroglyphI thought it was a simple statement that reflected quick back of envelope math.
Where's the proof or disproof for the comparison to the great one.
Sorry, but the burden of proof is on you guys, not me. You are the ones claiming that sitting out one roll on each pass "will save you 10%-30% of your bankroll over your entire career". Please show me the "quick back of envelope math" that proves the 10-30% figure.
I thought my explanation would be evidence enough. If saying that if you don't bet it you can't lose it isn't good enough I'm sol.
Was there some disagreement on one in six rolls being a seven?
There's some compounding to consider, isn't there? 1 in 6 is a 7, but not all 7s happen at the right time to matter for the "skip the roll after a point is set" bit. also, while you can't lose money that you don't bet, you can't win wagers that you don't place, either. And the 10-30% number only holds if we make the horrible assumption that (nearly) all wagered money is lost.
Do you have an alternative suggestion on how to win more or lose less at craps? Other than some constant come betting scheme.
I'm all ears.
I'm not proficient at math and don't pretend to be. I like craps. I try to post as accurately as I can about what seems apparent at the tables to me. If anyone plays strictly by the math of the game, they wouldn't play, period.
Sally posted it today, 7craps a while back put it up on wov, real well. Most players go out on either the 3rd or 4th roll including the co, lending credence to Scoblete's 5 count. I agree also you can't win if you don't bet.
As far as the assumption that nearly all wagered money is lost. I can see where someone might think that. I think table "hold" varies from between 20 to 40% or more, and that doesn't include tips. How do you want to play?
Plus... not many places will pay $19 from a $10 bet on the 4/10. Most likely you'll get 18, or even if you get 19, that's a significantly higher HE than the 6/8.
LOLQuote: rdw4potusAnd, there's not a chance in hell that that product is 10-30% of your bankroll. Maybe somebody's napkin was smudged or something...
Maybe I'm blind, but I didn't see anything at all that explained the 10-30% figure.Quote: petroglyphI thought my explanation would be evidence enough.
(Also, that's why I had initially made the smarta** remark about using gr8player's math...because none was given!)
But that's not what he said. He had stated that you could save 10-30% of your bankroll over your entire career if you don't bet on the roll right after the come-out. Show me how/why you agree with this figure.Quote: petroglyphIf saying that if you don't bet it you can't lose it isn't good enough I'm sol.
Good god people. It's that effing simple. The amount of time wasted on this board debating the finer points of how to combine multiple different -EV bets. Christ on a cracker.
Quote: AcesAndEightsCRAPS IS A NEGATIVE EXPECTATION GAME. YOU WILL LOSE MONEY IF YOU PLAY IT. NO COMBINATION OF BETS WILL CAUSE YOU TO NOT LOSE MONEY.
Good god people. It's that effing simple. The amount of time wasted on this board debating the finer points of how to combine multiple different -EV bets. Christ on a cracker.
LOL........+1
Quote: petroglyphDifferent game also, by the way.
So? Mathematics still applies to each, and they are both negative expectation games.
Quote: Beethoven9thLOL........+1
So? Mathematics still applies to each, and they are both negative expectation games.
Maybe the answers you need are here?
The Age of Narcissism
"Narcissism falls along the axis of what psychologists call personality disorders, one of a group that includes antisocial, dependent, histrionic, avoidant and borderline personalities.
But by most measures, narcissism is one of the worst, if only because the narcissists themselves are so clueless."
Jeffrey Kluger
“Hate is the complement of fear and narcissists like being feared. It imbues them with an intoxicating sensation of omnipotence...
The sadistic narcissist perceives himself as godlike, ruthless and devoid of scruples, capricious and unfathomable, emotion-less and non-sexual, omniscient, omnipotent and omni-present, a plague, a devastation, an inescapable verdict.”
Sam Vaknin
If you wish to see the narcissist in their natural habitat, the chat boards and comment sections of some blogs are where the marginally successful dwell, often dominating the conversation with their self-obsessed arrogance. Sometimes in periods of unusual circumstances they can even rise to positions of power. They are attracted to corporate structures, and financial and political positions.
They have no humility, no doubts, and no empathy. Whatever life or luck or others may have helped them to achieve, they feel that they deserve it all, and more. They have worked for everything they have, whereas others who have suffered setbacks and misfortune simply have made bad choices or been lazy. And if others have been cheated and abused, then they deserve it for being stupid.
They are often judgmental and racist, and brimming over with hateful scorn for others, unless they can be co-opted into their sphere of influence and behave according to the narcissist's world and rules.
As Thomas Aquinas said, 'well-ordered self-love is right and natural.' It is when this natural behaviour becomes excessive and twisted that it becomes a pathology, a disorder of the personality.
Often narcissists have exaggerated ideas about their own talents and worth and work. Sometimes they are compensating for the neglect and disregard, or even abuse, of one or both parents who failed to see and appreciate how special they are. At other times they are the product of an environment in which they have been raised to believe that they are special, and deserve special treatment and consideration. Since obviously not all children of privilege or abuse become narcissists, it might have its genesis in an untreated form of depression or genetic predisposition.
