Thank you Wizard for an IMPORTANT Craps Website

In another thread someone wrote that this is not an advanced craps website:

Quote: Ahigh

This website is geared for the beginner craps player. I can appreciate that. Most questions about craps on this website are about betting systems and basic questions about which bets are best in the game.

I disagree and I want to thank the Wizard for providing what is truly an advanced website for playing and undertanding the game of craps.

First of all, the Forum allows a broad range of opinion about what strategies and beliefs players have and pretty much there is no censorship and that is good. It is important that different opinions have a chance to be discussed whether they be about "advantage play" or "dice influencing." Just try to dismiss DI or DC on certain boards and watch what happens -- you get bounced. On certain other "craps forums" if you don't agree with the site's owner you can't even be a member there. So thank you Wizard for allowing a free and open discussion.

But mostly what makes this site so valuable for advanced players is the opportunity to use the extensive info about the game of craps including factual statistics, rules, and comments made by the Wizard. I am also including the content on Wizard of Odds: https://wizardofodds.com/games/craps/ along with the extensive links.

What makes this site stand out, is that for the most part players will find very experienced players who know the reality of the game and won't be swept by sales pitches for the fantastic. If you think that you can "beat" the "math of the game" you are free to try. But at least we have a site here that lets us know what the math of the game is to make us better players.

It's my guess that the non-advanced players wouldn't even venture onto the pages with the detailed info that the Wizard has -- as the non-advanced players are too busy searching for the pot 'o gold that systems and techniques advertise as within reach.

Quote: AlanMendelson

In another thread someone wrote that this is not an advanced craps website:



I disagree and I want to thank the Wizard for providing what is truly an advanced website for playing and undertanding the game of craps.

First of all, the Forum allows a broad range of opinion about what strategies and beliefs players have and pretty much there is no censorship and that is good. It is important that different opinions have a chance to be discussed whether they be about "advantage play" or "dice influencing." Just try to dismiss DI or DC on certain boards and watch what happens -- you get bounced. On certain other "craps forums" if you don't agree with the site's owner you can't even be a member there. So thank you Wizard for allowing a free and open discussion.

But mostly what makes this site so valuable for advanced players is the opportunity to use the extensive info about the game of craps including factual statistics, rules, and comments made by the Wizard. I am also including the content on Wizard of Odds: https://wizardofodds.com/games/craps/ along with the extensive links.

What makes this site stand out, is that for the most part players will find very experienced players who know the reality of the game and won't be swept by sales pitches for the fantastic. If you think that you can "beat" the "math of the game" you are free to try. But at least we have a site here that lets us know what the math of the game is to make us better players.

It's my guess that the non-advanced players wouldn't even venture onto the pages with the detailed info that the Wizard has -- as the non-advanced players are too busy searching for the pot 'o gold that systems and techniques advertise as within reach.

Lots of people forget that gaming has TWO components: the math and the fun. The first is immutable. The second varies depending on the player.

Arguments start when players try to say that the math varies, or when math guys try to tell players what is fun. Pitched battles occur when both happen at the same time. In reality, players should understand that the fun is in overcoming the unchanging odds that are always in the house's favor. At the same time, math guys should understand that the definition of "a good bet" varies from player to player.

What I've always believed the best thing about The Wizard is that he simply presents the facts, and allows the player to use the information to his/her best judgement. IMO that is exactly how to please both types, and that is advanced understanding of gaming. Not games, but gaming. The human side as well as the numbers side.

Quote: Mosca

Arguments start when players try to say that the math varies, or when math guys try to tell players what is fun.

Couldn't agree more, especially the first part. For example, there are some trolls in the baccarat threads who say things like, "Your math says the casino has the edge, but MY math gives me the edge!" WTF??? Anyway, I agree with the OP that this is an important site.

Well you can suck up all you want to, but this a gambling site, not a craps site. Goes without saying this is not an advanced craps site. So why are you not on the advanced craps sites?

Thanks for the compliments.

Indeed, my Odds site is a math site. I don't endeavor to quantify the fun factor of bets or games. Some might say it is the variance that makes the fun, which I do indicate for most games, including craps.

Aside from not addressing fun, which I absolutely won't do, what else am I supposed to say about craps? The math is not that complicated. There is only so much to be said about the game.

Quote: Wizard

The math is not that complicated. There is only so much to be said about the game.

I think so.

Just what is "advanced Craps" anyway?

Yes indeed thanks to The Wizard for a great site and forum.

