WTH???

I just returned from a short trip - one night, one day - to Albuquerque, NM; the closest place to home that has casino gambling. I go gambling every few months and, during trips, save up on my bankroll. Thursday evening (Halloween), the casino was unusually empty, and I pretty much had a craps table to myself, except for the occasional gambler or two who would stop by, and then move along after a single roll. Two sessions that night - one short, one long (into the wee hours). The first session got me up about 33% of my bankroll - all on a modest buy-in, playing minimum PL ($5) with anywhere between 2X - 5X odds (casino offers 10X odds). I was tipping heavily - $1 on the PL with every bet, as well as numerous dealer and two-way yos throughout each session. The second session was fantastic! I had the entire table to myself for most of the night, continued to tip heavily, and seemed to be hitting three out of the four points I would make. Occasionally, I would press those up too, but my main focus was on the PL with odds. Left for the night about + 80% of my bankroll. Quit because it was late and I started losing too often. What a rush though!

The following day saw a complete reversal of the previous evening. Continued to play primarily PL w/ odds, but couldn't hit my point to save my life. Was probably making one out of every four points. Still had the table pretty much to myself. Couldn't even hit my sixes and eights - and those I would back heavily with 5X odds, or occasionally more, usually.

Walked away a couple of times between buy-ins, only to come back to take another beating. Finally quit after I gave them back everything from the night before PLUS about 60% of my bankroll. What a lousy run!

So, I played exactly the same way both days - PL w/ odds, very few place bets. Any opinion whether this is a result of poor BR management, simple variance, or just poor luck? What else, poor strategy? I know lack of discipline has something to do with the last session. I'm still kicking myself for letting them get into my BR.

BTW, in case anyone reading is interested, the casino where I play boasts a free buy on the four and the ten, and the field pays double on the two and triple on the twelve. I am told that most casinos in Albuquerque have adopted the free buy on the four and ten. Not sure about the Isleta (used to be Hard Rock Albuquerque, before which it was the Isleta casino).

Variance, and you shouldn't bet the Yo.

Furthermore, you were chasing. The first night you said you went, "Between 2-5x odds," and the second night you said, "...with 5x odds, or occasionally more, usually."

Some people advocate maxing out on odds, because they view it as bringing down the overall edge of the total action. While true, I don't necessarily agree with any Philosophical need to take Odds: the Odds bet is not a required bet and has a long-term expectation of nothing, so having exposed the Pass Line bet to the House Edge already, (and nothing can change that) I view the Odds as immaterial, just increases or decreases Variance. There are many who disagree with my assessment, and again, it's just how you look at the Odds, from a Philosophical standpoint.

Consider the double-up feature on many Video Poker games: when should you cease doubling up? I don't know. I suppose, if the machine is less than 100%, (even factoring in comps) then you should stop when you end up with a handpay, or maybe stop if the next double would cause a handpay, depending if you have the losses to cover it. Why? Because it's essentially exposing your winning poker hand to zero odds, which is the best you'll get on that machine.

Again, I consider them two separate bets for just this reason. The only difference between the two is that the video poker double-up occurs only after a specific outcome has already been resolved.

Anyway, when you ramp up that Odds bet, you increase the Variance. It has nothing to do with whether you win or lose, but whichever the case ends up being, you're going to end up doing it faster.

Part of the game.

How many gamblers would be far richer if they just quit when they were ahead rather than head back the next day and think that their positive variance would continue?

Quote: boymimbo

How many gamblers would be far richer if they just quit when they were ahead rather than head back the next day and think that their positive variance would continue?