"The classic narcissist is overly self-confident and sees themselves as superior than other people. Think of a child who has always been told by mom and dad that they would be great, and then that child takes and internally distorts that message into superiority.
The compensatory narcissist covers up with their grandiose behavior, a deep-seated deficit in self-esteem. Think of a child who felt devalued but instead of giving up on life, resorts to fantasies of grandeur and greatness. This person will either live in that fantasy world or decide to create that fantasy world in real life."
If this affliction is accompanied by other problems such as sadism or malignant mania, they may become a destructive element for all who encounter them. Their illness affects others more than themselves, so they may often not seek treatment, and excuse the damage they inflict with the 'weakness' of others.
They seek to fill the great empty holes of self-loathing with the lives and possessions of others, all the while proudly wreathing their actions with self serving rationalization.
They are more to be pitied than scorned, as they are living in a small part the hell which they are making for themselves. But we must guard ourselves against their powerful certainty in an age of uncertainty. Their certainty is a madness which serves none but itself.
"Narcissism is a psychological condition defined as an obsession with the self. While not all forms of self-love or self-interest are destructive, extreme cases can be very damaging and may be diagnosed as narcissistic personality disorder (NPD).
In these instances, the disorder is characterized by a lack of empathy for others, sadistic or destructive tendencies, and a compulsion to satisfy personal needs above all other goals.
People suffering from NPD tend to have difficulty establishing or maintaining friendships, close family relationships, and even careers. About 1% of people have this condition, and up to 3/4 of those diagnosed with it are men.
The signs of narcissism often revolve around a person's perception of himself in comparison to other people.
Those with severe cases often believe they are naturally superior to others or that they possess extraordinary capabilities. They may have extreme difficulty acknowledging personal weaknesses, yet also have fragile self-esteem.
Narcissistic people also frequently believe that they are not truly appreciated, and can be prone to outbursts of anger, jealousy, and self-loathing when they do not get what they feel they deserve."
Hallmarks of Narcissism
A pervasive pattern of grandiosity (in fantasy or behavior), need for admiration, and lack of empathy, beginning by early adulthood and present in a variety of contexts, as indicated by five (or more) of the following:
•Lacks empathy: is unwilling to recognize or identify with the feelings and needs of others
•Has a grandiose sense of self-importance (e.g., exaggerates achievements and talents, expects to be recognized as superior without commensurate achievements)
•Has a sense of entitlement, i.e., unreasonable expectations of especially favorable treatment or automatic compliance with his or her expectations
•Is interpersonally exploitative, i.e., takes advantage of others to achieve his or her own ends
•Is often envious of others or believes others are envious of him or her
•Requires excessive admiration
•Shows arrogant, haughty behaviors or attitudes
•Believes that he or she is "special" and unique and can only be understood by, or should associate with, other special or high-status people (or institutions)
•Is preoccupied with fantasies of unlimited success, power, brilliance, beauty, or ideal love
Quoted from Jesse's Café american
Quote: 100xOdds3/4/5x odds, $10 min
Placing 6/8 = 1.52% House edge
Buying 4/10 = 1.67% HE (Vig paid after the win)
I do Passline and continuous Come.
After the passline roll, I place the 6&8 for $24 each because I like action.
If I hit, it pays for the odds.
but if a point seven out (pso) comes, that's $48 lost. And that KILLED me today. :(
On my way home, I thought of ways of lessening the pain of a PSO while maintaining the increased action.
Then it hit me:
Buying the 4&10 for $10 each. if I hit, it also pays for the odds.
The difference is a slightly higher HE but I have less than 1/2 the $ at risk.
After 6 pso's in today's 2hr session, it would have saved me $168.
Eureka?
Why don't you just:
1) place the 4 and 10 for 15.00 each
2) after just one win you Buy the 4 and 10 for $25 each (Using your winnings only)
3) after another win you can pull all bets back and lock in an easy 100.00 profit from a simple $30.00 risk.
$30.00 investment with $100.00 R.O.I is not a bad deal.
Try it and thank me later.
Quote: AcesAndEightsCRAPS IS A NEGATIVE EXPECTATION GAME. YOU WILL LOSE MONEY IF YOU PLAY IT. NO COMBINATION OF BETS WILL CAUSE YOU TO NOT LOSE MONEY.
Good god people. It's that effing simple. The amount of time wasted on this board debating the finer points of how to combine multiple different -EV bets. Christ on a cracker.
An off-brand cracker, at that, if the bettor has too much faith in his system.
Quote: GoldMemberWhy don't you just:
1) place the 4 and 10 for 15.00 each
2) after just one win you Buy the 4 and 10 for $25 each (Using your winnings only)
3) after another win you can pull all bets back and lock in an easy 100.00 profit from a simple $30.00 risk.
$30.00 investment with $100.00 R.O.I is not a bad deal.
Try it and thank me later.
On behalf of all the world's casinos, I thank you for placing the 4/10 to begin with.