I just got back from a trip this weekend.Now on the last two trips I was a place and buy bettor and losing on short rolls.I think I lost $2800 and $2100 on my previous two trips.The point-7-out was killing me.This weekend I decided after reviewing the website again I was going to play a max odds game.So I put $54 across so I could catch the good rolls but my main focus was the 10x odds.I played $10 and $100 odds,if I hit I went to $15 and $150,if I hit then I went to $20 and $200,and so on and so forth.I had several people hit 1 or 2 rolls and occasionally a 3rd roll hit.I needed about $2500 to withstand the variances.I walked away this time a $5900 winner eliminating those 2 losses from the previous weeks.It was a good weekend.

Thanks again Wizard for a great group of sites and forum.

KB1

Quote: KB1

Thanks again Wizard for a great group of sites and forum.

You're welcome.

Quote: odiousgambit

I think so.

Just what is "advanced Craps" anyway?

Azzackly. Once the math is out there, any advancement is inside a player's mind. Maybe a way to train your mind to keep track of all the bets? A way to memorize the odds and payouts? But those are not craps-specific skills.

Quote: Wizard

Thanks for the compliments.

Indeed, my Odds site is a math site. I don't endeavor to quantify the fun factor of bets or games. Some might say it is the variance that makes the fun, which I do indicate for most games, including craps. Aside from not addressing fun, which I absolutely won't do....

Of course not, you can't! "I found that strictly making dont pass bets with odds to be a stone cold blast!" "You're an idiot, the best way to play craps is to bet the pass line and buy the 6 and 8!" You want to start an argument that can't be won, there's one way to do it. The fun, which is the driving force that makes us play, is a private thing.

Quote: DeMango

So why are you not on the advanced craps sites?

Please LIST the "advanced craps sites." Thank you. (Can't wait to see this.)

Quote: AlanMendelson

In another thread someone wrote that this is not an advanced craps website:

No you quoted what I wrote, and your claims that I wrote "this is not an advanced craps website" is false. Read again what I wrote.

Quote: Ahigh

This website is geared for the beginner craps player. I can appreciate that. Most questions about craps on this website are about betting systems and basic questions about which bets are best in the game.

Quote: AlanMendelson

I disagree and I want to thank the Wizard for providing what is truly an advanced website for playing and undertanding the game of craps.

So you disagree with the faulty logic conclusion that I said that this is "not an advanced craps website."

Your construction of the concept that I am suggesting that this website is not, as you say "advanced" a word that you introduced yourself is a symptom of the problem with the forum members, not the website itself.

You and others simply make stuff up and try to portray that someone said something that they didn't say so you can disagree with it.

It's ridiculous. I don't think the Wizard is stupid enough to fall for your claim that I suggested that his website was not "advanced" as you put it.

But I also think he would agree that he intends to appeal to the beginner craps player who might fall victim to betting something like, let's just say, a horn high ace-deuce with a $25 pass line.

If there's anything that's not advanced, it's some of the guys who have been playing craps so long that they don't realize how horrible they are at playing the game because they get stuck in a rut of making stupid bets.

Ahigh, you wrote: "This website is geared for the beginner craps player."

I wrote:

Quote: AlanMendelson

In another thread someone wrote that this is not an advanced craps website:

I disagree and I want to thank the Wizard for providing what is truly an advanced website for playing and undertanding the game of craps.

Are you on drugs?

Quote: AlanMendelson

Are you on drugs?

No I'm not. And for what it's worth, I consider you an experienced craps player who still hasn't learned what the Wizard teaches in his ten commandments.

So you can thank him for his website, but you don't seem to be getting the full benefit of it.

Check the ten commandments section and get back to me experienced one.

But good demonstration of the lack of intelligence of the game. You are all about the game and this website, yet you still don't play in a way that the Wizard advocates.

If you truly enjoy the hedge, then cull off your chance to win and just bet the pass for $25 and the don't for $25. You hardly ever lose, and it's very inexpensive to play at a $25 table. You can even take free odds! If you're going to hedge, hedge ALL THE WAY and do it with a LOW EDGE bet, not a prop bet.

Prop bets are for beginners, and people like you who are experienced but never learn.

I told you I hedge my come out bets mainly because I tend to roll outside numbers. With all respect to the Wizard and you I don't tell you how to bet your money. Please don't tell me how to bet mine.

Quote: AlanMendelson

I told you I hedge my come out bets mainly because I tend to roll outside numbers. With all respect to the Wizard and you I don't tell you how to bet your money. Please don't tell me how to bet mine.