All of them? :-)

Quote: newshooter

I just returned from a short trip - one night, one day - to Albuquerque, NM; the closest place to home that has casino gambling. I go gambling every few months and, during trips, save up on my bankroll. Thursday evening (Halloween), the casino was unusually empty, and I pretty much had a craps table to myself, except for the occasional gambler or two who would stop by, and then move along after a single roll. Two sessions that night - one short, one long (into the wee hours). The first session got me up about 33% of my bankroll - all on a modest buy-in, playing minimum PL ($5) with anywhere between 2X - 5X odds (casino offers 10X odds). I was tipping heavily - $1 on the PL with every bet, as well as numerous dealer and two-way yos throughout each session. The second session was fantastic! I had the entire table to myself for most of the night, continued to tip heavily, and seemed to be hitting three out of the four points I would make. Occasionally, I would press those up too, but my main focus was on the PL with odds. Left for the night about + 80% of my bankroll. Quit because it was late and I started losing too often. What a rush though!

The following day saw a complete reversal of the previous evening. Continued to play primarily PL w/ odds, but couldn't hit my point to save my life. Was probably making one out of every four points. Still had the table pretty much to myself. Couldn't even hit my sixes and eights - and those I would back heavily with 5X odds, or occasionally more, usually.

Walked away a couple of times between buy-ins, only to come back to take another beating. Finally quit after I gave them back everything from the night before PLUS about 60% of my bankroll. What a lousy run!

So, I played exactly the same way both days - PL w/ odds, very few place bets. Any opinion whether this is a result of poor BR management, simple variance, or just poor luck? What else, poor strategy? I know lack of discipline has something to do with the last session. I'm still kicking myself for letting them get into my BR.

BTW, in case anyone reading is interested, the casino where I play boasts a free buy on the four and the ten, and the field pays double on the two and triple on the twelve. I am told that most casinos in Albuquerque have adopted the free buy on the four and ten. Not sure about the Isleta (used to be Hard Rock Albuquerque, before which it was the Isleta casino).

I do the same thing. Refuse to leave when I'm ahead, always going to win big, or bust out trying.

Whether or not we admit it, it looks like the op had saved up enough of a bank to go play craps and have x amount of fun. Seems like it went exactly according to plan. It's more fun that way to win first and give it back then lose first and try to play catch up.

I think its good to have loss limit's and try to leave at least once in a while ahead, fueling the dream that we are winner's.

Quote: petroglyph

I do the same thing. Refuse to leave when I'm ahead, always going to win big, or bust out trying.

Whether or not we admit it, it looks like the op had saved up enough of a bank to go play craps and have x amount of fun. Seems like it went exactly according to plan. It's more fun that way to win first and give it back then lose first and try to play catch up.

I think its good to have loss limit's and try to leave at least once in a while ahead, fueling the dream that we are winner's.

Simple variance. If kicking yourself will help, go right ahead, but the game of craps has no +ev bet, so if you play long enough (seems like you did), you're going to lose. It takes a very strong will to get up when you're winning and not give it back; I am susceptible to this as well.

Understood... But hard to swallow, especially when one sees how well it can go. Thanks.

Thanks for all of the responses. Looks like the focus is on variance, with some allusion to BR management - how the odds affect volitility. Kicking myself did make it a little better, but am pretty much over it now. I gamble only with money set aside, after everything else is paid for and taken care of. I can take some solice in the fact that I at least had SOME degree of self-discipline, as I did not allow them to take my entire BR - walked away when I had time to stay. I just find it hard to stomach such a dramatic swing. Tell you what, though, the upswings are quite a rush!!! Thanks again for all the replies. Although I don't post much, I often read the posts on the site and appreciate all the combined wisdom here.

Mission - why no "Yos?" Even occasionally??? As a way to tip?

Quote: beachbumbabs

Simple variance. If kicking yourself will help, go right ahead, but the game of craps has no +ev bet, so if you play long enough (seems like you did), you're going to lose. It takes a very strong will to get up when you're winning and not give it back; I am susceptible to this as well.

Babs, people play for different reasons.

Some play for the camaraderie,

Some play for the action.


Me, I'm just in it for the pain.

It will be very difficult for you to ever win betting low stakes and tipping as much as you do.

Quote: petroglyph

Babs, people play for different reasons.

Some play for the camaraderie,

Some play for the action.


Me, I'm just in it for the pain.

Boy, is there a lot of truth in that observation. LOL...