Become a darksider. The PSO suddenly becomes your best friend :-)
Quote: AcesAndEightsNo. Not Eureka. A different -EV bet that will pay you differently but still lose slightly more of your money over the long run, due to the larger house edge.
I know you probably get tired of hearing this on this board, but craps is a negative game. In the long run you will lose, it makes little difference what bets you pick.
If I were you, I'd stick to the continuous come with odds, and just skip the place/buy. That should be enough "action" for you.
Above all, have fun. Enjoy the wins. Budget for your bankroll. Cheers.
yes, having fun is the point of craps for me.
yes, its a neg -EV game so in the long run the HE gets me.
but minimizing the amount $ I lose to a pso while maintaining action makes it more fun for that session.
Quote: TheWolf713You might not Like this idea but this has worked for me....
I have literally eliminated betting the roll after the come out.. Basically ensuring I will never go out to a PSO ever again. This alone will save you 10%-30% of your bankroll over your entire career. Do the math, you'll thank me later. or just try it on your next run
What am *I* missing? The PSO is unavoidable for the Pass line, as you can't remove that bet. It sounds like you are just waiting for a point to be set, then one more roll of the dice, then making a come bet or place bet or whatever.
I'm not buying the idea that this makes any difference other than it might keep down your total action against the HE, which of course does preserve bankroll. If so that is no more profound than saying not gambling at all in negative expectation should preserve your bankroll.
Quote: petroglyphMaybe the answers you need are here?
The Age of Narcissism...
[snip]
I would have posted that too if the math didn't support my position. ;)
Quote: GoldMemberWhy don't you just:
1) place the 4 and 10 for 15.00 each
2) after just one win you Buy the 4 and 10 for $25 each (Using your winnings only)
3) after another win you can pull all bets back and lock in an easy 100.00 profit from a simple $30.00 risk.
$30.00 investment with $100.00 R.O.I is not a bad deal.
Try it and thank me later.
Looks like gr8varmenti knows craps like he knows baccarat. lol
Quote: Beethoven9thLooks like gr8varmenti knows craps like he knows baccarat. lol
Craps is not varmenti's only "area of expertise". As I'm sure you've noted in past spews of wisdom on other games and topics.
Quote: FrankScobleteIn New Mexico there are casinos that have no vig on placing the 4 or 10. In short, no house edge. In such cases those two numbers should be the only ones you bet.
Santa Ana Star, Field triples Midnight and Snake Eyes also, wish I had some excuse to go to NM, but can't go just for that!
Quote: Beethoven9th
I would have posted that too if the math didn't support my position. ;)
It's pretty tough to talk real world craps with guys who live in between derivatives... There is absolutely no calculation i can give that will beat the words "negative expectation". So rather than go down that road lets close that section...
Its like arguing about dying... We know that we're going to do die...and in craps, Everyone dies, but not everybody lives... I'm trying to give a little life here.
Now let's talk about actual play....
In actual play, not betting on roll #2 will save you money if you play a very frequently.
These are real craps stats. This is not "the book says bet 5X odds... And my EV is..." play... This is trench work.
I want you guys to try and picture the last session you really lost... Think about every bet and how it was decided.Think about every shooter for that entire session... And honestly ask yourself how much money would you have had if you merely skipped that second roll....
I'm just trying to give a different perspective that's all..
best post ever.
Exactly, that's why you have to be careful when you say that you'll save "10%-30% of your bankroll over your entire career" when you skip the roll after the come-out. This may give some newbies the wrong impression.Quote: TheWolf713It's pretty tough to talk real world craps with guys who live in between derivatives... There is absolutely no calculation i can give that will beat the words "negative expectation". So rather than go down that road lets close that section...
Well that goes without saying. Since craps is a negative expectation game, you save money ANY time you're not betting. Heck, you could even take it a step further and not bet on the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th, and 10th rolls. Then you'll save even more money!Quote: TheWolf713In actual play, not betting on roll #2 will save you money if you play a very frequently...
...I want you guys to try and picture the last session you really lost... Think about every bet and how it was decided.Think about every shooter for that entire session... And honestly ask yourself how much money would you have had if you merely skipped that second roll....
Quote: TheWolf713It's pretty tough to talk real world craps with guys who live in between derivatives... There is absolutely no calculation i can give that will beat the words "negative expectation". So rather than go down that road lets close that section...
Its like arguing about dying... We know that we're going to do die...and in craps, Everyone dies, but not everybody lives... I'm trying to give a little life here.
Now let's talk about actual play....
In actual play, not betting on roll #2 will save you money if you play a very frequently.
These are real craps stats. This is not "the book says bet 5X odds... And my EV is..." play... This is trench work.
I want you guys to try and picture the last session you really lost... Think about every bet and how it was decided.Think about every shooter for that entire session... And honestly ask yourself how much money would you have had if you merely skipped that second roll....
I'm just trying to give a different perspective that's all..
You're forgetting that one super complex overly contemplated calculation... stopping while you're ahead!
I've only played craps a handful of times and I'm ahead, would stopping now land me right about in the gardens of Eden?