I'm not telling you HOW. I'm saying the way that you bet is the way that a beginner would play, and I'm giving you the better way to do it. The four unit crap check and the one unit yo is clearly superior. But also if you do, in fact, want to hedge, just bet both sides! The cost per roll on $25 don't is $0.0975 per roll where the edge on a horn-high ace-deuce is 13.89% of $2 plus 11.11% of $3 = $0.61 per roll. That's an 85% savings in the cost per roll and 30% of the rolls are comeout rolls. You're all about advertising discounts, so it seems like you could key into this one!

This is the ultimate hedge, though because you have to bet odds in order to have a chance to win. You will never win this way, you just get the chance to bet your odds in exchange for paying a unit for 30% of the 12's that get rolled (the ones on the comeout roll).

I stand by my position that this website is geared for beginner players, though. That doesn't mean the website isn't "advanced." You need to figure it out, though, how I can say the website is geared for beginners without culling out the possibility that the website is advanced when it comes to many things, and certainly the accuracy of the math and details.

And of course not hedging gives you a further chance to win. And I differ from the Wizard in that I think that a come bet after a point is established is a hedge, especially if you don't have enough odds bet.

I'd still be interested to know what there is to add about craps that I'm not already saying. I truly am open to suggestions.

Quote: Wizard

I'd still be interested to know what there is to add about craps that I'm not already saying. I truly am open to suggestions.

Details. I've mailed you details and you balked on updating a page of yours about what the field pays.

The details about automatic buys. Lays with commission on the win versus commission up front.

All the details of which casinos offer what bets and so on at least here in Las Vegas.

A place bet on the four and ten according to you is a 6.66% house edge. This glosses over a lot when it comes to how they are treated at 10, 15, and 20 at various casinos here in Vegas. And the buy bets aren't really covered at the same time as the place bets where you cover these edges.

There are plenty of details you don't provide.

You generally aren't a craps player, and your position is generally to gloss over anything that is too fine-grain of a detail to be interesting to you.

That's my perspective. Not a craps-centric website. Just a math-centric one. And that's not a complaint. But you asked.

In this spirit of helping players get the best deal, you might lead them to the Stratosphere because they have 10x odds. But their limits are almost always $10. They pay double on the 12 in the field. All buy bets and lay bets are commission up front not on the win. And the prop bets are 30-for-1 and 15-for-1 instead of 31-for-1 and 16-for-1. AND they generally don't help you if you bet a 6-unit bet for $5.

And if you play crapless craps, 1 out of 3 players doesn't know it's crapless until they have lost money or not won on the front line but set the point as yo.

But from your suggestions to your readers, HEY .. they have 10x odds! All the other details of how they rip off their customers are lost .. in .. the .. DETAILS.

Craps is a game where dealers are trained to rip off new players, basically. Knowing to take odds is great, but dealers are twisting arms out there on the tables if you go and watch. I think you would want to have more information to combat not just the math, but the persuasion of those who aim to separate you from your cash.

If you are truly interested, go and watch some craps play at the Stratosphere and try to talk some sense into some players making stupid bets over there. They are a different breed of uninformed. Guys betting the boxcars every roll on a crapless table when they could buy it and have no clue! And the tourist, often times, are just mimicking the locals who come up to play.

But hey .. 10x odds! YAY. Watch how many people bet more than 345x odds. Maybe 1 out of 50 or less.

Just guessing, the Strat's holds are probably as high as 20% .. which is HUGE for a $10 table. I will admit it is just a GUESS, and of course nobody could tell you. But most places with holds over 15% are $3 tables rounding down on 50% of the pays on place bets.

That's another detail you could spend more time on, is the danger of betting $3 bets and having the casino round down.

There is more than one casino in Vegas that pays $3.50 for a $3 place bet on the six or the eight. Most people know Joker's Wild is one, but I'm curious if you could name another (or anyone else on this forum).

The details...

"craps is a game where dealers are trained to rip off players"

100% bullshit.

Quote: ontariodealer

"craps is a game where dealers are trained to rip off players"

100% bullshit.

Dealers just call the numbers and pay the winners. Overall we all know the game can never be beat. too many things work against you unless you ride the wave with the skilled Dice setters there is absolutely no way to beat this game. Give it up.

Quote: Ahigh

There is more than one casino in Vegas that pays $3.50 for a $3 place bet on the six or the eight. Most people know Joker's Wild is one, but I'm curious if you could name another (or anyone else on this forum).

El Cortez.

Thanks for the suggestions. Yes, if that is what you're looking for then I don't have an advanced craps site. While this site indicates the odds every casino pays, I don't have time to keep track of the field, hop, and buy bets. I also don't get into how to take advantage of getting pays rounded up to the nearest dollar.