Before you beat yourself up over losing 60% of your bankroll...

Why did you go to the casino? To have fun, or to win money?

If you went to win money, you didn't and you have have to suck it up -- after all you were playing a negative expectation game.
But if you went to have fun playing craps and you did have fun -- then you fulfilled your goal. Congratulations.

So many will comment that the goal of playing is to win money. Sure I'd like to win money. But if I really wanted to "win money" there are some covered calls I could sell on Wall Street that I know will lock in a profit for me.

Quote: petroglyph

Me, I'm just in it for the pain.

This is you:

Quote: VCUSkyhawk

This is you:

Ouch, that hurt, thanks.

If I'm going to be Pacino, I prefer "scent of a woman"

I see myself more of a Bruce Willis type though.

Are you a lifetime winner?

Quote: SOOPOO

It will be very difficult for you to ever win betting low stakes and tipping as much as you do.

+1. Good point. There's no reason to tip $1 on the P/L every hand, especially for a flea. My tipping techniques vary at Craps, but usually, very late in the session, when I'm about to do my last round of shooting, I'll do a $1-$2 all the hardways for the crew if I'm ahead, and if I'm behind, I'll just toss them $5 - $10 "for the crew".

My biggest crap table tip was the $1 fire for the dealers - $1,000. I'll never, ever, ever give (well I didn't give) that much again, unless I happen to hit a 7-card SF or some malarky like that.

Just good and bad luck. Next time only make the 4 and 10 bets. If the house has no edge, that is the way to go.

Quote: FrankScoblete

Just good and bad luck. Next time only make the 4 and 10 bets. If the house has no edge, that is the way to go.

I agree. If I were in NM, I would simply buy/bet the 4/10 and nothing else (unless I was the only person there, then I'd bet the passline just to have a game; however, my main focus would be 4/10 with pressing)

Quote: petroglyph

Are you a lifetime winner?

Me? Oh no. I think Al was talking about me too.

Quote: newshooter

Thanks for all of the responses. Looks like the focus is on variance, with some allusion to BR management - how the odds affect volitility. Kicking myself did make it a little better, but am pretty much over it now. I gamble only with money set aside, after everything else is paid for and taken care of. I can take some solice in the fact that I at least had SOME degree of self-discipline, as I did not allow them to take my entire BR - walked away when I had time to stay. I just find it hard to stomach such a dramatic swing. Tell you what, though, the upswings are quite a rush!!! Thanks again for all the replies. Although I don't post much, I often read the posts on the site and appreciate all the combined wisdom here.

Mission - why no "Yos?" Even occasionally??? As a way to tip?

I wouldn't worry about a thing if you're playing exclusively with money set aside for that purpose, do whatever you like to do! It was a dramatic swing, and not in the preferred direction, but those are going to happen when you ramp up those Odds bets.

It just sounds like you experienced good ol' fashioned two-way chasing, first you chased a bigger win, and then you chased your losses. Only way you haven't ever done that is if you've never gambled, so it's something we've all done at some point.

The Yo' comes with a huge house edge, and while you'll occasionally experience the pleasure of seeing, "The boys," lock up a sizable tip, even the boys will be better in the long run with a White on the Pass Line for them, or even a simple occasional hand-in. I tip pretty heavily, though I tend to hand it in or put it on the Pass Line, usually $2 and give the dealers shoes for $4 if a point is established. Typically, I'll just hand in $1-$2 from every winning Odds bet, though.

Soopoo and Boy - point taken. I do have a tendancy to tip too much relative to my bet size, so I will work on taking it down a notch or two. In addition to what I wrote about in my initial post, I dropped a few more bucks on the hardways and firebets for the crew so, in retrospect, I can attribute a sizeable portion of my loss to tips. Estimating about 25% (and that's not overestimating); agreed, that's too much.