However, I think a player not backing up come bets with odds, meanwhile betting the hard ways, could stand to review the basics from time to time.

Not just craps but the video poker page time and time again has saved/made me money. With casinos coming out with new machines with bonus credit pays or funky variations such as Quick Quads it's nice to have one site I can go to which has this consolidated. WoO and VPfree2 is always on my phone since I am in and out of casinos.

It's always nice to be one step of the players and dealers without playing the game since I read the information here.

Quote: Wizard

Thanks for the suggestions. Yes, if that is what you're looking for then I don't have a craps site. While this site indicates the odds everybody pays, I don't have time to keep track of the field, hop, and buy bets. I also don't get into how to take advantage of getting pays rounded up to the nearest dollar.

However, I think a player not backing up come bets with odds, meanwhile betting the hard ways, could stand to review the basics from time to time.

I don't bet the hardways much at all. I put less money on hardways than I tip the dealers.

Yesterday, I put $120 on the line, rolled a four, backed it up with $300 odds and won that on the first roll with a roll that my data says I do 1 in 28.5 instead of 1 in 36. No hardways on that roll.

I'm sure you would say that I got lucky looking at the statistics. But the box man's jaw dropped when he saw the legal shot I rolled to come up with what was on the top of my set for that throw. This was at the Gold Coast's southern most table last night.

Half of the reason I think this site is geared for beginners, as I said, is that you are not a craps player. Beginners ask a lot of basic questions that you have the answers for. You represent that narrow minded thinking that what I am doing is merely luck and nothing else. And that's generally the perspective that your members who play craps have as well.

If you were the type of person who was as interested in craps as I am, you would at least spend more of your time thinking about and defending your position rather than just assuming that you're right because the onus of proof that advantage play is impossible is not something that you have the ability to perform.

Quote: teddys

El Cortez.

This guy is a craps player! Bigger balls than I ever dreamed of having playing this game! And a smart better according to the math as well. Bets on any shooter any table following the Wizard's advice.

And he probably knows more about the details of various craps tables around town that most anyone else who's active on this forum, I would venture to guess.

Quote: Ahigh

If you were the type of person who was as interested in craps as I am, you would at least spend more of your time thinking about and defending your position rather than just assuming that you're right because the onus of proof that advantage play is impossible is not something that you have the ability to perform.

Bwa ha ha!

Yeah, that's right, try to take the Wiz to the woodshed due to his inability to prove AP does not exist at craps.

Wow.

Logic 101: he need NOT prove it is impossible;its proponents bear the burden of proof.

Quote: MrV

Logic 101: he need NOT prove it is impossible;its proponents bear the burden of proof.

I'm not taking him to the woodshed, just calling him out for the fact that he really isn't that interested in a game that, from his perspective, is simpler than I believe that it is.

I don't look into the possibility of UFO's for similar reasons, and I'm not faulting him for being uninterested. I'm just saying that he has the easier job is all. And absolutely he has less data about the details of the game in his head than I do given his relaxed position on being more knowledgeable about the game.

Of course the first time I met him was because he wanted to know what the odds multiple was at the casino where I was playing.

But he wasn't buying in where I was playing. That's the difference.

Quote: Ahigh

proof that advantage play is impossible is not something that you have the ability to perform.

Failure to disprove a premise is not proof of the premise. It is, however, a pretty severe logical fallacy. I would expect someone who works in a corporate-funded research lab to know this.

You cannot disprove the premise that the universe was created by a Flying Spaghetti Monster who created all that we see and all that we feel, nor can you disprove that there is a teapot orbiting the Sun somewhere between here and Mars. But under your logic, failure to disprove implies both must be true. That's plainly ridiculous.

Also, according to your own statistics, you have a +8% edge on any hopping hardway bet, and probably more on the all-day hardways. Yet you never bet them. Your own actions do not support your proclaimed faith in your ability to influence the dice. If I had an 8% edge, I'd be betting it.

Quote: MathExtremist

Failure to disprove a premise is not proof of the premise. It is, however, a pretty severe logical fallacy. I would expect someone who works in a corporate-funded research lab to know this.

That is an interesting statement that you made there. Can I assume that you actually thought I didn't already know this? If so, what logic did you employ to come to that conclusion?

Quote: MathExtremist

Also, according to your own statistics, you have a +8% edge on any hopping hardway bet, and probably more on the all-day hardways. Yet you never bet them. Your own actions do not support your proclaimed faith in your ability to influence the dice. If I had an 8% edge, I'd be betting it.

This is true if and only if you assume that I continue to roll the same distribution of outcomes. Where is the proclaimed faith that you speak of. IE: where do I say that I have proven that I have this edge that you so loosely refer to. I don't think you would believe that 3500 samples of 36 outcomes is enough to prove any edge. And without that belief, you're simply providing bait rather than a sound argument for my not betting hardways more frequently.

SuperRick, for what it's worth, has beliefs similar to the above statements you made there, FWIW.

Here is my post on my website for what I think those "edges" represent that I made more than a month ago after a new member asked what they meant.

http://forum.goodshooter.com/post3174.html?hilit=theory#p3174

SIGH...

Another thread taken over by the false teachings and concepts of the greatest craps payer in the world. As in EVERY other thread on the subject. He knows more about behind the ropes than anyone and craps dealers are trained to rip people off. He knows he has an advantage shot. He is the most knowledgeable about everything. The Wizard doesn't give him enough attention and credit.

When does it end??????



ZCore13

Quote: Zcore13

SIGH...

Another thread taken over by the false teachings and concepts of the greatest craps payer in the world. As in EVERY other thread on the subject. He knows more about behind the ropes than anyone and craps dealers are trained to rip people off. He knows he has an advantage shot. He is the most knowledgeable about everything. The Wizard doesn't give him enough attention and credit.

When does it end??????

I want to know where it ends your chastising of me. And what, exactly, are what you refer to as my "false teachings?" Is it possible that you are making untrue accusations that I am teaching anything that is false?

I generally don't teach anyone anything. I will make corrections when people say things that aren't true. Your false claims above implying that I am teaching people things that are false is one such untrue statement. But feel free to demonstrate that anything that I am "teaching" is false.

What I have learned from you is that you have no problem whatsoever talking outside of your domain of expertise.

This entire thread started off with another member, Mendelson, accusing me of saying that this website is not "advanced." I never used the word advanced in any way shape or form, but Alan claims that I did. I merely stated that the site was geared for a beginner player; and I stand by that.

But you and him share the goal of saying untrue things in specific reference to me and what I am doing in order to attempt smear and slight me personally. And there are others. If your beliefs were founded on a more solid ground, what I had to say on the subject probably wouldn't bother you so much. But the argument of ignorance is one that begins on your side of the fence from my perspective.

Quote: Ahigh

That is an interesting statement that you made there. Can I assume that you actually thought I didn't already know this? If so, what logic did you employ to come to that conclusion?
...
This is true if and only if you assume that I continue to roll the same distribution of outcomes.

When you write things like "I do this outcome 1 in 28.5 rolls" or "you cannot prove advantage play is impossible," it's reasonable to take that at face value to mean what it says. Now you're arguing that you didn't actually mean what you wrote? I've no interest in parsing your circumlocuitous prevarication. You'll have to find another playmate for your word games.

Quote: MathExtremist

You'll have to find another playmate for your word games.

Oh so serious, ME. It's okay we all make mistakes.

Quote: Ahigh

If you were the type of person who was as interested in craps as I am, you would at least spend more of your time thinking about and defending your position rather than just assuming that you're right because the onus of proof that advantage play is impossible is not something that you have the ability to perform.

So the Wizard doesn't have the ability to perform the onus of proof?

Or does that mean he can't understand that the onus is on him to prove something is impossible, and he can't have the ability to prove that Onus?

Clearly you meant something else about this statement. I would spend sometime thinking about what you write rather than about craps, sometimes.

Quote: thecesspit

So the Wizard doesn't have the ability to perform the onus of proof?

Or does that mean he can't understand that the onus is on him to prove something is impossible, and he can't have the ability to prove that Onus?

Clearly you meant something else about this statement. I would spend sometime thinking about what you write rather than about craps, sometimes.

That's one of his problems. WAY too much talk. For example:

He said he would not be coming back to this forum - He did
He said he was going to stop posting his session results due to personally safety issues - He still posts them
He said he was going to stop gambling for a while and focus on his project - He didn't
He said he wasn't going to gamble this past weekend because he had another financial commitments - He gambled the next day (Saturday)
He says he is a researcher and is just seeing if DC/DI is possible - But he insists he is the best player he has ever known and has an advantage when he shoots

He's also criticized the Wiz himself, this site and many of the regular contributers. Nobody knows and can understand what he is doing. He is an advanced player while this site is mostly for beginners.

Ridiculous!