Frank and Clark - appreciate the advice on the four and ten. Not sure how long the house would tolerate a bettor working those two bets solely, especially if he/she is the only shooter a the table for an extended period, but I definitely need to consider those zero-edge bets. My last session, as luck would have it, saw an inordinate number of tens come up. Unfortunately, not when ten was the point. As a sidenote, may I mention how cool it is to have Frank Scoblete giving me advice on my craps play.

Mission and Alan - you're right. Overall, the trip was worth it from the standpoint of entertainment and I got to spend a lot of time at the table, working on my throw. If posted the amount I lost overall, I'm quite sure the members would laugh me off the boards. Need to keep things in perspective - it's just that huge swing from positive to negative that shook me. Regarding the yos, while I have only been playing craps for less than a year now (formerly exclusively a blackjack player), I was aware of the higher house edge on the yo bet. It's just one I've commonly seen made for the crew by other players, so I figured it was customary. If you think the crew's perspective would be that I make a PL bet occasionally, as opposed to a high HE bet, I will cut back on, or eliminate, the dealer yos. They just never objected!

Thanks to all for the responses and advice.

Quote: newshooter

Mission and Alan - you're right. Overall, the trip was worth it from the standpoint of entertainment and I got to spend a lot of time at the table, working on my throw. If posted the amount I lost overall, I'm quite sure the members would laugh me off the boards. Need to keep things in perspective - it's just that huge swing from positive to negative that shook me. Regarding the yos, while I have only been playing craps for less than a year now (formerly exclusively a blackjack player), I was aware of the higher house edge on the yo bet. It's just one I've commonly seen made for the crew by other players, so I figured it was customary. If you think the crew's perspective would be that I make a PL bet occasionally, as opposed to a high HE bet, I will cut back on, or eliminate, the dealer yos. They just never objected!

Thanks to all for the responses and advice.

I wouldn't laugh you off the board, I'll openly state that I'm almost guaranteed to be a smaller bettor than you are, it's a negative expectation game! You're talking about 5x+ Odds, nope, not for me, don't want the Variance. Time at table is very close to my main concern, so I stick pretty strictly to 2x Odds, regardless of the Max Odds allowed by the House, unless I'm feeling frisky for some reason. I often feel frisky if the point is 4/10, and then I'll go with the 3x, if allowed.

The dealers will certainly not object to a tip of any kind, unless they want to reduce the expected value of their tips to zero, because that's exactly what they will get if they start complaining about how much I tip or how I tip it! I've asked the dealers directly how they'd like it at the place I play the most, but they said they're not allowed to suggest what you do with the toke. Thus, I'm just talking in terms of EV, which is mathematically not going to change whether it is a toke bet or whether you are playing it yourself.

Thus, assuming you would tip the same total dollar amount, regardless of where you put it (or hand it in) then the hand-in has an EV of 100% of the amount that you are intending to tip. The PL bet with odds has an EV slightly less than that, again, assuming you'd be going with the same overall toke rate. Again, sometimes I'll tuck that $1-$2 of those winning Odds bet in a separate part of the rack and Go $2 with $4 odds when I reach the point where I have $6 in intended tokes held back. In the event of a CO winner/loser, then I'll wait for another winning Odds bet to set back another $2 and return it to $6 to toke, except I occasionally just hand in the other $4 if the $2 PL toke bet is a loser on the CO and then start the holding back process over. The point is, regardless of the result, I don't make a dealer toke bet unless they're actually going to lock something up one way or another.

In short, I have no idea what they would prefer and imagine it varies from dealer to dealer. They love seeing those $4 shoes on the PL when a point is established, though, that usually gets a, "Thanks for the try," from the dealer, box and stick, whereas I'll usually only hear that from the dealer OR the box on a CO loser, except for a crew that is used to me and know that the shoes would have been coming had the point been established, then they'll still all thank me for the try.

Now, if you feel that you make so many more dealer Yo bets (in terms of total bet) than you would in hand-ins or PL's+Odds or just PL's, then they could be better off with your dealer Yo's in the long run. I know a guy that I encouraged to switch up the way he tips, but it had a negative impact on the crew, because he forgot to ever tip when he stopped making those dealer Yo bets!!!