ZCore13

The Wizard chose to take the side of the skeptic, and from my perspective he is the #1 skeptic. Conversely, I am not the #1 proponent that AP is possible. I have stated, and in case it's not obvious already, it's not proven to be possible and therefore I don't have a belief that it's possible without that proof.

But similarly, there is no, nor can there ever be, a proof that it's impossible. This is where this is no onus of responsibility to prove that it's impossible: because it can't be done.

All I'm saying is that proving it's possible is hard work, and the other side, the skeptical side, has nothing to do but say, "meh."

Quote: Zcore13

That's one of his problems. WAY too much talk. For example:

He said he would not be coming back to this forum - He did
He said he was going to stop posting his session results due to personally safety issues - He still posts them
He said he was going to stop gambling for a while and focus on his project - He didn't
He said he wasn't going to gamble this past weekend because he had another financial commitments - He gambled the next day (Saturday)
He says he is a researcher and is just seeing if DC/DI is possible - But he insists he is the best player he has ever known and has an advantage when he shoots.

These are all valid points. Zcore is absolutely an expert in this area since he gets to see so many people lose so much money and lie to themselves in the process about their chances to win. Observing people lose money is what he does, and that is his area of expertise.

I am a lifetime loser at the game of craps, and contrary to many claims to the contrary, I have NEVER STATED THAT I AM AN AP CRAPS PLAYER.

EVER

I lost over $500 in the last 48 hours playing craps, which is a significant portion of my lifetime losses.

I do not encourage anyone to believe that they have a player edge in the game, nor do I teach anything professionally (as in for a fee).

I do enjoy gambling more than I enjoy attempting to take advantage of my investigation into the possibility of AP play.

I do provide services of analyzing roll data; but I would hardly consider that teaching.

I charge nothing for anything I do for anyone related to the game of craps. Anything that I teach is generally about the math or maybe the little details that others don't know, and I agree with the wizard that there isn't much to know for most folks.

Quote: Ahigh

The Wizard chose to take the side of the skeptic, and from my perspective he is the #1 skeptic. Conversely, I am not the #1 proponent that AP is possible.

Since when are you NOT the #1 proponent that not only is AP possible but you are the greatest? Isn't everything you do proof of your great AP skills or are you now doubting your own skills?

Quote: Ahigh

I am a lifetime loser at the game of craps, and contrary to many claims to the contrary, I have NEVER STATED THAT I AM AN AP CRAPS PLAYER.

EVER

I lost over $500 in the last 48 hours playing craps, which is a significant portion of my lifetime losses.

I do not encourage anyone to believe that they have a player edge in the game, nor do I teach anything professionally (as in for a fee).

But now that you made that clear there is no reason to listen to you. You don't win. You are not an AP craps player. OK -- you're like the rest of us. Thanks for your contributions.

Quote: AlanMendelson

Since when are you NOT the #1 proponent that not only is AP possible but you are the greatest? Isn't everything you do proof of your great AP skills or are you now doubting your own skills?

Quote: Ahigh

I am a lifetime loser at the game of craps, and contrary to many claims to the contrary, I have NEVER STATED THAT I AM AN AP CRAPS PLAYER.

EVER

I lost over $500 in the last 48 hours playing craps, which is a significant portion of my lifetime losses.

I do not encourage anyone to believe that they have a player edge in the game, nor do I teach anything professionally (as in for a fee).

But now that you made that clear there is no reason to listen to you. You don't win. You are not an AP craps player. OK -- you're like the rest of us. Thanks for your contributions.

No you've made things up in your mind about this apparently. What I said was I was the greatest of those who have the meat to demonstrate what they can accomplish. That's mostly singling myself out for providing the data. What the Wizard said is that the folks who say they have a shot have no "meat" of evidence of how well they can shoot. I do have that. And I have a platform to provide more of that data.

What I have done in my 3500 recorded rolls is quite possibly just luck. But as I begin recording rolls again, we shall soon see if it is more likely luck or something else.

I hope it is luck myself, because then I can just bet on everyone's shot instead of spending so much time trying to get the ideal table and conditions for me to bet.

I'm *not* going to stop gambling. And I may never become a lifetime winner at the game.

But I still maintain that I'm the best shooter with the evidence to prove exactly how good I am, both now and in the future. Even if I didn't record another roll for my life, there's a good chance nobody will ever do more work to provide the data for exactly what they can accomplish.

As I record more rolls, the chances that I have 3500 lucky rolls will fade away. After enough rolls, there is no question if it is luck or not what happened in the first 3500 rolls. But if I ever get to 1,000,000 rolls recorded, there will be a mountain of evidence suggesting that it's not just luck if in fact a proof is made.

Quote: Ahigh

The Wizard chose to take the side of the skeptic, and from my perspective he is the #1 skeptic. Conversely, I am not the #1 proponent that AP is possible. I have stated, and in case it's not obvious already, it's not proven to be possible and therefore I don't have a belief that it's possible without that proof.

I don't think the Wizard is the Number One skeptic at all... I don't think he takes enough interest in the issue to be skeptical inquirer into the issue. A real skeptic has a deep interest in the field of study, and will propose repeatable, scientific tests on the matter.

Quote: thecesspit

I don't think the Wizard is the Number One skeptic at all... I don't think he takes enough interest in the issue to be skeptical inquirer into the issue. A real skeptic has a deep interest in the field of study, and will propose repeatable, scientific tests on the matter.

Uh huh..

Quote: TheWizard

"Well, let's just say that when it comes to that, I'm from Missouri. Show me. Let's see some evidence. He's a nice man. I hate to say anything bad about him, BUT before I came on the show today. I went on his website again, looking for something .. some MEAT. You know? To show me, any kind of evidence that the Golden Touch Seminar was worth the money. That it was, like I said a legitimate advantage play, and I came up with nothing. You know, he, you know, in his letters from students, you know, tons of them say I really enjoyed the class, the instructors were very helpful, it improved my game. But there was no hard evidence. You know. There was no record keeping of results. No hard numbers at all to substantiate that there was anything to this.

And it's not just this website, the whole subject in general strikes me as like a betting system. And every time someone tells me there's some new fad like the latest betting system, there's always someone to say I made a ton of money doing this, but there's going to be all this kind of hype, but there's never any kind of math to back it up."

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/craps/15425-ahighs-autorecord-software/3/#post278840

You show someone else besides the Wizard who has volunteered to represent the skeptics side of the argument and I will rescind me claim. Until then, he represents the skeptics. Period. I will also accept the Wizard saying he is not the person to volunteer to represent the skeptics, but if you listen to the whole show referenced below, I think you might have to change your position.

http://www.bobdancer.com/mp3/gwae110311.mp3

Listen starting at 8:24.

Quote: TheWizard

I thought that the skeptics side deserved to be heard. And I availed myself to be that skeptic. And I just wanted to, shall we say, "shed some light on the other side."

Quote: Ahigh

This guy is a craps player! Bigger balls than I ever dreamed of having playing this game! And a smart better according to the math as well. Bets on any shooter any table following the Wizard's advice.

And he probably knows more about the details of various craps tables around town that most anyone else who's active on this forum, I would venture to guess.

Thanks, High-T. Unfortunately (fortunately?), the Wizard trained me too well. I had my biggest negative variance swing in any game on craps over about a three month period. It busted my bankroll and put me on full tilt.

Still love the game, though.

Quote: Ahigh

Uh huh..

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/craps/15425-ahighs-autorecord-software/3/#post278840

So that makes him the 'single biggest skeptic'? Really? One statement saying "not going to look too hard at this, there's no Math there to support it"?

It's a very good statement, I'll agree. But #1 skeptic? Oooo-kay. James Randi is the number one skeptic of ESP, because he spends time investgating it. The Wizard doesn't spend all his time looking at Craps dice influencing, because there's nothing (in his mind) to look at.

Quote: thecesspit

So that makes him the 'single biggest skeptic'? Really? One statement saying "not going to look too hard at this, there's no Math there to support it"?

It's a very good statement, I'll agree. But #1 skeptic? Oooo-kay. James Randi is the number one skeptic of ESP, because he spends time investgating it. The Wizard doesn't spend all his time looking at Craps dice influencing, because there's nothing (in his mind) to look at.

He proclaimed himself to be the skeptic. Listen to the whole show and if you find someone else who proclaims himself to be the skeptic about dice control, let me know. Maybe I could change my mind. But I maintain my position, and I think he's the #1 skeptic unless you can give me a case for someone else being a more prominent self-proclaimed skeptic on the subject.

Start listening at 8:24 and tell me you think there's a bigger more prominent public display of skepticism than the position the Wizard took on this Bob Dancer show.

Quote: Ahigh

He proclaimed himself to be the skeptic. Listen to the whole show and if you find someone else who proclaims himself to be the skeptic about dice control, let me know. Maybe I could change my mind. But I maintain my position, and I think he's the #1 skeptic unless you can give me a case for someone else being a more prominent self-proclaimed skeptic on the subject.

I am a skeptic of dice influence. I'm not claiming to be the #1 skeptic, but I can't think of anyone else who has been saying publicly from the beginning as loud and as often that there isn't the evidence to support belief in it.

This topic is not something I spend a lot of time on because there isn't much out there to debunk. When I was about 10 the kid next door said scientists discovered a beer car on Mars. I was skeptical and asked for evidence. The only thing I got was "George (his older brother) told me."

I've been saying for about ten years, show me any evidence that anybody can beat craps, and all I hear is talk. The only hard data I've seen is the 500-roll Wong/Little Joe experiment, and that was a fraction of the sample size needed to prove the slight level of influence they were claiming.

When it comes to a beer can on mars or the ability to beat craps, I'm suddenly from Missouri, SHOW ME! That is why I suggested to Ahigh that he develop a hypothesis of HOW he can influence the dice, we'll make a friendly wager on whether he can do it, and we'll gather some evidence. I'm eager to have some data to chew on. This topic has been talked to death. It is screaming out for the proponents to back up their claims. The burden of proof is on the other side. Lacking anything convincing they have put on the table, I remain a skeptic. I'm still waiting for evidence of that beer can on mars too.

WAIT NO MORE !

http://wafflinganglican.blogspot.com/2006/01/alien-beer-can-found-on-mars.html

I think that the truth is that in gambling "games " such as Craps and Roulette "Random " rules so that no one can claim certainty . So the Wizard can only give the "Expectation " of an event not it's " Certainty ". Gamblers , in turn, can only make guesses - guesses made haphazardly or with method . Criticism of gambling in a gambling site seems ridiculous .

I will be the #1 skeptic if you need one.

I don't think it exists AT ALL with throws that are legal in any legitimate Casino.

Can a person short throw or kill the dice at the base of the wall or stack the dice and have one die without movement one time? Maybe.
Can they get away with doing it enough to become an AP? No chance.

It's too easy to see what is happening. To be an AP at anything you have to be able to get away with whatever you are doing consistently.

Can someone count cards and get away with it consistently? Yes

Can someone hole card, count side bets, take advantage of high payout VP and rebates/comps, or use collusion to gain an advantage consistently? Yes

Can someone do anything with the dice and do it enough to be considered an AP player or even enough to turn the house edge enough to win more than just what a normal deviation would allow? No

Unless it can be proven (which it has never yet been) AP Craps exists just as much as Bigfoot, Aliens, Elvis is alive, Santa Claus and any other of the thousands of fables we all know.


ZCore13

Quote: Wizard

I am a skeptic of dice influence. I'm not claiming to be the #1 skeptic, but I can't think of anyone else who has been saying publicly from the beginning as loud and as often that there isn't the evidence to support belief in it.

I sit corrected.

Quote:

This topic is not something I spend a lot of time on because there isn't much out there to debunk. When I was about 10 the kid next door said scientists discovered a beer car on Mars. I was skeptical and asked for evidence. The only thing I got was "George (his older brother) told me."

The lack of evidence is... disturbing ;)

Quote: Ahigh

The Wizard chose to take the side of the skeptic, and from my perspective he is the #1 skeptic. Conversely, I am not the #1 proponent that AP is possible. I have stated, and in case it's not obvious already, it's not proven to be possible and therefore I don't have a belief that it's possible without that proof.

But similarly, there is no, nor can there ever be, a proof that it's impossible. This is where this is no onus of responsibility to prove that it's impossible: because it can't be done.

All I'm saying is that proving it's possible is hard work, and the other side, the skeptical side, has nothing to do but say, "meh."

I'm not sure a skeptic chooses sides. Skeptics simply refuse to believe in things for which there is no evidence. Anything that has been proven, someone has done the hard work. If you don't want to do the work, I believe that a skeptic is completely justified in saying, "Meh."

Quote: Mosca

I'm not sure a skeptic chooses sides. Skeptics simply refuse to believe in things for which there is no evidence. Anything that has been proven, someone has done the hard work. If you don't want to do the work, I believe that a skeptic is completely justified in saying, "Meh."

Well, my purpose in fingering the Wizard as the self-appointed skeptic is to have someone who is there to examine evidence and to say "still looks random to me" or "that's enough evidence that I'm not sure" or "wow, that's pretty convincing evidence that you can do it. Let's make sure you videos all look like legal throws or if some of them are short" or whatever else.

This is a lot of work to collect the evidence, and that's what I am still focusing on now: the equipment and process to easily-enough collect the evidence necessary to demonstrate if it's possible to control the dice enough for a player advantage.